Should Jays target Prince Fielder?

[J.Kim]

I think the Jays should go after Reyes.

An infield of Lind, Reyes, Escobar and Lawrie would be something to watch offensively.

The Jays won't have to rush Hech and when he does get to the majors, he'll be able to watch and learn from Reyes and Escobar. If Hech's bat comes around, he'll replace Reyes or Escobar and if it doesn't he'll be John Macdonald's replacement.

An outfield of Bautista and Snider (and hopefully, Gose) is also quite strong offensively.

Overall, I think Reyes would contribute much more to the Jays winning (at less of a price as well) mostly due to the fact that that Reyes would be a huge upgrade over Hill. As opposed to Fielder over Lind. Paying $25 million for a DH is just plain crazy and bad baseball.

Completely agree. Reyes is the best player is baseball right now (aside from his hamstring) and he does everything except power. The best part of Jose Reyes is he's a leadoff man which is something we really haven't had in a hell of long time.

Really...? On a Jays board?

[torontoaces04]

I think the Jays should go after Reyes.

An infield of Lind, Reyes, Escobar and Lawrie would be something to watch offensively.

The Jays won't have to rush Hech and when he does get to the majors, he'll be able to watch and learn from Reyes and Escobar. If Hech's bat comes around, he'll replace Reyes or Escobar and if it doesn't he'll be John Macdonald's replacement.

An outfield of Bautista and Snider (and hopefully, Gose) is also quite strong offensively.

Overall, I think Reyes would contribute much more to the Jays winning (at less of a price as well) mostly due to the fact that that Reyes would be a huge upgrade over Hill. As opposed to Fielder over Lind. Paying $25 million for a DH is just plain crazy and bad baseball.

Completely agree. Reyes is the best player is baseball right now (aside from his hamstring) and he does everything except power. The best part of Jose Reyes is he's a leadoff man which is something we really haven't had in a hell of long time.

Really...? On a Jays board?

Seriously man, what more does Bautista have to do...especially after last nights game!

[Lateral Quicks]

I like AA's goal of having excellent two-way players at every position. As a DH and/or mediocre first base man, Fielder doesn't fit that goal. And when you consider the price, his girth/potential health issues, and the fact we have Adam Lind and 1B/DH is a relatively easy position to fill adequately, it just isn't worth it.

I'd much rather the money be spent on 2B or CF. Or better yet, get another Lawrie type prospect at 2B - someone who we could expect to contribute next year. We have more than enough prospects to make that happen.

Huge free agent signings seem to often backfire. Look at Crawford and Werth as examples just from this year, and the Blue Jays history over the last decade (Wells, Rios, Ryan, etc.) for more. I'd much rather get the high end prospect that is in/close to the majors using our prospect depth.

[Skin Blues]

I think the Jays should go after Reyes.

An infield of Lind, Reyes, Escobar and Lawrie would be something to watch offensively.

The Jays won't have to rush Hech and when he does get to the majors, he'll be able to watch and learn from Reyes and Escobar. If Hech's bat comes around, he'll replace Reyes or Escobar and if it doesn't he'll be John Macdonald's replacement.

An outfield of Bautista and Snider (and hopefully, Gose) is also quite strong offensively.

Overall, I think Reyes would contribute much more to the Jays winning (at less of a price as well) mostly due to the fact that that Reyes would be a huge upgrade over Hill. As opposed to Fielder over Lind. Paying $25 million for a DH is just plain crazy and bad baseball.

Completely agree. Reyes is the best player is baseball right now (aside from his hamstring) and he does everything except power. The best part of Jose Reyes is he's a leadoff man which is something we really haven't had in a hell of long time.

Really...? On a Jays board?

If Bautista was batting leadoff, he'd be the best leadoff hitter in baseball. You don't need a speedster at the top (clearly the Rajai Davis experiment ain't workin that well, and Patterson will soon be out of baseball), you need a guy to get on base, especially with Bautista and Lind batting behind them.

[Parataxis]

No Fielder or José Reyes please. For different reasons.

Too expensive, and you're worried about confusing him with our starting pitcher?

[Michael Bradley]

I like AA's goal of having excellent two-way players at every position. As a DH and/or mediocre first base man, Fielder doesn't fit that goal. And when you consider the price, his girth/potential health issues, and the fact we have Adam Lind and 1B/DH is a relatively easy position to fill adequately, it just isn't worth it.

I'd much rather the money be spent on 2B or CF. Or better yet, get another Lawrie type prospect at 2B - someone who we could expect to contribute next year. We have more than enough prospects to make that happen.

Huge free agent signings seem to often backfire. Look at Crawford and Werth as examples just from this year, and the Blue Jays history over the last decade (Wells, Rios, Ryan, etc.) for more. I'd much rather get the high end prospect that is in/close to the majors using our prospect depth.

The problem with going the prospect route is that every team values top end prospects, so outside of trading stars or near stars (Halladay/Marcum), the Jays are likely not going to be able to acquire those types of prospects in any avenue other than the draft. To get Brett Lawrie, it took a 3.5 WAR starter in Marcum. To get Drabek, D'Arnaud, and Gose, it took the best pitcher of this generation, and neither of those three are locks to be stars.

At this point, if the Jays want to win in 2012, they have two options. 1) Sign expensive free agent talent (Pujols, Fielder...hell, even Darvish), or 2) find a team looking to move a star and trade prospects for that star (ala Adrian Gonzalez last winter). Only player that may fit the latter category is Hanley Ramirez (Florida is cheap and Hanley is having a poor season + attitude problems). Other than that, I can't see where the Jays are going to get another impact talent if they don't overpay for a Prince Fielder type. As good a prospect as Lawrie is, will he breakout in time (or at all)? Ditto Snider. Thames and JPA are not star level prospects. Who knows what we have with Lind.

In fact, I'm in the camp that doesn't even believe the pitching is a sure thing. Outside of Romero and Morrow, there isn't a single pitcher on the team that I am comfortable with in the rotation right now. Depth doesn't always equal quality, and it will take Drabek, Cecil, etc, taking huge steps forward to become an elite rotation.

I agree with the general premise that the Jays shouldn't be going the FA route and spending $20M a year on guys who may not be worth it in the end, but if they want to win with Bautista playing at an elite level, I see no other way for them to add the type of talent they need.

[Schad]

I don't think that our pitching is a sure thing either, but we have more than ten guys who could be competing for rotation spots by next year. Romero and Morrow are the staples, with Drabek, Cecil, Stewart, Carreno, Jenkins, Alvarez, Hutchison, Molina and McGuire fighting for the remaining three.

Don't know whether one can cobble together an elite rotation out of that, but my feeling is that our resources have to go into the bats first, and if the pitching stalls next year, then we move on to Plan B.

[Sifu]

As I watched the game today, Sportsnet showed an amazing stat - the Jays have blown 15 saves this year. That's an incredible number!

The AL leaders in save % is Detroit followed by Cleveland with around 80%. Put that into perspective, if the Jays had that sort of save % conversion, they would have blown only 6 saves so far.

Admittedly, that won't translate to 9 more wins, but lets say that converts to 7 more wins - you're no longer talking about a 45-47 team, more like 52 - 40 and 3 games out of wildcard contention.

Take into account that E5 is no longer on the field (or shouldn't be) and Rivera is gone, that's another few games tacked on, and the Jays are in the thick of things.

Maybe the Jays are better off really bolstering the bullpen with some really good arms. For god's sake, go sign a closer.

[Randle McMurphy]

I'm not sure you can expect Darvish to be an elite pitcher in this league, but if he can put up reasonably good production (3-4 WAR), he'll easily be worth the money considering everything else he'd bring to the organization.

Reports from Japan make it seem like he's certainly got the stuff and the make-up to be an elite pitcher in the league. He's got plus command, plus control, and an array of pitches that no one in the MLB can match that he can throw from average to plus, plus. A fastball that sits at 92-95, two-seam, curveball, slider, forkball, change-up and a shuuto. Plus, he recently went on a 46-inning scoreless streak and is currently 9-2 with a 1.37 ERA, 107/10 K/BB (!!!!!) over 92 innings.

It might be a bit of hype thrown out there by scouts and maybe I'm being too optimistic that the transition would go smoothly, but considering the control and command he's shown in the NPB, I'd like to think that he could be a 4-5 WAR guy in the MLB at the very least. (and I do fully realize how naive and foolish that makes me sound, but I really believe that he'll have a successful transition over to the MLB)

Only one Japanese starting pitcher has ever been elite for a period, though, and that was Hideo Nomo (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.p ... _pitchers/).

If Darvish is, he'll be bucking the trend. That doesn't mean he won't be worth the money some team will give him when everything is taken into account, but the Jays have to keep in mind that they likely aren't paying for an elite major league pitcher.

[J.Kim]

I'm not sure you can expect Darvish to be an elite pitcher in this league, but if he can put up reasonably good production (3-4 WAR), he'll easily be worth the money considering everything else he'd bring to the organization.

Reports from Japan make it seem like he's certainly got the stuff and the make-up to be an elite pitcher in the league. He's got plus command, plus control, and an array of pitches that no one in the MLB can match that he can throw from average to plus, plus. A fastball that sits at 92-95, two-seam, curveball, slider, forkball, change-up and a shuuto. Plus, he recently went on a 46-inning scoreless streak and is currently 9-2 with a 1.37 ERA, 107/10 K/BB (!!!!!) over 92 innings.

It might be a bit of hype thrown out there by scouts and maybe I'm being too optimistic that the transition would go smoothly, but considering the control and command he's shown in the NPB, I'd like to think that he could be a 4-5 WAR guy in the MLB at the very least. (and I do fully realize how naive and foolish that makes me sound, but I really believe that he'll have a successful transition over to the MLB)

Only one Japanese starting pitcher has ever been elite for a period, though, and that was Hideo Nomo (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.p ... _pitchers/).

If Darvish is, he'll be bucking the trend. That doesn't mean he won't be worth the money some team will give him when everything is taken into account, but the Jays have to keep in mind that they likely aren't paying for an elite major league pitcher.

I guess that's true to an extent. Even the top pitchers in the league at the time like Daisuke turned out to be nothing more than #2-3s here.

But the difference in Yu Darvish is that what he's doing in the NPB is unprecedented. He's by far the best pitcher in the NPB and widely considered the best since Masaichi Kaneda who played in a pitcher's era in the 50s (and there's quite a large subset of people who consider him to be the greatest pitcher of all time in the NPB already). He's on route to become the first pitcher in the NPB ever to post a sub-2 ERA in five consecutive seasons and has a career ERA that is just above 2. Daisuke and Hideo Nomo weren't even close to that mark. (Bear with me for using ERA as a barometer, NPB doesn't keep track of advanced statistics)

Considering his pedigree, if I were a betting man, I'd wager a large sum of money that he'd be at least a 4-5 WAR guy here in the MLB (barring injury, of course)

[CanadaB-Ball]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=4335599&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dlaw_keith%26id%3d4335599

Does anybody have 'insider'?

It's an article ranking Darvish, Stasburg and Chapman. I'm interested to see Keith Law's take on the debate.

[J.Kim]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=4335599&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dlaw_keith%26id%3d4335599

Does anybody have 'insider'?

It's an article ranking Darvish, Stasburg and Chapman. I'm interested to see Keith Law's take on the debate.

Just do a quick google search with the article title. That's all I can tell you, since I'm a mod and I can't be describing, in detail, ways of circumventing.

All in all, he says (the article is from 2009 so take it with that time frame in mind) Darvish would be the best bet to provide most value this year (2009). For the long-term, he says he would bet on Strasburg because of the 100MPH fastball and because of the workload that Darvish has faced in NPB so far.

Chapman comes a distant third after those two because his stuff is erratic (which has been completely true so far)

[kelso]

Really...? On a Jays board?

Yah, I know- not making friends, thats for sure . I could not successfully argue Reyes over Bautista- it just comes down to the fact that I have seen this prolonged hole at the top of the order. They should have left Rios there, they didnt. I think you waste a guy like Bautista in the leadoff spot as you need his power to bring in baserunners.