Slather me, Lather me, Blather me - 2011 Draft Thread 5

[dobrojim]

I wouldn't have been upset if he was chosen instead of Singleton, but I'm perfectly happy seeing what Singleton has, because if he's as good as advertised, he brings needed and diverse position defense, and he too may develop beyond one-dimensionality.

+1

[RT31]

Does anyone else think Cleveland screwed the pooch with their draft picks? Irving might not even be the best point guard in this class and he got taken with the top pick, 11% body fat and all. They would have stood to have gotten Williams at #1, then JV or Knight at #4. They talked about how there was no guarantee Knight will be there at 4, but that point was made moot when it was rumored that Utah was going to take Kanter.

Oh well, I think Williams with any other combo and you would have said Cleveland might make the playoffs in the next year or two.

I agree with you on this one. I thought Cleveland should have gone big at #1 (Williams, Kanter), and taken the PG that dropped to them at #4. There were 3 (4 if you include Jimmer) PGs that are starters in this league, Knight, Walker, Irving. 1 of them is going to drop to #4, actually, they all dropped.

Williams & Knight/Walker is better than Irving & Thompson.

[pancakes3]

i thought so too but it was for a long while coming. with the glut of guards, lack of tier 1 players, and the current landscape of the center position, i thought going Williams/Knight or Kanter/Knight was the wiser choice even if irving himself is a superior talent (i don't even see THAT much.)

[Kanyewest]

Terpman, I've thought about it a couple days and I agree with you, 100%.

Faried will be a much better player than Singleton or Vesely.

Wait wasn't Terpman saying that the Wizards are one of the worst shooting teams in the league- how does Faried solve that???

[The Consiglieri]

i would love to know who EG would of drafted at 18 had the Knicks taken Singleton

I wouldn't, lol, that would really suck. That being said, reliable sources were saying the top of our eval'd guys we'd mocked to be potentially there at 18 were:

Kenneth Faried

Jordan Hamilton

Donatas Motiejunas

I think:

Tobias Harris

Justin Harper

Marshon Brooks.

If Singleton was the pick for the Knicks the sense i got, pre-coach trashing him rumors, was that Faried or Hamilton or Motiejunas would be the pick, with Faried the most likely.

[Rafael122]

I think we would have taken Donnie Mo at #18.

[sfam]

Just a note about Jonas Valenciunas, I'm in Lithuania today and got to talk to a few Lithuanians about him. Eveveryone knew about his NBA draft selection - that was big news here. Most seem to know JV from his 2 under 19 championships. They also seemed surprised at how good he's gotten. Would have asked more but I'd be a Toronto fan then. Also, turns out the US Youth team is here for a match tomorrow night. I might have a chance to catch the second half of that.

[jivelikenice]

Faried is going to be a great rebounder and a starter for years. He's way better than Booker or Singleton.

Not just a little better. Way better.

ccj, I admire your conviction and the way in which you stand by your opinions. But it's time for a little reality check. For the past two years, you've been telling us how great DeJuan Blair was going to be and how you were the only person smart enough to recognize that. You said that those teams that passed on Blair in the draft would live to regret it. And most of us have been drinking that Blair kool-aid.

Well, the truth is that DeJuan has just been alright as an NBA player, nothing special. He's averaging 8 pts., 7 rebs. for his 2 yr. career...on a team that's looking for him to step up so that Duncan can get more rest.

And Blair's pretty much been a nonfactor for the Spurs in the playoffs--averaging 4 pts and 3 rebs in 12 mins. Meanwhile, here are some players drafted just before or AFTER Blair (drafted 37th) who are already having more of an impact---Taj Gibson (26); Sam Young (36); Jodie Meeks (41); Marcus Thornton (43); Chase Budinger (44).

So, truth is, despite all of your hubris, DeJuan has simply not lived up to your hype.

BTW, there's absolutely no doubt in my mind that Booker will turn out to be way better than Blair. Not just a little better. Way better.

I can't think of many people on this board who were not in favor of drafting Blair in Rd 2 that year so it wasn't a hidden gem on anyone's part. Following up on what DCZards said, Blair came in and played well in Yr 1 for where he was drafted, but he did not take that next step this past season and it would be difficult to classify it as anything other than a disappointment.

[Rafael122]

Put it this way, Blair is playing like he got picked in the 2nd round. Plus he got out of shape quick towards the end of the year.

[Ed Wood]

To wrap this up I wasn't anticipating a fight breaking out or anything, particularly not between Nate and CCJ because neither of you would instigate one, but just to explain that CCJ tends to use fairly definitive language when making statements about the draft based in equal parts upon a decent track record and upon pretty good sales skills and because I feel like the "how can you be so sure your opinions are right?" question pops up pretty regularly in response. Basically just that debate about the content of anyone's views is fine and productive whereas specifically bringing into play the strength of conviction conveyed by their language doesn't ever really go anywhere.

And this was days ago and on another board but I was kidding about the signature Raf.

Aaaaannnd my guess is Faried was probably the fallback option if Singleton wasn't available at 18, unless the player who fell to 18 rather than Singleton (if it were Leonard, Thompson, one of the Morris bros) was higher on the team's board.

[The Consiglieri]

Does anyone else think Cleveland screwed the pooch with their draft picks? Irving might not even be the best point guard in this class and he got taken with the top pick, 11% body fat and all. They would have stood to have gotten Williams at #1, then JV or Knight at #4. They talked about how there was no guarantee Knight will be there at 4, but that point was made moot when it was rumored that Utah was going to take Kanter.

Oh well, I think Williams with any other combo and you would have said Cleveland might make the playoffs in the next year or two.

I do, Cleveland needed everything, so they could afford to take the best available talent, plus they already had a temp PG option and would likely be top 3-5 awful in the following season. Austin Rivers could be a target for that, but more importantly, I think i would have utilized the #1 pick for a trade down, and traded #4 for Knight. My focus would be moving down a bit, and acquiring depth picks for 11-25, and hopefully a top 3 protected 2012 pick that wasn't protected from 4-12 and beyond.

It really depends on a lot of things, but for me, in the final analysis, i probably would have targeted a PG in a trade down (Knight preferably), if Valunciunas was as good as advertised, i would have chosen him, if not, i would have gone for bulk.

I would not have taken Williams as I dont think williams is a true elite difference maker, and as such, I'd rather have picks in bulk. My objective essentially, would be to do something similar to Minny, or add bulk picks in the teens and try to come away with a mix of hard workers with upside and huge upside guys: Knight and Valunciunas plus picks, or Knight, and an extra 2 picks between 12-24. Damn, I'm babbling, but suffice it to say, my objective would be to try and acquire 3-4 of these guys: Knight, Mirotic, T. Harris, Leonard, N. Cole, J. Hamilton and Singleton/Faried.

Why? I don't think TT or Irving will ever be no doubt about it dominators. I do believe that all the players i have listed either have celings as hig as Irving and TT, or have work rates, and efort and talent that would make them absolutely essential for building a future winner. Id rather have 3-4 of those guys, than the 2 they got, and Id rather have 2-3 of those guys and picks in the future than what they got.

The Sad thing for me is that I think irving will be good, but never great, and that TT will strive to be something better than at best, above average, which simply in't good enough at 4.

In the en, I think I would have tried to engage in trade creep, as the redskins did, and come away with Knight or N. Cole on one hand, draft and stash Mirotic, and then one to two of Harris, Leonard, Hamilton, and the effort fan favorite guy in singleton, or Faried, both guys that would really appeal to a hardworking city sick of selfish, me guys in Cleveland.

[Zonkerbl]

Well, ccj, does that mean you think Faried's rebounding ability will contribute more to the team's success than Singleton's defensive ability?

I guess it depends on Vesely. Is he a three? Then Singleton will be buried on the bench and won't contribute much at all. If you can play Vesely at the four then you can get more out of Singleton. Maybe after dumping Blatche for a future first.

But isn't Faried, a rebounding specialist with limited offensive skills, more or less condemned to a lifetime sixth man role? Or do you see him as a Yoakim Noah type of contributor?

[Nivek]

Wait a minute, are you guys talking about Blair? DeJuan Blair? Hefty guy with arms that go for days and no ACL in either knee?

If so, the descriptions of his play are more insane than the Atlanta news story about the man who got arrested driving naked while smoking meth. Or the one about the volunteer caretaker of a disabled man, who cleaned out the disabled man's bank account and sent his house into foreclosure, except he actually didn't -- the disabled guy just made up the whole story (but not the part about his house being in foreclosure -- that was really happening).

A disappointment? No. Playing like you'd expect a 2nd round pick to play? Hell no.

Blair, so far, has a career PER of 17.4 in more than 3,000 minutes. He's an excellent rebounder at both ends of the floor. He's started more than half his games. The 4-year anticipated value of a 37th pick in the draft is 3.8 Win Shares -- total (in other words, about 0.95 Win Shares per season). In 2 years, Blair has 9.3. His production so far is about what you'd expect from the 3rd or 4th pick in the draft.

Now, he's not super-efficient -- he's right around average. He turns the ball over too much. He was terrific in limited minutes in playoffs during 2010, and he had a bad series this year against Memphis. It happens.

I don't see any honest way of assessing CCJ's views about Blair except to say that he was correct. Passing on him in lottery made sense because of concerns about his knees. Maybe even the first round. But he has been a great pick for the Spurs at 37, and a fantastic value considering how little he gets paid. I don't think he'd have changed the course of the Wizards franchise, but he'd be a valued piece of the future front line had the Wizards picked him.

[Wizardspride]

@CCJ

I wasn't my intent to attack you. I just disagree.

Apologies.

[DCZards]

Wait a minute, are you guys talking about Blair? DeJuan Blair? Hefty guy with arms that go for days and no ACL in either knee?

Yup, that's the same guy I'm talking about. The Blair who was benched last season in favor of a 75 year-old Antonio McDyess and who averaged 3.7 pts and 3.9 rebs in ten games in that "terrific" 2010 playoff performance you referred to. I'm personally not impressed. Those stats (or potential stats) you cite mean nothing if you ain't earning any playing time. However, I read where Coach Pop has told DeJuan to get his butt in shape and he's lost weight. So there's hope.

And, yes, maybe Blair would be an important member of the Zards frontline. But don't be surprised if Seraphin (as well as Booker) end up having better NBA careers.

[Nivek]

Wait a minute, are you guys talking about Blair? DeJuan Blair? Hefty guy with arms that go for days and no ACL in either knee?

Yup, that's the same guy I'm talking about. The Blair who was benched last season in favor of a 75 year-old Antonio McDyess and who averaged 3.7 pts and 3.9 rebs in ten games in that "terrific" 2010 playoff performance you referred to. I'm personally not impressed. Those stats (or potential stats) you cite mean nothing if you ain't earning any playing time. However, I read where Coach Pop has told DeJuan to get his butt in shape and he's lost weight. So there's hope.

I'm talking what he did with the playing time he got. When he was on the floor, he produced at a superb level. I don't put much emphasis on per game stats, which fluctuate with playing time.

And, yes, maybe Blair would be an important member of the Zards frontline. But don't be surprised if Seraphin (as well as Booker) end up having better NBA careers.

Going by draft position, both Seraphin and Booker SHOULD have better NBA careers. They were adjudged on draft day by the collective of NBA decision-makers to be better NBA prospects than Blair. That said, I'd be astonished if Seraphin has even a single NBA season as good as what Blair has done far. Booker could get there -- if he works hard and gets better.

[The Consiglieri]

Faried is going to be a great rebounder and a starter for years. He's way better than Booker or Singleton.

Not just a little better. Way better.

ccj, I admire your conviction and the way in which you stand by your opinions. But it's time for a little reality check. For the past two years, you've been telling us how great DeJuan Blair was going to be and how you were the only person smart enough to recognize that. You said that those teams that passed on Blair in the draft would live to regret it. And most of us have been drinking that Blair kool-aid.

Well, the truth is that DeJuan has just been alright as an NBA player, nothing special. He's averaging 8 pts., 7 rebs. for his 2 yr. career...on a team that's looking for him to step up so that Duncan can get more rest.

And Blair's pretty much been a nonfactor for the Spurs in the playoffs--averaging 4 pts and 3 rebs in 12 mins. Meanwhile, here are some players drafted just before or AFTER Blair (drafted 37th) who are already having more of an impact---Taj Gibson (26); Sam Young (36); Jodie Meeks (41); Marcus Thornton (43); Chase Budinger (44).

So, truth is, despite all of your hubris, DeJuan has simply not lived up to your hype.

BTW, there's absolutely no doubt in my mind that Booker will turn out to be way better than Blair. Not just a little better. Way better.

In fairness, I think a lot of us loved Blair, not just CCJ, a lot of us, he was a stud in college, and yep, fit that template CCJ loves that was referenced earlier, hard working scrappers that play bigger, and harder than most, and get more out of there talent than most. I actually think Blair is special, and will be.


The point, in my view, isn't so much how he produced so far, San Antonio is still a team in transition, clearly of two minds on where to go (raced out to a crazy good record and seeming 1 seed, appeared headed to the finals, did they really have the minutes to make blair a priority?), and so his #'s aren't relelvant to any degree as much as his health is. The sense I got was that Blair fell from a top 5-10 grade to a 2nd round grade was because NBA teams felt with bone on bone knee's, his career would be always, a bad plant, pivot, step, foot stepping on his etc away from being permanently retired. instantly.

Can you afford to invest a top 1st rounder, mid or low 1st rounder, or even a 2nd rounder on that? <expletive> no you can't. So we didn't. San Antonio could because they already had a collection of starters of elite quality, a great bench, and players on draft and stash deals in Europe. A 2nd rounder was basically like finding $20 on the sidewalk, free money. For us? Something else entirely.

Always loved Blair, but always felt that he didnt make sense except with a second rounder and even then he carried risk (of course we stupidly sold second rounders, compounding the stupidity). However it doesnt negate the massive risk, and likely frustrating return that existed in the person of Blair, after all, what if you end up building around a guy with knees that could instantly explode at any second, even if the player blew up and became something special, he still could hurt you simply by the timing of said injury. I unerstand the counter argument, all players carry that risk, but that isn't true in the sense that very few players have knees that already are understood to be a massive risk, kind of like flood insurance in Reno, versus flood insurance in New Orleans, inherently different levels of risk. For a team that stinks, versus a team that had a great starting lineup, great bench, and loads of assets developing abroad? Great risk. I hated that we didnt get him, but I did understand why we might pass. It was understandable then, and now, and his success didnt surprise me, I, like a lot of us here, expected it, just as I expect that his career will unfortunately, likely end suddenly, at any time.

[The Consiglieri]

Well, ccj, does that mean you think Faried's rebounding ability will contribute more to the team's success than Singleton's defensive ability?

I guess it depends on Vesely. Is he a three? Then Singleton will be buried on the bench and won't contribute much at all. If you can play Vesely at the four then you can get more out of Singleton. Maybe after dumping Blatche for a future first.

But isn't Faried, a rebounding specialist with limited offensive skills, more or less condemned to a lifetime sixth man role? Or do you see him as a Yoakim Noah type of contributor?

Far be it from me to speak for CCJ, but I've always felt judging from his posts that CCJ believes that Faried is basically going to hit his ceiling potential across the board in terms of his skill set. Be a fiend on the boards, a force on D, and turn his effiency scoring in college (apparently considered a potential NBA liability as it appears he has a rudimentary collection of skills/moves, that are unlikely to be nearly as effective against NBA 3's and 4's and 5's) into at least, a league average tool (to use baseball parlance. If he did all this, at worst, he'd be a very good to above average pro.

The sense I get from CCJ is that he believes he will do all that and more (hinting at a HOF future), and for me anyway, it's a little bit of a stretch to take any prospect and project him to reach the ceiling of his potential in every tool/skill set said player has, particularly when a player has very clear weaknesses and frailities. It's certainly possible, but to suggest this is anything more than a lower end possibility, is a stretch, and to suggest its a probability or in CCJ's case, a seeming certainty, is a little beyond the pale.

For me, I think there's little chance he fails. I just don't know how successfull he'll be, in the end, I'm expecting a Noah, with a slightly better offensive game, and a slightly inferior defensive game, but that's only because like CCJ, i am very impressed with Faried, but even I'd argue that this is just a hunch, and that if i could place odds, i'd have to be honest and say even this very high ceiling is 70/30 against happening, more likely, he beomes an effective league average or above average starter or first off the bench option for his role.

[closg00]

Picked this up from the GB, great little blog

Why Almost Every NBA Team had a Good Draft?

http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/ ... ood-draft/

..and another great blog on the accuracy of the mocks. BTW, draft.nets mocks were more accurate than:
DX and Chad Ford.
http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/ ... ck-drafts/

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Hey look, I don't always agree with CCJ, or usually agree with him (maybe I do, I'm not keeping track) but there's nothing wrong with being less than completely satisfied with the team's decision making during the draft process. CCJ does have a number of qualities that make him good at appreciating particular players and qualities in players that others undervalue (a statistical focus, a preference for decidedly unromantic production, the ability to limit prejudgements based upon physical appearance or perceived athleticism, being a chubby chaser) but even if you don't buy the hype (and I think you're good at this CCJ but also that you're pretty good at self promotion) it's hardly hubris to offer a divergent opinion.

We're all here to waste time talking about a game and CCJ is (in this my endorsement is unqualified, this doesn't count shut up) in that preeminent capacity, good at what he does, and he's pretty good about providing a solid sales pitch for whatever tonic he's peddling.

Now that I'm done with the contentless portion of this post I'd like to say that Richard Hendrix could probably make a roster and provide some utility in a league where Reggie Evans is a precious commodity based entirely on rebounding ability and which counts Hilton Armstrong as a continued member.

edit: Booker and Faried are also players with a different set of somewhat overlapping virtues. Booker may be more mobile and a better defender at the four, and might even be a better scorer ultimately (I don't expect either to be anything more than efficient but limited) but there isn't any one thing Booker does or that I anticipate that he will do, that accomplishes an NBA necessity in the same way Faried's rebounding will. Plus I see Faried as a a player who could fill minutes at and might even ideally be a center whereas Booker is purely a power forward (not a small forward, nope). Faried has an outside chance at becoming a Chuck Hayes quality player, which to me is a legitimate starter in the NBA and an above average starter at that, at probably the hardest position to find such a player. I'd prefer to have Faried, though I am not at all upset to have Booker.

Darn you, Ed! You stole my thoughts (you probably know what my sexy neighbor who I'm old enough to be her dad looks like--if you stole all of them. Hot and she trusts me... I digress).

Richard Hendrix is a guy I think the Wizards should offer a FA contract to for sure. He is a good rebounder and I think has done quite well in Euro ball (compare his stats, team results to Vesely's and Biyombo's and see he's better right now in most comparisons).

Good call, Ed. You probably also know I'm leaving her alone. I've got enough kids and I'm doing things God's way. I'll just keep being a good neighbor.