2010-11 POY Voting Thread - Congrats Dirk Nowitzki!

[ElGee]

Do "isolations" even counts rotations at the rim?

Why shouldn't they? But I can't say for sure.

Not to mention, c'mon, not including forced turnovers is huge.

Those are included, they just not listed separately.

And that said, he's 70th in the league?

How many players are in the league? And I would question their measurements, if Nowitzki would be among the Top10 or so.

Sorry, I'm not seeing the huge gap you're portraying here...

Well, he is 0.08 points per play better than average, which makes him for sure positive. He has clearly a positive defensive RAPM. You are coming up with him being negative, that's why I asked that question.

Yes, and there are margins of error both ways with my sample an with RAPM.

As for synergy, having him be 0.08 points per play better than average IN THOSE SITUATIONS doesn't even necessarily contradict what I have in those situations: For instance, in this year's playoffs opponents shot .419 against Dirk and he surrendered 3.2 FTA's/100 on top of that (league avg was 4.1). So already you have a guy right around average.

Add in *rebounding* differences AND turnovers and there's your difference between narrowly above average and slightly below average.

What does Synergy track if you completely miss an assignment and the other team gets a layup?

[Gongxi]

Dirk played out of his mind half the playoffs (more than half actually).
The difference in PER between Dirk and Wade in '06 is smaller than between LeBron and Dirk in 11, but in both cases there was statistical superiority, there is also another very important stat which is win shares, and the difference is more apparent there.
Dirk played 73 games, LeBron 79, 6 games less than LeBron, same difference between Dirk (81)and Wade (75)in 2006, that throws your argument out of the window.
Really, there is no conssistency in your picks other than your opinion of who played better, and based on that you really have no leg to stand on against the Dirk pick.

Win shares suck. Wade in 2006 played better than Dirk in 2011 in the playoffs, and Dirk in 2006 wasn't as far ahead of Wade as LeBron was Dirk in 2011. It's pretty clear.

IF Dirk was as far ahead of Wade as LeBron was Dirk in 2006, and IF Dirk in 2011 played as well as Wade did in 2006, you'd have a leg to stand on, but they didn't, so you don't. It's really just that simple. I mean, you don't even understand the games played point, so I'm not sure if you even know what you're talking about.

You want this to be about 2006 Wade vs 2011 Dirk, but unfortunately for your argument, we're not comparing them. We're comparing 2006 Wade to 2006 Dirk, and 2011 Dirk to 2011 LeBron. Do you know that? Do you know what's being compared?

Well, I count the playoffs twice as heavily as the regular season. Still, a close year all around.

Ok, then:

Nowitzki: 27.6 PER, 0.270 WS/48
Wade: 27.3 PER, 0.239 WS/48
Bryant: 26.7 PER, 0.202 WS/48
James: 26.8 PER, 0.206 WS/48

Looks to me as Nowitzki wins in 2006, when we value playoffs twice as much as regular season, but you had Bryant, Wade and James ahead of Nowitzki.

Sure, I guess if we were just using PER. Do you think PER has a margin of error within 0.3?

Ah, when Dirk is better, he's just better. When LeBron is better, there are rational justifications for it.

There are rational justifications for Nowitzki being better at that stuff than James, we can even see that in the result of the teams when they play with and without said players. I provided the data for that already.

James: 25.9 PER, 0.227 WS/48
Nowitzki: 24.1 PER, 0.212 WS/48

James is clearly better in PER; but Nowitzki makes it MUCH MORE closer in WS/48.

So, can I take it that you are basing this just off of boxscore stats? Or do you take impact evaluation via +/- numbers into account?

Nah, don't like +/-. I do like defense, though. So you had explanations for why when LeBron was better at something, it didn't really matter, or wasn't as big of a deal as one wouldd think. Are there the same type of stipulations for when Dirk is better at something? I'm curious. Or why would you include only those caveats for when LeBron appeared to be better? Any reason?

Maybe you need some of those to actual fix your communication problems?

Is English your first language?

, why would there be such a huge divergence in their PERs? What is the justification- that ultimately explains away and favors Dirk- for that, I wonder.

So, it is solely based upon PER? Nothing else matters? In that case I ask why Bryant was ahead of Nowitzki in 2007 too? Based on your "playoffs twice as much value":

Did I say that? Or did I ask why the difference would be so large if- as you're telling us- Dirk actually outplayed LeBron in the regular season. I just wanted your analysis of it. Can you tell us? Small differences among like-impacting players are to be expected, but...so large. Why is that? Can you tell us?

Nowitzki: 26.6 PER, 0.256 WS/48
Bryant: 25.9 PER, 0.190 WS/48

Hmm. That's not quite as large as we saw this year? Or was it?

Well, again you came up with not a good enough explanation to make your voting look consistent. Thus SRV is still correct.

Well, again you're wrong. But thank you, Dirk's lawyer. Are you German? I wonder if you have a little bias creeping in. Nah.

[Doctor MJ]

So why not lead the way, by example?

I didn't feel that I was particularly personal with you, yet you're now being specifically personal about my posting history in a public forum.

While asking me not to reply publicly to that.

Huh.

Y'know what? I apologize. It was late at night, and when I started writing my response to you it wasn't as personal. I woke up this morning and regretted what I had written. Clearly I'm irritated with you and that's causing me to act in a way that's not very constructive.

I'll let your responses be the last public statements on this stuff.

Doc

[Doctor MJ]

Hey guys,

At this point I'm guessing discussion is winding down on this discussion, but people pointing out the negative tension in the thread are right, and I'll admit to being swept up in it myself.

For any continuing discussion here, and in general with projects on this board we need to keep things more positive or else people aren't going to want to keep participating. I want people to quit it with the mocking of others. If there's more of this, I will take mod action.

Doc

[_SRV_]

Dirk played out of his mind half the playoffs (more than half actually).
The difference in PER between Dirk and Wade in '06 is smaller than between LeBron and Dirk in 11, but in both cases there was statistical superiority, there is also another very important stat which is win shares, and the difference is more apparent there.
Dirk played 73 games, LeBron 79, 6 games less than LeBron, same difference between Dirk (81)and Wade (75)in 2006, that throws your argument out of the window.
Really, there is no conssistency in your picks other than your opinion of who played better, and based on that you really have no leg to stand on against the Dirk pick.

Win shares suck. Wade in 2006 played better than Dirk in 2011 in the playoffs, and Dirk in 2006 wasn't as far ahead of Wade as LeBron was Dirk in 2011. It's pretty clear.

IF Dirk was as far ahead of Wade as LeBron was Dirk in 2006, and IF Dirk in 2011 played as well as Wade did in 2006, you'd have a leg to stand on, but they didn't, so you don't. It's really just that simple. I mean, you don't even understand the games played point, so I'm not sure if you even know what you're talking about.

You want this to be about 2006 Wade vs 2011 Dirk, but unfortunately for your argument, we're not comparing them. We're comparing 2006 Wade to 2006 Dirk, and 2011 Dirk to 2011 LeBron. Do you know that? Do you know what's being compared?

I'm well aware of the comparison, I'm not arguing your preference, I'm arguing you mocking the selection when you yourself were doing the same thing in another comparison.
Each is entitled to his opinion, you discredited others' opinion while being inconsistent yourself.

[Dr Positivity]

Yes, I mock it when it's driven by narrative. Which is why I didn't like the voting happening right after the Finals.

And no, all metrics don't support you at all. For example, you used PER. The difference in 2006 between #1 (Dirk) and #4 (Wade) was very small. And Wade played out of his mind in half of the playoffs, which I've been very open about counting twice as much. He certainly had a better postseason than Dirk, did he not?

Now, LeBron was not neck and neck with Dirk during the season. He was far ahead. And he played more games, which I've also stressed as critical in this project, which is why Shaq didn't get my #1 for like 6 straight years, as he would've had he been more healthy. But **** it, no reason to look into that, easier to just say I'm 'inconsistent' without opening your **** eyes and reading, so skip that. Who wasn't LeBron really far ahead of? Dwight. Dwight didn't play badly at all, but he just plain didn't play enough in the playoffs to overcome what LeBron was doing.

And Dirk didn't either.

According to who? Can we not give Dirk close to as many points for winning 57 with the Mavs than Lebron winning 58 with the Heat? You can't argue Lebron did it with less talent. If we go by who's more important to their team (not a metric I love), Dirk comes out far ahead.

I had Lebron slightly ahead of Dirk after the regular season and playoffs. But I care way more about the difference between Dirk and Lebron in the Finals than Lebron's gap over him the rest of the year. The difference between Dirk and LBJ in the Finals was HUGE - and guess what, it decided who won the title.

I generally agree with your premise about not just giving it to the best player on the title team, but the goal is to win the championship, and in the case of Lebron vs Dirk, Dirk beating down LBJ on the biggest stage is why the Mavs were crowned and the Heat were not. I'm not giving #1 to LBJ when he turned into a human turtle when his team needed him most - while Dirk was consistently huge. As for Dwyane Wade, it comes down to his ECF vs Dirk's WCF for me. Can't put him over Dirk when he stunk up a series.

[Sedale Threatt]

I had Lebron slightly ahead of Dirk after the regular season and playoffs. But I care way more about the difference between Dirk and Lebron in the Finals than Lebron's gap over him the rest of the year. The difference between Dirk and LBJ in the Finals was HUGE - and guess what, it decided who won the title.

Very well put. Yeah, the fact that Dallas won the championship impacted my vote. Not for the mere fact that they won, but rather, how spectacular Nowitzki was en route to the championship. He had a direct and indisputable impact on how this year's NBA season will be recorded in the history books. And so, in his own way, did LeBron. That matters, and it can't be dismissed as mere "narrative."

[ElGee]

Leaving aside that you think the difference between these two players in the Finals was huge, Why are the Finals more important than the Conference Finals (to all)?

[Sedale Threatt]

Do you think it's wrong to give the Finals added importance because of the stakes?

[RocketPower23]

I'm still struggling to see why James played so poorly in the Finals. You can sometimes see it with matchup problems and what not, and not to disrespect the Mavs and their defensive effort (which was excellent), but we're not talking about an elite defense where a player of James' impact can't impose his will on the game. I've never seen a superstar of LeBron calibre shrink so much and have it done on the biggest stage possible. I guess that doesn't mean as much to some people, but to other's (including myself) it matters a whole lot.

[Dr Positivity]

It depends who the opponents are. In 07 the Spurs performances in the 2nd round was more important than the Finals. This year beating the Bulls and Mavs were close to as important and both Wade and Lebron went 1 for 2. Lebron's bad series had him put much less pressure on the defense, allowed the Mavs to shift their defense to guard Wade more than him and keep the zone going, and then he stopped guarding Terry the last 3 games - and in my opinion, the Mavs series held more weight than the Bulls one. Better team and it's the Finals where the title is on the line

[Dr Positivity]

I'm still struggling to see why James played so poorly in the Finals. You can sometimes see it with matchup problems and what not, and not to disrespect the Mavs and their defensive effort (which was excellent), but we're not talking about an elite defense where a player of James' impact can't impose his will on the game. I've never seen a superstar of LeBron calibre shrink so much and have it done on the biggest stage possible. I guess that doesn't mean as much to some people, but to other's (including myself) it matters a whole lot.

I'm still going with Lebron feeling his jumpshot was out of rhythm and the entire Dallas defense being predicated to giving him jumpshots. Lebron got hyperaware of which parts of his game weren't working. Whereas Dirk and Kobe in their two title winning games, were at a point where they could put behind all of their missed shots as meaningless and just keep playing their game

I think Lebron might be David Robinson mentally. Just too smart and aware and thus, handicapped himself by changing and overthinking his game. I also think Lebron and Robinson are just not as fundamentally sound as some of the all-time great players though, or in this case, Dirk and Hakeem. Dirk and Hakeem were more mentally locked in, but they also had more pure skill and fundamentals to take teams down low and make sure it goes in.

[Gongxi]

Dirk played out of his mind half the playoffs (more than half actually).
The difference in PER between Dirk and Wade in '06 is smaller than between LeBron and Dirk in 11, but in both cases there was statistical superiority, there is also another very important stat which is win shares, and the difference is more apparent there.
Dirk played 73 games, LeBron 79, 6 games less than LeBron, same difference between Dirk (81)and Wade (75)in 2006, that throws your argument out of the window.
Really, there is no conssistency in your picks other than your opinion of who played better, and based on that you really have no leg to stand on against the Dirk pick.

Win shares suck. Wade in 2006 played better than Dirk in 2011 in the playoffs, and Dirk in 2006 wasn't as far ahead of Wade as LeBron was Dirk in 2011. It's pretty clear.

IF Dirk was as far ahead of Wade as LeBron was Dirk in 2006, and IF Dirk in 2011 played as well as Wade did in 2006, you'd have a leg to stand on, but they didn't, so you don't. It's really just that simple. I mean, you don't even understand the games played point, so I'm not sure if you even know what you're talking about.

You want this to be about 2006 Wade vs 2011 Dirk, but unfortunately for your argument, we're not comparing them. We're comparing 2006 Wade to 2006 Dirk, and 2011 Dirk to 2011 LeBron. Do you know that? Do you know what's being compared?

I'm well aware of the comparison, I'm not arguing your preference, I'm arguing you mocking the selection when you yourself were doing the same thing in another comparison.
Each is entitled to his opinion, you discredited others' opinion while being inconsistent yourself.

And I just explained to you that I didn't do the same thing, and in fact was not inconsistent. Mainly because everyone can agree that the gap between LeBron and Dirk in the regular season in 2011 was larger than the gap between Dirk and Wade in 2006 and the gap between Wade and Dirk in the playoffs was larger in 2006 was larger than the gap between Dirk and LeBron in the playoffs in 2011. If those weren't true, you'd have a point, but since they are, all you're doing is whining.

Do you think it's wrong to give the Finals added importance because of the stakes?

Aren't the stakes just as important? You either get eliminated or you win. No one gets to the Finals without getting through three rounds first. At least, not for almost 30 years.

[Gongxi]

I'm still struggling to see why James played so poorly in the Finals. You can sometimes see it with matchup problems and what not, and not to disrespect the Mavs and their defensive effort (which was excellent), but we're not talking about an elite defense where a player of James' impact can't impose his will on the game. I've never seen a superstar of LeBron calibre shrink so much and have it done on the biggest stage possible. I guess that doesn't mean as much to some people, but to other's (including myself) it matters a whole lot.

I'm still going with Lebron feeling his jumpshot was out of rhythm and the entire Dallas defense being predicated to giving him jumpshots. Lebron got hyperaware of which parts of his game weren't working. Whereas Dirk and Kobe in their two title winning games, were at a point where they could put behind all of their missed shots as meaningless and just keep playing their game

I think Lebron might be David Robinson mentally. Just too smart and aware

I don't have a better explanation, but this I doubt.

[Dr Positivity]

And I just explained to you that I didn't do the same thing, and in fact was not inconsistent. Mainly because everyone can agree that the gap between LeBron and Dirk in the regular season in 2011 was larger than the gap between Dirk and Wade in 2006 and the gap between Wade and Dirk in the playoffs was larger in 2006 was larger than the gap between Dirk and LeBron in the playoffs in 2011. If those weren't true, you'd have a point, but since they are, all you're doing is whining.

Not sure I get your argument if you're trying to point out a contradiction. The 06 and 11 votes look consistent to me. 06 Dirk and 11 Lebron finish 3rd in MVP voting and then have a great 3 rounds and then turtle and blow the Finals. 06 Wade and 11 Dirk finish 6th in MVP votes, play great for 3 rounds and then destroy their opponent in the Finals to finish #1 to their #2. It's the exact same scenario and vote. The argument it seems to me, is to say both are wrong or both are right.

[Dr Positivity]

But to answer your claims

- Gap between LBJ/Dirk in regular season in 2011 larger than Dirk/Wade in 2006. Hard to say whether that's true or not. 06 Dirk was his best regular season statistically. If the former gap is greater, it's by a small amount.

- Gap between Wade/Dirk in 06 was larger than Dirk/LBJ in 11. Definitely disagree. Dirk was insanely good the first 3 rounds in 06, as good as the first 3 rounds this year. LBJ was good too the first 3 rounds, but at best that's a draw. In the Finals both come up short compared to their opponent but Dirk still puts up 30 pts in Game 3 and 29 in Game 6 and big FGA every game, he wasn't invisible like Lebron. Again, at best a draw, in my opinion

[Gongxi]

And I just explained to you that I didn't do the same thing, and in fact was not inconsistent. Mainly because everyone can agree that the gap between LeBron and Dirk in the regular season in 2011 was larger than the gap between Dirk and Wade in 2006 and the gap between Wade and Dirk in the playoffs was larger in 2006 was larger than the gap between Dirk and LeBron in the playoffs in 2011. If those weren't true, you'd have a point, but since they are, all you're doing is whining.

Not sure I get your argument if you're trying to point out a contradiction. The 06 and 11 votes look consistent to me. 06 Dirk and 11 Lebron finish 3rd in MVP voting and then have a great 3 rounds and then turtle and blow the Finals. 06 Wade and 11 Dirk finish 6th in MVP votes, play great for 3 rounds and then destroy their opponent in the Finals to finish #1 to their #2. It's the exact same scenario and vote. The argument it seems to me, is to say both are wrong or both are right.

I'm not pointing a contradiction. SVB is trying to point one out in my voting in those years. But, because of the reasons I stated, he's wrong. If he ignores those, sure, I guess he's right. If my Mom had balls, she'd be my Dad.

But to answer your claims

- Gap between LBJ/Dirk in regular season in 2011 larger than Dirk/Wade in 2006. Hard to say whether that's true or not. 06 Dirk was his best regular season statistically. If the former gap is greater, it's by a small amount.

- Gap between Wade/Dirk in 06 was larger than Dirk/LBJ in 11. Definitely disagree. Dirk was insanely good the first 3 rounds in 06, as good as the first 3 rounds this year. LBJ was good too the first 3 rounds, but at best that's a draw. In the Finals both come up short compared to their opponent but Dirk still puts up 30 pts in Game 3 and 29 in Game 6 and big FGA every game, he wasn't invisible like Lebron. Again, at best a draw, in my opinion

But Wade had a- literally- historic Finals and ECF (against a superlative defense). Wade's performance those last two series in 2006 were quite simply two of the best playoff series anyone has ever played, both in the top 20. Can anyone- 2006 or 2011- claim similar?

[ronnymac2]

I agree that LBJ pulled a D-Rob in the Finals in that he transformed himself into a role player.

However, LBJ doesn't have a history of that like Robinson did. That's what makes his performance unprecedentedly confusing...

I do believe this vote was a bit narrative driven. People really think Dirk has become THAT much better THIS year. I can't pull my thoughts around this.

...Against Golden State, Nowitzki's former coach Don Nelson sent so many defenders to fluster him that it looked like he was being defended by- warning, spoiler alert!- the Super 8 monster. Nowitzki the 7-footer hadn't yet learned how to take advantage of his height when defended by small forwards in the midpost, Dirk V.2007's fatal flaw.

What is the point of being that tall- of having that immense advantage- when it can be used against you?

However, Dirk did work, and since then, that defensive blueprint hasn't phased him one bit come playoff time. A swarming defense became a failing strategy against Nowitzki. He torched New Orleans for 26.8 ppg on almost 59 percent true shooting in 2008. He averaged 4 assists and 2 turnover per game. He added 12 rebounds per contest.

In 2009 against the Spurs and the Nuggets, he dropped 26.8 ppg on 63.5 percent true shooting. In 2010, he put up 26.7 ppg on over 64 percent true shooting against the Spurs. This past year, he averaged 27.7 ppg on 60.9 percent true shooting, with lesser rebounding and passing numbers than in past playoff years.

Where exactly did he improve this year? Well, he marginally improved his sense of timing and court awareness (though he never lacked in court awareness anyway). Other than that, he's the same player he's been for the past four years: a championship-caliber offensive Constant.

Dirk Nowitzki, like most great players, morphed into a champion long before he won a championship.

Now, I'll readily admit that I probably underrated Dirk from 2008 on as well. I'll check what I wrote in the RPOY threads for him to be sure just how much.

But I feel like people think that he JUST learned how to space the floor this year, produce great in the mid-range, and hit clutch shots, when he's been doing this for a little while now. I'm pretty sure their are clutch stats to back up Dirk being clutch before this year.

Only NOW is he getting credit for it, bur people are acting like he transformed, when in reality, his team just got better at taking advantage of what he brings.

[JordansBulls]

I'm with regulator - the tone in this thread leaves a lot to be desired.

I originally had Nowitzki 4th, as late as publishing my ballot in the thread. I changed it in an edit. Why? As I said, 2-4 this year is a mess, they are super close, and I was trying to be historically consistent with my own votes by rewarding a great offensive cog (eg Rick Barry 1975) as a tiebreaker. I'm still not sure how I feel about it, but I'm sure I don't think Dirk is a player than DH, LBJ or Wade.

Yes, I think Dirk has been underrated in the past. For me, the actual positions don't mean much versus how I evaluate a player. Dirk 06 is comparable to Dirk 11 to me (better by a shade?) Dirk 11 is a different player because he gives you better/different offense.

IMO, Wade, and maybe Howard, are also better than Dirk. Wade had a number of issues, and Howard I'm just not 100% sure about -- for instance, was his defensive effort lacking a little this RS? I thought so. So at the end of the day, I rewarded Dirk, again trying to consistent about offensive cogs at that level, and I'm not sure it's 100% correct.

But man, I'm so sick and tired of team success being discussed OUTSIDE of team analysis (in this case, Carlisle, Chandler, Terry, Kidd, Marion, Barea, even Stevenson and Peja). If anything, I'd want Dirk voted lower than higher. But I understand that other posters don't use the same criteria. That circumstantial "value" is important to them, and thus Wade/James diminish each other to a degree.

And the "how did you finish" syndrome that sweeps everyone up. As if Kobe averaged 50 a game vs. Dallas and LA won (could have easily been up 2-1 anyway) and then Pau averaged 40-20 for the last 2 rounds, he would "clearly" be the POY and win the ballot. Guess what? Sucking in the second round also can end your season. Some guys aren't lucky enough to be saved.

Still, I'm with Gongxi in that it feels like a Retro Team of the Year w Best Player (RTOYBP) sometimes. I don't really understand why there is such a bias against people who have their *team* lose pre-playoffs, 1st, 2nd or 3rd round. If Dallas played the 04 Pistons in the FINAL Finals, and lost, would Dirk still be an "obvious" No. 1 to you guys?

Dirk outplayed ever star he met in the playoffs this year with him being the only star on his team and including him missing 3 other players on his team.

[ronnymac2]

Yeah, just as I thought, I messed up a bit.

I didn't bash Dirk from 2008-2010, but I made some egregious mistakes, such as putting Duncan above Dirk in 2008 because I liked Duncan's combination of offense and defense more than Dirk's offense (in reality- and I even said this back then- Duncan's offense wasn't an offensive Constant anymore, and I'd prefer an offensive Constant like Dirk over a defensive Constant like TD who could only play in limited minutes anyway).

I screwed up a little in 2009 as well. Dwight wasn't playing like a top-20ish player all-time back then like he is now. I see Dirk and Dwight today as extremely close players today. Yet I put Dwight above Dirk, mostly on the basis of Dwight's team success. Hell, Paul should have been over Dwight, too.

I don't think I screwed up badly in 2010, though I should have given Dirk more consideration.


Still, my point stands. Nowitzki has been performing a little better than I thought at those times, meaning he was more of a top-4 or 5 player than the top-6 or top-7 I had him. And he was in the top-5 this year as well. Marginal difference between 2010 Dirk and 2011 Dirk.

Biggest difference was that the best player on earth committed my mortal sin, and Dirk won the title, allowing him to get ahead of a player he was close to in 2011 Dwight. Thus, Dirk was number two for me this year.

Again, my bad for underrating Nowitzki those years. This isn't me retroactively giving Dirk credit, nor is it me bashing 2011 Dirk. Just me saying I was wrong by a marginal amount in 2008-2010 about Nowitzki.