RealGM Top 100 #4

[lorak]

After the Sam Jones game winner:

When the ball fell in, three seconds remained on the clock. The Warriors immediately called time-out, but once the clock actually stopped, only one second remained. On the sidelines, Frank McGuire was enraged. He was convinced the timekeeper, a Celtics employee, had let two crucial seconds run down, and he demanded that referee Richie Powers restore them to the clock. Powers refused.

It seems like Powers didn't like teams with dominant center...

What Rosen also neglected to mention was that when Reed went down in game 5, the Lakers collapsed on Chamberlain and Rosen's idol Jerry West took only 2 shots the 2nd half, missing both, while the Lakers committed 30 turnovers, trying to force the ball into Wilt, rather than taking the open shot.

That's very interesting, because some people keep criticizing Wilt for taking only 7 shots in 2nd half of G7 in 1969, but didn't say a word about this West's "achievement".

[Vinsanity420]

To follow up on Dr. MJ's price anarchy of basketball some - here was my question when I first joined realGM and Elgee's detailed response -

In the seasons he averaged 50 and 44 PPG, he had the highest true shooting % on his team as well. How can that possibly be hurting the team?

There is a paper out there by Brian Skinner called "The Price of Anarchy in Basketball" that explains how this is possibe: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0908.1801 based largely on Braess's Paradox. Here's an intersting blog post which might be easier to scan: http://gravityandlevity.wordpress.com/2 ... ng-theory/

The idea seems counterintuitive but upon digestions is fairly simple. Doctor MJ provides a real world example: Wilt Chamberlain in 1966 vs 1967.

Chamberlain can score at an efficiency much higher than his team's average. He does this by holding the ball, twisting and turning and essentially going one-on-one with the intention to score (Skinner may call this one "path" to scoring the ball). He does that, in 1966, at 54.7 TS%.

But every time he does this and passes, or every time he's not involved in a play, his teammates score at a certain rate. Let's call that 47.1% (the 1966 figure for his Philadelphia teammates).

So on the surface, one might ask, why doesn't Chamberlain shoot more? Perhaps he should shoot every time and his teams TS% would gravitate toward 54.7%? I hope it's intuitively obvious why that's not a good idea and why we've never seen something like that work at basketball levels above Lisa Leslie's high school games.

And similarly, it's possible for Chamberlain to actually shoot less and have his team's overall efficiency go up. If, instead, he looks to pass the ball more and aid his teammates in scoring (or even be used as a distraction off the ball), he can shoot a lot less -- even shooting at the same or lower (!) efficiency -- and his teammates can be more efficient, leading to an overall increase in team efficiency.

Look at what happened in 1967: Wilt, the team's leading shot-taker and leader in efficiency, shot the ball FOURTEEN fewer times per 36 minutes. His teammates scored at 50.7% efficiency. Wilt's TS% went up as well.

But, even if Chamberlain's TS% had remained the same, the overall team TS% would have gone from 49.0% to 51.4%! (As it were, the team's TS% increased to 52.8% because Chamberlain's TS% also increased.)

The 66 and 67 Phily team's had little team turnover and the same core group of players one through six. And despite Chamberlain's individual scoring attempts being reduced by more than half, even as the most efficient scorer, the different approach helped the team overall offense increase drastically.

I liked this part of Dr. MJ's post the best from the last thread -

I feel like coaching Wilt was a bit like trying to tell a novice how to bake a cake over the phone. All the ingredients where there, and if you had a smart coach with time to keep re-trying, you'll sometimes gets a world class dessert. This is very different though from players like Russell or Magic who just have an innate feel for what their team needs at a given time, and essentially give you the best cake possible with the available ingredients all the time.

And that's why I would take Magic or Bird over Wilt. Wilt may have been more talented individually, but it's ultimately a team game - and Magic/Bird are greater players in this format. Magic vs Bird is something I haven't decided upon just yet.

[Vinsanity420]

You shouldn't exaggerate the difference between D.Rob and KG. I have KG ahead (which would be heresy 3 years ago), but only due to longevity. D.Rob had the clearly superior peak.

You think D-Rob has a Top 10 peak of All Time?

[An Unbiased Fan]

For those who seem to have misinterpreted my first post, I didn't pick Kobe at #4, I was merely discussing the group of nominees we have right now, and how they compare to each other. I have mentioned around 10 different players in either voting or nominations, and this is the first thread I even brought up Kobe. The greatest Laker ever debate has been going on for some time now, so I felt it natural to reference Magic vs Kobe. Many respectable people like Jerry West pick Kobe, and many others pick Magic. The most dominant debate is also a usual topic of discussion, which is why I think Wilt vs Shaq is very compelling(great posts so far on this subject). I would also add Bird vs Duncan as a good debate which we see as a thread on the PC Board. My main intention is to spur some good discussion on these debates, because I myself, am still unclear where I will fall on any of them in the end. And frankly, there was bit too much vote counting, and not enough actual debate in the last thread.

[Vinsanity420]

And frankly, there was bit too much vote counting, and not enough actual debate in the last thread.

+1. These threads should be more about the discussion rather than where the player is ranked.

[fatal9]

It's a mistake to put Wilt this high. I had him in my top 5 too before I looked into his career year by year in detail. May make a post later about it.

[lorak]

It's a mistake to put Wilt this high. I had him in my top 5 too before I looked into his career year by year in detail. May make a post later about it.

Going year by year he's definitely top 5: http://www.dolem.com/poy/

Player POY Shares
1. Bill Russell 10.956
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 10.221
3. Michael Jordan 9.578
4. Wilt Chamberlain 7.818
5. Magic Johnson 7.114

[ElGee]

On the other hand, Magic clearly wins in longevity-of-utter-greatness.

How is it possible?

They played very similar amount of games and minutes. Also without doubt Bird's peak was better. Bird have much more (0.5 in this case is a big deal) career MVP shares than Magic, they are tied in all NBA teams. So I don't see any Magic's advantage in terms of longevity.

I don't agree with this. Bird is tremendously underrated on this site, because younger posters see unathletic and think he played against stiffs. The reality is, Bird is one of the GOAT offensive players, and underrated (heavily) as a team defender/rebounder. He was a carrying a massive offensive load on a balanced team and doing it well whenever/however was needed. As Kevin McHale likes to say, "Bird would just dominate a game and only take 12 shots."

All that said, I think Bird's peak might be slightly better than Magic's. But there is no way I would say "without a doubt."

It's a mistake to put Wilt this high. I had him in my top 5 too before I looked into his career year by year in detail. May make a post later about it.

Going year by year he's definitely top 5: http://www.dolem.com/poy/

Player POY Shares
1. Bill Russell 10.956
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 10.221
3. Michael Jordan 9.578
4. Wilt Chamberlain 7.818
5. Magic Johnson 7.114

A lot of that is a reflection of Borda Count style, because there just wasn't the same depth of competition in the 60s. When Hakeem or Barkley had a down year, they had the same POY value as Slava Medvendko. When Wilt had a down year, he picked up a massive share.

[Baller 24]

You shouldn't exaggerate the difference between D.Rob and KG. I have KG ahead (which would be heresy 3 years ago), but only due to longevity. D.Rob had the clearly superior peak.

You think D-Rob has a Top 10 peak of All Time?

You can consider his R/S peak to be up there yeah sure, but his playoff production really brings him down a notch IMO. It's like he drops off in another tier in terms of basketball play, but his R/S peak is amongst any of the great centers.

Might change my vote, depending on how the discussions go. Bird, Shaq, Wilt have similar peaks, but Magic's got the longer duration of top 4 play. Duncan's kind of similar to Magic in a way, where's got a consistent decade of top 4 play, while being dominant in two-way fashion. Till this day, I've never seen Bird get the nod over Magic, but it's definitely worth the discussion (which I'm considering)

[ronnymac2]

Re: Shaq's lack of rebounding and shot-blocking titles

Shaq was actually second in the league in rebounding in 1992 and 1993. He was third in 1995, despite having an excellent rebounder in Horace Grant on his team. He was second in 1997, though injury prevented him from qualifying. He was second in 2000, and third in 2001.

From 1992 through 1998, Dennis Rodman, the GOAT rebounder going by rebound rate, played the most minutes of his career. He literally rebounded at a rate never before seen in the regular season. David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon won their rebounding titles before Rodman became a full-time starter for an entire season. Those two, along with O'Neal and Mutombo, didn't win rebounding titles with Rodman playing those minutes. Shaq came in second to Rodman three times in overall average, and would have won two rebounding titles.

Tim Duncan has never led the league in rebounding. Or shot-blocking.

Shaq came in second in shot-blocking in his rookie season, third in 1997, second in 2000 and third again in 2001. He has many other top ten finishes in the category.

I'm not even sure why shot-blocking matters though. Shot-blocking numbers don't tell much of the story when it comes to defense. I don't hold the fact that neither Duncan nor O'Neal ever led the league in shot-blocking.

Nobody can prove that Wilt Chamberlain ever led the league in shot-blocking either. You can give an educated guess, you can reasonably assume but if you want to be fair...you cannot prove he ever did it. Wilt really may have never led the league in blocks during his time.

[An Unbiased Fan]

It's a mistake to put Wilt this high. I had him in my top 5 too before I looked into his career year by year in detail. May make a post later about it.

Wilt is really hard to place for me too. On the surface, he didn't have a Magic/Oscar like KAJ, or a Penny/Kobe/Wade like Shaq did. If he had a premier guard like West most of his career, I wonder how the 60's would have turned out.

But in many ways, Wilt is like Lebron, in that he excels when the team revolves around him. The game where it seemed like he quit until there was a comeback, seems eeriliy similiar to Lebron's last 2 playoffs. Wilt lack of a killer instinct really lowers him..

[ElGee]

Curious, did any of the people voting for Wilt actually read what was posted about him in the last thread? Or what Vinsanity and Doc MJ have posted?

[lorak]

Look at what happened in 1967: Wilt, the team's leading shot-taker and leader in efficiency, shot the ball FOURTEEN fewer times per 36 minutes.

14?

b-r shows (per 36) 19.2 FGA in 1966 and 11.2 in 1967 (only 1 FT less in 1967).

And we have to keep in mind, that during first half of Wilt's career he was asked to score as much as possible, because that was what sells tickets and owners of his teams didn't care as much about winning as about having great scorer who makes people want come to the games. Different times and we should remember that when we eventuate these older players. And Wilt prove that he also was great in other roles - as the GOAT in 1967 or as the "Russell" during his Lakers years.

[Dipper 13]

The game where it seemed like he quit until there was a comeback, seems eeriliy similiar to Lebron's last 2 playoffs. Wilt lack of a killer instinct really lowers him..

Is this G7 1969 when they cut a 17 point 4th quarter deficit to 7 before his exit, and he was barred from returning by a vindictive HC?



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7zvIJGkjZc#t=1m20s



Besides G5 of the Finals when Butch inexplicably left West in at the end of a decided game to badly injure a hamstring (could not effectively guard Sam Jones anymore, who went wild), there was the infamous G7.





'After Van Breda Kolff was gone, Chamberlain criticized his heavy drinking, his penchant for conducting farting contests, and his failure to prepare for games.'

Earl Strom: In a sense, I respect Butch for making one of the dumbest moves any coach has ever made.

After Wilt went to the bench, the Celtics did force some bad outside shots after Russell initially got a bit excited with Mel Counts guarding him. They could have fed Chamberlain as Bill Russell was clearly sagging off him, in hopes of fouling him out, therefore giving the Lakers a more decisive advantage on the glass with Russell out. The point is that Chamberlain was not given an opportunity to help his team win the championship at the end as noted by Sonny Hill below.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESDFppbQ2zM#t=3m34s


This is not to down Jerry West's performance, but you need to watch the full 4th quarter on Youtube. Count how many touches Chamberlain actually received in the pivot. As soon as Russell picked up foul number 5, Chamberlain goes down low next possession attempting to take him out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3k9eWPEbXE#t=3m20s

[lorak]

Player POY Shares
1. Bill Russell 10.956
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 10.221
3. Michael Jordan 9.578
4. Wilt Chamberlain 7.818
5. Magic Johnson 7.114

A lot of that is a reflection of Borda Count style, because there just wasn't the same depth of competition in the 60s. When Hakeem or Barkley had a down year, they had the same POY value as Slava Medvendko. When Wilt had a down year, he picked up a massive share.

So the same apply to other players from the 60s? And I'm not only talking about POY, but also this project, for example Russell's achievements should have less value because of lack of depth of competition. KAJ's achievements also, because during 70s (two leagues, expansions) there was even less talent.

[lorak]

[ Till this day, I've never seen Bird get the nod over Magic,

Before I joined realGM I never seen the opposite

For me the thing with Magic is that ~first half of his career is marked by unchlutch performances, issues with coach and some players (well, at least one) and general feeling that he wasn't as mature (in terms of begin great - winning - basketball player) as Bird who basically since his rookie year was better in that department. In other words Magic wasn't complete player before around '87 and that's why, after rethinking my vote in last thread, I will never again vote Magic before Bird. I have no doubt that Magic had GOAT impact on his teams, and you Elgee are probably right, their peaks are closer than my previous statement suggest, and he was fantastic after KAJ left, but that's not enough to overcame that Bird was ready since day 1.

[An Unbiased Fan]

The game where it seemed like he quit until there was a comeback, seems eeriliy similiar to Lebron's last 2 playoffs. Wilt lack of a killer instinct really lowers him..

Is this G7 1969 when they cut a 17 point 4th quarter deficit to 7 before his exit, and he was barred from returning by a vindictive HC?

Yep, that's the game. Great info, I didn't realize all that stuff went down at the time.

[RoyceDa59]

Vote: Wilt Chamberlain
Nominate: Jerry West

[JordansBulls]

The game where it seemed like he quit until there was a comeback, seems eeriliy similiar to Lebron's last 2 playoffs. Wilt lack of a killer instinct really lowers him..

Is this G7 1969 when they cut a 17 point 4th quarter deficit to 7 before his exit, and he was barred from returning by a vindictive HC?



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7zvIJGkjZc#t=1m20s



Besides G5 of the Finals when Butch inexplicably left West in at the end of a decided game to badly injure a hamstring (could not effectively guard Sam Jones anymore, who went wild), there was the infamous G7.





'After Van Breda Kolff was gone, Chamberlain criticized his heavy drinking, his penchant for conducting farting contests, and his failure to prepare for games.'

Earl Strom: In a sense, I respect Butch for making one of the dumbest moves any coach has ever made.

After Wilt went to the bench, the Celtics did force some bad outside shots after Russell initially got a bit excited with Mel Counts guarding him. They could have fed Chamberlain as Bill Russell was clearly sagging off him, in hopes of fouling him out, therefore giving the Lakers a more decisive advantage on the glass with Russell out. The point is that Chamberlain was not given an opportunity to help his team win the championship at the end as noted by Sonny Hill below.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESDFppbQ2zM#t=3m34s


This is not to down Jerry West's performance, but you need to watch the full 4th quarter on Youtube. Count how many touches Chamberlain actually received in the pivot. As soon as Russell picked up foul number 5, Chamberlain goes down low next possession attempting to take him out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3k9eWPEbXE#t=3m20s

This article mentions that even Bill Russell thought Wilt quit in that game.

The Lakers were heavily favored to win the 1969 NBA Finals against the old, battered Celtics, but then Chamberlain became the victim of one of the most controversial coaching decisions in NBA history.

In Game 7, Wilt hurt his leg with six minutes left to play, with the Lakers trailing by nine points. The Celtics won, 108-106. When Chamberlain had asked out of the game, the Lakers had been trailing by nine points, but then mounted a comeback to pull within one by the time he asked back in; this caused some to assume that Chamberlain had not really been injured, but instead had given up and "copped out" of the game when it looked as though the Lakers would lose. Because of this, some branded him a scapegoat and a quitter. Even Bill Russell ridiculed him, which almost caused Chamberlain to end their friendship..

http://www.barrystickets.com/lakers/lak ... erlain.php

[ronnymac2]

Shaq vs. Wilt

Wilt's advantage on Shaq is you can program Wilt to be any type of C you want (volume scorer, all-around C, efficient finisher with great rebounding/defending). No player in NBA history has that type of talent. Wilt is the most talented player ever, the greatest weapon a coach can ever possess.

The catch is, he doesn't effectively shift gears mid-season/mid-playoff series. So what you program him for is what you've got, regardless of any situation you get put into.

With Shaq, at least you know what you're getting. More importantly, in the playoffs, he knows what his team needs, when they need it.

An example: The best Shaq performance I ever witnessed was during the last two games of the 2002 Western Conference Finals. Dealing with numerous little injuries and his team down 3-2 to Sacramento, Shaq delivered menacing dunks, an alpha attitude and- yeah, check this out- excellent free throw shooting. He told the team to give it to him and let him set the tone for game six, and he did just that. Overall, he averaged 38 points, 15 rebounds and 3 blocks per game while hitting 75 percent of his free throws (24/32) in the two victories.
[url]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ1EINfd ... re=related [/url]

Go to around the 7 minute mark. He really did tell them to get the ball to him and let him set the tone.


Shaq vs. Magic

Many consider Shaq to have the stronger peak. I don't actually. Magic is the GOAT offensive player at his peak, and a good defensive piece. I think they are equal as peak players. However, Shaq clearly has the better longevity. He had 12 truly elite seasons, plus his rookie season and the 2006 season where he was a great player. Magic had 11, and that's including his rookie season (which I normally don't do for anybody considering I think most rookies are to green and not as developed yet...check my RPOY voting record).

Shaq vs. Bird

Once again, I think they are equal at their peak. These two are tied with Magic for peak play for mine, and tied with a few other players that have been voted in. Once again, longevity of prime comes into play. I'm giving Bird the benefit of the doubt and giving him 10 season of elite play (I'm giving him his rookie year and the 1990 season). Shaq was at his prime for longer.

Shaq vs. Hakeem

Equal at their peaks. Hakeem has amazing longevity. The only advantage Shaq has on Hakeem is on the resume. If anything, Shaq wins with a tiebreaker advantage, but these guys are really close.

Shaq vs. Duncan

Contemporaries...Shaq had a better prime. Duncan had 11 elite seasons (from 99 to 09). Again, I'm being generous with 2009, as I don't think he was really all that elite. 2008 and 2009, he was losing a step and heading towards 2006 Shaq territory. But give him the benefit of the doubt.

However, Duncan isn't a player who can say he was as good as Shaq when comparing the apex of their respective careers. He isn't where Shaq was at his peak.





Two more examples of Superman raising his game when the circumstances called for it:

In the 2005 ECF, Miami had a 3-2 edge on defending-champ Detroit. Then, Dwyane Wade got injured badly- enough that he couldn't play in game 6. What does Shaq do? He drops 24/13 with 4 assists and 5 blocks. He shoots over 60 percent against Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace, despite no Wade and not being 100 percent himself. Detroit wins.

Wade valiantly gives it a go in game 7, but he clearly isn't himself. Again, Shaq tries to pick up the slack with 27 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks, shooting over 60 percent again. Miami loses a heartbreaker.

In the 2006 ECF, Shaq had his last meaningful great game. Once again up 3-2 against 64-win, four all-star Detroit, Miami had a chance to get to the Finals. And once again, D-Wade was less than 100 percent, having the flu for game 6. Wade had torched Detroit all series long (like, record-breaking numbers), but wasn't feeling it in this game and chose to facilitate instead. What happens? Jason Williams goes crazy (was 10-10 at one point I believe). Shaq drops 28 points, 16 rebounds, and 5 blocks on the best defensive frontcourt in the league, while coming up with a huge mini-run in the third quarter that kept Detroit at bay. Ben, Sheed, and McDyess combined for 17 inefficient points and 20 rebounds.

Overall in that series, Shaq dropped 21.6/10.5 on over 60 percent shooting against Ben and Rasheed. He blocked over 2 shots per game, too. That's past prime Shaq. That's a year I'm not counting as elite.