2010-11 Player of the Year thread

[Don Draper]

1. Nowitzki
2. James
3. Howard
4. Wade
5. Rose

This. Lebron was a no show in the biggest stage. He has to get dropped below Dirk.

[kaima]

So far as discussion, either keyed on Nowitzki or where the league is going, the lack of post play -- offensively+defensively -- as an issue in Mavs' series (you could argue for the Lakers, but Pau was done and they were playing against the 4in4 standard of conference or Finals attempts) or throughout the playoffs, is how little post-play mattered this year.

It may be the most striking change I've seen in the time I've watched this league.

I would bet that Stern hopes that this is the new rule rather than an outlier.

Still, it ranks as an unstated but interesting fact that the Mavs' ascension both happened in this environment and that it, truthfully, was a shift that came about because of Chandler.

Does that undermine my point? Perhaps, perhaps not.

It does seem that true post-play, particularly on offense, is near-death.

[ronnymac2]

So far as discussion, either keyed on Nowitzki or where the league is going, the lack of post play -- offensively+defensively -- as an issue in Mavs' series (you could argue for the Lakers, but Pau was done and they were runing against the 4in4 standard of conference or Finals attempts) or throughout the playoffs, is how little post-play mattered this year.

It may be the most striking change I've seen in the time I've watched this league.

I would bet that Stern hopes that this is the new rule rather than an outlier.

Still, it ranks as an unstated but interesting fact that the Mavs' ascension both happened in this environment and that it, truthfully, was a shift that came about because of Chandler.

Does that undermine my point? Perhaps, perhaps not.

It does seem that true post-play, particularly on offense, is near-death.

I think it's an outlier. There were a lot of flawed, incomplete offensive teams this year in the playoffs.

Dwight's peripheral players failed to help him out. If they had produced, you wouldn't have made that post. Nowitzki uses the midpost to perfection, but he isn't the back-to-the-basket low post type you were looking for, correct?

Unfortunately, the league isn't flowing with low post power players. Going with the normal shifts in the league's positional strength throughout history, they have seen a decline.

Shaq's retirement is symbolic perhaps...

[Doctor MJ]

Hey guys, just FYI there will be a separate thread for the actual vote. (I'm not going to go through pages and pages of this old thread)

[ronnymac2]

What a way to end your year, LeBron...


Can anybody theorize why he appeared so passive throughout this series? I'd like an intelligent reason.

A conclusion is failing me at the moment. He ripped Boston and Chicago apart. Boston was a strong defensive team. Chicago had some great defenders to put on James, and they had Thibs, who has designed defenses that have slowed Lebron before. He torched everybody.

Then he faces Dallas, and older Shawn Marion and older Jason Kidd can defend the guy. I think Dallas is underrated defensively, but they aren't that good.

Lebron has been to the Finals before, so it can't be experience. Saying he's traditionally a bad Finals performer doesn't excuse 2011, because he wasn't expected to be in the Finals at such a young age in 2007, and he had no help against a very good Spurs team. That bad performance was excusable.

I can't buy that it's pressure, because what's the difference between four teams being alive in the Conference Finals and two teams being alive in the Finals? He has performed on big stages before.

It just makes no sense to me.




Props to Dirk Nowitzki. He played amazing all playoffs long, proving himself to be a playoff Constant on offense. Fantastic job.

[UDRIH14]

the real mvp didnt win it, but ended up taking home both important trophies

imo if dirk didnt miss the games due to injury, they were on pace to to win the best record in the league and wouldve made a case for mvp regular season....the only reason i couldve think of why the voters didnt vote him for mvp, maybe cause of his choke job in 06 and year after it....

[Doctor MJ]

Can anybody theorize why he appeared so passive throughout this series? I'd like an intelligent reason.

My theory would be organizational uncertainty in a unique situation.

If LeBron's in Cleveland and tasked to "make stuff happen", I don't think there's anything that could make him passive (well short of the one game thing against Boston last year). In Miami however he's trying to play while not ignoring his star teammates. So when Dallas does a quick double team on him, he does teamly thing to do and passes. This contributes to LeBron getting out of the attacking rhythm.

At the same time, Wade remains aggressive and does great things. This makes the offense on the whole less broken in terms of results, but it only makes LeBron more likely to defer.

After missing some shots when he does decide to attack, in comparison to the success of Wade, LeBron becomes increasingly hesitant to attack even when he has the opportunity.

This gets in his head, and he becomes more passive generally.

Crucial to all of this is that things didn't seem that bad to start with. The Heat won 2 of the first 3 games and would have won all 3 if not for losing focus and having bad luck at the end of game 2. When you're making a play as reasonable as passing out of a double team, and your team is winning, it's easy to tell yourself that everything's going according to plan. However, should the tide turn you can find yourself at a loss as to how to get back on track.

[kaima]

I think that's a reasonable response, that doesn't deal with context: why now? LeBron's output in the rest of the playoffs was stellar. Why did he falter so badly in the Finals?

I think that he's a great, great presence beyond his own scoring -- I would normally defend him on the basis of general presence, creation and focused facilitation -- but all of him, simply as the player and skillset presence I've witnessed, seemed to falter with his offensive aggression or creation for himself.

That was the really damning part of this, no matter his stats -- whether pro or con.

He didn't control the games. Which was rather shocking.

He's abilities, tangible and intangible, greatly lacked due to his poor aggression.

[Doctor MJ]

I think that's a reasonable response, that doesn't deal with context: why now? LeBron's output in the rest of the playoffs was stellar. Why did he falter so badly in the Finals?

You talking about my answer? Seemed like I did deal with context. Perhaps you wanted more detail than I gave, but I referred to specific things that happened in the finals.

[kaima]

I think that's a reasonable response, that doesn't deal with context: why now? LeBron's output in the rest of the playoffs was stellar. Why did he falter so badly in the Finals?

You talking about my answer? Seemed like I did deal with context. Perhaps you wanted more detail than I gave, but I referred to specific things that happened in the finals.

My point is context, yes.

My question is, where was the general aggression of the earlier rounds? The idea that defensive gameplanning would take away what he had in earlier rounds is not something that flies on its own.

Were the Mavs a better defensive team than the Celtics or the Bulls? As good? This is context -- broad versus specific -- but the stage LeBron was playing on is its own context; a context that may have been at play in this series.

The point is, then, that it seems LeBron psychologically prostrated himself to Wade, and the moment.

Is that too simple? Perhaps. But as your post argued, this was a factor.

It may be more nebulous, or it may simply be that we agree on specific elements but not their order or primacy in what unfolded.

[mysticbb]

I think his teammates and, particularly, cleverness of team construction are being overlooked. The shooting for this team, matched to the softer rules, amalgamated in a great way with Chandler's addition.

The interesting thing about that is: This team worked in average at their best when Nowitzki was on the court, and didn't work well when he wasn't. Last night the first half was one of the rare exceptions, because Nowitzki was off and didn't play as well as his teammates really went off shooting-wise when he was on the bench. But in the 2nd half we saw the same thing again as usual. Nowitzki on the court made the difference, when he is on the court the spacing and movement for the Mavericks becomes exceptional well. That is the impact of a big who can shoot from the perimeter. When a player can force the opponents most agile and best defensive big to stay around on the perimeter, that player is missing in the middle. And that's what happened when Nowitzki was on the court all season long.

Ask a coach what is important for a good offense and he will tell you proper spacing and movement (ball and player). Everything else will come more easily with that.

Dirk played great. Sure. But I don't see much evidence that he was one of the top 3-5 players from October to June.

Nowitzki led the league in Net+/- and APM until he was injured, he played on a similar level at the end of the season and through the playoffs. Nowitzki finished the season with the highest RAPM of all players and has the highest 2yr APM after the playoffs.
Nowitzki was a top player during the regular season and now again back to his top level during the playoffs. Saying he wasn't and you don't see much evidence is somehow weird, especially when the results are clearly showing Nowitzki's big impact.


Regarding James: He looked mental exhausted to me, especially late in the games during the finals. It looked like as if he ran out of ideas how he can elevate his team. He wasn't getting the best opportunities due to the limited plays of the Heat and their inability to give him the ball in the right spots. The finals also showed his lack of postup game. And offensively I also had the impression that once he made some long shots he felt in love with it and took some bad shots. Yesterday was a good example, when he made his first 4 shots, but after that started chucking 3pt shots.
It also didn't help that neither Wade nor James were really able to play off of each other. The Mavericks packed the middle on the defensive end. They never looked as if they feared the Heat from outside.
On the defensive end they put a lot of effort into their rotating, and I think they "overrotated" in a lot of plays which finally gave the Mavericks the open look. That was not only physcial exhausting, but also mentally.

Another thing I wanted to say: I saw Dwyane Wade playing without much energy in the series against the Bulls. And once the finals started he looked like the best athlete in the world. I honestly have to say that my first thought was PED. No idea why, but I have a hard time remembering a player going from that low of an energy level in one series to that high of an energy level in the next.

[RocketPower23]

Dirk
Dwight
Who cares

It's an odd conflation -- Dirk is NOWitzki because of, well, now. If his team loses in the first round, he likely isn't making any top 5s no matter how well he played.

In past POY threads, the argument was made that a top player eliminated early, especially with big stats, could be argued as an underwhelming presence. It may be a Devil's advocate moment for me, but at the same time I find Dirk and Dwight being placed together as 1 and 2 particularly odd considering season trajectories.

I don't know if that's true. Maybe for the majority people it is, but Dirk had a great regular season and IMO if he didn't get hurt, based on how the Mavs were playing with him, was on his was to his second MVP. Obviously that didn't happen and Dirk kind of got lost in the shuffle because his numbers weren't so gaudy (although this season I wouldn't say anybody put up gaudy numbers, at least not compared to recent seasons). So if the Mavs got knocked out, but Dirk played the type of basketball we saw him play this Playoffs, I would be hard pressed not to put him in the top 5.

In regards to Howard, you could make a case for James and to a slightly lesser extent Wade. However with Howard I felt he had the greatest impact on both ends of the court this year. Coupled with the fact that he did everything he could in the first round against the Hawks, I don't hold it against him. Now with James and Wade, you can't ignore what they did in the first three rounds. Each player's play varied against the teams they faced (James played well against the Sixers and Chicago, Wade played well against Boston) and they played some good basketball. But their play in the Finals to me just can't be understated, especially James although Wade isn't without blame as well. James' play is just puzzling; I didn't expect the Heat to win the series, but I didn't anticipate such a passive James. He played well enough in the first three games, but was a complete no show for the final three games. It was just odd.

[mysticbb]

I don't know if that's true. Maybe for the majority people it is, but Dirk had a great regular season and IMO if he didn't get hurt, based on how the Mavs were playing with him, was on his was to his second MVP. Obviously that didn't happen and Dirk kind of got lost in the shuffle because his numbers weren't so gaudy (although this season I wouldn't say anybody put up gaudy numbers, at least not compared to recent seasons). So if the Mavs got knocked out, but Dirk played the type of basketball we saw him play this Playoffs, I would be hard pressed not to put him in the top 5.

Nowitzki for me was 1 or 2 based on his per minute performance during the regular season, right up there with James and slightly ahead of Howard. But as you mentioned Nowitzki missed games and he didn't contribute as much in the end during the regular season as those two. But the Mavericks also went 55-18 with Nowitzki, they outscored their opponents by 10.4 points per 100 possessions with Nowitzki on the court, got outscored by 5.8 points without him. That is as big of a margin as LeBron James had in 2010. During the playoffs the Mavericks went 16-5, they finished off two opponents on the road, they swept the heavily favored Lakers and all that while they had +10.3 with Nowitzki on the court and -7.2 without him. The Mavericks won their games usually (except of two including game 6 of the finals) when Nowitzki was on the court, not when he wasn't. The Mavericks throughout the year were MUCH better with Nowitzki playing than without him. I described the reason for that already.
So, overall we are getting 71-23 for Nowitzki in 94 games, around +10.4 with him and around -6.0 without him, Nowitzki played 3330 minutes and he didn't play 1624 minutes, that is not a small sample size anymore.

Howard played well in the series against the Hawks, and his teammates were more responsible for the losses than him. Additional to that the Hawks presented a matchup problem for the Magic all season long. If we take their results from the regular season the Hawks had the biggest chance to upset the higher seed of all teams. Thus blaming Howard for that isn't backed up by any means.

[Sedale Threatt]

It's an odd conflation -- Dirk is NOWitzki because of, well, now. If his team loses in the first round, he likely isn't making any top 5s no matter how well he played.

I don't agree with that; he'd have been in plenty of top 5s.

But as for NOWitzki -- why shouldn't he get a huge boost for the playoffs? Not simply because his team won, but because of how he played while his team was winning. Your team makes history, and you have a massive role in that, you deserve credit.

Just like James, who failed to dominate a single game on the biggest stage, deserves to be marked down.

[JordansBulls]

It's an odd conflation -- Dirk is NOWitzki because of, well, now. If his team loses in the first round, he likely isn't making any top 5s no matter how well he played.

I don't agree with that; he'd have been in plenty of top 5s.

But as for NOWitzki -- why shouldn't he get a huge boost for the playoffs? Not simply because his team won, but because of how he played while his team was winning. Your team makes history, and you have a massive role in that, you deserve credit.

Just like James, who failed to dominate a single game on the biggest stage, deserves to be marked down.

And brought the franchise it's only title and not to mention no one even picked them to even get out of round 2.

[Doctor MJ]

I think that's a reasonable response, that doesn't deal with context: why now? LeBron's output in the rest of the playoffs was stellar. Why did he falter so badly in the Finals?

You talking about my answer? Seemed like I did deal with context. Perhaps you wanted more detail than I gave, but I referred to specific things that happened in the finals.

My point is context, yes.

My question is, where was the general aggression of the earlier rounds? The idea that defensive gameplanning would take away what he had in earlier rounds is not something that flies on its own.

Were the Mavs a better defensive team than the Celtics or the Bulls? As good? This is context -- broad versus specific -- but the stage LeBron was playing on is its own context; a context that may have been at play in this series.

The point is, then, that it seems LeBron psychologically prostrated himself to Wade, and the moment.

Is that too simple? Perhaps. But as your post argued, this was a factor.

It may be more nebulous, or it may simply be that we agree on specific elements but not their order or primacy in what unfolded.

I went over a theory that said that LeBron began deferring because it was a logical response to the defense and it seemed to work for the Heat (they could have easily been up 3-0). Wade being hot and LeBron's bricking some shots took it further.

Completely understand if you don't buy that, but it is pretty clearly about the context of the series giving a logical explanation for how LeBron got started in a certain direction.

[Doctor MJ]

It's an odd conflation -- Dirk is NOWitzki because of, well, now. If his team loses in the first round, he likely isn't making any top 5s no matter how well he played.

In past POY threads, the argument was made that a top player eliminated early, especially with big stats, could be argued as an underwhelming presence. It may be a Devil's advocate moment for me, but at the same time I find Dirk and Dwight being placed together as 1 and 2 particularly odd considering season trajectories.

Count me among the few then who had Dirk at #1 on my POY/MVP list for most of the year, and then gave my regular season nod to Dwight after Dirk and the Mavs stumbled.

[Doctor MJ]

But does Nowitzki automatically become number 1? I don't believe so, no.

I think his teammates and, particularly, cleverness of team construction are being overlooked. The shooting for this team, matched to the softer rules, amalgamated in a great way with Chandler's addition.

Basically this is becoming another zero-sum argument on title outcomes.

Dirk played great. Sure. But I don't see much evidence that he was one of the top 3-5 players from October to June.

If the voting must be done now, then I will bow out.

mystic went over the +/- argument.

The more general thing which doesn't get talked about enough is this: How do you factor in team fit when ranking the players on that team? Especially the star.

Anyone who thinks they have an easy answer, I'd love to hear it, but I think you haven't thought it through.

Consider LeBron.

His Cav team last year was literally about as good as his Heat team this year. The Heat team has better talent. What did the Cav team have? Fit. Literally, the Cav team was built with the ability to make use of LeBron's talents such that you could have Mo Williams in place of Dwyane Wade (with the other substitutions), and achieve about the same thing.

I don't think it makes any sense to say "Well, LeBron had good fit on his team in Cleveland, so he wasn't as valuable as you think?" I say the same thing with Dirk.

Now, I get that you can have ensemble casts like the Pistons of a few years ago with such good fit that they win a title even without a clear star, but that's where both common sense and +/- helps matters. This Mav team and its great fit totally disappear without Dirk. He *makes* the fit. For that I think he should be praised.

[ElGee]

My goal has always been who played the best basketball that year. Sometimes, due to circumstance outside of that player's control, the fit won't be as good and he nor the team will look better because of it.

Consider the difference between single load-bearers in an offense and multiple ones.

Monarchy: (Pun Intended) A team relies on one guy to carry the load. He is basically the only primary player capable of shot creation (his own, or others).

Oligarchy: A team features multiple players who can create their own shot or others.


--
This divide is common since expansion/merger. Some stars end up with great teammates and established roles/systems. Others are left with barely suitable players and constantly changing pieces.

The classic example I always use is Allen Iverson. Derrick Rose fits the same bill. And LeBron played that role on offense in Cleveland and the Cavs had elite offenses. It's a testament to LeBron in that role.

In Miami, he switched to an Oligarchy. The results are then a little different.

Now, if James had a more well-rounded skill set, it might not matter. Ideally, the best of the best can do well in both settings. But here is where fit comes into play. Wade isn't a good spot-up shooter. James himself isn't either. (I wonder what the difference between his contested 3's and open 3's are, as it can't be large.) Now, that's not to say they can't complement *each other* (this has been analyzed in great detail), only that:

(1) The offense will be more effective with other suitable pieces around them (not Joel Anthony and Mike Bibby shooting 28%.)

(2) There will be times James is less effective because Wade will assume his role (redundancy)

I could argue it's the same thing that happened to Steve Nash in Dallas. Maybe the same thing that would happen to Magic Johnson (or did before 1984?) if he didn't have the ball constantly.

To me, that new setting and fatigue are perfectly valid explanations for what happened with James in the Finals. His load decreased slightly while Wade's increased. That, good Dallas defense, poor shooting and some good team performances never demanded a change. Maybe it was too late for a change. There were a few moments each game that he came off a screen and had a chance to attack, but in his defense, when he actually DID in those games, the results were bad.

James (correctly?) is a player with a history of undershooting when he's not shooting well. He looked like a guy to me without confidence in his outside shot, despite torching Boston and Chicago with some of those shots. When the shot is not opening up the drive -- and quick open shots are there for teammates -- it's not the worst "trap" to fall into.

Not saying he played well in the Finals -- his defense was a much bigger issue than his offense -- I just think there are explanations for what transpired besides this "See! See! There is Something fundamentally wrong with James" knee-jerk reaction.

And as far as the 25-30 minutes of crunch time futility, I'm not going to revamp my estimation of a player who has dominated the category for years. People are aware that Kobe Bryant shot 28% while averaging 1.4 ast/36 in the 4th quarters of last year's Finals, right?

[Sedale Threatt]

James (correctly?) is a player with a history of undershooting when he's not shooting well. He looked like a guy to me without confidence in his outside shot, despite torching Boston and Chicago with some of those shots. When the shot is not opening up the drive -- and quick open shots are there for teammates -- it's not the worst "trap" to fall into.

It's not. In certain circumstances, it would absolutely be the smart thing to do.

But if you're going to scale back in a pretty critical area, you've got to find a way to impact the game in other areas. This, to me, is perhaps LeBron's biggest failing -- he doesn't seem to have much else to fall back on if Plan A isn't working. It's even worse considering what a fabulous all-around player he is.

Shot isn't falling -- OK, get into the post, at least. Do something.

I get the fact that he and Wade overlap; that's an issue that's probably going to raise its head throughout their partnership. But to simply fade into the background like he did, and not dominate a single Finals game, simply isn't acceptable for a player of his caliber.

As you touched on, he's been in the NBA for nearly a decade now, MORE than enough time to develop some credible counters to whatever opposing teams and circumstances throw at him. He hasn't, and that's on him.

I certainly don't buy fatigue as a legitimate excuse. I know he's played a ton of minutes. But he's 26 years old, and it's the Finals. Suck that isht up.