Lather me with blather -- DRAFT thread 4

[Dat2U]

Kawhi Leonard may have a 10 year NBA career but he doesn't look like a guy that's going to be a starting SF in this league. His one NBA skill may be rebounding. Congrats, Dominic McGuire can rebound too.

Just to clear this up, Leonard is a MUCH better rebounder than McGuire. More than 2 boards per/40 (and Mcguire was 2 years older when he posted his best numbers). That's actually a large gap. Comparing them at the same age, Leonard pulled down 4.5 more boards/40, and is TRB% was 13% higher, which is officially ridiculous.

Shoot down his, er, shooting all you want. But let's not compare him to McGuire anymore... it's lazy and wrong. They're different players physically, in NBA position, and in their skillset.

Comparing McGuire & Leonard wasn't my intention but whatever, I'll bite. So Leonard is a better rebounder, great. How does that make their NBA position & skillset different?

McGuire was regarded as having good length & athleticism as a SF coming into the league. Leonard might be longer and have bigger hands but I don't think they are totally different physically.

Both were marginal but effective ball-handlers & passers on the college level with suspect jumpers.

Leonard might have more potential & is younger but I think they are comparable. So I guess based on what your saying it would probably be just as lazy to compare Leonard to Marion or Gerald Wallace?

[dobrojim]

so we should draft great 3 pt shooters? That was a huge
part of DAL's formula for winning. Not saying you're right
or wrong. Playin' devils advocate.

Is trying to copy what ever it was that the last champion
did to win akin to re-fighting the last war?

[Ruzious]

I don't think passing and scoring can be considered an advantage for either - and it wouldn't surprise me to see Leonard slide. I think Leonard's advantages are in his wingspan and quickness. While Singleton's an outstanding defender, I think he got a little top-heavy, and I think that could hurt him defending quicker 3's. Unless he loses weight and adds quickness, he might end up being better at defending 4's. Singleton's injury - to me - really cost him, as he lost momentum in improving his game.

RE: passing, Singleton gets 1.6 assists and 2.9 turnovers. That's terrible.

Leonard gets 3.2 assists and 2.7 turnovers. That's double the assists, with less overall turnovers. Passing is strongly in Kawhi's favor.

Scoring, I agree, could be a wash. They both suck at it, and both were asked to do more than they should have.

You can't just look at the college stats with assists. It looks like both of them are too to prone. Ya gotta look at the teams. Singleton played on a team with no shooters. They got by strictly by being a great defensive team. But I'll agree that Singleton has had issues with trying to do more than he was capable of - thinking he was going to be the next Scottie Pippen. I don't think either of these guys have a rep for being good passers.

[Illuminaire]

A few others have made the same comparison, Dat. I wasn't really picking on you there - sorry if it seemed that way.

To me, that comparison is more an emotional one (Dom sucked, so will Leonard!) than factual one. And yes, comparing him to Wallace or Marion is just as lazy; he lacks the vertical explosion those guys had, and which very much defined their games as young players.

McGuire never had the ball handling or foot speed to be a SF, in addition to being a suspect playmaker (negative A/TO ration for his entire career). Leonard has the speed and necessary playmaking ability, and half the ball handling. (His off-hand needs work)

I guess what it comes down to, for me, is that McGuire was always a bad tweener with question marks. Too slow to play SF, too small to play PF. Leonard is a definite three who may or may not learn to shoot.

I'll note that my optimism regarding Leonard is a) based on his FT% and the testimony of scouts saying that both his form and accuracy are greatly improved in workouts, and b) that we'd trade down to get him AND another asset.

[Illuminaire]

You can't just look at the college stats with assists. It looks like both of them are too to prone. Ya gotta look at the teams. Singleton played on a team with no shooters. They got by strictly by being a great defensive team. But I'll agree that Singleton has had issues with trying to do more than he was capable of - thinking he was going to be the next Scottie Pippen. I don't think either of these guys have a rep for being good passers.

SDSU had a pair of good spot-up shooters, but they were low volume, and there were very few play makers at all on that team.

Team offense looks like a wash to me, and having literally double the assists/40 is kind of significant.

Edit: Just checked. They had eerily similar teams. Almost the same exact number of 3's made and attempted, similar ratios on 2-pt FGs, similar assist numbers for teammates, etc...

[Ruzious]

You can't just look at the college stats with assists. It looks like both of them are too to prone. Ya gotta look at the teams. Singleton played on a team with no shooters. They got by strictly by being a great defensive team. But I'll agree that Singleton has had issues with trying to do more than he was capable of - thinking he was going to be the next Scottie Pippen. I don't think either of these guys have a rep for being good passers.

SDSU had a pair of good spot-up shooters, but they were low volume, and there were very few play makers at all on that team.

Team offense looks like a wash to me, and having literally double the assists/40 is kind of significant.

That's 2 more spot-up shooters than FlaSt had. I could be wrong, but I don't think the difference in their passing ability is an issue.

[Dat2U]

I don't know dick about Tristan Thompson. However, I'm leery of this need to acquire a "low post defender" up at 6. Dallas just won the NBA title. Their top 3 mpg players were Dirk, Terry and Caron Butler. In the finals, they started 38 year-old Jason Kidd and 5'9 JJ Barea!

Yes, Tyson Chandler and Haywood are beasts in the middle. Yes, while nowhere near as atheltic as he once was, Marion is still a great defender.

But I am more and more convinced that great team defense is just that -- and that you don't need great individual defenders who can "shut their man down" to be a good defensive team.

Athleticism is nice, sure. But give me smart and team oriented guys and a good defensive coach/scheme over supposed great one-on-one defenders.

I wouldn't buy too much stock in the Dallas plan. Personally I think it was a matter of timing and LeBron either choking like a dog or throwing the series (I'm not necessarily accusing LeBron but that's what it looked like to me).

Dallas winning is a fluke to me. It was just a perfect year. The Lakers (and Kobe's) descent. OKC being too young. Boston being too old. Dallas could have easily lost in the first round to Portland and no one would be touting the merits of what they did with that roster.

But back to your point...

Low post defenders & dynamic perimeter defenders (especially at SF) are still crucial to postseason success IMO. It's not just about having a guy to shut their man down but having guys that want and/or are willing to defend. Kidd, Marion, Haywood, Chandler, Stevenson all want or are willing to defend. Those guys are wired for defense. You can get away with having a Barea or Nowitzki if you surround them with guys wired for defense. Tristan Thompson is wired to defend. Chris Singleton is wired to defend. We don't have enough of those guys on our roster. I see no drawbacks from seeking to add guys like that to our roster.

[Ruzious]

Just wondering - what was Jason Terry wired for?

[Illuminaire]

That's 2 more spot-up shooters than FlaSt had. I could be wrong, but I don't think the difference in their passing ability is an issue.

You may have missed my edit, but I checked the team stats. FSU and SDSU had almost the exact same number of threes attempted and made. Most of their other stats were also eerily similar.

I could be wrong too. We're all shooting in the dark on this, mostly. I will say that the statistical difference in their passing abilities is too large to just ignore and say it's a wash. You can probably say the same thing about Singleton's defensive impact, though.

[Dat2U]

Just wondering - what was Jason Terry wired for?

Stepping up in the fourth quarter and hitting big shots. Even though Dallas didn't have a 2nd star, Terry would do his best imitation of one late in games.

If anything, Dallas' backcourt did show that a smallish backcourt can win games if you surround them with guys willing to defend.

I remember about a month ago I said a John Wall/Kemba Walker backcourt could work much like the Kidd/Terry backcourt. Someone responded with, "when has the Kidd/Terry backcourt ever won anything?".

[LyricalRico]

I remember about a month ago I said a John Wall/Kemba Walker backcourt could work much like the Kidd/Terry backcourt. Someone responded with, "when has the Kidd/Terry backcourt ever won anything?".

Maybe, but I'm not sure. Defensively, Kidd has the size and saavy to effectively defend big guards. Maybe Wall really is still growing and could have the size, but I don't see Wall effectively defending stud wing players. Maybe Walker is better than Terry, but without being able to defend big guards they could essentially be GSW.

Even offensively, at this point in his career Kidd is not a penetrator. He was never a "shooter", but in years past he could attack the basket for either a layup, or foul, or a dish to an open teammate. Would Terry have meshed just as well with a younger Jason Kidd? Or did the combo work now because Kidd is now just a guy who directs the offense and shoots open 3's?

Finally, Terry isn't a starter. That might be the biggest key IMO. If we did acquire Kemba Walker, I'd expect him to fill the same role. But the Mavs traded for Terry to be their 6th man. I don't think they'd be spending a high lotto pick on a similar player. At 18? Sure, but not at 6.

[Ruzious]

Just wondering - what was Jason Terry wired for?

Stepping up in the fourth quarter and hitting big shots. Even though Dallas didn't have a 2nd star, Terry would do his best imitation of one late in games.

If anything, Dallas' backcourt did show that a smallish backcourt can win games if you surround them with guys willing to defend.

I remember about a month ago I said a John Wall/Kemba Walker backcourt could work much like the Kidd/Terry backcourt. Someone responded with, "when has the Kidd/Terry backcourt ever won anything?".

Ah, the proverbial "somebody". Must be the same somebody as the Big Pecher fan?

Kidd actually is built more like a 2 than a 1, and Terry's not tiny. They work so well, partly because they both knock down 3's off the pass. I'm not sure if EITHER Wall or Walker will be decent catch and shoot 3 point shooters - much less as good as Kidd and Terry.

[Ruzious]

That's 2 more spot-up shooters than FlaSt had. I could be wrong, but I don't think the difference in their passing ability is an issue.

You may have missed my edit, but I checked the team stats. FSU and SDSU had almost the exact same number of threes attempted and made. Most of their other stats were also eerily similar.

I could be wrong too. We're all shooting in the dark on this, mostly. I will say that the statistical difference in their passing abilities is too large to just ignore and say it's a wash. You can probably say the same thing about Singleton's defensive impact, though.

Fair enough - it's a small disagreement. Fwiw, FSU's overall shooting was 43.5 vs. SDSU's 46.3.

[Dat2U]

I've got a great memory Ruz but damn, I can't remember every single post made on this board and if I did then something is really wrong with me.

I do however remember you extolling the virtues of Randy Foye while consistently dogging the performance of Steph Curry so I guess I remember some posts. lol

Wall/Walker might not replicate Kidd/Terry on the floor but they don't need to. Wall brings a slashing aspect and the ability to draw fouls that Kidd no longer has. Kidd was actually a worst jump shooter than Wall when he initially entered the league so Wall certainly can develop some range. Wall also should be a much better defender in time. Kemba is a cold blooded scorer in the Terry mold. I think those two could have a lot of success together. Crawford could play the Barea role as he's more effective with the ball in his hands. Kemba played off the ball a ton in college, especially this past season. I think it could work if you add a perimeter defender in the Tony Allen/DeShawn Stevenson mold for 15-20 minutes a night.

[Wizardspride]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2011/6/15 ... s#comments

Chad Ford's Latest NBA Mock Draft Has Wizards Taking Enes Kanter

Chad Ford just came out with his latest NBA Mock Draft, and in a bit of a stunner, he too has Enes Kanter falling into the Wizards' lap at No. 6. Here's his explanation:

The Wizards know they aren't taking a point guard -- not with John Wall in the fold. So the questions are: Who's the best player on the board and what do they need? The Wizards are very high on Vesely, but in this mock he's off the board.

Kawhi Leonard is an option. He brings toughness, defense and versatility to a team that can use all three attributes. But the Wizards are really looking for rebounding help up front and Kanter is a very good fit here. He's tough, he isn't afraid to be physical and he has good size. Tristan Thompson is a dark horse here as well.

Ford has Jonas Valanciunas going No. 4 to the Cavaliers, because he's hearing the Cavaliers are "cooling" on Kanter. He then has the Raptors taking Jan Vesely at No. 5. As many of you know, Draft Express has been pegging Kanter to D.C. for a while now.

This seems like a dream scenario of sorts, to be honest. It's also a bit surprising to me because from what I understand, Kanter is very much in play for Minnesota at No. 2, and dropping to No. 6 is a hard fall. But Ford definitely knows more than me, so who knows

.

[LyricalRico]

Holy cow! Vesely to the Raps?! When they have a gaping hole at C and need PG of the future?!?! If that happens, I draft Kanter at 6 and immediately call TOR to offer Blatche for Klieza and a 2nd. Immediately!

[fishercob]

I don't know dick about Tristan Thompson. However, I'm leery of this need to acquire a "low post defender" up at 6. Dallas just won the NBA title. Their top 3 mpg players were Dirk, Terry and Caron Butler. In the finals, they started 38 year-old Jason Kidd and 5'9 JJ Barea!

Yes, Tyson Chandler and Haywood are beasts in the middle. Yes, while nowhere near as atheltic as he once was, Marion is still a great defender.

But I am more and more convinced that great team defense is just that -- and that you don't need great individual defenders who can "shut their man down" to be a good defensive team.

Athleticism is nice, sure. But give me smart and team oriented guys and a good defensive coach/scheme over supposed great one-on-one defenders.

I wouldn't buy too much stock in the Dallas plan. Personally I think it was a matter of timing and LeBron either choking like a dog or throwing the series (I'm not necessarily accusing LeBron but that's what it looked like to me).

Dallas winning is a fluke to me. It was just a perfect year. The Lakers (and Kobe's) descent. OKC being too young. Boston being too old. Dallas could have easily lost in the first round to Portland and no one would be touting the merits of what they did with that roster.

But back to your point...

Low post defenders & dynamic perimeter defenders (especially at SF) are still crucial to postseason success IMO. It's not just about having a guy to shut their man down but having guys that want and/or are willing to defend. Kidd, Marion, Haywood, Chandler, Stevenson all want or are willing to defend. Those guys are wired for defense. You can get away with having a Barea or Nowitzki if you surround them with guys wired for defense. Tristan Thompson is wired to defend. Chris Singleton is wired to defend. We don't have enough of those guys on our roster. I see no drawbacks from seeking to add guys like that to our roster.

A fluke. Wow. They swept the Lakers and beat the Heat in 6. Not sure how a 7-game series can give a fluke result -- especially when their opposition had no major injuries.

But maybe it is a fluke, or to put it differently, maybe things just fell into place for them this year. The ball bounced their way. That's the blueprint and what Ted is saying he wants to do -- build a team that wins a lot of games and goes to the playoffs every year, and one or two years things go your way and you win the whole thing. Seems like a very viable strategy to me, though most internet GM's will term anything short of landing Dwight Howard and the next MJ a failure.

I agree that you need guys wired for defense. You gotta want it, take pride in stopping the other team and be smart. Teams force misses by playing as a functional unit. Hell, Philly was 8th in defense and got big minutes from the likes of Brand, Spencer Hawes, Lou Williams, and Jodie Meeks.

But by that logic, I don't see why Tristan Thompson is an acceptable pick at 6, but that Leonard and Vesely are terrible. If a guy's primary contribution is going to be his D, then those guys seem viable prospects -- as they're both reportedly, smart, high motor, character guys.

[Ruzious]

I've got a great memory Ruz but damn, I can't remember every single post made on this board and if I did then something is really wrong with me.

I do however remember you extolling the virtues of Randy Foye while consistently dogging the performance of Steph Curry so I guess I remember some posts. lol

Wall/Walker might not replicate Kidd/Terry on the floor but they don't need to. Wall brings a slashing aspect and the ability to draw fouls that Kidd no longer has. Kidd was actually a worst jump shooter than Wall when he initially entered the league so Wall certainly can develop some range. Wall also should be a much better defender in time. Kemba is a cold blooded scorer in the Terry mold. I think those two could have a lot of success together. Crawford could play the Barea role as he's more effective with the ball in his hands. Kemba played off the ball a ton in college, especially this past season. I think it could work if you add a perimeter defender in the Tony Allen/DeShawn Stevenson mold for 15-20 minutes a night.

You don't want to go down this road anymore, Dat. You screwed up when you dogged me on Brewer for no reason, and you're doing it again with Foye. When the Wiz traded for Foye and Miller, I specifically said I wasn't happy about getting him. In fairness, I did say I liked getting Miller - but that I would have held out for the Lawson pick. As for Curry, I said he'd be the ideal 3rd guard in the NBA, and I don't think he's a starting NBA PG on a great team. I know people disagree with me, but I haven't changed my mind. And this has nothing to do with the discussion.

It's possible that Wall and Walker could fit, but there's a lot of ifs that would have to be answered, and at least 1 of them would have to become an outstanding catch and shoot player.

[7-Day Dray]

:o

Holy cow! Vesely to the Raps?! When they have a gaping hole at C and need PG of the future?!?! If that happens, I draft Kanter at 6 and immediately call TOR to offer Blatche for Klieza and a 2nd. Immediately!

WHAT?!? Why do we have to trade Blatche if we draft Kanter? We could just bring one of them off the bench, and I think we would have one of the best big-man rotations in the league. I know you hate Blatche Rico, but you're really willing to trade him for KLEIZA and a 2ND! Kleiza sucks and suffered a severe injury, and might not be back on the court for a while, and a 2nd in this draft? That's selling EXTREMELY LOW!

Nowadays, you need offensive firepower off the bench, not just good starters, and Blatche or Kanter can provide that for us. I don't want Blatche traded, but if you really want him traded, why wouldn't you just wait until he rehabs his value so you can get a better package.

[7-Day Dray]

A new scout for NBADraft.net has this series called "JNixon-Iggy9's (his forum username) Countdown to the Draft: 60 Prospects in 30 Days. He has Vesely at #6 on his board. He's the best scout I know and I value what he says very highly. Here's what he had to say about Vesely.

6: Jan Vesely, 6’11 240, PF/SF, KK Partizan Belgrade (Serbia), 21 years old

Vesely is a Euro prospect who has been known in scouting circles for a while, and he was a very likely lottery pick in the 2010 draft but he returned to Europe. There is considerable talent and potential in Vesely, and just enough ready-made ability to allow him to contribute a bit early on in his rookie year as well. Physically, Vesely is great. At 6’11 240, he’s an oversized combo forward. His size and length will make him huge for a SF, and he’s got more than enough size to compete at PF too. He could stand to get bigger and improve his strength though. Athletically, from what I’ve seen Vesely is also great. He runs well and shows great explosiveness and leaping ability. He’s also pretty quick, especially for his size.

Offensively, Vesely is pretty good right now despite not having considerable polish. As a shooter, he’s a bit shaky though. His release is high and he has the added advance of being 6’11, but his touch isn’t great although his mechanics are consistent and somewhat smooth. He will need a lot of reps and to work on making his mechanics more natural before he becomes dependable with his feet set or off 1 or 2 dribbles. It’s also worth mentioning that he has never shot better than 67.4% from the FT line, so he’s a bad free throw shooter, which speaks to his touch and need to improve. As a slasher, Vesely is better from the mid-range area against PF’s where he usually has a quickness advantage than he is on the wing against SF’s. His ball-handling skills aren’t great from around the arc, and he generally doesn’t create in isolation against SF’s. Only effective for 2-3 dribbles. Lucky for Vesely, and one of the main reasons he should be able to play early is that he doesn’t need to handle the ball a lot to be effective right now. Outstanding motor allows him to score off scraps plays. Willing and competitive player. Is outstanding in transition, one of the very best in this class, and sprints the floor and finishes emphatically in the open floor. Rarely looks to lay the ball in when close to the rim, and is more than capable of finishing very strong in traffic. Has developed the ability to post up SF’s. He’s extremely oversized for the position, so although he’s not super skilled down low and relies on a right handed jump hook and a quick drop step to get shots off, it’s a positive development. As he continues to add base strength, that skill will only get better. Not selfish as a passer.

Defensively, Vesely has potential but some concerns as well. Right now, his athleticism and length will allow him to be a versatile pick and roll defender and he should be able to effectively guard SF’s and PF’s in time. Right now he can struggle to guard PF’s due to his lack of great strength, and he struggles to contain the quicker SF’s too. Is a wee bit foul prone at times due to his struggles with matching up with certain types of players on this end, but as he gets stronger it should become less of a concern. He is a solid ball-thief and shot-blocker though, as his length and leaping skills help him greatly. Where Vesely really struggles at and puts a dapper on his ability to play extended time at PF is his rebounding skills. He’s a very mediocre rebounder, and well below average for someone with his level of athleticism and physical tools. That will have to improve.

Vesely has huge potential, and his skill level is developing. His ability to play without having to handle the ball a ton will be a tool that should allow him to get on the floor very soon and play solid rotation time for a rookie. Still, he’s a work in progress with his skill set offensively and his struggles right now defending a certain position make it likely that he will run into problems with fouls as he did overseas. Sooner or later though, Vesely will be a solid starting SF for a team. His defensive ability will improve in time, as it’s not a matter of athleticism, he just has to improve his physical tools and strength.

Sure Vesely needs polish, but I think he's being very underrated by this board. If Kanter is gone at #6, I would gladly take him.