2010-11 POY Voting Thread - Congrats Dirk Nowitzki!

[ElGee]

I don't want to break the flow of the voting thread with a long tangent, but do people realize Dirk shot 41% in the Finals and his primary role is scoring on high volume...he had 3 poor shooting nights in 6. Just in case people forgot.

[studcrackers]

well he had a 102 fever in one game and 1 other he had 1 awful half. even so he still was in double digits in the 4th quarter

[mysticbb]

I don't want to break the flow of the voting thread with a long tangent, but do people realize Dirk shot 41% in the Finals and his primary role is scoring on high volume...he had 3 poor shooting nights in 6. Just in case people forgot.

Nowitzki was also the best defensive rebounder in the finals with a 27.1 DRB%. Not quite sure how you can reduce his role to shooting alone. Additional to that was it his presence which opened up opportunities for the rest of the players. You should check out how the rest of the Mavericks did when Nowitzki wasn't on the court.
It is also quite telling that you concentrate on the fg%, when Nowitzki was making 45 of his 46 free throw attempts. And is 26 points per game not a "scoring on a high volume"?

Even though he didn't shoot as accurate as in previous rounds he still was as efficient as a scorer as James on a much higher volume. So, what is your point?

Voting:

1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. LeBron James
3. Dwight Howard
4. Dwyane Wade
5. Derrick Rose

[JordansBulls]

I don't want to break the flow of the voting thread with a long tangent, but do people realize Dirk shot 41% in the Finals and his primary role is scoring on high volume...he had 3 poor shooting nights in 6. Just in case people forgot.

You realize Lebron is 5th all time in playoff PPG and 4 guys in this series averaged more ppg than him (2 guys on his own team and 2 guys on the Mavs) A guy who came off the bench in Terry averaged more ppg than him. Not to mention Lebron had a 3.9 WS thru the ECF and thru the NBA Finals it went down to 3.8. Which means in the Finals he had a -0.1 WS. For reference Wade had a 3.0 WS thru the ECF

[ElGee]

It was in response to drza (and a number of other allusions) to Dirk's Finals. I do feel like people are incredibly jazzed up over his brilliant late-game performances or something, whereas I would say the Finals was easily his worst series of the playoffs. Just for some perspective, he averaged 28.4 on 64% TS in the first 3 rounds. At that point in the playoffs, no one had ever done what he was doing: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws

The point about shooting was to emphasize that. His 53.7% TS is incredibly low for him, and it came from his 52-125 FGs. It had nothing to do with James, and I note that he shot a high-volume of attempts, which makes accuracy more important. (If you score 80 points and use all 85 of your team's possessions, that's probably not very good.) He facilitates, he spaces, he d rebounds, but those aren't really strengths (outside of spacing). His strength is volume scoring at high accuracy, and this just wasn't a great series for him in that regard.

[mysticbb]

His strength is volume scoring at high accuracy, and this just wasn't a great series for him in that regard.

I agree with your post, but you are getting lost in one aspect. The focus on that aspect will give you a misleading view on the overall impact. Yes, he scored less efficient that usually, but he was right there with the Heat. That means the Mavericks didn't lose out on his scoring, he matched the Heat on a big volume. Now you add the rest of the stuff he brings to the court and all of the sudden that can explain the impact (which shows up by the +/- numbers). Obviously the rest of the team has to deliver, has to uses their opportunties and they did. Unlike in 2006, when the opportunities for Howard and Terry were also there, but they missed a lot of open shots in game 6. Nowitzki got the majority of the blame for that despite the fact that Dallas as a team lost, now the people are giving Nowitzki the majority of the credit (which is basically backed up by the +/- numbers).

[Vinsanity420]

My tentative rankings -

1. LeBron
2. Dirk
3. Howard
4. Wade
5. Rose

LeBron - He was having a great postseason, until the finals. But I honestly can't rank Dirk over him, simply because I felt LeBron was the better player during the course of the year by a good margin.

Wade - Amazing against Boston ( As usual), and amazing in the finals. Best player in the finals. Overall body of work however wasn't as good as LeBron, Howard's or Dirk's.

Dirk - I didn't post in the discussion threads immediately after the finals... I felt like I would've automatically went with Dirk. After reflecting back on the Mavs vs Heat series some, it seems pretty clear that Dirk wasn't the best player in the series... Wade was, and of course, no one would realize this since it was the Mavs that won. The Mavs got solid contributions from Tyson Chandler (Top 15 in RAPM, and great in advanced stats this year... played his role extremely well.) and Jason Terry (Went lights out in the last two games of the finals, and definitely played like a perfectly legitimate 2nd option during the course of the Mavs playoff run... for perhaps the first time in his career). Heck, even DeShawn Stevenson was hitting shots that I didn't think he could. Combine that with some very good decision making from Carlisle, and the Mavs had all it took to oust the Heat for this year. Dirk wasn't amazingly efficient in the finals, but still came through in the clutch from time to time and was simply unstoppable when the pressure turned on during the course of the playoffs..he actually was my RPOY for a good portion of the regular season as well... he can take the 2nd spot here.

Howard - There simply wasn't much more he could do for Orlando. He carried the offense, carried the defense, and the team still couldn't get by Atlanta. Outside of his ridiculous 21.6% TO rate vs Atlanta, I didn't have any complaints from him. He was simply fantastic this year.

Rose - #5 is a tough choice for me... Paul was actually better in the postseason for me - but he simply wasn't dominating the same way in the regular season ( or was he? His advanced stats were amazing... maybe I overlooked NO during this season). He wasn't too hot vs the Heat, where Wade schooled him some on their 1 on 1 matchups. Still a great year, and merits the 5th spot in my book.

[Gongxi]

The problem is when superstars take the blame, they take far too much. When they take the credit, they also take far too much.

[JordansBulls]

Statistically speaking Lebron wasn't ahead of his competitors this year as he had been, in fact he barely was in front. And the team he joined went down in wins compared to the team he was on the prior years even with more star help on it. If thru the ECF I can certainly see Lebron being #1, but after the NBA Finals which was to be a coronation and the Heat were the favorite and his 2 star teammates played better than him, I just don't see how he stays #1 after that. It was like it was an entirely different player. And the thing is is that he mentioned how he constantly watched the 2007 finals over and over again. I just don't see how you could play bad again when you know you need to play well in the finals. Dwight is tricky as well because he was right with Lebron in stats, but then bombed out in round 1 despite being the favorite and predicted to win by every analyst.

I just don't see how Dirk could not be #1 this year when the team was 2-7 without him and then they were missing essentially 2 guys in Butler and Roddy and then Haywood went out with injury in the finals and they still won.

[mopper8]

I feel very comfortable with Dirk-Wade-Howard in that order going somewhere in the 1-4 spots, and Rose going #5. The issue was (and remains) where to put Lebron.

If I wanted to, could I change my vote? The more I think about it, the more I think I want to have him lower.

[Sedale Threatt]

It was in response to drza (and a number of other allusions) to Dirk's Finals. I do feel like people are incredibly jazzed up over his brilliant late-game performances or something, whereas I would say the Finals was easily his worst series of the playoffs.

Agreed, although I'd have to give Miami a ton of credit for that. Udonis Haslem isn't an easy player to exploit. Still, Bryant has been accused of having poor Finals series for no other reason than his FG%. I haven't really seen any of the same sort of criticism of Dirk. Which is great -- I thought he still had a really good series, and a spectacular overall playoffs. But the difference between the two has been interesting. Not just there, but in their respective Game 7 and Game 6 performances.

At any rate, nobody had a bigger impact on this year's NBA season, so...

1. Nowitzki
2. James
3. Howard
4. Wade
5. Rose

LeBron had another great season, and if he'd been even average in the Finals, I would have taken him first. Unfortunately for him, that was the turd in the punchbowl, and it was a pretty big turd. He didn't have a huge impact in any game, on either end that I can remember, and he got worse as the series went on. Unacceptable.

[HeatRing2012]

It was in response to drza (and a number of other allusions) to Dirk's Finals. I do feel like people are incredibly jazzed up over his brilliant late-game performances or something, whereas I would say the Finals was easily his worst series of the playoffs. Just for some perspective, he averaged 28.4 on 64% TS in the first 3 rounds. At that point in the playoffs, no one had ever done what he was doing: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws

The point about shooting was to emphasize that. His 53.7% TS is incredibly low for him, and it came from his 52-125 FGs. It had nothing to do with James, and I note that he shot a high-volume of attempts, which makes accuracy more important. (If you score 80 points and use all 85 of your team's possessions, that's probably not very good.) He facilitates, he spaces, he d rebounds, but those aren't really strengths (outside of spacing). His strength is volume scoring at high accuracy, and this just wasn't a great series for him in that regard.

ask yourself this: why was Dirk at his weakest against a team he should have a field day against?

lets recap
- in the 1st round he went against Aldridge - who I'm judging to be the best Dirk defender in the NBA, and he prevailed
- in the 2nd round he matched against Gasol and Odom - who (by my account) is the 2nd best Dirk defender in the NBA - and he prevailed
- in the 3rd round he went against a collection of Ibaka, Durant, Sefolosha and Collison - the latter did a hell of a job against Dirk and I would never that impact beforehand (albeit the refs helped Nick here, the dude wanted to get Nowitzki pregnant). however, he prevailed

so, suddenly Dirks shooting numbers go down against a weak frontcourt of Anthony? a guy who has no tools to stop Dirk?

what are the requirements to stop a jumpshooter from hitting his shots?
a) good defense
b) injuries to his hands

the former can't be true in that case, as everybody wittnessed in all the open shots Dirk got

but what about option "b"?
- Dirk torn his left teondon in game 1... results: no more dunks, cant dribble safely with his left hand, arguably had problems catching the ball for the rebound (he usually grabs the rebound first with his left hand, swips with his right hand on the ball)
- Dirk got a bone bruise in game 2 (or 3, not sure) on his right hand after he went for a block against Bosh, hitting the rim hard... results: his jumpshot was off since that day on
- Dirk played with a 102° sinus injection in game 4 and for the rest of the series of course.

so maybe those are the reasons he wasn't shooting Dirk like and sadly was more on a Kobe like shooting level in an elimination game
(Kobe suffered the same fate here: Kobe was way better in game 7 than his FG% would suggest... talking about presence and defensive focus - but thats another story)

nevertheless all his record breaking performances up to the finals can't be ignored.
I think he broke 2 (or 3?) all time records in this playoff run:
- most consecutive free throws in a game in the history of the NBA
- most efficiency volumne scoring game in the history of the game.
- only 1 of 3 people to win the ring with 25+ ppg and 60% TS (the others: Michael Jordan and Larry Bird)
- best clutch performance in this decade
- hit countless game winning baskets

for breaking the all time records alone, everybody should give Dirk the nod for the #1 place

[Sedale Threatt]

Good summation of his achievements. He really did have a remarkable run.

Compare that to LeBron fizzling out under the brightest lights...I'm not seeing much of a case there.

[mopper8]

Dirk shot 7-18 in game 1 vs Miami, before he injured his finger or got the flu. Also, last I checked injuring your finger doesn't change your lift, and Joel Anthony still managed to block a Dirk fadeaway jumper. Also, Dirk shot 31% when guarded by Udonis Haslem in the 2006 NBA Finals, so why would it be shocking for him to struggle against Haslem again this year? Last, since when was the Heat's interior defense weak? They held opponents to the lowest at-rim fg% in the league, and it wasn't even close...#2 was 3% lower. They were a top-5 defensive rebounding team by Drb%.

Anthony is only 6'9 but has a huge wingspan, is a quick leaper, very laterally quick, knows how to defend with his feet and be physical without fouling. Haslem is an incredibly good man-to-man defender down low and excellent at getting in a guy's airspace without fouling. What's more, Miami is one of the best in the league at sending doubles, and then recovering to shooters, and often the guys doubling are the two best athletic wing players in the league in Wade and Lebron. It's surprising Dirk struggled against them from the field? We have to make (bogus) excuses for him? Two mobile, athletic, defensive-minded bigs and one of the best help defenses in the league?

The mistake is assuming that Dirk should've "had a field day" against Miami. You have to know literally nothing about the Heat or nothing about basketball, or both, to assume that.

[mysticbb]

Agreed, although I'd have to give Miami a ton of credit for that. Udonis Haslem isn't an easy player to exploit. Still, Bryant has been accused of having poor Finals series for no other reason than his FG%. I haven't really seen any of the same sort of criticism of Dirk.

I think the lack of criticism is due to three things: Everybody expected a great performance by Bryant and had the Lakers as the favorites in 2010. But we saw the Lakers struggle against that "old" Celtics team. Nobody really expected the Mavericks to do anything and Nowitzki showed some incredible performances before, especially some really clutch performances in the playoffs.
The second thing is the difference in the shots they were taking. Bryant took more bad shots than Nowitzki did. Nowitzki just missed some shots he usually made and had 5 shots which were basically forced by the shot clock in the first half, while Bryant took long jumpers he always converted on a lower rate. It was also seen that the Lakers had indeed better options than bad long jumpers.
And last but not least, Nowitzki indeed scored slightly more efficient. Bryant had 31 true shooting attempts, Nowitzki had indeed only 27.

But that is only the part about their shooting. Bryant added 15! rebounds to that, which was big. Nowitzki had 11 rebounds, also a big number. Bryant grabbed around 17.5% of the possible rebounds, Nowitzki too (yes, Nowitzki played less minutes and there were less rebounds available) while he grab 35% of the possible defensive rebounds. Both showed incredible performances on the boards, especially Bryant as a guard.

Numberwise both had a similar game (if we take Bryant's more minutes into account), based on the playing style on offense, it looked like Bryant wanted to force more despite having better options. That might explain the different kind of criticism. Whether it is warranted is a different story.

[Sedale Threatt]

Yeah, I agree that the context wasn't quite the same.

I just find it interesting that, despite playing pretty comparable games, the difference in reaction has been massive. It's not even been a different kind of criticism. Bryant was crucified, to the point people want to flush his entire Finals down the toilet, while Dirk has gotten virtually zero scrutiny.

Which I don't have much of a problem with. Dirk deserves all the praise he's getting. I just think it's...interesting, is all.

And keep in mind, I'm not just talking about last year, either. There are some who would argue Bryant has never had a good Finals, based solely on FG%.

[mopper8]

I think there is a perception (probably accurate) that Dirk has less help, and that's playing a role here as well. When Bryant struggles, its easy to look at the other names on the roster - Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Artest - and just give them credit for carrying him, whereas Chandler, Terry, Marion, Barea don't really resonate nearly as much, never mind Terry going for 19 on 8-10 in just the first half of game 6.

Name brand influences perception as much as performance.

[Sedale Threatt]

Another good point.

[alucryts]

1. Dirk
2. Lebron
3. Howard
4. Wade
5. Durant

[Gongxi]

I think there is a perception (probably accurate) that Dirk has less help, and that's playing a role here as well. When Bryant struggles, its easy to look at the other names on the roster - Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Artest - and just give them credit for carrying him, whereas Chandler, Terry, Marion, Barea don't really resonate nearly as much, never mind Terry going for 19 on 8-10 in just the first half of game 6.

Name brand influences perception as much as performance.

That's another chicken/egg thing, because if the Mavs were to repeat, those players would certainly and suddenly get all the name recognition and then some. Hell, even next December (if there's a season, knock on wood) these same players will be seen as "key championship pieces", "tough-minded vets" who can "get the job done of the biggest stage" and whatnot. Whereas two weeks ago they were "unproven", "perpetual also-rans", etc.

So sure, there's that perception now. Enjoy it while it lasts, because it won't for long. Hell, look at the 2003 Spurs. People still point to what some of those players later became as evidence of their budding clutchness at the time. Sure, Manu wasn't that great yet, but he became great later, so there was some of that je ne sais quoi already at work.

The argument of perception becomes cyclical and self-reinforcing, which is why we need to try to stay away from it as much as possible.