Slather me, Lather me, Blather me - 2011 Draft Thread 5

[Nivek]

Blair is frequently a matchup nightmare--for his own team. Look at the playoffs where they couldn't play him because of Memphis's height. He's a glen davis type player, good off the bench or in certain matchups, not a full-time starter.

I actually think Big Baby is a more effective player than Dejuan. BB can hit an open j from about 16" with consistency. Blair is strictly a low post threat.

I would love to be a GM in competition with you.

While Davis does have a better jumper than Blair, Blair does everything else as well or better. He's a vastly superior rebounder -- +5.0 rebounds per 36 minutes last season. Blair was awful in the playoffs this season, and played just 12.5 minutes per game in the playoffs. Davis played 21.2 mpg yet the two had about the same per game points and rebounds.

Blair is the better player, and it's not close.

[TGW]

Blair is frequently a matchup nightmare--for his own team. Look at the playoffs where they couldn't play him because of Memphis's height. He's a glen davis type player, good off the bench or in certain matchups, not a full-time starter.

I actually think Big Baby is a more effective player than Dejuan. BB can hit an open j from about 16" with consistency. Blair is strictly a low post threat.

I would love to be a GM in competition with you.

While Davis does have a better jumper than Blair, Blair does everything else as well or better. He's a vastly superior rebounder -- +5.0 rebounds per 36 minutes last season. Blair was awful in the playoffs this season, and played just 12.5 minutes per game in the playoffs. Davis played 21.2 mpg yet the two had about the same per game points and rebounds.

Blair is the better player, and it's not close.

BB was terrible in the playoffs. I was thinking in terms of their actual skillset than what they actually produced this year. BB can hit the open j, and nowadays it seems as though the good bigs can spread the floor. I also think BB is a better, more proven defender.

I would still take BB because I think his skillset is more in-line with today's NBA.

[DCZards]

I would love to be a GM in competition with you.

While Davis does have a better jumper than Blair, Blair does everything else as well or better. He's a vastly superior rebounder -- +5.0 rebounds per 36 minutes last season. Blair was awful in the playoffs this season, and played just 12.5 minutes per game in the playoffs. Davis played 21.2 mpg yet the two had about the same per game points and rebounds.

Blair is the better player, and it's not close.

I might buy the argument that Blair is the better player, but to suggest that "it's not close" is crazy. I think you could make the case either way as far as who you would rather have on your team as a GM. Stats don't take into account things like decision-making, effort, conditioning, practice habits and other important attributes.

[Ed Wood]

BB was terrible in the playoffs. I was thinking in terms of their actual skillset than what they actually produced this year. BB can hit the open j, and nowadays it seems as though the good bigs can spread the floor. I also think BB is a better, more proven defender.

I would still take BB because I think his skillset is more in-line with today's NBA.

Davis is a decent defender, though the Celtics still suffer tremendously defensively when he's on the floor because he isn't Kevin Garnett, but everything else there is basically the same as saying "I'd take Yi over Dejuan Blair" because Yi has a fondness for the worst shot. I understand that being able to hit outside shots has effects on things like floor spacing but the long midrange jumper is still an awful shot to take. It isn't really to Blair's detriment that he doesn't take them.

[Nivek]

I would love to be a GM in competition with you.

While Davis does have a better jumper than Blair, Blair does everything else as well or better. He's a vastly superior rebounder -- +5.0 rebounds per 36 minutes last season. Blair was awful in the playoffs this season, and played just 12.5 minutes per game in the playoffs. Davis played 21.2 mpg yet the two had about the same per game points and rebounds.

Blair is the better player, and it's not close.

I might buy the argument that Blair is the better player, but to suggest that "it's not close" is crazy. I think you could make the case either way as far as who you would rather have on your team as a GM. Stats don't take into account things like decision-making, effort, conditioning, practice habits and other important attributes.

You want to talk conditioning with Glen Davis in the conversation?

And yeah, "not close" is a bit strong. I would take Blair over Davis every day of the week and twice on Sunday period. I can't think of a scenario where I'd want Davis over Blair. Both are tubby PFs who are shorter than league norms. Davis is the better mid-range jump shooter and is a little better defensively. He also rebounds like a SG and is inefficient offensively. Blair doesn't have a jumper, so he doesn't take many. He's an elite rebounder, he blocks shots, he scores efficiently even though he misses free throws. If you're looking for 15 foot jumpers you could make a case for Davis.

As long as we're talking about crazy statements, let's back up to where this started, which was with attempts to attack CCJ's talent recognition abilities by painting one of his correct predictions as disappointing. Really, it's crazy to say that Blair has been a disappointment. Especially considering where he was picked.

[montestewart]

^
I would have been happy if the Wizards picked that "disappointment" at 32 (or wherever that 2nd rd. pick was)

[DCZards]

I consider DeJuan disappointing, not based on where he was picked, but in the context of how he was raised to almost mythical proportions by some on this board when he was drafted. Blair's impact and current stats after two years in the league haven’t been all that special, imo.

[Nivek]

So, the Spurs getting a lottery-caliber player at 37 is disappointing.

Okay. Gotcha.

[DCZards]

So, the Spurs getting a lottery-caliber player at 37 is disappointing.

Okay. Gotcha.

Based on his stats/impact, I don't consider Blair lottery-caliber. That could change, but right now that's all I have to go on, which is what DeJuan's done, and not what he has the potential to do.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree about Blair. I'm cool with that.

[fishercob]

I consider DeJuan disappointing, not based on where he was picked, but in the context of how he was raised to almost mythical proportions by some on this board when he was drafted. Blair's impact and current stats after two years in the league haven’t been all that special, imo.

So it's mainly a function of you not liking what "some on this board" (CCJ) wrote about him? Weak sauce, DCZards.

[DCZards]

I consider DeJuan disappointing, not based on where he was picked, but in the context of how he was raised to almost mythical proportions by some on this board when he was drafted. Blair's impact and current stats after two years in the league haven’t been all that special, imo.

So it's mainly a function of you not liking what "some on this board" (CCJ) wrote about him? Weak sauce, DCZards.

That's the wrong conclusion, fish. But maybe I just didn't make myself clear. My bad.

[montestewart]

I consider DeJuan disappointing, not based on where he was picked, but in the context of how he was raised to almost mythical proportions by some on this board when he was drafted. Blair's impact and current stats after two years in the league haven’t been all that special, imo.

I agree somewhat about the charcterization of Blair, but to me, he offered so much of what the Wizards needed at the time (rebounding, size, interior toughness, depth) at not a great risk. I would have been somewhat disappointed had his knees already failed him, but it's only a 2nd, right? Had they picked him and gotten what he's given so far, I would not be disappointed.

[hands11]

Don't have time to do similar analysis for other draft positions. My guess is that Blair's playing time is probably most like that of a late lottery pick. It's just a guess though. At some point, I might get time to do something similar for other draft spots. Not right now, though.

I think a side note on those stats is that people tend to overvalue draft picks. That sure seemed like the case on here leading up to the draft.

Especially NBA draft picks. The NBA may be the toughest league to crack because there are so few jobs, and because players go both ways. The NFL, for example, has offensive players and defensive; and many guys are part-timers and situational players. Even the best players in the game will be on the field less than half the time.

In the NBA, stars play 2nd round picks are something like 50-50 to even make a roster. First round picks often struggle to find playing time. Star players frequently consume 80% (or more) of a team's minutes at their position.

This is why I would like to see a larger roster. Looking at a team like the Wizards who are looking to rebuild, it would be great to add 2 or 3 additional players like a Jeffers or Mo Evans and have them active but it's hard to do that. They would have to be inactive or your young players who you want to see what they can do have to be inactive. Since vets like Mo Evans would want to sign to a team that would have them active, you loose that depth to develop the team.

You don't want to give up on these younger players like Hamady or Seraphin so you want them active. They could develop into solid players if you can keep them around long enough to properly evaluate and develop them. But then they are taking up active roster spots for more vet type players who could actually contribute some and who would help them develop.

To me, it just seems the rosters are a bit to small for what I think would be in the best interest of developing talent and having better ball played throughout the league.

I don't even think this is on the table for this round of negotiations but if they keep the cap at 62M and added a few slots, that would help the who league by trimming down the individual contracts since you would have more players under the same cap number. That would put some additional pressure on team to since each player for a little less and contracts would be easier to move.

[closg00]

I consider DeJuan disappointing, not based on where he was picked, but in the context of how he was raised to almost mythical proportions by some on this board when he was drafted. Blair's impact and current stats after two years in the league haven’t been all that special, imo.

I agree somewhat about the charcterization of Blair, but to me, he offered so much of what the Wizards needed at the time (rebounding, size, interior toughness, depth) at not a great risk. I would have been somewhat disappointed had his knees already failed him, but it's only a 2nd, right? Had they picked him and gotten what he's given so far, I would not be disappointed.

+1....and we still could use a Blair-type player, Serphin has the size, but lacks the skills that Blair walked-in with on day-one.

[Jay81]

so Flip compared Vesley to Garnett and Mack to Joe Dumars. No wonder we got an A+

[Jay81]

If there is no season this year, how will the lottery be determined. It might actually be good for us if there is no season

[Nivek]

So, the Spurs getting a lottery-caliber player at 37 is disappointing.

Okay. Gotcha.

Based on his stats/impact, I don't consider Blair lottery-caliber. That could change, but right now that's all I have to go on, which is what DeJuan's done, and not what he has the potential to do.

I showed earlier, DeJuan's TOTAL production -- even in fewer minutes -- has been similar that of a solid lottery pick. Whenever I get a couple minutes, I've been putting together a look at the entire draft similar to what I did for the 5th pick. I'll let you know when I hit the spot that Blair's production matches best.

Weird result so far -- the 2nd pick (in the lottery era, meaning since 1985) has an almost identical production value as the 5th pick. Players picked 3rd have been more productive as a group than the 2nd picks. Wasn't expecting that. More coming later. I haven't even gotten the 4th pick done yet.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree about Blair. I'm cool with that.

I'm not!

TO THE PAIN!!

[verbal8]

If there is no season this year, how will the lottery be determined.
likely alphabetical or 2007-8 standings

It might actually be good for us if there is no season

Seriously, they probably do something like hockey. The NHL took the average standings over a number of recent standings. Once, seeded I could see the NBA putting everyone in the lottery, with a more even distribution.

[hands11]

I consider DeJuan disappointing, not based on where he was picked, but in the context of how he was raised to almost mythical proportions by some on this board when he was drafted. Blair's impact and current stats after two years in the league haven’t been all that special, imo.

Isn't Seraphin this kind of player? Well, isn't this the kind of player Seraphin can develop into ? This is why I say evaluating him this year is a key. He came into the year as a rookie who had a injured knee to a team that had lots of pieces coming and going. And he was an international project type.

Seraphin has it in him to be an athletic version of this kind of player. Now we just have to see if he is that. 6-9 275 21 years old. The kid is pretty damn nimble and he has that strong enforcer fight in him. So can Seraphin be our Blair? We will see next year. Can't wait to see some summer progress reports on Seraphin, McGee, Dray, etc.

We have to be patient with all these young players here before we give up on them.

[closg00]

so Flip compared Vesley to Garnett and Mack to Joe Dumars. No wonder we got an A+

Ted should start fining Flip every time he mentions KG.