Andray Blatche - Resurgence Thread ( Merged )

[theboomking]

Blatche tends to post "empty stats". He can score, but not with enough efficiency to be a primary scorer. He can play decent defense at times, but not consistently enough to be considered a good defender. He's lazy at times on the court and has a less than perfect work ethic. So far in his career, he has been your typical "good player on a bad team". He's just good enough to lose with.

That doesnt make him a bad fantasy player though. He's going to get plenty of minutes because the team lacks any other big men with refined offensive skills. It's a pretty good bet that he'll average 16+ points per game and 8 or more boards while blocking a few shots and getting more steals and assists than an average PF.

Hard to imagine him doing worse than that.

This could be an interesting team considering Nick averaged 17 pts last year and most believe Wall will be better this year.

While this team was really young and wasn't together the whole year, just look over the stats.

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/stats/_/nam ... on-wizards

PG Wall 16.4 8.3 assits
SG NY 17.4 2.7 rebs
PF Dray 16.8 8 rebs

That's not so bad considering all are young. One was a rookie. One was starting for the first time and one was injured all year. Now they are surrounded by more tough guys and you also have Craw as scorers and if Lewis is healthy he should be good for 10-12 pts off the bench. Now if McGee can get a reliable move, that could start to gel.

Now with enough touches, I see no reason Nick can't go for 20 pts a game. Dray as the second option could be 17-20. Wall doesn't really need to do much more than he did. This could actually work when you consider the other people that can score and better D. If they are healthy.

I be stunned if Wall doesn't score more. Even if he just maintains his scoring average and shooting percentages from after the All Star break, he will score with more volume and more efficiency. With all of the work he's putting into his jumper, passing lanes and driving lanes are also going to open up. I expect 18-19ppg on 43-44%. I actually think Wall's assist number could remain stable or decline. Young and Rashard are the only shooters we have. Who is Wall going to pass to, especially if we are able to amnesty Rashard?

Regarding Blatche, if we have a season, I expect Blatche to look better. Hopefully he has a fantastic season and we are able to trade him.

[Nivek]

[quote="hands11"PG Wall 16.4 8.3 ast
SG NY 17.4 2.7 rebs
PF Dray 16.8 8 rebs[/quote]

Another relevant (though less flattering) stat -- offensive efficiency.

Wall -- 100 points produced per 100 possessions
Young -- 107
Blatche -- 100

League Average -- 107.3

[theboomking]

[quote="hands11"PG Wall 16.4 8.3 ast
SG NY 17.4 2.7 rebs
PF Dray 16.8 8 rebs

Another relevant (though less flattering) stat -- offensive efficiency.

Wall -- 100 points produced per 100 possessions
Young -- 107
Blatche -- 100

League Average -- 107.3[/quote]

Where does McGee fall? What website do you use to follow this stat?

I expect Wall's offensive efficiency to look much better next year. Is there any way to know how Wall's offensive efficiency looked after the All Star break last year?

[Nivek]

McGee's ortg last season was 111, albeit with a low usage rate.

You can find this stat at Basketball Reference. Great site.

[hands11]

[quote="hands11"PG Wall 16.4 8.3 ast
SG NY 17.4 2.7 rebs
PF Dray 16.8 8 rebs

Another relevant (though less flattering) stat -- offensive efficiency.

Wall -- 100 points produced per 100 possessions
Young -- 107
Blatche -- 100

League Average -- 107.3[/quote]

Yeah. I expect all three to be more efficient on a more in tune team.

[Nivek]

By what mechanism will the team become "in tune" when the biggest possession users are so inefficient?

[TGW]

I expect Wall to improve his efficiency. Young and Blatche will stay the same. I don't see Blatche improving his efficiency...he's still going to take too many jumpshots and make too many dumb dribble moves behind his back that lead to turnovers.

[Nivek]

I agree completely, TGW. Wall's efficiency should improve significantly. Young and Blatche could improve, but probably are what they are at this point. There are exceptions, but most NBA players do whatever improving their going to do by their fourth season. Having looked at ~1100 players (so far) in my draft pick analysis project, it's amazing how frequently a player's PER through 4 seasons is within a point or two of his career PER -- whether the guy plays 2 more years or 6 or 10. There are exceptions, but not many.

When I'm finished with step one of the draft pick project, I'll probably go back and look at career arcs. I've been systematically looking at 4-year production (because that's the length of rookie contracts), and eyeballing career numbers along the way. My impression is that significant improvement after the 4th season is pretty rare. I want more than an impression, though.

There are reasons to hope that Blatche and Young will improve. They'd be bucking the historical trend if they do, however.

[doclinkin]

I agree completely, TGW. Wall's efficiency should improve significantly. Young and Blatche could improve, but probably are what they are at this point. There are exceptions, but most NBA players do whatever improving their going to do by their fourth season. Having looked at ~1100 players (so far) in my draft pick analysis project, it's amazing how frequently a player's PER through 4 seasons is within a point or two of his career PER -- whether the guy plays 2 more years or 6 or 10. There are exceptions, but not many.

When I'm finished with step one of the draft pick project, I'll probably go back and look at career arcs. I've been systematically looking at 4-year production (because that's the length of rookie contracts), and eyeballing career numbers along the way. My impression is that significant improvement after the 4th season is pretty rare. I want more than an impression, though.

There are reasons to hope that Blatche and Young will improve. They'd be bucking the historical trend if they do, however.

I'm most curious about the exceptions. How this relates to age, or schooling. Whether coaching changes make significant differences. And you know, whether their zodiac sign makes any difference

[Nivek]

My guess is zodiac time is more significant.

[theboomking]

My guess is zodiac time is more significant.

Are you also analyzing by position. Everyone on the board seems to talk about how centers seem to take so much longer. I'd be curious to see how different the learning curve is for centers and PG's who reportedly also develop more slowly.

[Nivek]

My guess is zodiac time is more significant.

Are you also analyzing by position. Everyone on the board seems to talk about how centers seem to take so much longer. I'd be curious to see how different the learning curve is for centers and PG's who reportedly also develop more slowly.

I will when I look at it formally. Just eyeballing the data, I haven't seen a trend for big men taking longer. That truism feels true for PGs, though. I'll know a lot more when I get around to that part of the project.

[jazzfan1971]

Is there a thread or location to discuss your project? If so, let me know I'd be very interested to see the updates.

I would guess a lot of the exceptions are based more on role than anything. A bench player moves to a team where he gets to start, like a Dorell Wright or Jermaine O'Neal.

[Nivek]

Just looked at Wright. His 4-year PER was 13.4; his career PER is 14.2. His 4th year PER (looking only at his 4th season) was 14.4. Throw out the 08-09 season where he played just 6 games, and his next PER was 14.5 followed by 15.0. He actually seems to fit the pattern I've been seeing -- a) his career PER (so far) is within a couple points of his 4-year PER (0.8 to be exact), and b) he has not improved significantly (at least not when looking at PER) since his 4th season. He appears to have done most of his improving by the end of his 4th year.

O'Neal fits more of what you're talking about. His 4-year PER was 13.2. 4th year PER was 13.3. Then in year 5, his PER jumped to 17.5, then 18.1, to a peak of 22.9. That improvement came after he left Portland and came to Indiana where he got the opportunity to play. He ended up having 4 seasons with a PER above 20.0, which is typically All-Star level.

There's a bit of a dark cloud for Wizards fans hoping Blatche will follow that career trajectory. Blatche played about 1800 more minutes through his first 4 seasons than O'Neal did in his first 4. O'Neal started making up ground after that -- after 6 seasons, Blatche had played about 880 more minutes than O'Neal. Through 4 seasons, Blatche had started 64 games; O'Neal just 18.

Much of O'Neal's improvement appears to be related to usage. O'Neal's rebounding declined slightly (especially on the offensive end) as he played more, his turnover rate went down and his assists went up. But his offensive efficiency didn't budge -- it was terrible every year except 02-03 when it was average. Big thing that happened with him is his usage rate went from about 18.2 (in his 4 years in Portland) to a high of 36.2 in Indy. As has been shown, players can increase their PER by shooting more frequently -- even if they're missing. I can't remember the exact number, but PER goes up by shooting more if the percentage is like 30%.

It's going to be interesting to dig into this.

[nate33]

My two cents:

PER isn't a perfect statistic for measuring this kind of thing because it measures primarily offense. It is my subjective opinion that big men improve their offensive skills relatively quickly - on par with most guards and swing men. A big man's offensive game in his 4th season is probably going to be pretty close to his ceiling for his career. But defensively, I think there is a slower learning curve. It can take, 5, 6 or 7 years for a big man to really hit his prime defensively. And those improvements in years 5, 6 and 7 may be things that don't show up in PER. It's defensive rotations. It's not biting for pump fakes. It's pick and roll defense.

[JonathanJoseph]

My two cents:

PER isn't a perfect statistic for measuring this kind of thing because it measures primarily offense. It is my subjective opinion that big men improve their offensive skills relatively quickly - on par with most guards and swing men. A big man's offensive game in his 4th season is probably going to be pretty close to his ceiling for his career. But defensively, I think there is a slower learning curve. It can take, 5, 6 or 7 years for a big man to really hit his prime defensively. And those improvements in years 5, 6 and 7 may be things that don't show up in PER. It's defensive rotations. It's not biting for pump fakes. It's pick and roll defense.

Right. And I am still very skeptical of the results that tell me that big men do not improve significantly after 4 years. Whether Jermaine ONeal or Tyson Chandler or Brendan Haywood or Zack Randolph or Pau Gasol or Lamar Odom or Lamarcus Aldridge or even Kris Humprhies, there are plenty of empirical examples to the contrary whether the numbers indicate so or not.

Trying to use statistics to quantify results for one player to put him in context is one thing, but using statistics to make blanket statements about "basketball players" is a completely different undertaking.

Yes I do believe there is a good chance that Blatche will be an exception to the rule.

[montestewart]

^
I'd love for Blatche to be an exception, and don't even really dislike him (he's more goofy than a jerk) but why do you think he might be an exception?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I agree completely, TGW. Wall's efficiency should improve significantly. Young and Blatche could improve, but probably are what they are at this point. There are exceptions, but most NBA players do whatever improving their going to do by their fourth season. Having looked at ~1100 players (so far) in my draft pick analysis project, it's amazing how frequently a player's PER through 4 seasons is within a point or two of his career PER -- whether the guy plays 2 more years or 6 or 10. There are exceptions, but not many.

When I'm finished with step one of the draft pick project, I'll probably go back and look at career arcs. I've been systematically looking at 4-year production (because that's the length of rookie contracts), and eyeballing career numbers along the way. My impression is that significant improvement after the 4th season is pretty rare. I want more than an impression, though.

There are reasons to hope that Blatche and Young will improve. They'd be bucking the historical trend if they do, however.

Blatche is a tease of a player. He is capable of being good. His contract, size and youth are appealing. If he rebounded like Zach Randolph, I'd be higher on Andray. If he were nearly the shooter that Aldridge or Bosh are, I'd be higher on Andray. If he would consistently play good defense, I'd be higher on Andray.

Since he teases in so many areas after so many years, and because he's not a high-character guy, and because I don't think he's relish being a sixth man on a bad team; my number one agenda if I were Wizards GM would be to TRADE ANDRAY BLATCHE, and with the quickness.

Perhaps he will prove me wrong, but Blatche is inefficient offensively and he's a high usage player. He's not an athletic guy with lift who gives it up on both ends. He's not an energy guy. He's a guy who Flip tries to make KG out of.

If Flip stays, Andray would have to go.

Otherwise, I'd like to see another coach make Blatche accountable for doing little things and hustling, regardless of his role and minutes. That Blatche CAN be a very good big. A lot of playoff teams could have used Blatche's skill set. The Heat would probably be champs now if Blatche were their C. So might Boston. He can rebound and pass well enough and can certainly be an effective scorer on a team with better players.

My problem is Blatche isn't right for this young Wizards team IMO.

[7-Day Dray]

I agree completely, TGW. Wall's efficiency should improve significantly. Young and Blatche could improve, but probably are what they are at this point. There are exceptions, but most NBA players do whatever improving their going to do by their fourth season. Having looked at ~1100 players (so far) in my draft pick analysis project, it's amazing how frequently a player's PER through 4 seasons is within a point or two of his career PER -- whether the guy plays 2 more years or 6 or 10. There are exceptions, but not many.

When I'm finished with step one of the draft pick project, I'll probably go back and look at career arcs. I've been systematically looking at 4-year production (because that's the length of rookie contracts), and eyeballing career numbers along the way. My impression is that significant improvement after the 4th season is pretty rare. I want more than an impression, though.

There are reasons to hope that Blatche and Young will improve. They'd be bucking the historical trend if they do, however.

Blatche is a tease of a player. He is capable of being good. His contract, size and youth are appealing. If he rebounded like Zach Randolph, I'd be higher on Andray. If he were nearly the shooter that Aldridge or Bosh are, I'd be higher on Andray. If he would consistently play good defense, I'd be higher on Andray.

Since he teases in so many areas after so many years, and because he's not a high-character guy, and because I don't think he's relish being a sixth man on a bad team; my number one agenda if I were Wizards GM would be to TRADE ANDRAY BLATCHE, and with the quickness.

Perhaps he will prove me wrong, but Blatche is inefficient offensively and he's a high usage player. He's not an athletic guy with lift who gives it up on both ends. He's not an energy guy. He's a guy who Flip tries to make KG out of.

If Flip stays, Andray would have to go.

Otherwise, I'd like to see another coach make Blatche accountable for doing little things and hustling, regardless of his role and minutes. That Blatche CAN be a very good big. A lot of playoff teams could have used Blatche's skill set. The Heat would probably be champs now if Blatche were their C. So might Boston. He can rebound and pass well enough and can certainly be an effective scorer on a team with better players.

My problem is Blatche isn't right for this young Wizards team IMO.

I think it's ridiculous to say Blatche probably won't improve his efficiency. Many people discount that he was out of shape, which had a BIG effect on his efficiency. Because of the excess weight which slowed him down, he could barely beat his man off the dribble, so he had to settle for more jumpshots than he would've liked to, and it caused him to become TO prone.

But I agree with you CJJ about what you say about Flip. While I defend Dray a lot, I'm not going to give him too many excuses. His help D was pretty terrible a lot of times. I'm not sure if it was from lack of effort, or he was just clueless. And there were some games where he just refused to box out.

Flip likes Dray a lot, but to a fault. He said that if Dray can get his weight down, that he can become a dominant PF, which I agree with, but he doesn't hold him accountable. During the stretches when he was playing bad, Flip would keep him in the game and let him do his thing. When I see Dray miss rotations repeatedly and not box out, Flip leaves him in the game and doesn't tell him anything. But when McGee does these things, he immediately reserves a seat for McGee on the bench.

McGee needs to hold ALL his players accountable, but I'm not sure if he's that kind of coach, which makes me really question if he's the right coach for this team in the future. I have to evaluate him more this season (if we have a season).

But in order for Dray to realize his full potential, Flip needs to hold him accountable and discipline him when he doesn't do things the right way.

[JonathanJoseph]

^
I'd love for Blatche to be an exception, and don't even really dislike him (he's more goofy than a jerk) but why do you think he might be an exception?

Because I believe Blatche has more talent to harness, a higher ceiling, and thus has more to learn than the average straight-from-HS player.

I believe that Blatche has all-NBA potential. He will never be the 6th man that some here suggest, his god-given role is that of a go-to, high usage player that has the offense running through him in the post. For examples of what this could and should look like, look at any of the last 10 games of the season from either of the past 2 years (and the Wiz record in those games).

Lamar Odom, for example, had to learn how to become the uber-role player he became, and it took him a long time to figure that out. Blatche has to learn how to be the "go-to" guy, being double teamed etc, and that takes live-NBA time. You cannot learn this in practice and you cannot learn this playing behind Antawn Jamison who thought way too highly of himself.

Blatche is good enough to take and make all kinds of shots. He now needs the maturity and experience to know what good shots are and how to play winning NBA basketball. As we have all suggested, Blatche is "inefficient" or "putting up empty stats". If Blatche were able to become efficient in his shot selection the sky is the limit, and that's different than other players who just need a number of years to figure out what, if any, role they have to play in the NBA.