Trade For Dwight, or Sign Nene?

[ecuhus1981]

I know that I may be boiling down our offseason prematurely, but IMO these are our likeliest options. So, which would you do?

Obviously, Howard is the bigger, stronger, healthier, younger and overall better player. But he is still under contract for another year; as dumb as Orlando's GM Otis Smith seems, he would not take the Cavs/Raptors wait-and-see approach, with only a TPE and some late, LATE 1st-round picks to show for their departing star. The Magic could trade him to a contender if they hit a rough patch in the season, and Dwight will sign a max extension with his new team without ever hitting the open market. Oh, speaking of which, yeah, Howard will get a max deal. Who knows what max will mean under the new CBA, but it will eat up a significant portion of our payroll, limiting our ability to add big-time free agents. The biggest thorn is the pricetag Orlando will charge for the reigning DPoY. Short of Deron, everyone else is fair game. Expect something like Howard/Q.Richardson for Morrow/Lopez/'13 1st/'15 1st. Ugh. Keep in mind, ALL of our FA targets will be off the table by the time Orlando is ready to move their stud. It's the ultimate all-or-nothing move, because if we don't land Dwight, we've wasted our time with nothing gained.

Now, Nene is no Superman. He's not a superstar, not even a star, really. But he is the best unrestricted free agent on the market this offseason, and he would be a BIG positive in our lineup. At 6'11 and 250lbs, the 28yo has the size, strength, speed and agility to defend PFs and Cs (which if you enjoy advanced stats, he does REALLY well). He's also one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA. He is not a great rebounder, which is perhaps the one way in which Nene doesn't quite complement Brook, also underwhelming on the glass, very well. Since Nene just opted out of the final year of a deal that would have paid him $13mil this upcoming season, he's probably looking for a huge payout. Would 5 years, $71mil for a guy who's never been an All-Star and has a concerning injury history be a big mistake?

One variable in all of this is Kris Humphries. I believe that if we were trade for Dwight, we could not afford to keep Hump too. He might be an expensive backup to Nene and Brook, but it would be a very impressive frontcourt trio. If he leaves, we might still be able to snare a guy like Andrei Kirilenko or Kenyon Martin to fill the role. Assembling a power duo of Deron Williams and Dwight Howard is awfully tempting, but if the Finals taught us anything, it's that the TEAM is more important than how many All-Stars you have. Giving up two starters (Lopez and Morrow), two 1sts and probably Humphries would leave us with a pretty threadbare team...

I think I've given a fair and balanced illustration of these two choices, which will surely shape our franchise as we move to Brooklyn, and beyond. Now you tell me how you feel.

[vincecarter4pres]

Expect something like Howard/Q.Richardson for Morrow/Lopez/'13 1st/'15 1st. Ugh.

Ugh?

This would be an absolute dream.

Assembling a power duo of Deron Williams and Dwight Howard is awfully tempting, but if the Finals taught us anything, it's that the TEAM is more important than how many All-Stars you have. Giving up two starters (Lopez and Morrow), two 1sts and probably Humphries would leave us with a pretty threadbare team...

This NBA Finals taught us the same thing as ever.

Superstars win titles and about once a decade or less on average a team with one superstar and no other stars beats out the favorites, the rest of that time is filled with dynasty style teams.

Oh, and Morrow isn't a lock starter by any stretch of the imagination.

[ecuhus1981]

Expect something like Howard/Q.Richardson for Morrow/Lopez/'13 1st/'15 1st. Ugh.

Ugh? This would be an absolute dream.

And what if they ask us to add a James/Hedo swap? Or worse, what if AFTER saving our capspace (to ensure we can offer ORL the most financial savings possible) by letting Hump go and not bidding on Chandler, Nene, West or others), the Magic decide to trade with someone else? We're left high and dry, with a team that's even worse than it was this year, and an UN-extended Deron Williams quietly voicing his desire to be traded. Even the most optimistic Nets fan has to admit that we have at best a 25% chance at Duhwight. That means a 1-in-4 shot at:

Williams, Brooks, Outlaw, Williams, Howard
Farmar, Uzoh, Richardson, James, Petro

and a 3-in-4 shot at:

Williams, Morrow, Outlaw, Williams, Lopez
Farmar, Brooks, Graham, James, Petro

I'm not sure either of those are better than spending our cap on, say, Nene (5 years, $63mil) and Mr. Kardashian (6 years, $41mil).

Williams, Morrow, Outlaw, Nene, Lopez
Farmar, Brooks, James, Humphries, Petro

[deviljets7]

Short of Deron, everyone else is fair game. Expect something like Howard/Q.Richardson for Morrow/Lopez/'13 1st/'15 1st. Ugh.

Assembling a power duo of Deron Williams and Dwight Howard is awfully tempting, but if the Finals taught us anything, it's that the TEAM is more important than how many All-Stars you have. Giving up two starters (Lopez and Morrow), two 1sts and probably Humphries would leave us with a pretty threadbare team...

I guess we got different things out of this finals. What we saw was a team with hideous play at PG/C, a near non-existent bench, horrible on-court chemistry and questionable coaching still come within 2 games of a title because they had a core so elite that it could overcome all of those deficiencies.

Yes Dallas had a much deeper and stronger TEAM, but they still had one of the league's top 5 players in Dirk. In addition, if there is a hard cap as expected, it will be significantly harder to replicate the "Dallas system" just look at their payroll, especially in comparison to Miami's. Take a look at the NBA title teams of the last 30 years, with very few exceptions they had one of the league's top 5 players and at least one other player in the top 15-20.

Also, you are IMO being way too short-sighted when it comes to the ability/flexibility to put together a surrounding cast with the remaining pieces. Yes, it would be difficult to do for that first season of 2011/12, but lets look at this long term. Here would be your salary commitments for 2012/13

Outlaw $7.00 mil
Farmar $4.00 mil
Petro $3.25 mil
Q-Rich $2.63 mil
James $1.33 mil
Brooks $1.19 mil
Plus NJs pick and possibly HOU's pick in 2012
The total for those 6 players is $19.40 million. Assuming you keep both picks, you're looking at about $22 million for 8 players.

Now making assumptions about the salary cap is a tricky thing, especially with the current lockout. But based on the current cap figures that puts you around $36 million under the cap. Based on what Deron/Dwight are currently making, they can both get $18 mil each and there goes the cap space. That said, what are the odds that they sacrifice a bit if it meant getting a 3rd guy? Now I'm not saying they would or should take a cut to the degree that the Miami Big 3 did, but if they did, you would have about $6-7 million in cap space to sign a third wheel type of guy (looking at the 2012 UFA list maybe a Ray Allen, Jamison or Jason Terry or some of these 2011 RFA wings don't get long-term deal they seek this summer). In addition, you'll have $7.25 million in expirings (Farmar/Petro) which if you combined with one or both of those 2012 picks, could also net you a very solid 3rd/4th wheel to the equation.

[ecuhus1981]

^

I think that my "ugh" has lost its context. I'm not saying that getting Dwight Howard and Deron Williams is a fate worse than death. But when we're talking about the direction of the franchise, I see putting all of our eggs in the Howard basket as less cost-effective than keeping all of our assets and adding a top-10 C.

Again, I'll pose the question: would you feel as gung-ho about the deal if ORL demanded that a Hedo-James swap be included? I've read a few different places that IF the Magic felt they had to move Dwight, they would want a team to absorb either Arenas or Turk. That's yet another $10mil gone, slurping up every ounce of our room under the cap. What if they ask for us to send Brooks to a 3rd team for further value to them? I think that after 6 months of Melodrama, we're familiar with this game. Only this time, we already have a superstar in the fold, except he's not signed. Signing Nene may have an opportunity cost, but I feel that it would show Williams that we are serious about contending. If we can do that, we should take the sure thing, rather than wait to see when Orlando is ready to trade, and roll the dice that we will outbid other teams for his services.

Look at the lineups I posted (you might as well superimpose Turkoglu over James' name, while you're at it). Tell me honestly, which would you prefer? You might get a ring-chaser or two for Option A (an Anthony Parker type, at best) to fill holes in the lineup, but that's basically what we'll see. Imagining that Deron and Dwight would each cut 1/4 out of their salary-earning potential is a reach at best. Sales tax, the same agent, a beyond-the-court relationship that stretches back to the '03 draft and other factors led to the Big Three assembling in Miami. I don't anticipate the rest of the top-tier NBA talent to follow suit.

I see Lopez as a 22/10/2/1/2 guy, and Nene could be an 18/8 defensive anchor. Those two together could be even more dangerous than Dwight alone. Kris' minutes would be scaled back considerably, but he could give us 7/6 off the bench. By trading Lopez, not being able to sign Nene (to give ORL capspace) and not retain Hump (because there won't be enough capspace left after the deal), you give up on all three for Howard. Add in Morrow, James and two 1sts for Hedo and Q-Rich, and I feel we may not be gettign the most bang for our buck.

[SpeedyG]

If we get Deron and Dwight, I'm not even looking for that third guy. You can't manufacture it, and quite frankly, there's not one out there available on the caliber of the third guy of the Heat.

That proposed trade, especially on a locked out season, would be perfect. Especially if we land a top 5 pick in 2012 (plus we have Houston's right?)

[N Ireland Nets]

Sure why don't we package everything we have to get rid of every player on the roster & have the full cap to spend.

Then we could make a move in the 2012 free agency for Deron, Dwight &....... CP3



Haha

[bobbyc]

Dwight and Deron is the perfect combo. Wade, Lebron, and Bosh don't compliment each other well.

Dwight the best defensive player in the league. Deron the best offensive player in the league. Dwight good at setting picks and in the pick and roll. Deron one of the best pick in roll players in the NBA. Dwight a good low post player. Deron a great shooter if left for a double team. The only part of Dwight's game that doesn't fit is his inability to shoot the ball.

With those two we could win a championship with Brooks or Morrow, James, and Antawn Jamison or three other cheap role players.

Thats why I hope we don't play this season, so we can just sign Dwight next year and not have to sign some players this year who are overpriced and hard to move. Also, we wouldn't have to give anything up for Dwight if we lost a year.

[ecuhus1981]

^

The problem is getting those other role players, with Hedo and TrOut clogging capspace. IF there is a hard cap, Deron, Dwight and those two are it, they're all we'll have room to keep, other than small-salary ringchasers. And while Williams and Howard would be a sick duo and much more complementary than the Miami Troika, I'd rather keep what we have and add a really good player or two, for free.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. While we were courting Wade, LeBron, Stoudemire and Bosh this time last year, 2nd-tier guys that were interested in us (like Gay and Boozer) were bested by teams not as concerned with hitting a "home run", but determined to knock a solid double. We were left with, honestly, a single and three flyouts, one that is worthy of SportsCenter's Not Top 10. If we wait for Orlando to decide they are ready to trade Howard, we'll be repeating those decisions: missing out on the 2nd tier guys that WANT to sign with us, and crossing our fingers that a superstar will fall into our laps. That's a fool's bet, my friends.

[SpeedyG]

^

The problem is getting those other role players, with Hedo and TrOut clogging capspace. IF there is a hard cap, Deron, Dwight and those two are it, they're all we'll have room to keep, other than small-salary ringchasers. And while Williams and Howard would be a sick duo and much more complementary than the Miami Troika, I'd rather keep what we have and add a really good player or two, for free.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. While we were courting Wade, LeBron, Stoudemire and Bosh this time last year, 2nd-tier guys that were interested in us (like Gay and Boozer) were bested by teams not as concerned with hitting a "home run", but determined to knock a solid double. We were left with, honestly, a single and three flyouts, one that is worthy of SportsCenter's Not Top 10. If we wait for Orlando to decide they are ready to trade Howard, we'll be repeating those decisions: missing out on the 2nd tier guys that WANT to sign with us, and crossing our fingers that a superstar will fall into our laps. That's a fool's bet, my friends.

Except we didn't even have a chance at Gay, and Boozer did not want to sign with us.

[ecuhus1981]

^

Where do you even come up with this stuff?

Boozer said numerous times last offseason that he wanted to sit down with the Nets as soon as FA began. And Gay was actually quoted as saying he thought he'd be a Net, that Memphis didn't indicate to him at all that they'd make such a bold offer so early. I picked those two specifically because they both mentioned the Nets, but there are other players (Lee and Stoudemire, for instance), who, if we had been more aggressive in pursuing, could have been with us. I honestly don't dwell on the past, though; I'm just darn determined to learn from it.

[NyCeEvO]

Boozer Not Interested in New Jersey
by Net Income on Jan 23, 2010 10:56 PM EST
Amar'e Stoudemire sees potential in the Nets, but for Carlos Boozer it's no thanks. Boozer, who played on a 17-65 team his first season in Cleveland, admitted it would be a major leap of faith to sign with a three-win team as a free agent this summer. "I think anybody that wants to win, it would be tough to walk into a situation like that," Boozer said. Boozer has a home in New Jersey.

Nets stunned by Carlos Boozer's decision to sign with Bulls
Published: Wednesday, July 07, 2010, 10:02 PM Updated: Thursday, July 08, 2010, 10:11 AM
By Dave D'Alessandro/Star-Ledger Columnist

The Nets targeted free agent power forward Carlos Boozer, but he signed with the Chicago Bulls instead.
It was early Wednesday afternoon that Rod Thorn called agent Rob Pelinka and offered his client, power forward Carlos Boozer, a contract worth $75 million to play for the Nets for the next five seasons.

Pelinka, who originally asked all bidders for $85 million — that’s just $7 million shy of a maximum-salaried deal — thanked Thorn and said he would get back to him at the end of the day, according to a Nets official familiar with the negotiation.

Two hours later, the Nets learned — with no warning and no recourse — that Boozer signed a five-year, $80 million deal with the Chicago Bulls.

“They never gave us a chance to match, which we probably would have done,” said the official, who requested anonymity because he is not authorized to speak for the team. “We didn’t even get a chance to meet.”

Throughout the morning, the Nets were trying to arrange a meeting between Boozer, who as at home in Miami, and coach Avery Johnson, who is with the summer league team in Orlando. They only spoke by phone.

So after seven days of free agency, the three best power forwards in the field — Amar’e Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, and Carlos Boozer – are accounted for, and the Nets are still trying to fill the largest hole in their lineup.

And for a team that was already sensing it was slipping out of the LeBron James derby, this was not a positive development.

The best power forward left was the Knicks’ David Lee, but it was unlikely the Nets would come close to the five-year, $76 million maximum that he would likely request as the top player remaining in the market. Agent Mark Bartelstein, meanwhile, believed he was close to working out a sign-and-trade deal for his client with Golden State, which would involve sending a package of players to the Knicks. This transaction reportedly was contingent on James not going to Manhattan.

“I’m going crazy — I have a bunch of things going on right now, and it’s changing by the hour,” Bartelstein said Wednesday night.

If the Nets cannot land Lee, they’ll have very few options left, and will probably seek a trade to fill their forward positions.

Moreover, they will have to deal with the inevitable blowback for letting the extremely productive Boozer — a 28-year-old veteran who averaged 19.5 points and 11.2 rebounds last season — get past them for a scant $5 million difference.

I remember this like it was yesterday. When free agency came, Boozer didn't even wait for us to extend an offer or even listen to us. He immediately signed with the Bulls and didn't let us do anything. If he wanted to sit down so badly, why didn't he? I think the report that came out mid-season about Boozer not wanting to go to NJ was right.

[BOONE SQUAD]

My understanding is that the Nets offered Boozer a deal and then within 30 minutes Boozer ended up signing with the Bulls for slightly more than the Nets offered.

Neither Booz nor his agent considered contacting the Nets and seeing if they would up their offer.

[bkzmanny93]

i feel that we should sign Nene and one of the wings out their Prince, Butler, Chandler, Smith, n. Young, t. young either one would be fine with me depending on the price. all of them can score n have potential o be good defenders or already are.


Lopez
Nene
any of the FA
Brooks or morrow
D Will

thats a pretty good team. if dwight becomes available via trade then we have all the assets we have now to trade for him plus the wing we sign and possibly nene in an extended deal.

[DarkXaero]

Is it not possible to sign Nene and use him as a trade asset for Dwight trade?

[NyCeEvO]

Is it not possible to sign Nene and use him as a trade asset for Dwight trade?

If Orlando doesn't trade him (and it seems more likely that they won't), then we wouldn't have the cap space to sign Dwight. We'd be taking a big risk by using cap in the hopes that the Magic are going to trade Howard.

[DarkXaero]

I just don't see why Orlando wouldn't eventually trade Dwight. Unless their FO is on a mission to remain the worst, they have to trade him.

[Geaux_Hawks]

Just sign Nene, trade Hump or bring him off the bench, trade Morrow & Outlaw to Atlanta for Zaza & Marvin and call it a hell of an off-season for everybody!

1-DWill/Farmar
2-Brooks/FA(Jamal Crawford maybe??)
3-Marvin/James
4-Nene/Hump
5-Lopez/Zaza

Honestly, you are diminishing your chances of keeping Deron by not competing now. Might as well build a cheaper and deeper team now and give Deron a reason to really want to stay besides moving to Brooklyn. With that said, I think you win 50 games in the East and are geared up to make runs at the Finals for as long as you have those guys are better ones. Deron, Farmar, Nene, Marvin, & Zaza all have good playoff experience. Hump will be great off the bench. Deron is my favorite PG in the league, so I support whatever NJ does.

[ecuhus1981]

I just don't see why Orlando wouldn't eventually trade Dwight. Unless their FO is on a mission to remain the worst, they have to trade him.

I explicitly stated that ORL will trade Dwight eventually, if he doesn't change course and re-sign with them. No one else has refuted this, either.

My point is, this fact alone does not put him in our hands. As I said earlier, AT BEST, we have a 25% shot at Dwight. CHI, LAL and NYK all have at least as good a chance via trade, IMO. The Lakers, despite Dwight's insistence that he won't follow in Shaq's footsteps, have the most value to send in return. CHI can send Noah, NYK can send STAT and absorb Arenas with Billups' expiring. Not to mention, all of these teams are already playoff teams, mitigating the leap-of-faith element for Howard (he'd be more likely to block a trade by refusing to sign an extension with us, IF those teams are offering similar value and have better records than us).

By the time Dwight trade talks heat up, around the All-Star break or later, we could very well be 10 games behind all of those teams.

[60cent]

You can erase the Knicks as a possible destination for Howard. Stoudamire's contract is not insured so i dont think the Magic would be willing to take a chance on that. And im not even speaking as a Knick hater. Just facts.