2010-11 Player of the Year thread

[Sinant]

I still think LeBron will end up winning the Finals MVP and put him safely at #1, but Wade has been outstanding (Chicago series excluded).

[Sedale Threatt]

I wouldn't put it past him, but he's got a ton of ground to make up.

[Dr Positivity]

I'd still put Lebron ahead of Wade if this keeps up because of the rest of the playoffs. Difference between LBJ and Wade in the conference finals makes up for the difference between them in the Finals. Both killed the Celtics, and Lebron had the dagger shots against both the Celtics and Bulls. I don't know whether to put Dirk 1, 2 or 3 though.

[Sedale Threatt]

I would, too. LeBron is just a better player. One series doesn't change that.

[mopper8]

Yeah but it could move the needle on where Wade lands next to guys like Rose/Howard/Durant/Dirk, no?

[Doctor MJ]

Lol @ "mutant 3 year old" one of your finest Doc

Yeah it's hard...his energy seems boundless but we know he probably can't maintain that (or even muster it from earlier round fatigue) without Lebron playing those minutes.

Their combined scoring average is down but is that attributable pace-reduction at all? Or do the extended minutes make up for that? Cause both as individuals have been very efficient for the series...how much of the declining Oeff is attributable to Bosh's struggles? Especially considering how much we run through him in the high post in the double-elbows sets.

Thanks mop. I'm here all week.

Good point about whether pace reduction or minute extension is the bigger deal here. What we can say for sure is that the Heat's offense hasn't been greatly effective against Dallas. Though obviously it's faired better than the Mavs' offense, I still have trouble being satisfied with it.

Should we just blame the poor OEff on Bosh? Nah. Superstar LeBron doesn't get to say "but I was efficient" as his volume hits the floor and his team's efficiency goes down. If he's able to shoot more effectively in Bosh's stead, he needs to do it.

[DocHoops]

If the Heat win the title, LeBron can't be #1. This has been the worst NBA Finals performance ever for a superstar in their prime. And more than anything else it confirms what many suspected last year, LeBron can not handle the pressure. As stupid and cliche as that sounds, the evidence is there.

All season long I watched Miami and all season long I was convinced it was James team. Now I feel like it can't be, otherwise his team, which has outplayed Dallas in all four games would not be tied 2-2.

[NO-KG-AI]

Was there no pressure in the Chicago series?

[JordansBulls]

Was there no pressure in the Chicago series?

No, because Miami didn't have HCA.

On a serious note we knew Wade would struggle against the Bulls, he hardly ever plays well in Chicago.

[DocHoops]

Was there no pressure in the Chicago series?

Not really, after game one, Miami sort of cruised. LeBron played great, and I figured he would be the same in this series, but his approach isn't even the same. He is hesitant, he disappears, his defense has been worse with guys like Marion and Terry getting off. I just don't get it. I honestly think, if he keeps this up, it will the worst NBA Finals performance by a superstar ever.

[alucryts]

i dont put as much stock in the chicago series as i do the mavs solely for the fact that its the finals. to me this is when everyone is supposed to step up and be at their best. wade to me has been INCREDIBLE. huge huge huge huge huge props to him being fearless on blocking anyone's dunk

[TMACFORMVP]

I hate to fall into the trap of "living in the moment," and judging based on that, but it's difficult not to with the way the playoffs have progressed. With Dirk's ridiculous stretch, I'd currently have him at #2 for POY rankings. Oddly enough, the player I've had #1 for the season was LeBron. But at this current moment, with the way he played last night, and this finals in general, where Wade has looked like the clearly better player, it's hard-er to justify him as the #1 guy. Dirk hasn't been amazing in these finals, but he's been pretty darned good, and it's clear he hasn't got much help, though defensively, the supporting cast has been very good.

I also don't buy the whole "this series is more advantageous for Wade to dominate," argument. It's the finals, Marion is a good, but not great defender, and one who's shown he hasn't had success against LeBron in the past. And yesterday's game wasn't a question about good or bad play, LeBron didn't even show up to play. Honestly, the most surprising stat was the amount of minutes he played in yesterday's game, because I swear I hadn't noticed him for the longest of time on the court. It would be difficult to say the best player in the game took a backseat on the biggest stage, and completely didn't even show up in a few of the games. That being said, I'd expect LeBron to bounce back in these next couple of games.

If the trend were to continue however (meaning LeBron's poor play), and the Heat were to still win the series, it'd be awfully weird to think that I would potentially bump down LeBron in favor of the guy he'd have just beaten in the finals (if I don't already have him bumped down). On the flip side, I think it's an obvious choice for the best player if the Mavericks were to pull off the upset. Again, it seems to follow the theme of the best player on the best team (though not the past two years, as LeBron has clearly been the best player in the NBA), but Dirk's regular season was underrated (career high FG%, record with/without, and overall impact on the Mavericks regular season), then add his all time great playoff run (28/8/3 on 50/50/94 while dominating the fourth quarter), and beating his main competitors, Wade and LeBron (we shouldn't forget about Howard though), then Dirk would HAVE to be #1, IMO. I'd also argue that as gaudy as Dirk's #'s in the playoffs have been, his impact in these playoffs EXCEED those numbers as well - though I wouldn't really know HOW to argue that point specifically.

1. Dirk Nowitzki/LeBron James
2. LeBron James/Dirk Nowitzki
3. Dwyane Wade
4. Dwight Howard
5. Derrick Rose

I hate to think the #1 spot may come down to the next couple of games (where I might still lean Dirk, even if he were to not win the series), but when it's close, and we're talking about a stage like the Finals where both players are going head to head, then it definitely sets up an interesting argument.

[Doctor MJ]

I hate to fall into the trap of "living in the moment," and judging based on that, but it's difficult not to with the way the playoffs have progressed.

Agreed. 2nd year in a row that LeBron's falloff has made everything chaotic. While I still sided with LeBron at #1 last year, this year is a lot rougher. At this point, LeBron will have to come from behind tot take it.

Frankly I find it embarrassing how much of a tizzy this is throwing me in. It's such a small sample size, I don't want to be crazy, but I dismissed the '10 Celtic series as a one time thing and told people they were overreacting to it. While that remains true for some of the stormcrows, we've got ourselves a trend now. I still have zero doubt that LeBron's capable of stellar play on the biggest stage, but he definitely seems prone to going walkabout in a way Wade doesn't.

I find myself asking right now, whose career would I rather have had to this point, LeBron's or Wade's.

[DocHoops]

I hate to fall into the trap of "living in the moment," and judging based on that, but it's difficult not to with the way the playoffs have progressed.

Agreed. 2nd year in a row that LeBron's falloff has made everything chaotic. While I still sided with LeBron at #1 last year, this year is a lot rougher. At this point, LeBron will have to come from behind tot take it.

Frankly I find it embarrassing how much of a tizzy this is throwing me in. It's such a small sample size, I don't want to be crazy, but I dismissed the '10 Celtic series as a one time thing and told people they were overreacting to it. While that remains true for some of the stormcrows, we've got ourselves a trend now. I still have zero doubt that LeBron's capable of stellar play on the biggest stage, but he definitely seems prone to going walkabout in a way Wade doesn't.

I find myself asking right now, whose career would I rather have had to this point, LeBron's or Wade's.

Such is the cruel reality of evaluating the here and now. We don't have the benefit of context and time to allow emotion to settle. I can say this: I KNOW what I am watching is disturbing as a fan of superstars. I am unsettled watching a player with superior physical gifts and no apparent selfishness be reduced to an afterthought or an ancillary foil.

While it is a small sample size, it is the most significant sample imaginable. The regular season is sort of a battle of attrition for most teams and most players. That's the nature of today's NBA culture. LeBron is physically equipped to handle any hurdle provided by fatigue or competition. However the mental aspect of the game (the most crucial aspect as well for a player of his talent) seems to paralyze him. If that's the case, he has no business being #1 in this or any other year. As much as the comparisons to Michael and Magic seem to follow him, perhaps it's Kareem who he is most like. Unquestionably the games best talent, but not the guy you want most as your superstar teammate.

[ronnymac2]

Such is the cruel reality of evaluating the here and now. We don't have the benefit of context and time to allow emotion to settle. I can say this: I KNOW what I am watching is disturbing as a fan of superstars. I am unsettled watching a player with superior physical gifts and no apparent selfishness be reduced to an afterthought or an ancillary foil.

While it is a small sample size, it is the most significant sample imaginable. The regular season is sort of a battle of attrition for most teams and most players. That's the nature of today's NBA culture. LeBron is physically equipped to handle any hurdle provided by fatigue or competition. However the mental aspect of the game (the most crucial aspect as well for a player of his talent) seems to paralyze him. If that's the case, he has no business being #1 in this or any other year. As much as the comparisons to Michael and Magic seem to follow him, perhaps it's Kareem who he is most like. Unquestionably the games best talent, but not the guy you want most as your superstar teammate.

As a fan of LeBron, yet a neutral fan in this year's Finals, I haven't been impressed by James in the NBA Finals.

But there MIGHT be overreaction here.

LeBron may very well be playing disappointing basketball for whatever reason. If Miami was up 3-1, however, you might be hearing a lot more "he's playing a smart, team-oriented game...I knew that unselfishness that was hyped in 2003 would be useful!" and a lot less "he doesn't look energized, he appears to be content letting others do everything on the big stage, he's disinterested, and dare I saw, a cho... (I won't even let this pretend person symbolizing a possible sample population's perception say it)." Granted, LBJ's below average play is a reason why Miami doesn't have a 3-1 lead. My point is that the characterization of his play might be different, simply because of winning and losing.

Maybe I'm wrong though. Again, James isn't playing well in my eyes. He had a great game one, a decent game two, an uninspiring but passable game three, and then combined the worst aspects of games two and three together for game four.


Tomorrow will be interesting for sure.

[mopper8]

Such is the cruel reality of evaluating the here and now. We don't have the benefit of context and time to allow emotion to settle. I can say this: I KNOW what I am watching is disturbing as a fan of superstars. I am unsettled watching a player with superior physical gifts and no apparent selfishness be reduced to an afterthought or an ancillary foil.

While it is a small sample size, it is the most significant sample imaginable. The regular season is sort of a battle of attrition for most teams and most players. That's the nature of today's NBA culture. LeBron is physically equipped to handle any hurdle provided by fatigue or competition. However the mental aspect of the game (the most crucial aspect as well for a player of his talent) seems to paralyze him. If that's the case, he has no business being #1 in this or any other year. As much as the comparisons to Michael and Magic seem to follow him, perhaps it's Kareem who he is most like. Unquestionably the games best talent, but not the guy you want most as your superstar teammate.

As a fan of LeBron, yet a neutral fan in this year's Finals, I haven't been impressed by James in the NBA Finals.

But there MIGHT be overreaction here.

LeBron may very well be playing disappointing basketball for whatever reason. If Miami was up 3-1, however, you might be hearing a lot more "he's playing a smart, team-oriented game...I knew that unselfishness that was hyped in 2003 would be useful!" and a lot less "he doesn't look energized, he appears to be content letting others do everything on the big stage, he's disinterested, and dare I saw, a cho... (I won't even let this pretend person symbolizing a possible sample population's perception say it)." Granted, LBJ's below average play is a reason why Miami doesn't have a 3-1 lead. My point is that the characterization of his play might be different, simply because of winning and losing.

Maybe I'm wrong though. Again, James isn't playing well in my eyes. He had a great game one, a decent game two, an uninspiring but passable game three, and then combined the worst aspects of games two and three together for game four.


Tomorrow will be interesting for sure.

Well it's worth noting that Miami actually had it going pretty good offensively through ~39 minutes of the game. They were shooting a solid %, I think 45, and had only turned the ball over 9 times. Not earth shattering but still effective. They finish up at that rate, rather than closing on 4-13 + 4 to "tear" and they win the game and maybe we are talking about Lebron's "poise" and maturity, to play Jason Kidd for the Heat's offense.

[mysticbb]

Well it's worth noting that Miami actually had it going pretty good offensively through ~39 minutes of the game. They were shooting a solid %, I think 45, and had only turned the ball over 9 times. Not earth shattering but still effective. They finish up at that rate, rather than closing on 4-13 + 4 to "tear" and they win the game and maybe we are talking about Lebron's "poise" and maturity, to play Jason Kidd for the Heat's offense.

Well, don't make the mistake to dismiss the rest of the minutes. Only because some people seem to overrate "clutch" we should not make the mistake to underrate that. James played his worst basketball in three consecutive 4th quarters of the finals.

There is also a very important thing to see: Wade and James are making themself worse during the playoffs. It really shows that their skills are not a good match. When they are both on the court the Heat are worse than when either of those is alone on the court. And it becomes most obvious in the finals for James, who is really ineffective without the ball against the Mavericks zone defense. Wade is better against the zone, but his impact is also much lower despite the good boxscore numbers. In fact when Nowitzki is on the court with Wade the Heat are getting outscored by 8.1 points per 36 minutes, with James it gets even up to 8.8 points. But the difference isn't that huge. Despite the huge difference in terms of boxscore numbers, I would argue that the difference in terms of impact is smaller.

And Nowitzki, if he can keep up his level of impact and play, he has indeed a great case for #1. Until the finals I stand with my ranking I basically had before the playoffs. But seeing how Nowitzki makes such a big difference while neither Wade nor James really had the ability to stop Nowitzki's Mavericks impactwise, makes me rethinking that. Right now I tend to vote:

1. Nowitzki
2. Howard
3. James
4. Wade
5. Rose

There are at least two games left and when the real LeBron James shows up, he can easily take the 1st spot again.

[mopper8]

Well it's worth noting that Miami actually had it going pretty good offensively through ~39 minutes of the game. They were shooting a solid %, I think 45, and had only turned the ball over 9 times. Not earth shattering but still effective. They finish up at that rate, rather than closing on 4-13 + 4 to "tear" and they win the game and maybe we are talking about Lebron's "poise" and maturity, to play Jason Kidd for the Heat's offense.

Well, don't make the mistake to dismiss the rest of the minutes. Only because some people seem to overrate "clutch" we should not make the mistake to underrate that. James played his worst basketball in three consecutive 4th quarters of the finals.

There is also a very important thing to see: Wade and James are making themself worse during the playoffs. It really shows that their skills are not a good match. When they are both on the court the Heat are worse than when either of those is alone on the court. And it becomes most obvious in the finals for James, who is really ineffective without the ball against the Mavericks zone defense. Wade is better against the zone, but his impact is also much lower despite the good boxscore numbers. In fact when Nowitzki is on the court with Wade the Heat are getting outscored by 8.1 points per 36 minutes, with James it gets even up to 8.8 points. But the difference isn't that huge. Despite the huge difference in terms of boxscore numbers, I would argue that the difference in terms of impact is smaller.

And Nowitzki, if he can keep up his level of impact and play, he has indeed a great case for #1. Until the finals I stand with my ranking I basically had before the playoffs. But seeing how Nowitzki makes such a big difference while neither Wade nor James really had the ability to stop Nowitzki's Mavericks impactwise, makes me rethinking that. Right now I tend to vote:

1. Nowitzki
2. Howard
3. James
4. Wade
5. Rose

There are at least two games left and when the real LeBron James shows up, he can easily take the 1st spot again.

I think it's a mistake to put a lot of weight into on/off numbers through 4 games, all against the same team. Forget about sample size, if ever you had collinearity effects it would be in situations like this. Both coaches have very rigid rotations with their superstars and those matchups could be playing as much a role as anything else. Just for example, Its largely agreed upon by just about anyone observing the Heat this playoffs that Mike Bibby has been their worst small, and probably worst player overall. And about half of the minutes Wade and Lebron play together they also play with Bibby. How muc is that impacting their on/off numbers? We don't have nearly a big enough sample size to try to adjust for that either. As a stats guy I'm pretty sure you know this too.

As an aside, I thought this also highlights how everyone had it wrong (and a lot of people continue to have it wrong) about the Heat's lack of depth. In two straight series now Miami has been able to pull away from teams when their stars are on the bench, when the opponent's depth ought to give them a leg up. But of course, Miami doesn't really need a Jason Terry or Jamal Crawford coming off the bench because when Dirk or Rose is on the bench, Miami still has Lebron out there, or Wade and Bosh out there. All they need is a stable of capable role players to fill in around those guys for those stretches and they end up fielding superior second units regardless of what the bench point total is. I've thought this painfully obvious from day 1 and yet somehow we still here about the depth advantage Dallas holds over Miami. It just seems to miss the point.

[mysticbb]

I think it's a mistake to put a lot of weight into on/off numbers through 4 games, all against the same team. Forget about sample size, if ever you had collinearity effects it would be in situations like this. Both coaches have very rigid rotations with their superstars and those matchups could be playing as much a role as anything else. Just for example, Its largely agreed upon by just about anyone observing the Heat this playoffs that Mike Bibby has been their worst small, and probably worst player overall. And about half of the minutes Wade and Lebron play together they also play with Bibby. How muc is that impacting their on/off numbers? We don't have nearly a big enough sample size to try to adjust for that either. As a stats guy I'm pretty sure you know this too.

I'm not just talking about +/- numbers here, I'm also talk about efficiency numbers for BOTH players. They have less production and a lower efficiency when they are both on the court. For James it is 60.5 TS% vs. 55.2 TS% for Wade it is 57.8 TS% vs. 56.9 TS%, both in favor of the time when they are not together on the court. Throughout the playoffs they are +2.5 per 36 when both are playing, they +3.8 and +4.2 respectively when only one plays. During the regular season it was the complete opposite, they were both more efficient when they were together on the court and the Heat had also the better result. The overlapping skill set is showing up in the playoffs much more somehow.

And it is not like we could argue with the "eye-test" here. Honestly, I thought it would be even worse than the numbers are saying.

As an aside, I thought this also highlights how everyone had it wrong (and a lot of people continue to have it wrong) about the Heat's lack of depth. In two straight series now Miami has been able to pull away from teams when their stars are on the bench, when the opponent's depth ought to give them a leg up. But of course, Miami doesn't really need a Jason Terry or Jamal Crawford coming off the bench because when Dirk or Rose is on the bench, Miami still has Lebron out there, or Wade and Bosh out there. All they need is a stable of capable role players to fill in around those guys for those stretches and they end up fielding superior second units regardless of what the bench point total is. I've thought this painfully obvious from day 1 and yet somehow we still here about the depth advantage Dallas holds over Miami. It just seems to miss the point.

When you say "everyone" you for sure doesn't mean me, because I pointed out numerous times that the Heat disadvantage on the bench isn't that big of a factor. When they can use Haslem and Miller they aren't that far away from the rest of the league for the players 4 to 8. And we know in the playoffs the rotation gets shorter and the minutes distribution will be more in favor of the star players anyway. That's why I argued the weak play of the Mavericks support without Nowitzki will have a lesser effect in the playoffs, thus the Mavericks were the favorite in the first round (unlike a lot of people thought). I also had the Heat as the favorites in the East due to that. With James, Wade and Bosh playing more minutes they had a huge advantage over any other team in the East (including the Bulls).

But that all doesn't take away the effect I mentioned. Over the whole playoffs Wade and James are lowering their impact when playing together. The style of play when they are alone (especially with Bosh on the court) is different and they can exploit their matchup advantages more. Neither Wade nor James are exceptional off-the-ball players, that hurts here. And in the series against the Mavericks it shows the most, especially when the Mavericks are using their weird 2-3 matchup zone. Wade can do more against that kind of defense, but in the end with a much lower effect on the game when Nowitzki is in for the Mavericks. The 97.1 ORtg for the Heat when Nowitzki is on the court is awful for so much talent. Their offense is at 108.0 ORtg in all other playoff minutes. And on the other side their defense suffers; 104.6 DRtg vs. 100.8 during the rest of their playoff minutes. Thus we see a swing from +7.2 to -7.5 between the minutes without Nowitzki and with Nowitzki in this years playoffs (and don't think it would be better in the regular season either, 96.7 to 125.7 with Nowitzki playing against them).

Impactwise it seems like Nowitzki is outdoing James and Wade.

[mopper8]

Well, like I said I'm simply not going to put too much stock into such a small sample size, especially when it's all against one team. You're drawing big, theoretical conclusions while acknowledging that the much larger sample size of the regular season shows the exact opposite effect. Meanwhile, 6 of Miami's top 7 5-man units in the playoffs feature Lebron and Wade on the court together, going by adj +/-