RealGM Top 100 List #7

[Vinsanity420]

Fencer forget about it --- he's just going to bring out HCA even if you do counter all his points.

[penbeast0]

James is the only player yet to be nominated who was clearly the best player in the league at some point during his career.

Mikan?

[Die93]

The Finals are important, thats the biggest stage.

Look at Lebron James who i believe is the best player in the NBA. He Killed the celtics especially game which was one of the best closeout performances ive ever scene. He dominated the Bulls and shutdown the League MVP closed them out in Rose's HOUSE. It was amazing, And at the end of the day no one cares because he couldnt get it done on the biggest stage. What you do in the finals leaves a lasting image

[Vinsanity420]

Mikan?

Take into account both peak and career play, era dominance, impact on the game of basketball, and how well their style of play and skills would transcend onto different eras.

[penbeast0]

OK, the voting looks like this as best as I could tell (for those who might want to leave weaker candidates to try to push their second guy over the top) . . .

Shaq 10
Duncan 8
Hakeem 3 (but they are a really vocal three!)
Kobe 1

Nominations:

LeBron 9
Mikan 6
Barkley 3
DRob 2
Dirk 1

[Dr Positivity]

I think Pettit may have had it for '56 post Mikan, pre Russell

[Vinsanity420]

Hakeem only had 3?!?!?!?

I need Bastillon for support.

[Dr Positivity]

Isn't voting open for 2 days? This thread went up last night...

[SDChargers#1]

Just to get my vote in, since it won't matter in the end anyway...

Vote: Kobe
Nomination: Barkley

[An Unbiased Fan]

"Unbiased Fan",

Are you basically suggesting that the only difference between Kobe's and Bird's assists was the overall pace/scoring in their respective eras?

That still wouldn't put Kobe's passing close to a par with Bird's, by the way, but it would make some of what you're saying sound more sensible.

I'm speaking more to their roles, and actual on-court offensive impact.

Kobe had to be put up massive PTS% volume scoring numbers, while at the same time, facilitating elite AST% numbers, within LA's offense. His direct relation to points scored is around 38-45 PPG during his prime.

Now Bird's a better passer, skill-wise. However, his actual utilization of that skill on-court didn't result in a higher assist rate than Kobe. To compare, Magic was putting up 45% AST% numbers in his prime, and Nash was around there too, including 55.8% in 2007.

Bird in his prime had a direct relation to about 40-42 PPG. So in actual on-court offensive impact, Bird didn't outperform Kobe. And both led great offenses. I have both on par with each other offensively.

I don't see where AST% is an indicator of much except a guy's job description.
I don't see where job description is an overwhelming indicator of the quality of a guy's play or performance.

Take some team with a legit swingman, so that we can substitute Bird for Kobe or vice-versa one-for-one without being ridiculous. Put in Bird for Kobe. Bird's team is more likely to score. Why?

* Bird is better without the ball. Hard to dispute that.
* Bird, as you say, has more passing skills. (Lots more, actually.)
* Put the ball in his hands and Bird is better at scoring than Kobe in almost every scenario. (One possible exception -- on the 3-pt line, guarded by somebody really, really big, in which case Kobe can drive around him better than Bird can.)

I would say AST% speaks a bit to on-court impact. John Stockton has seven 50%+ AST% seasons, which speaks to the huge impact he had carrying that Jazz offense. Now that doesn't mean he was a better passer than Magic or Nash, but it does tell us how impactful he was to Utah's offensive production.

I brought up AST% and PTS% to demonstrate the impact Kobe was having on both scoring & distributing. This is refelcted in the 40-45 PPG he directly produced during his prime.

Now you bring up some intersting questions in comparison of Bird to Kobe.
1) Bird is better off the ball, but Kobe is still elite.
2) Bird has more passing skills, but functionally, Kobe is still a great passer, and also elite at the drive & kick out. As a facilitator, Kobe is one of the best ever at managing floor spacing & balance.
3) If you put the ball in Kobe's hands, I think he's better at scoring. He has the ability to drive to the hoop, he's better on the break as a scoring threat, and a great shooter as well. His PTS% rate is off the charts.
4) Overall, both have Top 3 skillsets all-time, so we're grasping at straws. But for their careers, Kobe was directly responsible for more points scored than Bird. There's obviously an indirect factor in play, though that's a bit hard to sort out.

[ElGee]

OK, with 50 minutes left to go the voting looks like this as best as I could tell (for those who might want to leave weaker candidates to try to push their second guy over the top) . . .

Shaq 10
Duncan 8
Hakeem 3 (but they are a really vocal three!)
Kobe 1

Nominations:

LeBron 9
Mikan 6
Barkley 3
DRob 2
Dirk 1

Timeout. You really need to put a deadline on these threads. I thought this was ending tomorrow. (And how does Hakeem only have 3 votes???)

[ElGee]

Hopefully, there is a day left still. So I'm going to re-post this information, along with Tim Duncan's in/out data. Included is parens is the sample size:

Duncan 05 +11.2 to 10.0 (10g)*
Hakeem 1992 +10.6 to -0.2 (12g)
Hakeem 1996 +10.4 to 3.0 (10g)
Shaq 00-01 +7.7 to 6.5 (10g)
Shaq 03 +7.6 to 3.7 (15g)
Hakeem 1986 +7.3 to 6.5 (14g)
Hakeem 1995 +7.3 to 3.0 (10g)
Shaq 02 +5.1 to 8.1 (15g)
Duncan 04 +4.7 to 8.0 (13g)
Shaq 1996 +4.4 to 7.1 (28g)
Shaq 1998 +3.5 to 8.7 (22g)
Shaq 1997 +2.9 to 5.4 (31g)
Hakeem 1991 +1.7 to 4.0 (26g)
Shaq 04 +1.4 to 4.2 (15g)
Duncan 2000 +0.2 to 6.0 (8g)

---

My quick take: Pre-peak Shaq was on some really good teams, and he elevated them moderately well. But then with something like 05 Duncan, you see a shift to a +10 team with Timmy in the lineup. Note that it's small sampled. *82games has his on/off at +17.3, 3 points better than his celebrated 2003 season.

Hakeem's teams weren't very good without him in any of those years, but early on you see a pretty impressive lift in 86 from ~average to elite (+6.5). Clearly he's able to strap mediocre overall teams on his back.

Shaq's peak doesn't look much different. If we take the 25g he missed from 00-02, we get +5.7 to 7.0. (ppg allowed hardly changes, offense improves.) The three closest clusters we have are:

Hakeem 95-96 +8.9 to 3.0 (20g)
Duncan 04-05 +8.2 to 9.0 (29g)
Shaq 00-02 +5.7 to 7.0 (25g)

[LikeABosh]

Still enough time to vote? If so

Vote: Shaq

Nominate: Barkley

[MarJJMar]

Vote: Shaq

Nominate: Nash

[lorak]

OK, with 50 minutes left to go the voting looks like this as best as I could tell (for those who might want to leave weaker candidates to try to push their second guy over the top) . . .

Shaq 10
Duncan 8
Hakeem 3 (but they are a really vocal three!)
Kobe 1

Nominations:

LeBron 9
Mikan 6
Barkley 3
DRob 2
Dirk 1

My count is little different, maybe you counted votes from people who aren't on the panel? Or maybe some people edited their posts?

Duncan 8 (Fencer reregistered, Dr Mufasa, mysticbb, Bucksfans1and2, penbeast0, Laimbeer, ThaRegul8r, FJS)
Shaq 8 (JordansBulls, ronnymac2, Gongxi, ElGee, Jay From LA, Snakebites, RoyceDa59, fatal9)
Hakeem 4 (Vinsanity420, DavidStern, Doctor MJ, pancakes3)
KB 2 (SDChargers#1, An Unbiased Fan)

(and if there will be tie I'm going to change my vote from Hakeem to Duncan)

nominations

LJ 7 (Vinsanity420, FJS, ronnymac2, Gongxi, ElGee, Jay From LA, RoyceDa59)
Mikan 6 (Fencer reregistered, Dr Mufasa, penbeast0, DavidStern, An Unbiased Fan, Laimbeer)
Barkley 5 (SDChargers#1, JordansBulls, Bucksfans1and2, pancakes3, fatal9)
Robinson 2 (TMACFORMVP, Snakebites)
Dirk 1 (mysticbb)

(ThaRegul8r and Doctor MJ so far didn't nominate anyone; TMACFORMVP nominated but didn't vote)

[lorak]

Hey ElGee, great post but wasn't the Rockets offense worse without Hakeem in 1995? In the 10 games Hakeem missed, their ORtg comes at 108.98 which is worse than their ORtg for the year which indicates the offense was better with Hakeem. I'm getting a different number for the DRtg too. I'm getting 113.1 instead of 116.2.

Actually, I have it as 116.8 (that was a typo on my part). Are you forgetting OT? It's an estimate anyway using B-R data...then again, let's double check we have the same 10 games.

On Houston's schedule, 16, 69, 70-76, 82.

I checked it too and my numbers are similar to OldSchoolNBA's:
without
108.96 ortg, 113.3 drtg

Calculation based on team game log from b-r.

And BTW, what's wrong with method that OldSchool used (sum of ortgs - so pace adjusted - from those 10 games divided by 10)?

[TMACFORMVP]

(ThaRegul8r and Doctor MJ so far didn't nominate anyone; TMACFORMVP nominated but didn't vote)

Probably just missed it, but I put in an official vote for Shaq earlier in the same post with the Robinson nomination.

[penbeast0]

Each thread is supposed to be up for 48 hours so I am wrong, thought I put it up Sunday morning but it was Monday morning so midnight tonight.

MarJJMar and LikeABosh, you aren't registered as voters. If you want to register, PM me and I will forward your names to Baller and DrMJ to see if either recognize you as an intelligent poster here on the PC Board. If you get one of us three to vouch for you, you will get a PM back adding you to the list for the next thread (you won't be added for the thread that is active when you asked to join but for the next one).

DavidStern, went back and doubled checked and you are right. I didn't count one Hakeem vote because the voter instead of listing his vote just quoted another voter and said "like this except Dirk over Barkley" or some such. I also counted two voters who aren't registered, Dan_atko97 and Keysoftheraw, and it's close enough that these things matter.

Also, Sedale Threatt, while posting some good posts, has not voted that I saw.

[UDRIH14]

besides 3 year peak stats and volume stats prior to those seasons, does anyone else in here feel that shaq underperformed from a team standpoint?

From the 94/95 magics finals appearance till his first championship at the lakers, his team should be contending or going deep in the playoffs...does anyone have a list...besides the 3peat i feel he underperformed, with this sort of worth ethic and attitude some of you guys think he could dominate in other eras....

[pancakes3]

The Finals are important, thats the biggest stage.

no. the finals matter because it's a quick and dirty way to sum up playoff success. it's a safe assumption to say "well player x made it to the finals as the lead guy on his team so he must have had a pretty successful postseason run," yeah Lebron had a decent playoffs minus the finals but Dirk had a phenomenal playoff run of his own and it's just easier to point to his Finals MVP and say boom - he was better than LBJ this year (as the POY thread backs up).

Elgee's point still holds water though. 2004 was clearly KG's year. He was hands down the best player in the league. In '03 TMac had a pretty strong case in '03, MJ in the late 80's... etc. none of whom won the championship in those years. So... yeah playoff stats are nice and all but they don't tell the WHOLE story.

What I find even more misleading are the head-to-head stats, especially as a signal for defensive ability. Man-to-man defense is only half of a big man's defensive responsibility. As the man down low, a big man has to rebound, deter dribble penetration, rotate on screens, play the pick and roll, and a multitude of other defensive responsibilities. This is what some refer to as "team defense" and it shows up on "team drtg". Those who say "we can't penalize Shaq for what his TEAM does defensively" are utterly wrong. We can absolutely point to Shaq's mediocre team defensive ratings over the years and say that he was mediocre at defense at best. His man-to-man defense was excellent but he never did the little things on team-defense to make his squad competitive defensively.

This is why I find it hard to reconcile the offensive advantages of shaq over the defensive advantages of hakeem. Duncan? sure. TD only topped 25 ppg once in his career while alternating between sub/over .500 shooting but Hakeem was a legit scoring threat AND a halfway decent FT shooter. Compare that with Shaq who really has only 1 FULL sub-100 drtg season (corroborates the eye test that 2000 was the only year he really played defense) and considering Dream has 8 such seasons... i implore those of you who voted Shaq to reconsider.