I was having a discussion with a negative Common-man type on FB and Klomp liked my reasoning for optimism. He asked that I copy it here. (Disclaimer: this was originally on my phone so the numbers might be slightly off)
I would say the current state makes it hard to be excited about the team. Yet, I think we have made some positive changes that will help with the factors that contributed to our downfall last year. Here they are: Turnovers, offensive eff, d...efense, overall talent.
1.) Turnovers. There are a couple things that will help this. 1.) Rubio as the pg. Rubio will have his own turnover issues at the beginning, but many of our turnovers came because the pgs did not know how to run anything outside of a pnr and in the triangle we spent too much time with bigs and wings running the plays. Put the ball in the pg hands and out of darko and you will limit turnovers. Run a basic offense and not the triangle and the turnovers will be limited.
2.) Off eff. We were 1 in pace, but 23rd (i think) in eff. We played fast, but did not capitalize on it. The reason was that many of our extra possessions came from the other team scoring off our turnovers. We did not fast break often (26th) and instead would jack up a jumper early. The offense should be judged on what type of shots it produced. Last year our most common shot was a deep 2. That is bad basketball. Switching offensive systems, putting the ball in Rubio's hands will help. Another thing that will help is Derrick Williams. Last year Beasley was the only player that could generate his own offense. He needed to jack shots because nobody else could. Ridnour is a nice back-up and can shoot, but he has never been a playmaker. This year we not only have a playmaking guard that will set up the wings, but we also have another player that can generate his own offense in Williams. He is a high post monster. (Also, when Webster got healthy he was able to generate offense off the benc).
Overall talent level. For most of the season we only had 1 player with a positive +/- Simple rating. (Hi Kevin) we had 2 players that flirted with it (Tolly, Ridnour) and one player that came on at the end of the year (Randolph). We finished the year with 2 players with a positive +/- (Love/Randolph) and 2 players with less than -1 (Tolly/Ridnour). Our overall talent level was terrible.
So how does that change? 1.) Rubio and Williams, but there are 3 other factors. 1.) Webster played incredible as he started recovering from back surgery. He said he would not be healed completely until rehab this summer. 2.) Beasley was a positive +/- and playing great before the 6 ankle sprains. 3.) Natural improvement from Wes Johnson as a result of the Rubio effect.
What about the defense? 2 things but they all come back to Rambis. There are 2 scheme things he did that bothered the crap out of people. 1.) He packed the paint and did not contest the swing around 3. This killed us. Looked bad on Beasley/Johnson but that was their assignment. Pack the paint and let the 3 be shot. 2.) His weak side rotation was a zone hybrid. It worked with LA and vets that had high bbiq but it was too complicated for younger teams. There is a reason why zone hybrid systems as not used in the NBA. The other factor is the amount of points other teams scored off our turnovers or early jump shots. When you miss a jumper usually the rebound is out of the paint and that allows a team to get into transition early.
Not to throw Rambis under the bus, but he was that bad. He used an offensive scheme that has failed unless you have one of the greatest SG of all time. He used a defense that does not work with a young team. Switching him, adding Rubio and Williams and we will greatly improve.
ok, now we have something to talk about...
