How do you fix this team?

[rockymac52]

I think one of the best ways to evaluate our team's talent and future are to analyze the best and worse case scenarios for each player, as well as a predicted outcome.

That is, for any one of our players, if they excel and meet all of their potential, what current NBA player would their game most resemble? What about if they bomb and are a huge disappointment (this is less relevant, because let's be real, if any player "bombs", they're probably not worth rostering, so who cares what other scrub their game resembles, right?)? And lastly, what do you realistically expect that player to play like 3-5 years down the road?

Example: John Wall
BEST: Derrick Rose
WORST: Devin Harris
EXPECTED: Deron Williams

Obviously this isn't an exact science, and many people will want to debate this. I'm sure there are people that think Deron Williams is currently better than Derrick Rose, which I think is completely reasonable. It's also okay for a player's expected performance to be the same as his best case or worst case, but try to keep it reasonable.

So let's see how the rest of our team stacks up. What do you guys think? I think this is a great way to see how our team's future looks, and how good we might be if everything goes our way, how bad we could be if we're unlucky, and how good/bad we might be if our prospects play like we realistically expect them to.

Let's see it.

John Wall
BEST:
WORST:
EXPECTED:

Shelvin Mack
BEST:
WORST:
EXPECTED:

Nick Young (fair to say we know what we've got with NY1 already)
BEST:
WORST:
EXPECTED:

Jordan Crawford
BEST:
WORST:
EXPECTED:

Jan Vesely
BEST:
WORST:
EXPECTED:

Chris Singleton
BEST:
WORST:
EXPECTED:

Andray Blatche
BEST:
WORST:
EXPECTED:

Trevor Booker
BEST:
WORST:
EXPECTED:

Kevin Seraphin
BEST:
WORST:
EXPECTED:

JaVale McGee
BEST:
WORST:
EXPECTED:

[dangermouse]

I was actually thinking about D-Rose the other day. Hes a different PG to Deron, who is more of a pure PG, a mix of scoring and playmaking, so comparing the two even though they play the same position is still venturing into apples and oranges territory. Maybe just granny smith and red delicious level. Then we have our Wall, and Rondo, who are clearly pass first, set others up PGs. I think its easier to build a team like Chicago with Rose. A guy who can be MVP as a scoring stud with mostly role-player level guys around him. Pass first guys like Wall, Rondo, even Kidd and Nash, need at least two other all-star or borderline level talents who can score and do other things like rebound and defend in order to be a successful team.

And its harder to find those other all-star guys than it is to amass roleplayers. I know Chi got Boozer, but its debateable how much of a difference maker hes been. Thats also only one all star level scoring guy, too.

[dangermouse]

John Wall
BEST: John Wall. No, really, I think hes good enough that in another season people will be comparing guards to him. But for this exercise: Rondo v2.0/Westbrook v.2.1 with a sprinkling of CP3/Wade.
WORST: Rajon Rondo (w/o Garnett, Pierce and Allen).
EXPECTED: Rondo/Westbrook hybrid (hes already there though, until his shot develops more).

Shelvin Mack
BEST: Earl Watson/Derrick Fisher?
WORST: Eddie House's grandma?
EXPECTED: Don't know/havent seen enough. Hopefully just a change of pace and a solid backup behind John.

Nick Young (fair to say we know what we've got with NY1 already)
BEST: cheaper J.R. Smith without the thuglife retardation.
WORST: J.R. Smith after 4 cones.
EXPECTED: last year's Nick comes back and improves marginally.

Jordan Crawford
BEST: Some have said Dumars?
WORST: any chucker with PG skills and no D
EXPECTED: Flip Murray/Jason Terry/Jamal Crawford sixth man scorer.

Jan Vesely
BEST: Shawn Kemp and Andrei Kirilenko's mum had a raunchy night in the Czechoslovakia Hilton.
WORST: Jared Jeffries/Joe Alexander with Kwame Brown's hands.
EXPECTED: Will have to wait and see him in action. This year I just hope hes given PF and SF minutes, and that he impresses me.

Chris Singleton
BEST: A tougher Nic Batum/Marion.
WORST: Mbah a Moute.
EXPECTED: Mbah a Moute with a slightly better shot.

Andray Blatche
BEST: KEVIN GARNETTT ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!! No not really. I'd say 7 Day Dray/Zach Randolph is his absolute limit.
WORST: Andray Blatche.
EXPECTED: Andray Blatche.

Trevor Booker
BEST: Leon Powe/McDyess/Jason Maxiell 2.0 with a post game.
WORST: Tyrus Thomas playing basketball using only his elbows.
EXPECTED: I honestly expect something close to the Best case.

Kevin Seraphin
BEST: Nene/Perkins hybrid
WORST: Shorter, more athletic Johan Petro. Unless he eats too much cheese and can't lose the pounds, and begins surrendering on D. Then he will just be a bust.
EXPECTED: A little like Perkins with slightly better O and more explosion. A real tough customer.

JaVale McGee
BEST: Larry Nance/Tyson Chandler with D12 level athletecism and shot blocking.
WORST: JaVale McGee.
EXPECTED: JaVale McGee, a little bigger and stronger, a little smarter. He'll slowly get it. Hopefully he won't fully get it until he inks a new deal for low monies.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

Jordan Crawford
BEST: Some have said Dumars?
WORST: any chucker with PG skills and no D
EXPECTED: Flip Murray/Jason Terry/Jamal Crawford sixth man scorer.

Joe Dumars actually prided himself on tough on his man D, grit and hustle. I don't see Crawford making it there, but I think it was Flip who dropped a Dumars reference when talking about Shelvin Mack.

Good list though, DM

[Dat2U]

John Wall
BEST: Dwyane Wade with PG skills (HOF'er)
WORST: Robert Pack on steroids
EXPECTED: Bigger Isiah Thomas (HOF'er)

Shelvin Mack
BEST: Toney Douglas
WORST: NBDL'er by third year
EXPECTED: Royal Ivey

Nick Young (fair to say we know what we've got with NY1 already)
BEST: A rich man's Jamal Crawford
WORST: Poor man's Jamal Crawford
EXPECTED: J.R. Smith

Jordan Crawford
BEST: Vinnie Johnson
WORST: Flip Murray
EXPECTED: Ramon Sessions

Jan Vesely
BEST: Jared Jeffries on steroids
WORST: Jared Jeffries
EXPECTED: Somewhere in b/w

Chris Singleton
BEST: Richard Jefferson
WORST: Stanley Robinson
EXPECTED: Stacey Augmon

Andray Blatche
BEST: Zach Randolph
WORST: A cross b/w John "Hot Plate" Williams & Tim Thomas
EXPECTED: poor man's Zach Randolph

Trevor Booker
BEST: Clarence Weatherspoon
WORST: Marcus Fizer
EXPECTED: Malik Rose

Kevin Seraphin
BEST: Jahidi White
WORST: Sofo Schortsanitis (aka Baby Shaq)
EXPECTED: Probably back in Europe in 3-4 yrs

JaVale McGee
BEST: Larry Nance
WORST: Keon Clark
EXPECTED: Offensive version of Tyson Chandler

[The Consiglieri]

I was actually thinking about D-Rose the other day. Hes a different PG to Deron, who is more of a pure PG, a mix of scoring and playmaking, so comparing the two even though they play the same position is still venturing into apples and oranges territory. Maybe just granny smith and red delicious level. Then we have our Wall, and Rondo, who are clearly pass first, set others up PGs. I think its easier to build a team like Chicago with Rose. A guy who can be MVP as a scoring stud with mostly role-player level guys around him. Pass first guys like Wall, Rondo, even Kidd and Nash, need at least two other all-star or borderline level talents who can score and do other things like rebound and defend in order to be a successful team.

And its harder to find those other all-star guys than it is to amass roleplayers. I know Chi got Boozer, but its debateable how much of a difference maker hes been. Thats also only one all star level scoring guy, too.

I don't disagree w/your analysis, but I would add one other caveat which I think negates the importance of the Rose factor. I don't think teams with scoring first PG's win squat. I can't even think of any at all, that have won in my lifetime of watching the game (started paying attention just in time for Boston-LA in '87 as a 12 year old, hoops never had the same grip on me that football, soccer and hockey did), but even looking back further, all you really notice are teams like LA (stars all over the place, lead by a pass first PG), Boston (several stars, PG was a role player with talent), Detroit (superstar PG lead them, but he was not a score first guy, he was a blend), Chicago (PG was always a minor bit part), Houston (those teams were Hakeem lead, they had Kenny Smith i think at the point (i ignored those two years, so memory is fuzzy, but he was a role player+), San Antonio, and LA have basically dominated the ensuing decade, and neither were really built around scoring PG's.

History's always been meant to evolve, grow, and change, but there are themes to it, and like with pro football (where I've always argued defense rarely ever won championships as the tired cliche is often asserted, instead, balanced attacks lead by franchise QB's who didnt make mistakes, and defenses good at forcing them, consistently won titles-I can only think of '85, '90, '00, and '02 as exception years to that rule off the top of my head), I feel that scoe first PG's never win titles. they just don't. So even if it might be easier to take advantage of a Rose to build a 60 win generation team, I'd still put my chips on a Wall, a Rondo, a DWil, or a CP3 to win it all, or some no name role player piggybacking a title off a team w/superior players in the front court and quality shooters surrounding them. I think Chicago can win titles with Rose, but not until they get one more superstar and better role players at a cheaper cost. I think starting with wall is an advantage, but as many have said, this team is just begining year 2, of a likely 4 year build. It has to do well in the next lottery And steal a free agent stud or discover that McGee, vesely, Young, Singleton, or Blatche have greatness in them to be a truly great team. Time will tell, and remember, if you're bitter at how far we have to go, where the hell would we be w/o that once in a lifetime luck in the lottery (hopefully twice after the next one). The players we most wanted, all out of reach, sitting there at 6 frowning at Gordon Hayward, or with Evan Turner at 2, or Favors or Cousins at 3 (both of whom I actually like a lot, though i know we would have never drafted cousins after barely surviving the '09-'10 season). No matter how far the climb looks now, w/o getting lucky finally, we'd still be looking at the mountain from the parking lot, while jeering fans of the celtics and heat drove by, throwing rotten tomatoes, and rotten steak, napolean dynamite style, at us.

[dangermouse]

Nice response and analysis, I hadnt thought about it that way. Iverson was another scoring point with roleplayers around him who made the finals what, 1 year in Philly?

I think this Chicago team has more longevity than Iverson's squad, they'll be able to keep going deep into the playoffs. Who knows, they might get lucky one time and break tradition.

I know we are a few years off competing just yet. When we do it will be good for the league, too. Wall VS Rose rivalry in the East has potential to really draw a crowd.

[JonathanJoseph]

John Wall
BEST: Dwyane Wade with PG skills (HOF'er)
WORST: Robert Pack on steroids
EXPECTED: Bigger Isiah Thomas (HOF'er)

Shelvin Mack
BEST: Toney Douglas
WORST: NBDL'er by third year
EXPECTED: Royal Ivey

Nick Young (fair to say we know what we've got with NY1 already)
BEST: A rich man's Jamal Crawford
WORST: Poor man's Jamal Crawford
EXPECTED: J.R. Smith

Jordan Crawford
BEST: Vinnie Johnson
WORST: Flip Murray
EXPECTED: Ramon Sessions

Jan Vesely
BEST: Jared Jeffries on steroids
WORST: Jared Jeffries
EXPECTED: Somewhere in b/w

Chris Singleton
BEST: Richard Jefferson
WORST: Stanley Robinson
EXPECTED: Stacey Augmon

Andray Blatche
BEST: Zach Randolph
WORST: A cross b/w John "Hot Plate" Williams & Tim Thomas
EXPECTED: poor man's Zach Randolph

Trevor Booker
BEST: Clarence Weatherspoon
WORST: Marcus Fizer
EXPECTED: Malik Rose

Kevin Seraphin
BEST: Jahidi White
WORST: Sofo Schortsanitis (aka Baby Shaq)
EXPECTED: Probably back in Europe in 3-4 yrs

JaVale McGee
BEST: Larry Nance
WORST: Keon Clark
EXPECTED: Offensive version of Tyson Chandler

Very interesting take. Some great comparisons in there.

[verbal8]

I don't disagree w/your analysis, but I would add one other caveat which I think negates the importance of the Rose factor. I don't think teams with scoring first PG's win squat. I can't even think of any at all, that have won in my lifetime of watching the game (started paying attention just in time for Boston-LA in '87 as a 12 year old, hoops never had the same grip on me that football, soccer and hockey did), but even looking back further, all you really notice are teams like LA (stars all over the place, lead by a pass first PG), Boston (several stars, PG was a role player with talent), Detroit (superstar PG lead them, but he was not a score first guy, he was a blend), Chicago (PG was always a minor bit part), Houston (those teams were Hakeem lead, they had Kenny Smith i think at the point (i ignored those two years, so memory is fuzzy, but he was a role player+), San Antonio, and LA have basically dominated the ensuing decade, and neither were really built around scoring PG's.

If your PG isn't Isiah Thomas or Magic Johnson, chances are the team you build around them won't win a championship.

In the last 30 years these are the teams that have won championships:

Multiple(with similar rosters):
Magic's/Kobe's Lakers
Bird's Celtics
Jordan's Bulls
Duncan/Robinson Spurs
Hakeem Rockets
"Bad Boy" Pistons

One -
Dr J/Moses Malone - Sixers
Billups Pistons
Wade/Shaq - Heat
Big 3 - Celtics
Dirk and Geezers - Mavs

[montestewart]

Out of 30 championships, I count 7 championships for teams clearly led by PGs, and another five championships for teams with a PG that arguably was top 2-3 player on the team and sometimes the most important player. Consider the numerous teams with PGs like Kidd, Payton, Stockton, Johnson, etc. as the #1 or #2 player and made it to the finals. Consider the talent of the current PGs. I'm not writing off the model of a Wall-led team as a serious championship contender.

[fishercob]

Rocky, great little discussion starter! Obviously in the scheme of things it's totally meaningless, but in the dog days of summer at the start of a painful lockout, this is great. Let me take my stab here.

John Wall
BEST: Wade/Isiah
WORST: Rondo with no HOF teammates
EXPECTED: Bigger Isiah Thomas (HOF'er)

Shelvin Mack
BEST: Eric Maynor/Matt Maloney/Tony Allen
WORST: NBDL'er by third year
EXPECTED: Lindsey Hunter-ish

Nick Young
BEST: Poor man's Reggie Miller, say 80% of his output/Ricky Pierce
WORST: Courtney Alexander
EXPECTED: Johnny Newman

Jordan Crawford
BEST: Prime Larry Hughes
WORST: Michael Dickerson
EXPECTED: Bobby Jackson

Jan Vesely
BEST: Andrei Kirlenko
WORST: Jared Jeffries
EXPECTED: Andres Nocioni/Darius Miles

Chris Singleton
BEST: Tayshaun Prince
WORST: Stanley Robinson
EXPECTED: No idea

Andray Blatche
BEST:Poor man's Lamarcus Aldridge/Pau Gasol
WORST: Michael Beasley/old Derrick Coleman
EXPECTED: Danny Manning, post injury

Trevor Booker
BEST: Paul Millsap/Dale Davis with a sprinkle of Gerald Wallace/Shawn Marion
WORST: Marcus Fizer
EXPECTED: Malik Rose/Reggie Evans/Hakim Warrick

Kevin Seraphin
BEST: Kendrick Perkins
WORST: Ben Wallace without the dominant defense and rebounding
EXPECTED: Jahidi/Jason Maxiell

JaVale McGee
BEST: Prime Tyson Chandler/Camby/Josh Smith
WORST: Keon Clark
EXPECTED: Offensive version of Tyson Chandler -- better O, worse D

[nate33]

Chris Singleton
BEST: Richard Jefferson
WORST: Stanley Robinson
EXPECTED: Stacey Augmon

Andray Blatche
BEST: Zach Randolph
WORST: A cross b/w John "Hot Plate" Williams & Tim Thomas
EXPECTED: poor man's Zach Randolph

Trevor Booker
BEST: Clarence Weatherspoon
WORST: Marcus Fizer
EXPECTED: Malik Rose

I agreed with most of your post so I only quoted the parts where I have mild disagreements.

My main beef is with Booker. The guys you posted, particularly Weatherspoon and Fizer, are offensive-minded tweeners who can't defend either forward position. I don't think those comparisons do justice to Bookers likely defensive impact. I think a BEST example would be somebody more like Paul Millsap, Taj Gibson or Haslem - a borderline starter/6-7th man who gives excellent defensive effort even though he's a bit undersized at the PF position. I like Malik Rose as an "EXPECTED" example, though Mbah Moute is another possibility. Frankly, I think there's very little chance Boozer will be a bust in the Marcus Fizer mold. His rookie numbers scream out that he's a qualified NBA role player. He was fifth in his draft class in PER and did so while playing better D than most rookies.

I don't love the Blatche examples either. I guess you were saying that he could have an impact like Zach Randolph (i.e. empty numbers) but he certainly doesn't have his game. I'd say his game is more like LaMarcus Aldridge (prior to Adridge's second half surge this year when he suddenly became a more physical player). Blatche is long, lanky and skilled like Aldridge. He's softer than Aldridge and lacks Aldridge's superior effort on the defensive end. I'd say Blatche's BEST is the pre-2011 Aldridge. His EXPECTED is Antoine Walker with slightly better shot selection. His WORST is the Blatche we saw most of this year.

My only disagreement about Singleton is that I don't think he has the body type of a Stacy Augmon. I figure Singleton is likely to be able to defend and rebound at an NBA level. If one assume he never really develops a handle or a shot much better than what he's got now, then a more appropriate example would be someone like Mbah Moute.

[Ruzious]

I'm somewhat jaded, but I find this exercise somewhat pointless. Role players with limited upsides have uses, but doing a thorough analysis of them doesn't matter much until the team acquires two outstanding pieces to go with Wall. When McGee and Young are easily your 2nd and 3rd best pieces, you gotta make moves to get higher level talent. When you get the outstanding pieces, then I'd care about what the role players around them do and how they fit.

[nate33]

I'm somewhat jaded, but I find this exercise somewhat pointless. Role players with limited upsides have uses, but doing a thorough analysis of them doesn't matter much until the team acquires two outstanding pieces to go with Wall. When McGee and Young are easily your 2nd and 3rd best pieces, you gotta make moves to get higher level talent. When you get the outstanding pieces, then I'd care about what the role players around them do and how they fit.

I agree that you start with stars and then worry about role players, but that doesn't mean this exercise is useless (well, pretty much everything on this board is useless to some degree. We're all just wasting time here). If nothing else, it helps to assess the value of our role players in trade scenarios.

[rockymac52]

I agree as well. We're not going anywhere without one or two allstar caliber players added to this team.

Part of the purpose of this exercise was to make it clear to anyone who doubted or didn't realize that those two great players that we'll need to compete almost definitely aren't on this team at the moment.

As interesting as the BEST and WORST comparisons are, I think the more important part of all this is the EXPECTED comparison. Obviously as fans we aren't necessarily the best judges or predictors of future talent, and we're probably biased (some more than others), but it's a nice tool to look at what we've got and how good we can realistically expect them to be. It's especially valuable for a team with so many young players, where we really have no idea how good they'll be in a few years when we should ideally be playoff contenders.

It's also valuable as far as determining the value of our players as trade assets. For example, most of us seem ready to ship Blatche off for next to nothing in return, but take a look at his EXPECTED comparison compared to everyone else on our roster, and it's pretty clear that he's either the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best player on our team. I guess that's nothing we didn't already know, but even his WORST comparison isn't all that bad of a player.

To me it looks like a lot of our current players that we might hope to one day be solid role players, really don't have much of a ceiling. The role players that we're expecting them to be (according to this) seem to be more like end of the bench, 8/9th man role players, for a championship caliber team, IMO.

So while the Wizards' number one need may be adding one or two allstar caliber players to take us to the next level, the fact is, our role players aren't necessarily that good. They're young enough that there's still hope, but the reality is some of them, maybe the majority of them even, might not turn out to be any good. It's not like our role players are any better or more promising than any other team's role players.

[rockymac52]

With that said, whether we place any value in evaluating our own players via this exercise or not, it definitely does fail to give us any alternative plans of action. And I'm not saying we're doing anything wrong. We'd obviously draft an allstar talent if we had the choice, but that hasn't been the case, outside of Wall. This whole exercise is more of just looking at what we have, and where they might end up in a few years.

[rockymac52]

Lastly, I think we need to be a little more realistic as a fan base, as far as our title contending prospects are concerned.

The general consensus is that Wall is a very special talent, and will most likely keep getting better, developing into an allstar talent at worst, and potentially a legit hall of famer. We're very fortunate to have a player of his talent, age, and potential on our team, and it's nice knowing that at the very least, we have 1 of our 5 starters locked up and taken care of for the foreseeable future (although I'm personally still terrified that he'll walk as a FA the first chance he gets).

Other than Wall, there are differences in opinion on how good the rest of our players are. But the general feeling is that there aren't really any players currently on our roster that are going to develop into allstar caliber talents. Some people still have faith in Blatche or McGee blossoming into a star, and I suppose it's a possibility, but that's something that we can't rely on. Even if both of them get considerably better and become good players that are quality pieces on a championship caliber team, which might very well happen to a certain extent, neither of them can be expected to development into an allstar talent like Wall can.

******************************

The other general consensus is that in 2-3 years or so, that we will be championship contenders. I think this is really premature.

Best case scenario come 2-3 years from now is that Wall has become a superstar (similar to Derrick Rose's quick progression), McGee has vastly improved and now is near allstar level (NBA centers aren't that good, so he'd have a decent chance even if he doesn't dominate the game like you'd expect an allstar to), and Blatche has also improved considerably. Maybe our other rookies/sophomores developed nicely, some as quality role players, and in a perfect world, at least one of them surprises us and becomes "good". Add in a top end lottery pick or two (and they turn out to be legit allstar caliber players almost from the get go), and you have the makings of a championship caliber team.

But what if Wall, McGee, and Blatche don't get THAT much better, or none of our other prospects end up "good", and only a couple of them turn out to be legit role players, or one or all of our lotto draft picks aren't good enough to be allstar caliber (at least not in the first year or two of their careers, but also possibly never)?

Then maybe we're good enough to make the playoffs, but title contenders? Please. We'd have a nice young solid core to work with, and maybe we'd be in a better position to add an allstar talent via free agency as the piece to push us over the top, but be realistic here, how often to alltar talents in their primes become free agents, and what are the chances that he's end up coming to DC. Even if we have a solid all-around team with some youth and maybe a little potential left, and enough money to offer a guy a max contract, chances are there will be a handful of other teams that are just as talented and have just as much cap space. We might be an attractive option, but overall the chances we'd end up landing him just aren't that high. I know it's a different ownership and era, but come on, we're the Washington Wizards. When was the last time a big free agent chose to come here, willingly?

I'll add that the chances of us adding an allstar caliber player via free agency or trade in the next 2 years are also probably very low. We can all dream about Dwight coming here as a free agent, but we're so raw still, I just don't see it. Yes, Wall is great and it's easy to say he'll be a hall of famer one day, why wouldn't a big man wan to play alongside him? But take a look around the league and you'll realize many teams have potential hall of famers on them, and might be just as attractive destination to a free agent. Maybe a guy like Chris Paul or Deron Williams gets traded by their teams when they realize he's gonna leave in free agency, and they want to get something in return, but 1. we already have our PG, so those guys wouldn't be an option, 2. there aren't that many stars that get traded by their teams, 3. if they do, there won't be that many non-PGs available, 4. would we even have enough talent to acquire such a talent without gutting our roster and future draft picks? (that might be worth it though, to be fair).

*************************

Bottom line, while we have one incredible bright spot on our team (Wall), and a bunch of other young guys with potential, we're terrible right now. Looking ahead it's easy to see how we could possibly end up contending for a title in 2-3 years, but realistically the stars are going to have to align for that to work out and happen that quickly.

We are so bad and young right now that I think we should be hoping to be in the playoffs in 2-3 years. Keep losing now, get some lotto picks, hope for the best, be good enough to make playoffs in 2-3 years, then keep hoping for the best, maybe get a free agent or something, and if we're incredibly fortunate we can have a championship contending team in 4-5 years. But that would take a lot of things to go right, and the chances realistically are slim.

[The Consiglieri]

Been thinking about it for a few days, looking at win totals, the likely lottery drop (1-2 slots usually), and trying to figure out how to insure we get a top 10 pick in next year's potentially loaded draft, so i collected the win total's for the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 slots across the past 5 drafts just to give us a vague idea of where our potential win total would slide us, assuming we landed a top 8 slot, pre-lottery.


1. 17, 12, 17, 15, 22 Average: 16 wins, median 17
2. 19, 15, 19, 20, 24 Average: 19 wins, median 19
3. 22, 25, 19, 22, 28 Average: 23 wins, median: 22
4. 23, 26, 23, 22, 30 Average: 24 wins, median 23
5. 24, 26, 24, 23, 31 Average: 25 wins, median 24
6. 24, 27, 24, 23, 32 Average: 26 wins, median 24
7. 30, 27, 29, 26, 32 Average: 29 wins, median 29
8. 32, 29, 32, 32, 33 Average: 31 wins, median 32

Basically, if we hit 33+ wins, we're in danger of dropping out of the elite zone in the next draft. The Sweet spot seems to be 22-24 wins, with a max of 27. Got a feeling we'll slot in around 7-9 pre lottery.

[no D in Hibachi]

As the Wiz have potential max contract space in the summer of 2012 I'd rather the Wiz make the playoffs, even as an 8 seed just, to present themselves well for a vet star. We're one year behind the Pacers with a better core. They squeeked into the playoffs and have max cap space to scoop up Nene, who fits their team perfectly. Nene would never consider Indy if they weren't a young playoff team on the rise. Similarly a star FA in 2012 would never consider signing as a FA with the Wiz if they're coming off a 24 win season.

In addition, what does it say of John Wall if he leads the Wiz to 23 and 24 win seasons in his first two years? Certainly doesn't say "franchise caliber star". I'd rather they win, utilize their massive cap space, and develop the strong core of young talented raw players on the roster than hope for lady luck to grace them in the lotto--because she definately wasn't around this year dispite an excellent tank job this season.

[7-Day Dray]

As the Wiz have potential max contract space in the summer of 2012 I'd rather the Wiz make the playoffs, even as an 8 seed just, to present themselves well for a vet star. We're one year behind the Pacers with a better core. They squeeked into the playoffs and have max cap space to scoop up Nene, who fits their team perfectly. Nene would never consider Indy if they weren't a young playoff team on the rise. Similarly a star FA in 2012 would never consider signing as a FA with the Wiz if they're coming off a 24 win season.

In addition, what does it say of John Wall if in his second season he leads the Wiz to 23 and 24 win seasons in his first two years? Certainly doesn't say "franchise caliber star". I'd rather they win, utilize their massive cap space, and develop the strong core of young talented raw players on the roster than hope for lady luck to grace them in the lotto--because she definately wasn't around this year dispite an excellent tank job this season.

+1