RealGM Top 100 List #9 -- Post Shot Clock Only (No Mikan)

[Baller 24]

Next thread should be fun - traffic jam at #10 - The Malones, Kobe, KG, West, Oscar, and Erving. 7 guys for 1 spot.

Nominations also get harder. Wade, Robinson, Hondo, Pippen, Fraizer, Ewing, Petite, Barry, Isiah, & Nash.

I want to make some cases between Ewing v Robinson, I think that'd be very interesting. Most likely have Wade before all of these guys though.

[An Unbiased Fan]

The problem with Odom is that he was often hurt, and wildly inconsitent back then. He only played 64 games in 05', and 56 games in 07'. In fact, those teams were besieged with multiple injuries in that 3 year span, which makes it even more impressive that they made the playoffs in a tough conference. The Laker's front court was an IR mess.

Impressive that he won 45 & 42 games? Ehh, seems about right, nothing incredibly impressive about that IMO, especially considering in '06 the west aside from the Spurs & Mavs was very weakened from the prior year (only three 50 + win teams, kind of like the '01 AI Sixers run), with multiple stars injured (Suns--Amar'e, McGrady & Yao -- Rockets, T-Wolves---blown up roster) .

I have to ask then, if Kobe leading those teams to the playoffs wasn't impressive, then how did a Prime KG not lead Minny there? I mean Minny had 33 & 32 wins the same years, and negative SRS.

If we want to look at box score production of the supporting cast then...

2006:
Minny had Wally who put up nearly 50/40/90 shooting on 60.1% TS, and 20.1 PPG

When he was traded, Minny's record was 19-21. After that Minny went 14-28.....And stayed bad the next year. So perhaps Wally's offensive impact was underrated.

2007:
Ricky Davis gives Minny 17 PPG on more efficient shooting than KG had that year.

I don't see how the Laker support was better. They seem about even.

[Dr Positivity]

Ewing is the guy I'll probably have higher than other people. I'm on board with one of the most effective ways to judge this is deciding which guy/career you'd rather have. And that's where Ewing starts to look pretty damn good because of the value of a d/rebounding C who is productive for a really long time and is the ultimate constant work/effort player as shown by his GOAT sweat machine ability. For example yesterday half the people in the Barkley/Ewing thread said Ewing was the more intelligent choice to build a franchise with. I'm not sure that's true, but it's certainly a hard question, and Barkley will make top 20. Ask me whether I'd have Ewing over Pettit, Pippen, Havlicek, Stockton, Baylor, 5 guys that beat him last time, I'd say "yes please".

[colts18]

Garnett made the WCF with Gary Trent, Darrick Martin, Ervin Johnson and Ndudi Ebi!

The difference is the scrubs Kobe played with actually played significant minutes. Smush Parker started 82 games in both seasons and averaged 30+ MPG. Then the next year he leaves the Lakers. That was his last year in the NBA. That's right, the guy goes from 82 game 30+ MPG starter to out of the NBA within a year. Cook, Radmonovic, Walton, Brown, Mihm, Evans all played significant minutes.

[cpower]

Vote - Hakeem Olajuwon

Nominations - Dirk Nowitzki

I feel that Hakeem is the best player in this group, best skilled big man on both side of floor. Back to back champ and back to back final MVPS are the icing on the cake.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Ewing is the guy I'll probably have higher than other people. I'm on board with one of the most effective ways to judge this is deciding which guy/career you'd rather have. And that's where Ewing starts to look pretty damn good because of the value of a d/rebounding C who is productive for a really long time and is the ultimate constant work/effort player as shown by his GOAT sweat machine ability. For example yesterday half the people in the Barkley/Ewing thread said Ewing was the more intelligent choice to build a franchise with. I'm not sure that's true, but it's certainly a hard question, and Barkley will make top 20. Ask me whether I'd have Ewing over Pettit, Pippen, Havlicek, Stockton, Baylor, 5 guys that beat him last time, I'd say "yes please".

Ewing is an interesting case, and I think you may be right about him being somewhat underrated. He a victim of the golden age of centers, kinda like how Webber gets underrated because he played in the golden era for PFs.

[ElGee]

It is a pretty seismic difference in accomplishments since '05.

It would be like saying, in '91 everyone would have taken Magic over Jordan. Come '98 though Jordan had clearly surpassed him.

While this is a good analogy, the parallel isn't the same.

First of all, KG was WAY ahead of Kobe in 2005 ITO of what he gives you over a career. KG was comparable to Kobe in 2006 IMO. Just as a ballpark measure, at that point in time I'd have Kobe somewhere between 30 and 35 and probably behind someone like Clyde Drexler. KG was ~ top 20.

Then in 2006, they are quite comparable. 2007, Kobe's better. 2008, I think Kobe's better by a similar margin again, but it was a big year from KG (I thought he was MVP, he won RPOY). It's really the last 3 years where Kobe makes huge strides on Garnett, bringing his career value into the same ballpark.

KG missed the playoffs

First of all, KG didn't miss the playoffs. His team did. The project criteria is incredible clear on this -- we want to focus on individuals. The idea that Kobe and KG were in comparable situations, all we have to is isolate everyone else and look at team W-L as a reflection of player value is not only naive it's spectacularly wrong. It'd be like suggesting Dallas and New Orleans had similar teams this year.

I've written about this a number of times, here are the cliff notes:

*Minnesota lost 4 consecutive 1st round draft picks. Strip that from any team, and they will struggle massively
*Minnesota lost all of its best complimentary players to crippling injuries (Gugliotta, Brandon, Szczerbiak). This hurt the team on the court and crippled value in trade assets
*Dwayne Casey was no Phil Jackson

The 2005 team is a near 2 SRS team that misses the PS. The biggest difference is in defensive drop, in which they lose a guy like Johnson at center and have the loping, lost Michael Olowokandi trying to play (and he was a disaster). Cassell is injured, Spree on his last legs and post-injury Wally is a defensive liability. They still finish 15th on D and 6th in offense.

In 2006, the whole thing collapses with Casey at the plate. (I Know drza has some great posts about these teams -- he can fill in.) Consider that teams roster though of over 100 min:

Blount, Banks, Griffin, McCants, Davis, Wally, Jaric, Hassell

That's it! I'm not leaving out a Lamar Odom. Wally, Banks and Blount missed half the year. Justin Reed started 6 games! Ronald Dupree, Richie Frahm and Bracie Wright got burn! What's so significant about that?

Well when you put together a bunch of players who can't play in the league with a coach who can't, the offense will absolutely stink (28th). Oh, all bad teams are created equally? No, no they aren't. There is a giant different between a team with balance, roles, other creators, like http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... r_by_asc=Y

Kobe's "Historic" Scoring season

I'm not sure why this is brought up, other than to overstate value. Yes, it was an historic scoring season. So was Wilt's 1962. So was Barkley's 1988 or Dantley's 1982. None of them were GOAT offensive level seasons, so pointing to it speak of a misunderstanding of offensive team dynamics or just an attempt to arbitrarily prop someone up. Why not reference Garnett's 04 as an "historic?" Or KG's "historic" opening decade (one of 4 players to avg. 20-11-4 for first 10 years).

The season's been put under a microscope, including in the RPOY, so I won't say much more here, other than to note the obvious that plenty of players have taken mediocre teams to ~.500...I consider 2006 Bryant's 5th or 6th best season, so again it's strange to hear it referenced in a debate like this in which I assume we all understand jacking up a billion shots, while helpful at times, does not equate to GOATness.

[andrewww]

vote: kobe
nominate: dirk

EDIT: i cant believe baylor hasnt gotten nominated yet. he's most certainly in the top 20 imo.

[Baller 24]

The problem with Odom is that he was often hurt, and wildly inconsitent back then. He only played 64 games in 05', and 56 games in 07'. In fact, those teams were besieged with multiple injuries in that 3 year span, which makes it even more impressive that they made the playoffs in a tough conference. The Laker's front court was an IR mess.

Impressive that he won 45 & 42 games? Ehh, seems about right, nothing incredibly impressive about that IMO, especially considering in '06 the west aside from the Spurs & Mavs was very weakened from the prior year (only three 50 + win teams, kind of like the '01 AI Sixers run), with multiple stars injured (Suns--Amar'e, McGrady & Yao -- Rockets, T-Wolves---blown up roster) .

I have to ask then, if Kobe leading those teams to the playoffs wasn't impressive, then how did a Prime KG not lead Minny there? I mean Minny had 33 & 32 wins the same years, and negative SRS.

If we want to look at box score production of the supporting cast then...

2006:
Minny had Wally who put up nearly 50/40/90 shooting on 60.1% TS, and 20.1 PPG

When he was traded, Minny's record was 19-21. After that Minny went 14-28.....And stayed bad the next year. So perhaps Wally's offensive impact was underrated.

2007:
Ricky Davis gives Minny 17 PPG on more efficient shooting than KG had that year.

I don't see how the Laker support was better. They seem about even.

Let's save this argument for later. It'll save us both a lot of time.

Ewing is an interesting case, and I think you may be right about him being somewhat underrated. He a victim of the golden age of centers, kinda like how Webber gets underrated because he played in the golden era for PFs.

And he gets very very underrated. He anchored and consistently did so one of the greatest---if not the greatest defense we've ever seen, and those teams were PHYSICAL. I guess Robinson's impact in the '99 Spurs run gives him a slight edge, but he's likely got to be considered sooner than later. And if you ask some of the old guys, they'll state that Ewing/Robinson were both considered better than Olajuwon before those championship runs.

[Baller 24]

It is a pretty seismic difference in accomplishments since '05.

It would be like saying, in '91 everyone would have taken Magic over Jordan. Come '98 though Jordan had clearly surpassed him.

While this is a good analogy, the parallel isn't the same.

First of all, KG was WAY ahead of Kobe in 2005 ITO of what he gives you over a career. KG was comparable to Kobe in 2006 IMO. Just as a ballpark measure, at that point in time I'd have Kobe somewhere between 30 and 35 and probably behind someone like Clyde Drexler. KG was ~ top 20.

Then in 2006, they are quite comparable. 2007, Kobe's better. 2008, I think Kobe's better by a similar margin again, but it was a big year from KG (I thought he was MVP, he won RPOY). It's really the last 3 years where Kobe makes huge strides on Garnett, bringing his career value into the same ballpark.

KG missed the playoffs

First of all, KG didn't miss the playoffs. His team did. The project criteria is incredible clear on this -- we want to focus on individuals. The idea that Kobe and KG were in comparable situations, all we have to is isolate everyone else and look at team W-L as a reflection of player value is not only naive it's spectacularly wrong. It'd be like suggesting Dallas and New Orleans had similar teams this year.

I've written about this a number of times, here are the cliff notes:

*Minnesota lost 4 consecutive 1st round draft picks. Strip that from any team, and they will struggle massively
*Minnesota lost all of its best complimentary players to crippling injuries (Gugliotta, Brandon, Szczerbiak). This hurt the team on the court and crippled value in trade assets
*Dwayne Casey was no Phil Jackson

The 2005 team is a near 2 SRS team that misses the PS. The biggest difference is in defensive drop, in which they lose a guy like Johnson at center and have the loping, lost Michael Olowokandi trying to play (and he was a disaster). Cassell is injured, Spree on his last legs and post-injury Wally is a defensive liability. They still finish 15th on D and 6th in offense.

In 2006, the whole thing collapses with Casey at the plate. (I Know drza has some great posts about these teams -- he can fill in.) Consider that teams roster though of over 100 min:

Blount, Banks, Griffin, McCants, Davis, Wally, Jaric, Hassell

That's it! I'm not leaving out a Lamar Odom. Wally, Banks and Blount missed half the year. Justin Reed started 6 games! Ronald Dupree, Richie Frahm and Bracie Wright got burn! What's so significant about that?

Well when you put together a bunch of players who can't play in the league with a coach who can't, the offense will absolutely stink (28th). Oh, all bad teams are created equally? No, no they aren't. There is a giant different between a team with balance, roles, other creators, like http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... r_by_asc=Y

Kobe's "Historic" Scoring season

I'm not sure why this is brought up, other than to overstate value. Yes, it was an historic scoring season. So was Wilt's 1962. So was Barkley's 1988 or Dantley's 1982. None of them were GOAT offensive level seasons, so pointing to it speak of a misunderstanding of offensive team dynamics or just an attempt to arbitrarily prop someone up. Why not reference Garnett's 04 as an "historic?" Or KG's "historic" opening decade (one of 4 players to avg. 20-11-4 for first 10 years).

The season's been put under a microscope, including in the RPOY, so I won't say much more here, other than to note the obvious that plenty of players have taken mediocre teams to ~.500...I consider 2006 Bryant's 5th or 6th best season, so again it's strange to hear it referenced in a debate like this in which I assume we all understand jacking up a billion shots, while helpful at times, does not equate to GOATness.

Great post.

[Dr Positivity]

And he gets very very underrated. He anchored and consistently did so one of the greatest---if not the greatest defense we've ever seen, and those teams were PHYSICAL. I guess Robinson's impact in the '99 Spurs run gives him a slight edge, but he's likely got to be considered sooner than later. And if you ask some of the old guys, they'll state that Ewing/Robinson were both considered better than Olajuwon before those championship runs.

Yeah, I'm thinking slight edge to Robinson too, despite less prime/close to prime seasons. But I'm actually probably voting Ewing after Robinson. Among the other guys, Walt Frazier's prime is just too short for me (I'm going to have to be convinced why he should go above Gary Payton)- not entirely buying Havlicek, Pippen, Stockton going above any of these alpha caliber players, not that impressed by Baylor or Barry's volume scoring to Ewing's interior impact. Pettit I've decided to drop to the 30s or 40s spots because he's frankly just not as good as these guys. Isiah? I'm interested to see how he grades out for people, I'm of the opinion he did the right thing taking a statistical drop for the better of the team from his 20/13 prime.

[ElGee]

To follow up on my last post, focusing on Bryant, I've written a bunch about him. I'll try and summarize...

High Volume
Here's a 3-part exploration of variance a high volume I did in wing. This post has the take home graph I think:
http://www.backpicks.com/2011/02/12/var ... s-part-ii/

When Kobe shoots a lot, it's not necessarily helpful in a balanced team setting. Better to play up the other 4 guys (even open shots for Derek Fisher, Robert Horry, Brian Shaw) than to try and go at it alone. BUT, when the Lakers were weak (05-07, or even in 03 without Shaq), cranking it up helps them. The key aspect of this is that it does not help them to some super-human proportions. Taking bad offensive teams and lifting them up with bulk scoring is one kind of goodness, but it needs to be held in perspective, else let's get ready to vote in Iverson and McGrady soon.

The Playoffs and D Quality
The next question was of playoff quality. Kobe's basically played the hardest of his contemporaries, but that should be kept in perspective with his performance: http://www.backpicks.com/2011/07/02/who ... n-part-ii/

Relative to himself, Kobe's an excellent overall playoff performer. Relative to his competition, there's no separation anywhere. Relative to his arch rivals, he arguably looks the weakest: http://www.backpicks.com/2011/03/02/kob ... e-quality/

And I'll add, since there was an allusion to playing elite defenses in the nomination round, that LeBron James, since he hit his stride, has been spectacular against elite defenses. Kobe, OTOH, generally struggles against them -- probably because of his tendency to settle for bad jumpers which lowers his own offense while ramping down creation for others.

James last 25 games vs. sub 104 defenses:
30.9 ppg 8.3 rpg 6.4 apg 1.8 stl 1.4 blck 4.0 TOV 57.0% TS 23.8 GmSc

Volume and the Playoffs

But if we dig deeper, and return to the idea of high volume and team quality, look at what happens to Kobe in the playoffs: http://www.backpicks.com/2011/05/18/hig ... on-part-i/

He has "bad" shooting games almost as frequently as efficiency strugglers Malone and Garnett, but his team suffers mightily. We expect this, because LA in the playoffs for most of the decade was a high-quality team. In those settings, you don't want a high volume, high variance guy sucking up a lot of possessions, and that was wont to happen with Bryant. I think a lot of his playoff performances were good, but this idea should be held in mind when celebrating his volume scoring. This was someone who tried to press a button and take over with scoring *a lot,* only that failed an awful lot.

Finally, because I know others hold some extra value in these endgame situations, Bryant has fallen apart this decade in elimination games: http://www.backpicks.com/2011/06/12/the ... ince-1991/ And he's had struggles in the Finals, although I'll take this opportunity to strive home that it really doesn't matter if a player stinks in the CF or the Finals, and as is sometimes the case the hardest opponent can come earlier (eg SAS in 01 or Sac in 02). I take these things as small slivers of the pie, and I think others should too.

[lorak]

I'm not sure why this is brought up, other than to overstate value. Yes, it was an historic scoring season. So was Wilt's 1962. So was Barkley's 1988 or Dantley's 1982. None of them were GOAT offensive level seasons,

I'm not so sure: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking06
So that year Kobe offensively was even better than Nash!

[RoyceDa59]

Hakeem, Garnett, Moses and Dr. J all belong ahead of Kobe.

[colts18]

Hakeem, Garnett, Moses and Dr. J all belong ahead of Kobe.

KG ahead of Kobe Kobe never missed the playoffs 3 straight years in the middle of his prime. For all of KG's "impact", it never showed on the team W-L record except for 2004 and 2008. Kobe averaged 30-5-5 for 3 straight finals years while KG was declining. There is literally no argument for KG ahead of Kobe other than absolute 1 year peak. Kobe has everything else like longevity, longer prime, more playoff success, accolades, etc.

[Laimbeer]

If not too late

Vote: Kobe
Nominate: Isiah Thomas

[Baller 24]

KG ahead of Kobe Kobe never missed the playoffs 3 straight years in the middle of his prime. For all of KG's "impact", it never showed on the team W-L record except for 2004 and 2008. Kobe averaged 30-5-5 for 3 straight finals years while KG was declining. There is literally no argument for KG ahead of Kobe other than absolute 1 year peak. Kobe has everything else like longevity, longer prime, more playoff success, accolades, etc.

Not disagreeing on certain aspects, but did you take a look at ElGee's post? Aside from that, in what kind of world has Bryant averaged 30-5-5 for three straight finals? He's actually not a consistent finals performer, actually not tier 1 in any level.

[ElGee]

I'm not sure why this is brought up, other than to overstate value. Yes, it was an historic scoring season. So was Wilt's 1962. So was Barkley's 1988 or Dantley's 1982. None of them were GOAT offensive level seasons,

I'm not so sure: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking06
So that year Kobe offensively was even better than Nash!

1. RAPM is a tool, it is not a definitive measurement. Doug Christie for nomination!
2. Even RAPM doesn't know that it's easier to lift -10 to 0 than 0 to +10. You can see this in Kobe's huge on/off that year and the team's impressive ORtg. It's an good thing to point at to suggest that volume year IS really good, but I'm more impressed with what he did in other seasons. (What's the difference between 06 and 07, for instance?)

[Baller 24]

Yeah, I'm thinking slight edge to Robinson too, despite less prime/close to prime seasons. But I'm actually probably voting Ewing after Robinson. Among the other guys, Walt Frazier's prime is just too short for me (I'm going to have to be convinced why he should go above Gary Payton)- not entirely buying Havlicek, Pippen, Stockton going above any of these alpha caliber players, not that impressed by Baylor or Barry's volume scoring to Ewing's interior impact. Pettit I've decided to drop to the 30s or 40s spots because he's frankly just not as good as these guys. Isiah? I'm interested to see how he grades out for people, I'm of the opinion he did the right thing taking a statistical drop for the better of the team from his 20/13 prime.

I can understand arguments over Robinson too. I mean let's be frank here, with Robinson's similar if not worse level of drops in the playoffs, would he have gotten past Jordan's Bulls even in a single one of those seasons? He's got a higher peak for sure, but Ewing's a little different, and I feel he's a much better anchor (at historic levels obviously). Isiah is on Fraizer's end IMHO, except with a longer prime. They were both the most important players on their championship runs, along with being the leaders. Willis Reed gets very overrated, whereas Bill Walton, despite his relatively short prime, has a very high peak, with an interesting mix later in his career. What about Wade? I've still got him in the top 25, very easily.

[colts18]

KG ahead of Kobe Kobe never missed the playoffs 3 straight years in the middle of his prime. For all of KG's "impact", it never showed on the team W-L record except for 2004 and 2008. Kobe averaged 30-5-5 for 3 straight finals years while KG was declining. There is literally no argument for KG ahead of Kobe other than absolute 1 year peak. Kobe has everything else like longevity, longer prime, more playoff success, accolades, etc.

Not disagreeing on certain aspects, but did you take a look at ElGee's post? Aside from that, in what kind of world has Bryant averaged 30-5-5 for three straight finals? He's actually not a consistent finals performer, actually not tier 1 in any level.

That's what he averaged in the playoffs those years. 30-6-6-2-1 on .570 TS%. That is a 67 game playoff sample over 3 years. KG never once had a playoff like that let alone for 3 straight years. The Celtics went 40-20 (.667) without KG. You think that happens with Kobe and the Lakers? I doubt it.