Halcyon wrote:Vesely does have the potential to be a "3 and D" type of player, with his length and decent shooting mechanics. However I'd prefer more of a sure thing with that pick though....
I keep hearing this latter point as we head to the draft and I do not get it. If we had the #1 or #2 pick I'd agree, and happily take Williams or Kantner. We don't have the #1 or #2 pick, we've got the 6th, there are no sure things in this draft, and no "more of a sure things" than Vesely at 6. There are plenty of guys that are probably neutral risk compared to Vesely, but there's no way in hell anyone's convincing me that Biyombo's more of a sure thing, that Leonard is, that Johnny V(now apparently not coming till '12 which wouldn't bother me since I believe we need to stink one more year and get a pick of elite status in what could be a truly outstanding draft in '12 pending labor decisions) is, Klay, or Marcus Morris, or whomever. How in hell are we negating risk with the pick at 6? We aren't. No matter what decision we make, we are inviting risk. We trade up to 2 or 3, we lose the value of 18 and/or McGee add a huge risk in the pick of a player that is by no means a lock to be legit, and may be even less of a lock than McGee himself, we pick Leonard, he may be a liability his entire career outside of the defensive end and rebounding end of the game, Biyombo is basically raw as hell, and had awful workouts, Johnny V isnt coming for a year, and is basically speculation on a tech stock in '98, you may be getting the real deal, you may be throwing your money away, Klay will be useful on the offensive end, that's it (we already have a sure thing that plays the same role and better), Morris has limitations that suggest he'll never be better than competent, though he almost certainly won't bust (so he almost matches the idea of minimizes risk, he does, to a degree, but he also will NEVER be good or great (I reserve the right to be wrong about this, i just think its very unlikely that any of us are about him when it comes to his upside). There may be one or two other guys too there, but the bulk of them we will not pick regardless, so they aren't options to discuss.
So to me, there isn't any justification for passing on Vesely here because you'd rather get more of a sure thing. There isn't more of a sure thing in this draft really, and the one or two that might be, are either unavailable because of the trade cost or unavailable because they duplicate Wall. So how do you minimize risk? You don't, unless you want to use the 6 pick on a guy you could probably get in free agency for the MLE. Don't you want to use the 6 at the bare minimum for a guy that potentially has the chance to be at least better than a MLE caliber player (or worse). Vesely has a ton of knocks, but in the end, he has a fantastic motor, a lot of professional experience, and a lot of potential. He is one of the best options at 6 if Kantner isn't there, probably one of the best two or three options. Period. If you want to trade down, so you can have have another dart or two to throw in this draft, I get it, and i like the idea, there are six or seven guys going between 10 and 21 that i really like, and think are only a little bit lower upside, higher risk than Vesely, so I'd like that idea, but if you're staying at 6, I don't see any argument that justifies not taking Vesely at 6 because he's risky.
poor Blazers...
