Emotionless, pure logic draft

[superd]

Jazz fans, I write this as a guy who really wants Jimmer. I know this is long, but it's the weekend so take your time!

If we examine our probable starting 5 for next year we have the following:
sf - Millsap
c - Jefferson
pf - Favors
sg - Hayward
pg - Harris

That is a good lineup.

The other guys:
pg - Watson, ok as a sub
sg, sf - Miles, big disappointment last year as I thought he turned the corner
c - Okur if healthy, good if considered in a bench role, average or below as a starter

Not a believer in any others unless Kirilenko comes back.
So, how do we fill in the gaps. I am not thinking long term here. We have a good starting lineup and I want to win THIS year.

Weaknesses:
We are no longer a good rebounding team; just average. Give up too many offensive rebounds.
Below average 3 point shooting. Teams can clog the middle against Favors, etc.
Our defense is average. Favors has potential, Harris is solid, others average.

If Williams falls to 3, we can start him at SF I think, Millsap backs up Williams & Favors, Favors backs up Jefferson. Worry Williams is a PF, though he shoots well from outside not sure on his perimeter defense

Doubt Williams falls, so what to do. These guys provide strengths to improve us:
Defense - Singleton on defense is very good, offense likely will come along; Biyombo, offense maybe never; Kawhi Leonard
Outside shooting - Jimmer is a great shooter, a couple others might be good, but Jimmer above all
Rebounding, Kanter and Valancinus, Biyombo, Faried (on paper, but worry his competition was weak)

If we stay at 3 and 12 I suggest:
Kanter & Singleton at 12 as Jimmer I am sure will be gone. Problem is I think outside scoring is our biggest weakness. We need to open up things for the front line, especially Favors who I think will beat anybody one on one.

Assumption: Brandon Knight will not help us much next year. Will not improve any weakness the way I want. I agree he has long term potential, but leave him out of this please.

Remember, I want guys who help next season. My questions:
1- If Williams is at 3 do we take him? Can he play defense at SF?
2- No Williams at #3, do we take Kanter or Valencinus? Too early for Jimmer?
3- at #12, Jimmer gone, who do we take?

[carrottop12]

1- If Williams is at 3 do we take him?

With out the slightest doubt.

2- No Williams at #3, do we take Kanter or Valencinus? Too early for Jimmer?

Did that really need a question mark?

[Litany]

2- No Williams at #3, do we take Kanter or Valencinus? Too early for Jimmer?

Did that really need a question mark?

I'm telling you, it is beyond ridiculous at this point...

To the OP: The thread title confuses me for a number of reasons. You start by saying you are a guy who really wants the Jazz to pick Jimmer and then go on with the following:

-You ask if Jimmer should be taken at #3

-Suggest we ignore Knight as a prospect at #3 when him and Kanter are most discussed as picks at #3

-Suggest players we should take at #3 and #12, but then reiterate our need for a shooter and say that Jimmer is the best shooter.

[superd]

From what I have read Jimmer has shown well in workouts and is slated as high as #7 for Golden State. I rate our outside shooting as a #1 weakness. Only Hayward worries anybody. Jimmer is the best in the draft. Therefore, the ? about Jimmer is he worth the #3 pick. Knight is nowhere close. Knight will not contribute at a high level to any team next year. He is not that good. Maybe in 2-3 years. I want to win next year.

My question on Williams is can he play defense at SF. If not, that makes him a small PF. If he is available, do we sit him on the bench? Do we trade Jefferson and hope Favors can play center? Nothing makes him an obvious #3 pick if he can't play both ways at SF.

I like Jimmer for his shooting. Way ahead of any other guard in this draft. You got a criticism I like Jimmer. I admit it. Who else fills our void of a 3 point threat in this draft to open up the inside for Favors? Nobody. Burks is mid-range slasher. Nobody else but Jimmer. I sure don't want to watch Miles clanking 3's for another year. You avoid addressing the weakness I point out. You really want Knight who is 2-3 years away? I don't want to wait for him or Biyombo to develop.

We resign Kirilenko we don' t need front court help. I say Jimmer and Singleton to address outside shooting and perimeter defense. If that means Jimmer at 3 I'm fine with it. I know he can contribute now, not 2-3 years from now.

[zachjazzface]

I have to agree that one of, if not, the biggest weakness the Jazz have is the 3 point shooting. I honestly wouldn't mind if the Jazz took Jimmer at #3 only if Williams and Irving are no longer available. Jimmer would spread out the floor and make Favors a much better player. And the beauty of it all is that we still have the 12th pick! We could still pick up a decent big man or someone like Singleton or Burks. If Jimmer won't be there at 12 I really think the Jazz should get him with the three or trade to get him. I know that the Kings like Milsap so maybe a trade with them to get their pick.

[kebutah]

Jimmer would give up at least as many points as he scores. His passing and defense both have worsened over the course of his collegiate career. He needs to excel in workouts because to date he has only demonstrated one thing that he can do, and his shooting percentages aren't even very good for his shooting.

[woodstock17]

I see what you are getting at but KOC has said himself that we probably won't get a player in this draft that can come in and have an immediate impact but will take 2 to 3 years to develop. The jazz are not close to contending for a title at all so if you think that jimmer is the missing link to push us over the edge then you are sorely mistaken.

I know we all want to win now but never have the jazz drafted for instant gratification. They draft long term especially with such high picks. You are trying to draft the players that will be the best in a couple years. That is why the draft is so hard.

What if you thought that brandon knight would be an allstar in 2 to 3 years? Would you still pass on him? I am not saying that he will but if the jaazz think that there is a possibility that one day he will be one of the best players in this draft they will not pass even if they know that it will take 2 to 3 years.

If williams can play the 3 then you take him hands down. If he can't then I don't know what you do. Make some calls and see what you can get for him

[QuantumMacgyver]

I like Jimmer for his shooting. Way ahead of any other guard in this draft. You got a criticism I like Jimmer. I admit it. Who else fills our void of a 3 point threat in this draft to open up the inside for Favors? Nobody. Burks is mid-range slasher. Nobody else but Jimmer.

Brandon Knight 3pt% 37.7
Jordan Hamilton 3pt% 38.5
Jimmer 3pt% 39.6
Klay Thompson 3pt% 39.8

Who else might fill our void as a 3 point threat... I wonder.

[Reckless]

Pure logic draft would be to draft Knight and Thompson

satisfy perimeter need as well as positional need.

I honestly don't know why people want Kanter so bad, he's basically going to be putting up Kosta Koufos #'s his first two years playing behind Favors/Millsap and who knows after that. one word to describe him is unproven.

[superd]

You wrote: Pure logic draft would be to draft Knight and Thompson
Klay Thompson or Tristan Thompson?

It does look like I am in the minority thinking the Jazz can be contenders next year. I think about Harris, Favors, and Hayward were all new to the lineup. Harris didn't even play much, which left us with no PG except Watson. Favors and Hayward should be improved. We even had a new coach. All the distractions, injuries, new guys, I understand the losing.

I know others had similar 3 pt FG# to Jimmer. But those guys were scoring 10 points a game less and were not the focal point of the other team's defense like Jimmer was. He will improve the entire offense by stretching others defense.

Miles missed open 3 after open 3 for years. That's because they left him to pack the paint. Can't do that with Jimmer.

[reapaman]

Yea our #1 weakness can't possibly be that thing we need to stop letting opponents score more than we do on most nights.... what is it called....... Defense which is something Jimmer isn't exactly know for.

Look I won't go on a sedistic rage in anger and start cutting everyones head off with a chainsaw if we draft Jimmer at #12 (I will if he goes #3) but if the main purpose of drafting him is for his shooting when we have some many other weaknesses, is a failure in itself. You dont even know if he's able to create his own shot effectively at the NBA level and its not like we have a great distibutor anymore to get him shots if he can't (which ironically he will be one of our distributors which ...... don't wanna think about it).

And I love Millsap but if we are forced to start him at SF (or even him playing alot of time at SF), we are surely headed for the lottery which I'm pretty sure we are regardless. Knight and Hamilton are my personal picks.

[kebutah]

Yea our #1 weakness can't possibly be that thing we need to stop letting opponents score more than we do on most nights.... what is it called....... Defense which is something Jimmer isn't exactly know for.

Look I won't go on a sedistic rage in anger and start cutting everyones head off with a chainsaw if we draft Jimmer at #12 (I will if he goes #3) but if the main purpose of drafting him is for his shooting when we have some many other weaknesses, is a failure in itself. You dont even know if he's able to create his own shot effectively at the NBA level and its not like we have a great distibutor anymore to get him shots if he can't (which ironically he will be one of our distributors which ...... don't wanna think about it).

And I love Millsap but if we are forced to start him at SF (or even him playing alot of time at SF), we are surely headed for the lottery which I'm pretty sure we are regardless. Knight and Hamilton are my personal picks.

+1

[superd]

Fun things about mock drafts is we get to see how the guys we like look a couple years down the road.

Today I read an article about the 25th anniversary of Len Bias death. I went and looked to see where he was drafted (#2) and lo and behold second round picks included Dennis Rodman and Jeff Hornacek.

I will root for whoever the Jazz draft.

[Litany]

From what I have read Jimmer has shown well in workouts and is slated as high as #7 for Golden State. I rate our outside shooting as a #1 weakness. Only Hayward worries anybody. Jimmer is the best in the draft. Therefore, the ? about Jimmer is he worth the #3 pick. Knight is nowhere close. Knight will not contribute at a high level to any team next year. He is not that good. Maybe in 2-3 years. I want to win next year.

My question on Williams is can he play defense at SF. If not, that makes him a small PF. If he is available, do we sit him on the bench? Do we trade Jefferson and hope Favors can play center? Nothing makes him an obvious #3 pick if he can't play both ways at SF.

I like Jimmer for his shooting. Way ahead of any other guard in this draft. You got a criticism I like Jimmer. I admit it. Who else fills our void of a 3 point threat in this draft to open up the inside for Favors? Nobody. Burks is mid-range slasher. Nobody else but Jimmer. I sure don't want to watch Miles clanking 3's for another year. You avoid addressing the weakness I point out. You really want Knight who is 2-3 years away? I don't want to wait for him or Biyombo to develop.

We resign Kirilenko we don' t need front court help. I say Jimmer and Singleton to address outside shooting and perimeter defense. If that means Jimmer at 3 I'm fine with it. I know he can contribute now, not 2-3 years from now.

After the NBA draft combine a guy from the Jazz FO told Kevin Ferguson at 1320 that Jimmer isn't high on the Jazz radar at all and a few insignificant workouts isn't going to erase concerns people have had about Jimmer that they had from watching him for 4 years at BYU.

He is not way ahead of other guards in the draft. You are high on Jimmer's shooting. Well, did you know that Knight shot better from the 3-pt line in his freshman year than Jimmer did? Jimmer shot 33.3% from the 3-pt line and Knight shot 37.7% from the 3-pt line his freshman year. Yeah, Jimmer improved his shooting and it is at 40% now, but he isn't "way ahead of any other guard in the draft." Knight can and I believe will be just as good of shooter that Jimmer now is, statistics show he will. Go compare Knights stats to D-Wills stats. You don't draft on what they are now, you draft on what they can become, their potential.

I think the major part where you are off is your thinking that the Jazz will in any way be contenders next year. They have a long way to go. You really think that Jimmer Fredette will raise a team from the lottery into a title contender? When did Jimmer become LeBron or Dwight Howard? Seriously, come on man. You can't be serious about this. I am beginning to think that i am being trolled.

Favors and Hayward are going to need time to develop. You need to sit back, relax, and really take in that the Jazz are going to suck for a while. You and other Jazz fans need to be okay with that.

Did you know that OKC won 20 games Kevin Durant's rookie season? 20 GAMES! It takes time. Only after giving him and Westbrook time to develop did they start to make some noise. Durant was drafted in 2007 and it wasn't until 2011 that they got somewhere in the playoffs.

I love Favors and Hayward, I am not quiet about that. But I recognize they will need time to learn and develop and overcome those mistakes that a young player inevitably makes.

I also don't think that Jazz fans realize how much D-Will did to help us win games this year. He was the main reason we were 27-13 to start the season. When he got worn out and his head wasn't in the game we started sucking bad. We didn't win very many games after he left.

I honestly think that we will win 30 games next season if we make the right draft picks this year. I expect that we will be able to start getting somewhere in 2012-2013, but we will start getting somewhere in the playoffs in the 2013-2014 season.

You asked who can open the floor for Favors, well there will be plenty of help. First of all Hayward will help him. He is an excellent perimeter shooter. If Jazz add Knight, that will help open things up as well. If they add Hamilton (39% 3-pt shooter) or K Thompson (40% 3-pt shooter) that will open things up. Burks didn't have as good of a year from 3-pt land this year but last year it was decent (35.5%). So he isn't some scrub.

I know this is really long but it is just getting really tiring seeing how Jimmer fans are handling this. They see the possibility of getting him slip away and they can't accept the thought that the Jazz would pass on him.

If the Jazz draft him at #12 it will be because they believe he is the BPA there. I will support any decision the Jazz FO make. I don't think they will pick Jimmer, but if they do I will cheer him on and hope that he becomes a good player and has success.

[Litany]

Jimmer fans want to use Jimmers college stats to guarantee that he is going to have an amazing career in the NBA. Well look at this advanced stats breakdown. This article at ESPN shows the top 10 players that can be compared statistically to Jimmer. NONE of them were selected in the top 10. They were anywhere from 11-45:

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... next-level

The 10 players are:

B.J. Armstrong
Dana Barros
Randolph Childress
Travis Diener
Litterial Green
Scott Haffner
Lucious Harris
Allan Houston
Steve Nash
Khalid Reeves

You make him sound like a sure thing and like it or not, he isn't. He has a lot of question marks about him and we don't know what he will be.

From article:

Jimmer Fredette led the NCAA in scoring as a senior, averaging 28.9 points per game. But scoring doesn't necessarily translate to NBA success.

Plenty of scoring leaders went on to tremendous NBA careers -- Oscar Robertson and Rick Barry, to name a few -- but many never made it to the league.

Currently, there are only a few active players who won a Division I scoring title, including Stephen Curry (2008-09 at Davidson), Reggie Williams (2006-07, 2007-08 at VMI) and Kurt Thomas (1994-95 at TCU). Recent scoring leaders who were highly drafted but did not pan out include Adam Morrison (No. 3 in 2006) and Courtney Alexander (No. 13 in 2000).

When comparing Fredette to his peers of recent seasons, there are two main points to consider: (1) Fredette is a 22-year-old senior and, (2) he measured at 6-foot-2 ½, which makes him either an undersized shooting guard or an unproven point guard at the NBA level.
Scoring 18.7 points per game for his career does place him toward the top of point guards, but is he a point guard? If he is an off-guard, scoring 18.7 points per game is not as impressive.

Fredette’s deep shooting is a huge strength, and his 39.4 career 3-point percentage at BYU is good, regardless of whether he is classified as a point guard or shooting guard. It is the rest of his game that raises questions. He had a career pure point rating (PPR) of minus-0.2 -- hardly indicative of a point guard. His defensive and rebounding numbers were both quite poor. And taking more than 24 minutes to get a steal and more than 11 minutes to get a rebound aren't indicative of someone who can help if he's not making shots.

On the surface, it's easy to find differences with many of these players, but the point of looking for similar players is to get a class of them to judge the odds of success. On this list, there is one all-time great in Nash, and there are a few players who were starters or regulars for years in the league. But there are also some underachievers, including Childress and Reeves, who were drafted in the mid-first round, where Fredette is being projected by many.

Of these, Nash is the most intriguing because he turned into one of the best players in the NBA after leading his unsung Santa Clara team to surprising success. Nash had to score a lot in college, but he later transformed into one of the greatest playmakers in NBA history. Will Fredette do the same?

It's always dangerous to bet that anyone will do something as special as Nash. Whereas Nash became a better point guard as he progressed through college, Fredette became a bigger scorer. By the time Nash was a senior, he was getting an assist every 5.6 minutes. Fredette got an assist every 8.3 minutes as a senior and never was better than one every 6.7 minutes throughout his college career.

Fredette has been compared to Curry because both shoot from deep and neither was a clear point guard entering the NBA draft. Curry shot a little better from behind the 3-point arc, 41.2 percent to 39.4, and shot it more often. Curry was also a better overall shooter, with a 58 effective field goal percentage in college while Fredette was at 54 percent.

But Curry, facing questions about his transition to the NBA, worked on being a point guard in his junior year and improved his PPR (pure point rating) from minus-2.0 to 0.0. Fredette's PPR actually dropped his senior year, from 1.1 to minus-1.8.

And as a freshman, Curry was dominant, scoring 21.5 points per game, while shooting 40.8 percent on 3-pointers on a team that went 29-5. Fredette played 18.5 minutes per game and scored 7.0 points per game (fifth on BYU) on a 27-8 team. Curry burst onto the national scene as a 19-year-old freshman. A lot of scouts didn't pay much attention to Fredette until he was a 21-year-old junior. This leaves little reason to believe Fredette can be as good as Curry in the NBA.

Dan Dickau (Gonzaga), another mid-major combo guard who scored more than 20 points per game as a senior, may represent the low expectation for Fredette. Dickau, who debuted in the NBA at age 23 after sitting out a transfer season, didn't play as much early in his college career as Fredette, but he also shot better and didn't shoot as often as the BYU star.

Fredette played 1,323 minutes in his senior season and took 765 field goal attempts. That’s a shot every 1.7 minutes! Fredette was a scorer in college, a great scorer, but his pure point rating is indicative of his desire to shoot before he passes. His rebounding numbers aren’t special and his defense is poor.

Superficially, Fredette’s scoring volume has inflated his value to the point where he may be a lottery pick. His ceiling is lower than others because of his age, and his ability to develop into a passer is in question. When evaluating the entire package, Fredette projects better to the NBA as a late first-round or early second-round pick, given his one specialty skill. That way, he can begin to carve out a career as a designated shooter, with a chance to improve his overall game.

[ColdBlue]

The title of this thread and the OP reminds me of something like:

"I'm not a racist... but"

[BringtheD]

The op is wrong but opinionated for better or worse. One factual error is that Sac is choosing at #7 and not GSW. I don't think Jimmer is a fit for the Kings, as he adds nothing to their team, they already have Tyreke who was not only a rookie of the year, but matches styles with Jimmer too. Although Sac needs to clarify their needs in the backcourt, if they pick Jimmer I don't think they would be addressing their needs in this draft, because if they do take a backcourt player it would be a mistake if they didn't take someone who already compliments the skillset of who they already have, instead of picking up someone with a similar skillset which wouldn't be addressing their needs. I think that everyone knows that Jimmer really needs the right situation to be his best, it's probably not as important as anything for anyone in this draft as it is for Jimmer that he goes to the right situation. In Utah, he already has a home, I think he is worth the #7 pick but I don't think he fills a need for either Sac of GSW, if that is what the content of this article is meant to imply.

[carrottop12]

The op is wrong but opinionated for better or worse. One factual error is that Sac is choosing at #7 and not GSW. I don't think Jimmer is a fit for the Kings, as he adds nothing to their team, they already have Tyreke who was not only a rookie of the year, but matches styles with Jimmer too. Although Sac needs to clarify their needs in the backcourt, if they pick Jimmer I don't think they would be addressing their needs in this draft, because if they do take a backcourt player it would be a mistake if they didn't take someone who already compliments the skillset of who they already have, instead of picking up someone with a similar skillset which wouldn't be addressing their needs. I think that everyone knows that Jimmer really needs the right situation to be his best, it's probably not as important as anything for anyone in this draft as it is for Jimmer that he goes to the right situation. In Utah, he already has a home, I think he is worth the #7 pick but I don't think he fills a need for either Sac of GSW, if that is what the content of this article is meant to imply.

I'm not sure how tyreke and jimmer are similar at all. Reke is a ball dominant slahser who excels getting into the paint, jimmer is a poor ball handling shooter whose NBA game is going to center around perimeter play. Other than neither of them being true pg's, I think they have very complimentary skills.

[reapaman]

I think the Kings would prefer an unconventional lineup and draft a SF to play alongside evans, thornton, cousins and Dalembert (if he comes back). Leonard would be a good pick because he can compensate for thorntons defensive issues and basically do the dirty work. He's working on his shot and his mechanics looks improved, so if he can shoot with any good effeciency then the kings will be tough to stop offensively. They dont need a traditional pg, because they got more than one guy who can create their own offense.

[superd]

My mistake on the #7 pick. It is Sacramento. I read they would move Evans to SG.
Now I see DraftExpress has Jimmer going to them at 7.

One thing I will admit, players who work hard continue to get better even after they turn pro. Example Michael Jordan as a junior out of college was nowhere near the player he became. I mention this as I read there are a lot of guys in this draft who are hard workers.

I strongly disagree with the guy who wrote we win 30 games next year. Our projected starting five of Jefferson, Favors, Millsap, Harris, and Hayward is pretty good. If we resign Kirilenko and add 2 lottery picks I think we definitely make the playoffs. Our Jazz had too much controversy and too many injuries. What we have now is way better than what Memphis took to the playoffs last year.