Hayward

[Rondo2Hondo]

As a Boston fan, I just wanted to tell you Jazz fans how much I like this kid. I can see him being an all-star down the track, and I wish we had him in Beantown.

What type of career do you see him having?

[HolyToledo]

Anywhere from Mike Dunleavy to Iguodala....I do think he will make the Allstar team 1-2 times in his career.

[Litany]

I think most everyone thinks he will be a solid starter in the league for years to come, but opinions vary as to his ceiling.

I am in the camp that believes he can become a player like Ginobili.

His amazing 3pt shooting % (47.3 his rookie season), his ability to be a playmaker, ability to finish, and his good defensive fundamentals make me like him a lot.

We discussed this quite a bit in this thread and you can see what many peoples opinion of him is:

viewtopic.php?f=33&t=1114473

[carrottop12]

A rich man's Mike Dunleavy is probably the best case scenario imo. Maybe a sustained prime Mike Dunleavy.

In his best season Dunleavy averaged 19/5/3.5 with 47/42%. I think if the Jazz could get that from Hayward, with his defense and good decision making they'd have to be thrilled.

[reapaman]

To me his ceiling is Mike Miller. Both have similar size and athleticism. They play eerily similar to me (young mike miller not old mike miller). The way hayward rusn out for blocks, operate under the basket, drive to the lane, his shooting form, ect... looks very similar to young Mike Miller. Miller was also a decent playmaker (especially his nice passes to Mcgrady) which Hayward could be too. Mike Miller had a much better rookie season tho and looked more in control of his game, mabey Hayward just needed to be trusted like Miller was and not critized by the star player.

In the right situation, Hayward could defintely be a solid starter ala Miller.

[HammerDunk]

His ceiling is Manu.

[dingojazz]

After he schooled the Lakers Kobe compared him to Hornacek with better handles and height.

[Neon Black]

You can't hold his rookie season against him. Once he finally had a chance to play consistent minutes, he put up several 30+ point games and rebounded, blocked and dished the ball. He was also one of our best defenders all year.

So we've got comparisons to Mike Miller and Dunleavy? Really? Cus they're tall, white, can handle the ball and shoot. I see Hayward's ceiling as a lot higher than either. As solid as Miller and Dunvleavy were at one point in their career, they were both supplementary players putting up good #'s on bad teams.

I think while playing style and physique are different, as far as impact on a game goes I think Hayward compares well to Manu, Iggy, and maybe even a little bit of Tayshaun Prince. Though, honestly, he'll have advantages in height and length over Manu, efficiency and possibly shooting over Iggy, and ball handling/PG skills over Tayshaun.

I think he can and probably will be a game changer on a GOOD team.

[woodstock17]

If he can shoot the 3 like he did the last half of the season consitently, I think that will really open up his game and could be a potential all star but he still has a ways to go. He did some things toward the end of the season that just left me in awe

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaiUkuSIVXM&feature=related[/youtube]


Love his dunk at 2:30 mark.

[reapaman]

You can't hold his rookie season against him. Once he finally had a chance to play consistent minutes, he put up several 30+ point games and rebounded, blocked and dished the ball. He was also one of our best defenders all year.

Lol, did you even watch him. He only had one 30 point game and that was the last game of the season versus a nugget team that sat out half of their regular rotation. I was gonna make an aurgument but no need too. Please watch Hayward play and you will see that Mike Miller is actually a generous comparison.

[Litany]

You can't hold his rookie season against him. Once he finally had a chance to play consistent minutes, he put up several 30+ point games and rebounded, blocked and dished the ball. He was also one of our best defenders all year.

Lol, did you even watch him. He only had one 30 point game and that was the last game of the season versus a nugget team that sat out half of their regular rotation. I was gonna make an aurgument but no need too. Please watch Hayward play and you will see that Mike Miller is actually a generous comparison.

My understanding is that Mike Miller is a spot up shooter. That is what I think of when I hear his name. Maybe he is more than that, I just don't know a ton about his game, just what he is mostly labeled as.

I think Gordon is comparable to Manu because I think Gordon is more than just a 3-point shooter. I think that Hayward is a playmaker. He has the ability to create for other people. And no, it isn't just against the Nuggets at the end of the season. He did it against the best SG in the league. He created plays for people, he drove in the lane, he hit shots of curls, he created his own shot, he hit 3-pointers, and he defended well.

By seeing how he played the last couple months of the season, I think he can be compared to Manu. I think of Manu when i think of someone who does those things I listed above. So why Isn't Manu a good comparison and in your opinion Mike Miller is "generous?"

I can't see the coach giving the ball to Mike Miller and asking him to create. Pop did that with Manu and I can see coach doing that with Hayward (which he has already done).

Maybe you will be able to describe more about Mike Millers game and he will end up being a good comparison. But I don't see why Manu isn't a good one.

[retiredcoach]

by reapaman on Fri Jun 17, 2011 9:49 am

Neon Black wrote:You can't hold his rookie season against him. Once he finally had a chance to play consistent minutes, he put up several 30+ point games and rebounded, blocked and dished the ball. He was also one of our best defenders all year.


Lol, did you even watch him. He only had one 30 point game and that was the last game of the season versus a nugget team that sat out half of their regular rotation. I was gonna make an aurgument but no need too. Please watch Hayward play and you will see that Mike Miller is actually a generous comparison.

I watched every game he played in. I watched him practice and I've watched him workout. Your comparison is way off the mark. The Denver game had nothing to do with what I see on the court with one exception. During the first half of the season, Hayward would not have taken advantage of a weak Denver team, and he wouldn't have shot the ball or looked to score nearly the way he did by the end of the season. That single change in his thinking is very very important.

Next season I think you see 3 important changes in his game. 1. He'll be looking to score. 2. He'll shorten his stride by a few inches when driving into the paint. That will give him better body control and he'll finish stronger at the rim. 3. He'll get open much more often and his teammates will get him the ball. He'll use curls and screens much more effectively.

Comparing Manu to Hayward, my prediction is he'll be somewhere between 10% below Manu to 20% above. The 20% above comes from doing other things that make the people around him better and not just scoring.

[erudite23]

Because Manu, unbeknownst to many fans who aren't into advanced metrics, was actually one of the best 10 players in the NBA for about 5 straight years. His combination of elite scoring efficiency, low TO #s, shooting, slashing, rebounding from the SG position and defensive acumen makes him one of the most unique players in NBA history...and that's before you add in his insane intangibles and flair for the dramatic.

You might as well say that Gordo is the next Kevin Durant.


That said, I see both comparisons. I think that Hayward has a better first step and a better handle, making it easier for him to beat his man off the bounce and giving him more playmaking ability than Mike Miller was in his prime. But Miller is a good comparison because, during his prime, he had a high IQ/feel for the game, a silky smooth jumper with deep range, was an excellent passer, unselfish and had similar height to Gordon.

So I like that comparison, because that's about the upper limit of what I can see Hayward becoming. If he wants to fulfill all his potential, though, he's going to have to become far more assertive, get a better handle (which I think he will), keep his shooting numbers where they're at, but most importantly he's going to have to START REBOUNDING. His RR from last year was pathetic. There were quite a few PGs who were better than him on the boards and that's unacceptable. One thing that's impressive about Miller is the way his RR climbed throughout the early portion of his career to the point that he was one of the best SF rebounders in the NBA during his prime. If Gordon can do that while making the other improvements that I mentioned above, he could be a 20 PER player and make a few All Star teams.

I don't think that will happen, though, and believe he will max out as an above average starter. If that's the case, I'll be very happy. He was not very good for much of last season.

[reapaman]

My understanding is that Mike Miller is a spot up shooter. That is what I think of when I hear his name. Maybe he is more than that, I just don't know a ton about his game, just what he is mostly labeled as.

I think Gordon is comparable to Manu because I think Gordon is more than just a 3-point shooter. I think that Hayward is a playmaker. He has the ability to create for other people. And no, it isn't just against the Nuggets at the end of the season. He did it against the best SG in the league. He created plays for people, he drove in the lane, he hit shots of curls, he created his own shot, he hit 3-pointers, and he defended well.

By seeing how he played the last couple months of the season, I think he can be compared to Manu. I think of Manu when i think of someone who does those things I listed above. So why Isn't Manu a good comparison and in your opinion Mike Miller is "generous?"

I can't see the coach giving the ball to Mike Miller and asking him to create. Pop did that with Manu and I can see coach doing that with Hayward (which he has already done).

Maybe you will be able to describe more about Mike Millers game and he will end up being a good comparison. But I don't see why Manu isn't a good one.

Mike Miller was more than a 3 point shooter before the injuries. Yes he could create for him self off the dribble, post up under the basket, throw sick passes to mcgrady or getting his teammates open looks, nice help defense, he was a good rebounder for his position, and all the other stuff you mentioned. He was no manu off the dribble but neither is Hayward. Miller also had way more high scoring games than Hayward did, was better on defense and basically looked more promising. Miller was never really a spot up shooter, he just had to resort to that after he started getting injured alot. I don't know where you got that idea from.

Plus the guy said he had multiple 30+ pt games. He only had one 30 pt game against the nuggets and the next high was 22 versus the Lakers in a stretch where the Lakers were letting guys like Kenyon Martin match or exceed their season highs. He also had a bunch of single digit games mixed in there with some low teen games as well (he did have a 19 and 18 pt game scattered in there). Once again Mike Miller had better stretches than the one hayward had his entire rookie season. So its a generous comparison until Hayward is able to at least match what Miller did his rookie season let alone Miller's 2nd season. BTW Miller's 2nd season average was 15/4/3 (pts/rbs/ast) on 43% shooting and 38% from 3. GL with that hayward.

[Litany]

Hayward and Ginobili advanced rookie stats:


Ginobili:

TS%: .556
eFG%: .503
ORB%: 4.0
DRB%: 8.8
TRB%: 6.5
AST%: 15.8
STL%: 3.6
BLK%: 0.8
TOV%: 17.5
USG%: 18.5
ORtg: 106
DRtg: 98


Hayward:

TS%: .578
eFG%: .544
ORB%: 4.0
DRB%: 9.8
TRB%: 6.9
AST%: 10.2
STL%: 1.3
BLK%: 1.3
TOV%: 17.3
USG%: 15.3
ORtg: 106
DRtg: 113

Rookie season stats from NBA.Com:

Ginobili:

MPG: 20.7
FG%: 0.438
3P%: 0.345
FT%: 0.737
OFF: 0.7
DEF: 1.7
RBG: 2.3
APG: 2.0
SPG: 1.4
BPG: 0.2
TO: 1.45
PPG: 7.6

Hayward:

MPG: 16.9
FG%: 0.485
3P%: 0.473
FT%: 0.711
OFF: 0.6
DEF: 1.4
RPG: 1.9
APG: 1.1
SPG: 0.4
BPG: 0.3
TO: 1.0
PPG: 5.4

Just throwing these out there. Hayward had better shooting percentages, a better TS%, an equal offensive rating, better defensive rating, better in rebounding, less steals, equal turnovers, more blocks, less assists.

I'm not seeing why comparing Hayward to Ginobili is such a stretch for some people when you consider their size and the way that they play.

As I said before, maybe Miller can be a good comparison too. But I don't get why someone said I might as well compare him to Durant...

[HammerDunk]

I love that he clearly had a sun burn at that Laker game. He fits in well in Utah...

[reapaman]

Just throwing these out there. Hayward had better shooting percentages, a better TS%, an equal offensive rating, better defensive rating, better in rebounding, less steals, equal turnovers, more blocks, less assists.

I'm not seeing why comparing Hayward to Ginobili is such a stretch for some people when you consider their size and the way that they play.

As I said before, maybe Miller can be a good comparison too. But I don't get why someone said I might as well compare him to Durant...

Hayward and Manu do "play" similarly and the size is relatively similar despite Hayward being taller. The one thing your missing is that manu is extremely quick compared to anyone and Hayward is not, in addition to manu being a little bit faster in the open court. Those are the main differences, and they are big differences. The speed and quickness manu has helps him out alot especially on defense which to me makes him a different player despite their similarities. BTW, you can't go soley on stats otherwise you could conclude Rudy Fernadez would be better than Manu based off his rookie season. I only mentioned that Miller had a better rookie season because what Hayward did in that last stretch was not special, Miller peformed like that and better his entire rookie season. Just gotta temper your expectations a bit.

For future reference the lower the defensive rating the better, so haywards d rating is significantly worse than manu's. Manu by his 3rd season put up 117 O rating and 98 D rating, do you know how great that is? Thats all time status.

[Litany]

Just throwing these out there. Hayward had better shooting percentages, a better TS%, an equal offensive rating, better defensive rating, better in rebounding, less steals, equal turnovers, more blocks, less assists.

I'm not seeing why comparing Hayward to Ginobili is such a stretch for some people when you consider their size and the way that they play.

As I said before, maybe Miller can be a good comparison too. But I don't get why someone said I might as well compare him to Durant...

Hayward and Manu do "play" similarly and the size is relatively similar despite Hayward being taller. The one thing your missing is that manu is extremely quick compared to anyone and Hayward is not, in addition to manu being a little bit faster in the open court. Those are the main differences, and they are big differences. The speed and quickness manu has helps him out alot especially on defense which to me makes him a different player despite their similarities. BTW, you can't go soley on stats otherwise you could conclude Rudy Fernadez would be better than Manu based off his rookie season. I only mentioned that Miller had a better rookie season because what Hayward did in that last stretch was not special, Miller peformed like that and better his entire rookie season. Just gotta temper your expectations a bit.

For future reference the lower the defensive rating the better, so haywards d rating is significantly worse than manu's. Manu by his 3rd season put up 117 O rating and 98 D rating, do you know how great that is? Thats all time status.

We are clearly far apart on this argument. Lets just let it play out and talk about it some more in a few years.

[Charlie_S]

Because Manu, unbeknownst to many fans who aren't into advanced metrics, was actually one of the best 10 players in the NBA for about 5 straight years. His combination of elite scoring efficiency, low TO #s, shooting, slashing, rebounding from the SG position and defensive acumen makes him one of the most unique players in NBA history...and that's before you add in his insane intangibles and flair for the dramatic.

You might as well say that Gordo is the next Kevin Durant.


That said, I see both comparisons. I think that Hayward has a better first step and a better handle, making it easier for him to beat his man off the bounce and giving him more playmaking ability than Mike Miller was in his prime. But Miller is a good comparison because, during his prime, he had a high IQ/feel for the game, a silky smooth jumper with deep range, was an excellent passer, unselfish and had similar height to Gordon.

So I like that comparison, because that's about the upper limit of what I can see Hayward becoming. If he wants to fulfill all his potential, though, he's going to have to become far more assertive, get a better handle (which I think he will), keep his shooting numbers where they're at, but most importantly he's going to have to START REBOUNDING. His RR from last year was pathetic. There were quite a few PGs who were better than him on the boards and that's unacceptable. One thing that's impressive about Miller is the way his RR climbed throughout the early portion of his career to the point that he was one of the best SF rebounders in the NBA during his prime. If Gordon can do that while making the other improvements that I mentioned above, he could be a 20 PER player and make a few All Star teams.

I don't think that will happen, though, and believe he will max out as an above average starter. If that's the case, I'll be very happy. He was not very good for much of last season.

I quote this post entirely. Most people don't seem to realize just how good Manu has been throughout his career. Expecting Gordon to be at his level (or even better!) essentially means expecting him to become a perennial top 3 player at his position. I'd absolutely love it but that's setting the bar a bit too high...

[StocktonShorts]

Manu's a Euro. Euros are crap.