Dr Mufasa wrote:As I mentioned, he averaged 7.22 fouls per 40 his last 4 games. 7.2 is still really bad in a 5 foul league and the biggest reason Val can only play 15mpg. So no there is not a drastic difference between including that 3 foul/3 minutes game and leaving it out. The game after that he has 1 in 10 minutes which is one of his least foul prone games. Combined that's 4 in 13 minutes which is a normal number for Val.
Green was a very good athlete, he just had no game except chucking 3s and no head for the game, plus he had little lower body strength. Alexander was always a guy who could jump but not move quickly side to side. And he also had one of the worst feels for the courts I've ever seen. He was SF Thabeet upstairs.
Val averaged 6.2 fouls per 40 in the Lit league this year which was by far the highest number on his team. "Not foul prone" is false. He wasn't *as* foul prone, but he played in a much worse league.
Okay, we've moved over from the crazy "no progress" stance, which is a nice development. Now you claim he's still foul prone, just not as foul prone as you thought.
But you're wrong again. You talk about how 6 fouls per 40 is too much in a "40 minutes league" but nobody plays 40 minutes or anything close to it. That's why I said that standard would mislead you.
Let's see real numbers:
Valanciunas averaged 3 fouls and 20:58 minutes per game. http://bit.ly/lFy2d2
The starting center in their team, the well established veteran Milko Bjelica, averaged 2.8 fouls and 20:28 minutes per game. http://bit.ly/iXM9Tm
And you call this "by far"? C'mon, you're just spinning stuff at this point. It's basically the same fouling rate. This is a negligible difference, basically non-existent. And frankly, if you factor the shots that one and the other contest and their defensive energy - Valanciunas averages 2 blocks per game in teh same time, Bjelica... 0.5 - I'd argue that Valanciunas is actually the less foul-prone of them.
Now that we've settled that the "by far" was bogus, is this at least minimally foul prone? A guy fouling 3 times in 20 minutes? A player whose role is to get on the floor, play hard for 20 minutes or so, sometimes more, sometimes less, be a defensive and rebounding presence, block some shots, intimidate, bring some energy to the game and then go back to the bench? It's not, you only think it is because those numbers would imply foul-proneness for a starting NBA player. But considering his role and the competition, it's not being foul-prone.
Let's look at the centers of the other good team in the Lithuanian league, the one that beat Valanciunas' team in the finals:
Travis Watson - 3.9 fouls/13.7 minutes. This is a 32 years old Euroleague veteran.
Trent Plaisted - 3 fouls/17:45 minutes. A guy with some 3 or 4 years of pro experience.
Marjanovic - 1 foul/10:26 minutes. Another guy who's been a pro for 5 years or so. The only one who fouls at a lower rate than Valanciunas (not by much).
Now factor that he's a 18 years old getting accostumed to the pro-game.
I told you that using weird metrics would end up misleading you.
You talk so much about the how and not the what, and I agree. That's how I see prospects too. It's about TOOLS - Your body talent is a tool, your skill is one, your head is one. If anything I think people (not specifically you) are looking at Jonas' rebounding and scoring adjusted numbers and seeing the what and not the how. It's very impressive Jonas finishes 65-70% of his points at the rim. That doesn't mean he has the athleticism, strength, or lift to be a good finisher in the league. DX loves his pick and roll stats in the EL. How good is he actually at the how and not why of pick and roll play - Setting picks, speed rolling to the basket and finishing, ability to hit the pick and pop (this might be his best in that area). Is he a good pick and roll player for reasons that will translate into the NBA, or because he's a mobile 7 foot 7'6 guy in a league where nobody can matchup with his height and his athleticism weaknesses don't matter, with good hands. Being a good pick and roll player comes down to being good at scoring. If he ask me, a 7 footer who doesn't get off the floor and will be at a strength disadvantage for years, is not set up well to finish and run the pick and roll in the NBA. You need to either be really strong or really explosive to kill it finishing and Val is neither. As you said, it's about the what and not the how. That's exactly why I'm not on the Val bandwagon. Val can put up his 20 and 14 numbers in the EL and get the staticians drooling. If he puts up those stats with a toolset that won't translate to the NBA, it means as much as Ammo's college stats.
The idea that nobody can matchup with Valanciunas height in the Euroleague is absurd. In fact, it was the other way around, Valanciunas struggled quite a bit because he isn't as developed physically as his counterparts were. That's one of the reasons why he fouled so often.
He's a good pick'n'roll player because he sets excellent screens, at the proper angles, with his feet well positioned relatively to the ball-handler, he gets wide and low, he's tough handling the contact, he has great timing rolling off the screen, the fundamentals to know how and when to roll, to which side roll, great hands to catch the passes and a combination of length, body control and soft touch that allows him to convert if he gets the ball (and even if he wasn't a good finisher, that wouldn't make him a non-valuable player in the screenroll game). I also think you underrate his athleticism. Sure, he lacks the explosiveness and the leaping ability of guys like Dwight Howard. But if he had that, and considering his length, hands, fundamentals, touch, motor and work ethic, he'd be the clear number 1 pick in this draft (and in pretty much every other one). not a top-10 one. Anyway, great hands, length, mobility, smarts and fundamentals work everywhere. That's why stats like rebounds translate so well from the Euroleague to the NBA. They do from college but even better from the Euroleague, there aren't teams with 6'6'' short-armed bigs to allow stat padding.
There is no question that Val is foul prone at this point. It's not a death sentence. But it's one more thing he has to fix to go along with his body and his game. If his fouling is a result of poor awareness it's a very hard thing to fix. It also lends to questions like "What if Val needs to play hard and aggressive to put his rebounding and putback numbers?" Val can put up 15 and 11 adjusted in the NBA on high %s and make Hollinger love him, but if he's picking up 3-4 fouls in 15 minutes doing it, his real stats will look like 8 and 6 backup big which is exactly his present role in the Euroleague. Jordan Hill puts up 13, 10 and 1.7 per 36. He can only do it for 15mpg so he's really putting up a 5, 4, 0.7.
Of course he's going to foul too much once he joins the NBA. That's what young bigs of his age do. But teams don't draft players for 1 or 2 seasons. That's why I doubt many of them - or any of them, actually - shares your concern about his foul rate or his strength. He fouls at the rate you'd expect a player of his age/position/type of game to foul and he has the strength you'd expect an European player of his age to have. You don't understand that because you're too superficial.
oh and scouting prospects only by youtube highlights.
