Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable

[Jay30]

Hmm.

First and foremost, what keeps getting said again and again and yet people never seem to get it: The issue with +/- is one of reliability. There's a lot of noise involved. This says nothing about the stats' validity, and reliability always improves with sample size. So when we take a multi-year sample, we're giving the stat good reliability to go with the validity.

In other words: We're going away from one year samples for a reason.

but all-defensive teams are only for the one season. if they're noisy why are using them to act like his all-d teams a joke? how do you know kobe's D in 2008 was actually deserving based on+/-, but say 2007 not? shouldn't u be using more defensive stats than just +/- then?

also, its funny how you always brought up kobe's poor single-season +/- in 2011 as a basis to drop him in MVP voting even when numerous posters brought up the noise of that stat. but i guess it doesn't matter to further a agenda...

Second, looking at RAPM, here's how Kobe's defensive numbers look going back to '02-03 (which is all we have):

Year Score
'11 -1.0
'10 +1.2
'09 +0.8
'08 +1.0
'07 -0.2
'06 -0.9
'05 -1.1
'04 -0.6
'03 +0.1

There isn't a single year in the bunch that would warrant All-Defensive selection if we used that metric. It's actually kind of remarkable.

and again, if you use +/-, 2008 and 2010 are deserving.

you're also missing his best defensive years--2000,2001, 2002

exactly what SG was playing kobe-type minutes and did better? what SG had a better combo of +/-, defensive PER, NET ,"eye -test", versatility etc at comparable minutes?

that's right. none!

and if +/- is so noisy, you probably shouldn't be using its as a single judge for yearly awards, especially for kobe who's defense clearly has peaks and valleys depending on the year in question.

[Jay30]

A new, 8 year APM was just posted by Jeremias Engelmann. ( http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/dsmok_edition )

Of the top 25 players, only 2 are negative on defense. Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant.

That's a pretty huge statement.

and kobe/nash also have the best offensive numbers...

Yup. Shall I make a follow up article?

Kobe Bryant: NOT the most overrated offensive player imaginable

kobe--significantly better on offense than dirk?

wade--close to a negative on defense(0.2)?

casell--better defender than bryant?

garnett--2x better at defense at howard?



follow-up article:

APM: NOT the best stat for any player comparison.

[34Dayz]

Garnett has been one of the best defensive anchors of this Era... why does that surprise you so much? I never watched Sam Cassell much but he could have been a great defender how do you know he isn't one because he's ugly?

[Doctor MJ]

but all-defensive teams are only for the one season. if they're noisy why are using them to act like his all-d teams a joke? how do you know kobe's D in 2008 was actually deserving based on+/-, but say 2007 not? shouldn't u be using more defensive stats than just +/- then?

also, its funny how you always brought up kobe's poor single-season +/- in 2011 as a basis to drop him in MVP voting even when numerous posters brought up the noise of that stat. but i guess it doesn't matter to further a agenda...

Kobe get All-Defensive team every year. Even if he deserved once or twice in recent years, the fact that he always gets it, says that the people voting overrate him dramatically based on reputation. The multi-year +/- is telling us that Kobe typically doesn't have that kind of an impact, and thus directly to that point.

Re: Bringing up +/- for 2011 for Kobe.

Okay, you know how I said that +/- lacks reliability with shorter sample size, right? That doesn't mean that you throw it out, it's that you don't use it to make judgments between players whose ratings are close to each other.

Kobe's APM this year wasn't just disappointing, it was absolutely terrible. Bad enough, that it became a factor for me.

But understand also: I didn't use it to say Kobe was a horrible player this year who didn't deserve to be an all-star. I only used it to explain why I didn't see him as a strong MVP candidate. So again, what you need to grasp is the fineness of the scale with which I'm working. You're seeing me say negatives about Kobe, and equating them all, but they really aren't all the same.

Now what does it say that I have various levels of negativity directed toward Kobe? I would say it means he's one of the two most prominent players in the game, and that he typically gets rated higher than I would rate him, thus my opinion relative to the norm with regards to him comes into conversation a lot.

Second, looking at RAPM, here's how Kobe's defensive numbers look going back to '02-03 (which is all we have):

Year Score
'11 -1.0
'10 +1.2
'09 +0.8
'08 +1.0
'07 -0.2
'06 -0.9
'05 -1.1
'04 -0.6
'03 +0.1

There isn't a single year in the bunch that would warrant All-Defensive selection if we used that metric. It's actually kind of remarkable.

and again, if you use +/-, 2008 and 2010 are deserving.

you're also missing his best defensive years--2000,2001, 2002

exactly what SG was playing kobe-type minutes and did better? what SG had a better combo of +/-, defensive PER, NET ,"eye -test", versatility etc at comparable minutes?

that's right. none!

and if +/- is so noisy, you probably shouldn't be using its as a single judge for yearly awards, especially for kobe who's defense clearly has peaks and valleys depending on the year in question.

Jay, you're talking without any understand for the scale of the numbers.

Having a defensive RAPM above +1 does not make you an All-Defensive guy. There are literally dozens of people with that rating or better.

Re: missing. As I said, this is as far back as the numbers go. Might Kobe's defensive numbers have been great in earlier years? Sure. However, if for the past 9 years Kobe's numbers have said he's not All-Defensive worthy, and in 8 of those years he's gotten All-Defensive 1st team, it's kind of silly to object to my pronouncement based on what happened before those 9 years.

The fact is that anyone who gets 8 undeserving All-Defensive 1st teams is stunningly overrated.

[Jay30]

and again, if you use +/-, 2008 and 2010 are deserving.

you're also missing his best defensive years--2000,2001, 2002

exactly what SG was playing kobe-type minutes and did better? what SG had a better combo of +/-, defensive PER, NET ,"eye -test", versatility etc at comparable minutes?

that's right. none!

smh.

[Jay30]

Kobe get All-Defensive team every year. Even if he deserved once or twice in recent years, the fact that he always gets it, says that the people voting overrate him dramatically based on reputation. The multi-year +/- is telling us that Kobe typically doesn't have that kind of an impact, and thus directly to that point.

no it doesn't. multi-year has nothing to do with yearly all-d teams. and lol @ getting 5-6 stright all-d teams based on rep. you're really reaching.

That doesn't mean that you throw it out, it's that you don't use it to make judgments between players whose ratings are close to each other.

like most guards with kobe's minutes?

But understand also: I didn't use it to say Kobe was a horrible player this year who didn't deserve to be an all-star. I only used it to explain why I didn't see him as a strong MVP candidate. So again, what you need to grasp is the fineness of the scale with which I'm working. You're seeing me say negatives about Kobe, and equating them all, but they really aren't all the same.

you just said +/- is noisy, so why are u making such a big-deal of 1 year apm even it is bad?

Now what does it say that I have various levels of negativity directed toward Kobe?

yeah, seems your being hypocritical.

Jay, you're talking without any understand for the scale of the numbers.

i understand them perfectly.

Having a defensive RAPM above +1 does not make you an All-Defensive guy. There are literally dozens of people with that rating or better.

at SG? with comparable minutes?

Re: missing. As I said, this is as far back as the numbers go. Might Kobe's defensive numbers have been great in earlier years? Sure. However, if for the past 9 years Kobe's numbers have said he's not All-Defensive worthy, and in 8 of those years he's gotten All-Defensive 1st team, it's kind of silly to object to my pronouncement based on what happened before those 9 years.

except not all year of those have "said that", not all those years are equal, and all-defensive teams are only based on the single season not a long stretch of years.

The fact is that anyone who gets 8 undeserving All-Defensive 1st teams is stunningly overrated.

except his 2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2008,2010 teams were all deserved.

try again.

[34Dayz]

Why when the numbers make Kobe look bad are they stupid or skewed.. is it within the range of possibility's that Kobe was just not a great defender every year of this decade or is that ridiculous? This question is directed to all the Kobe fans in this thread.

[Doctor MJ]

Jay, you're talking without any understand for the scale of the numbers.

i understand them perfectly.

You really, really don't though. In your last post I see all sorts of misconceptions that I have already addressed on this very page. You're not listening, and so I'm not going to spend more of my time trying to talk you through this.

[Jay30]

You really, really don't though.

yeah i do. your agenda has been destroyed. nice try.

kobe--7 time legit all-defensive player. one of the best perimeter defenders ever and not even remotely close to being overrated. u mad hater?

[mysticbb]

yeah i do. your agenda has been destroyed. nice try.

kobe--7 time legit all-defensive player. one of the best perimeter defenders ever and not even remotely close to being overrated. u mad hater?

You haven't presented any data which would support your statements here. What is the purpose of your posts in a subforum called "Statistical Analysis", if you don't provide any statistical evidence that the method used by Doc MJ is in fact not correct?

The data presented in this thread supports the notion that Bryant got his All-Defense team awards mainly by reputation. It is a very well known argument since 2003, that "Bryant could, if he would", but haven't done any consistent effort defensively. Watch the games, not just some highlights, and you will for sure come up with the same conclusion.

Nobody claims that Bryant couldn't play like a great defender in all those years (except for 2005 and 2011, because due to several injury problems, he just couldn't in those respective years), but he just didn't do it on a consistent basis. In each year we can at least find 4 guard defenders playing more consistent and better defense than Bryant. If you don't agree with this, please present data which supports your argumentation.

[Jay30]

and if you watch the games, especially the 2008 and 2010 season, you'll come to a different conclusion.

he certainly passes the eye-test. he has excellent lateral quickness, great strength, can defend three positions with no problem, phenomenal ball-hawk (consistently around 2 steals per game), very good defensive re-bounder, and solid at rotations/doubles/pressure. his biggest problem by far is a tendency to over-help and leave guys open at the three, but then again the lakers have always been very good at defending the three, so its not that big a problem.

did you even watch laker games?

i've already said there were some years where he perhaps wasn't deserving. but he certainly was in 04, 08, and 2010. along with 00,01, 02, 03. so thats 7 legitimate all-defensive teams.

again, which SG's were more deserving in these disputed years (08,04,2010?) based on a combo of minutes, APM, defensive PER,DRTG, etc and eye-test?

that's right. none! APM isn't gospel. sorry

[Baller 24]

A new, 8 year APM was just posted by Jeremias Engelmann. ( http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/dsmok_edition )

Of the top 25 players, only 2 are negative on defense. Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant.

That's a pretty huge statement.

Appraently, Billups is also a negative on D...lol

And Sam Cassell is better on D than Wade, Paul, Rondo, and Kidd. Who would have guessed...

Oh, and my favorite.....Derek Fisher, one of the worst defensive guards over the last 8 years....is +1.3. So Fisher is apparently better than Wade, Paul, Kobe, Rondo, Raja, and Kidd. Wowsers!

Thank you APM for enlightening us all.

Is Fisher really a bad defender? I looked through the three-peat run, the '08 finals run and in terms of simple box scores he did a wonderful job defensive on numerous occasions against good offensive players.

And I still don't understand, it makes every defender this era look great, but just not Bryant, and every counter-argument I've heard is those that completely dismantle the statistic, regardless of how it makes other great defenders this era look...well... great.

[Jay30]

pierce-better defender than bryant/wade?

fisher-better defender than cp3, billups

bogut-a negative on offense?

gasol- a negative on defense (you really have to wonder have the 08-10 lakers were so excellent defensively with, apparently, two negative on defense playing 40 minutes a night )

oden--negative defense

so many ridiculous things on that list. too many to list really.

[Baller 24]

Yet it still makes all the great defenders look great.

[Jay30]

and mediocre/average defenders look much better than they are too...

[Jay30]

not deserving?

[Doctor MJ]

Um, Jay, what exactly do you think those numbers mean?

To me they sure look like they're saying that Kobe has an average defensive PPP relative to the players mentioned, which includes being worse than Wade - who gets nowhere near the All-Defensive love that Kobe gets. How does this help your cause?

[Jay30]

um, seriously?most of the guys on that list aren't sg's. and the guys who are sg's don't play kobe-type minutes. wade doesn't have better numbers in the biggest area's/most possessions for sg's (isolation, p/r,spot-up,) and overall they're pretty much equal. how could anyone looking at those great numbers say kobe isn't deserving for 1st team all-defense? i mean, what more do you want.

in 2010:
he has good +/- numbers
lakers are 4th in DRTG
excellent synergy stats
lakers are #1 in defending the three
excellent defensive PER
lakers among the best in league in terms of holding sg's down
one of the best ball-hawks at position (1.5 spg)

so why is it crazy to say he was deserving.

haters gonna hate.

[Doctor MJ]

um, seriously?most of the guys on that list aren't sg's. and the guys who are sg's don't play kobe-type minutes.

Which begs the question: Why are you using this list to begin with.

That chart was made by someone other than you to indicate that Brandon Rush was a solid defender, not to make the claim that Kobe is one of the 2 best defensive guards in the league.

wade doesn't have better numbers in the biggest area's/most possessions for sg's (isolation, p/r,spot-up,) and overall they're pretty much equal. how could anyone looking at those great numbers say kobe isn't deserving for 1st team all-defense? i mean, what more do you want.

Your argument is that he's pretty much as good as Wade on defense, and so he's not an overrated defender. Problem with that is that they don't have anywhere near the same kind of All-Defensive accolades. Kobe's got 9 1st teams, Wade has 0. If Kobe had 0, I wouldn't have written the article.

[Jay30]

Which begs the question: Why are you using this list to begin with.

That chart was made by someone other than you to indicate that Brandon Rush was a solid defender, not to make the claim that Kobe is one of the 2 best defensive guards in the league.

that doesn't change the fact that kobe's numbers are excellent and stack up well with other elite defensive sg's. not sure what your point is. it doesn't matter what the intentions are. the info is there.

Your argument is that he's pretty much as good as Wade on defense, and so he's not an overrated defender. Problem with that is that they don't have anywhere near the same kind of All-Defensive accolades. Kobe's got 9 1st teams, Wade has 0. If Kobe had 0, I wouldn't have written the article.

kobe is better than wade in the most crucial areas and that chart is ONLY FOR 09-10. the other yrs are irrelevant. but it's clear by all objective evidence that kobe was deserving off 1st team in 2010, and considering that was a season where he was past his prime and playing on a busted knee, it's safe to say he was even better in the previous seasons that you so heavily dispute. so that's one season where he was clearly deserving.

not clue what you're talking about honestly. career accolades mean nothing when im talking single-season.

seriously, i could go through every season that kobe made all-defense and prove that he was worthy.
using a combo of stats and eye-test.

what you need to realize is that the sg postion is really weak and that even guys who mightgive more consistent effort still don't have the same value due to minutes. like manu.