Real GM Top 100 List #11

[JordansBulls]

My reasoning for Wade is that he's not too far away from LeBron. The past three seasons he's been a comparable player (LeBron is better, obviously), but if we're comparing their play he's just slightly worse, and that's no cheap shot at Wade, considering LeBron's current play the past three seasons has been on a consistent GOAT level. Aside from that, I think the 2006 dominant all-time historic run actually brings the two a little bit closer.

Nominate: D-Wade

Baller, I respect you a lot as a poster but I think you pretty much captured the view of Wade and why he's pretty overrated here. I know that makes me a hater, but whatever.

Your basic arguement is he's "not too far away from LeBron". Why do you asscoiate him so closely with LeBron and LeBron's level? I think it has a lot to do with the fact they played together this year and the Heat were such a topic of conversation. I've seen Wade skyrocket in terms of chatter and ranking here over the months since they joined forces. But did he do or accomplish anything this season that warrants a huge leap in GOAT rankings? Does he somehow deserve to be associated with LeBron's MVP-type years?

In 2008 we had him at 52. And he has logged three more high caliber years and deserves to climb some. I know the philosophy of the rankings has changed some, but if we're talking about a jaw-dropping leap of 30 spots in three years for a guy that didn't win a title or a MVP, we need to take a step back and ask why.

He should be in the top 25 all time rankings now.

[mysticbb]

Well, my guess is different ;) His impact beyond box score is huge, even RAMP show how great impact defensively Robinson had at the end of his career.

If that is the case, we would have seen that in the playoffs too. He became worse against better teams, something we didn't see in a similar fashion.

Regarding his defensive RAPM at the end of his career: Not surprisingly at all. He played that role in limited minutes. We see similar things with Ben Wallace last season or Duncan + Garnett this season. Bigger defensive impact when they are allowed to focus alone on that in limited minutes. I wouldn't put too much stock into it, but of course it shows that old Robinson was still a very valuable player. That is something to consider here, for sure.

[lorak]

Well, my guess is different His impact beyond box score is huge, even RAMP show how great impact defensively Robinson had at the end of his career.

If that is the case, we would have seen that in the playoffs too. He became worse against better teams, something we didn't see in a similar fashion.

Who cares about drop off? What really matters is actual level of play. And looking at his playoffs performances we also have to adjust for quality of opponents AND teammates - that's very important aspect in Robinson's case. His Spurs teammates never were too good (for example fit, chemistry - Rodman! What he did in 1995 is unforgivable), especially on perimeter (poor range, not to much creativity) and when you double teamed DRob you stopped Spurs because his teammates were unable to do much on their own, even when they had plenty of open looks.

And Robinson also in playoffs had his moments, even against Malone, when he stopped him below 50 TS% in 1996 and 1998.

Regarding his defensive RAPM at the end of his career: Not surprisingly at all. He played that role in limited minutes. We see similar things with Ben Wallace last season or Duncan + Garnett this season. Bigger defensive impact when they are allowed to focus alone on that in limited minutes. I wouldn't put too much stock into it, but of course it shows that old Robinson was still a very valuable player. That is something to consider here, for sure.

But this RAMP is consistent with what is seen in Robinson's earlier career. for example in 1992 his impact on D was BIG, from players I listed above only KG once (2009) had bigger.

[Baller 24]

Baller, I respect you a lot as a poster but I think you pretty much captured the view of Wade and why he's pretty overrated here. I know that makes me a hater, but whatever.

Your basic arguement is he's "not too far away from LeBron". Why do you asscoiate him so closely with LeBron and LeBron's level? I think it has a lot to do with the fact they played together this year and the Heat were such a topic of conversation. I've seen Wade skyrocket in terms of chatter and ranking here over the months since they joined forces. But did he do or accomplish anything this season that warrants a huge leap in GOAT rankings? Does he somehow deserve to be associated with LeBron's MVP-type years?

In 2008 we had him at 52. And he has logged three more high caliber years and deserves to climb some. I know the philosophy of the rankings has changed some, but if we're talking about a jaw-dropping leap of 30 spots in three years for a guy that didn't win a title or a MVP, we need to take a step back and ask why.

Okay here's my reasoning. First, the 2008 rankings had a completely different criteria where we measured just the whole body of work. Now with that included, we're also measuring peak-value where he's had three consecutive MVP caliber (tier 1 - top 3) seasons.

Add that to the fact that he had a very dominant playoff & championship run in '06, I think you can very easily argue that he's in the top 30 range, and while we value almost everything in the criteria listed, you can see who the better basketball player is, only at peak form, where I personally feel he's definitely on par with the best.

[therealbig3]

The way I see it, the difference between KG's teams and LeBron's teams and AI's teams is that LeBron and AI's teams, as flawed as they were offensively, actually had some defensive talent that made them very strong on that side of the ball. In fact, weren't AI's Sixers the best defensive team in the league the year they made the Finals?

KG's teams, on the other hand, were terrible on both sides of the ball, so he literally had to do "everything".

And pancakes3, actually, on the first day of the 04 season, when my Nets and T'Wolves played against each other, I remember the commentators saying that KG might be the best player in the game. So this was pretty much before the T'Wolves' great season and KG winning MVP. Also, from 05-07, I remember many people commenting that KG was just as good as Duncan, he was just stuck on bad teams. One person wrote in to a media person, and I believe this was after KG goes off for a 47 point game that the T'Wolves end up losing, that "the debate is actually over between KG and Duncan, we can see now that KG is clearly better, and has been for years", and the only response from the media person was "the 4 rings Duncan's won disagree"...which kind of shows that he didn't have a real response to that. Now, I don't think KG was better than Duncan, I'd take Duncan over KG, but clearly, people weren't forgetting KG, and people were still wowed by him, and people did consider him the best player in the league, who was stuck with a terrible team.

Not that other people's opinions really matter, but that's what I remember, so I disagree with your statement that it's revisionist history to say the things that have been said about him in this thread.

[therealbig3]

Vote: Kevin Garnett
Nomination: Dwyane Wade

[mysticbb]

Who cares about drop off? What really matters is actual level of play.

Correct. His level of play is rather that of the playoffs than that during the regular season.

And looking at his playoffs performances we also have to adjust for quality of opponents AND teammates - that's very important aspect in Robinson's case. His Spurs teammates never were too good (for example fit, chemistry - Rodman! What he did in 1995 is unforgivable), especially on perimeter (poor range, not to much creativity) and when you double teamed DRob you stopped Spurs because his teammates were unable to do much on their own, even when they had plenty of open looks.

I seriously doubt that. He had teammates good enough to win and he didn't. And while you say "when doubled Robinson", he wasn't good enough as a passer to get it to the right teammate. Watch the difference between O'Neal in the 95 finals and Robinson in the 95 WCF. Another problem was that he couldn't work really effective against double teams. We call it euphemistic "he didn't force the issue", but that explains very well the disconnection between his individual stats and the team performance, something I pointed out before and Dean Oliver described in his book. I think that is an important point to consider in order to evaluate Robinson's impact. I think that his defensive impact was good to great, but I somehow doubt that he, despite having gaudy numbers, had a big impact offensively.

And Robinson also in playoffs had his moments, even against Malone, when he stopped him below 50 TS% in 1996 and 1998.

Of course he "had his moments", otherwise I wouldn't even discuss Robinson right now. ;)

But this RAMP is consistent with what is seen in Robinson's earlier career. for example in 1992 his impact on D was BIG, from players I listed above only KG once (2009) had bigger.

Well, you may find it consistent, which is fine, but I could argue that I find his offensive RAPM consistent. Keep in mind that the playoff games are included and he had a 114 ORtg in average for those two seasons in the playoffs, higher than his career average in the playoffs. If we assume he was a +6 or +7 player on defense, which is big, we can also very well assume he was between +3 and +4 on offense, which makes sense. Overall +10. That's my reasoning here.

[Gongxi]

Laimbeer, can I ask what your obsession with Wade is? It seems kinda random. Is this a response to what you see as over-hyping from the 2006 ECF or something? It's been half a decade, dude. Let it go.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Vote: Dr. J

Nomination: Pettit

Came down to West & Dr. J for me. Could have gone either way, but the arguments in this thread swayed me toward Dr. J.

Pettit is a fairly clear choice for the nomiantion. His era dominance is off the charts, and he only came into the league 3 years before Russell did.

[Baller 24]

No love for Moses? He's going kind of under the radar.

[therealbig3]

My reasoning for Wade is that he's not too far away from LeBron. The past three seasons he's been a comparable player (LeBron is better, obviously), but if we're comparing their play he's just slightly worse, and that's no cheap shot at Wade, considering LeBron's current play the past three seasons has been on a consistent GOAT level. Aside from that, I think the 2006 dominant all-time historic run actually brings the two a little bit closer.

Nominate: D-Wade

Baller, I respect you a lot as a poster but I think you pretty much captured the view of Wade and why he's pretty overrated here. I know that makes me a hater, but whatever.

Your basic arguement is he's "not too far away from LeBron". Why do you asscoiate him so closely with LeBron and LeBron's level? I think it has a lot to do with the fact they played together this year and the Heat were such a topic of conversation. I've seen Wade skyrocket in terms of chatter and ranking here over the months since they joined forces. But did he do or accomplish anything this season that warrants a huge leap in GOAT rankings? Does he somehow deserve to be associated with LeBron's MVP-type years?

In 2008 we had him at 52. And he has logged three more high caliber years and deserves to climb some. I know the philosophy of the rankings has changed some, but if we're talking about a jaw-dropping leap of 30 spots in three years for a guy that didn't win a title or a MVP, we need to take a step back and ask why.

You think Wade's 09 doesn't belong anywhere near LeBron's 09 or 10? By what standard? LeBron's is clearly a bit better, but Wade is right there no matter what you look at.

And what Wade did in the playoffs the next year is pretty absurd, his 2010 playoffs vs LeBron's 2009 or 2010 playoffs is a good comparison.

[Laimbeer]

Laimbeer, can I ask what your obsession with Wade is? It seems kinda random. Is this a response to what you see as over-hyping from the 2006 ECF or something? It's been half a decade, dude. Let it go.

It may seem that way because the gap between how he is rated here and my more mainstream view is probably greater than any other player. I really think it has a lot to do with the hype, particularly since LeBron came aboard. He probably gets a boost from both Kobe and LeBron haters here.

As I noted above, nothing has really happened in the last three years to warrant that kind of jump. The 2008 ranking seems reasonable, and some advancement is in order as he logged three more excellent seasons. I just don't think he's a low twenties guy right now.

[Dr Positivity]

Well. In 2008 we were talking about a player with 2 healthy elite seasons (05 and 06). I think it's reasonable that people would be wary about ranking Wade too high off that, he was basically Bill Walton at that point

[Gongxi]

Your view isn't mainstream, though. It's just kind of weirdly way out there. Did you think that even people in the mainstream think Isiah Thomas was a better basketball player than Dwyane Wade?

[colts18]

According to Englemann's RAPM study Garnett is in the top-5 for most impactful player over the last four seasons (Garnett's 13th thru 16th season), and in season 16 was 3rd overall in impact and #1 overall in defensive effect. I mean seriously, Malone is a longevity beast but Garnett is no slouch in that area either.

Do you honestly believe that Garnett had more impact the last 4 years than Pau Gasol? That is absurd. If he was so impactful, why did the Celtics go 40-20 (.667) in his absence? Do you believe KG was more impactful last year than LeBron, Wade, Howard, Kobe, Nash, Durant, and Rose because that is what this RAPM is telling you. Sometimes posters here need to actually look at the leaderboards for stats before they call it a legit stat. If you have KG more impactful than Howard, Rose, and LeBron last year, than something is wrong with your stat. He must have played Bill Russell on steroids defense to have a 15-9 season with that kind of impact.

Let me ask the Garnett and RAPM supporters a question:
Do you believe that Kevin Garnett has had more impact over the last 4 years than Kobe? If you say yes, please stop posting here.

[Laimbeer]

Baller, I respect you a lot as a poster but I think you pretty much captured the view of Wade and why he's pretty overrated here. I know that makes me a hater, but whatever.

Your basic arguement is he's "not too far away from LeBron". Why do you asscoiate him so closely with LeBron and LeBron's level? I think it has a lot to do with the fact they played together this year and the Heat were such a topic of conversation. I've seen Wade skyrocket in terms of chatter and ranking here over the months since they joined forces. But did he do or accomplish anything this season that warrants a huge leap in GOAT rankings? Does he somehow deserve to be associated with LeBron's MVP-type years?

In 2008 we had him at 52. And he has logged three more high caliber years and deserves to climb some. I know the philosophy of the rankings has changed some, but if we're talking about a jaw-dropping leap of 30 spots in three years for a guy that didn't win a title or a MVP, we need to take a step back and ask why.

Okay here's my reasoning. First, the 2008 rankings had a completely different criteria where we measured just the whole body of work. Now with that included, we're also measuring peak-value where he's had three consecutive MVP caliber (tier 1 - top 3) seasons.

Add that to the fact that he had a very dominant playoff & championship run in '06, I think you can very easily argue that he's in the top 30 range, and while we value almost everything in the criteria listed, you can see who the better basketball player is, only at peak form, where I personally feel he's definitely on par with the best.

The last three years he's finished 3rd, 5th, and 7th in MVP voting. And his title run was before the 2008 vote, so that wouldn't account for any of the difference.

[Laimbeer]

Well. In 2008 we were talking about a player with 2 healthy elite seasons (05 and 06). I think it's reasonable that people would be wary about ranking Wade too high off that, he was basically Bill Walton at that point

He had four all-star seasons and MVP votes in three of those, so that's kind of a stretch.

[Laimbeer]

I'm holding off for now. Pettit is a very solid choice for the nomination, and I'm leaning toward him since he has a realistic shot at winning it. Zeke could be considered as well, but I don't think he has the traction right now and I don't want to waste my vote.

I'm feeling West or Doc for the vote, but I haven't seen West really compared to the other guys getting serious consideration. Again, I'd like to see how the vote is shaping up.

[mysticbb]

Do you honestly believe that Garnett had more impact the last 4 years than Pau Gasol? That is absurd. If he was so impactful, why did the Celtics go 40-20 (.667) in his absence? Do you believe KG was more impactful last year than LeBron, Wade, Howard, Kobe, Nash, Durant, and Rose because that is what this RAPM is telling you. Sometimes posters here need to actually look at the leaderboards for stats before they call it a legit stat. If you have KG more impactful than Howard, Rose, and LeBron last year, than something is wrong with your stat. He must have played Bill Russell on steroids defense to have a 15-9 season with that kind of impact.

Do you understand that those numbers are reflecting the impact per possession? Garnett played less minutes, but in the minutes he played he was more impactful than those players per possession. That's what the stats tells you. That doesn't take into account that some of those players clearly played more minutes and thus became more important than Garnett, but when we are talking about one possession, Garnett might be very well more impactful than others. We would need to combine the amount of possessions with the RAPM values for those players to get an impression who had overall more impact.

Do you believe that Kevin Garnett has had more impact over the last 4 years than Kobe? If you say yes, please stop posting here.

Per possession? Yes. Last season also overall. In 2010 Bryant was more impactful per possession and overall, I would also take Bryant in 06 over Garnett, but that's about it. The RAPM values on Engelmann's page are a bit misleading in the sense that they are using the values of the previous years as prior, that makes it hard to evaluate it for the specific season, we need to interpret those results, which might not be that easy for some.

[colts18]

The way I see it, the difference between KG's teams and LeBron's teams and AI's teams is that LeBron and AI's teams, as flawed as they were offensively, actually had some defensive talent that made them very strong on that side of the ball. In fact, weren't AI's Sixers the best defensive team in the league the year they made the Finals?

KG's teams, on the other hand, were terrible on both sides of the ball, so he literally had to do "everything".

This is definitely not true. When LeBron played last year the Cavs had a 104 D rating and finished 7th in the league. Last year they finished 112 D rating and 29th. You can make the case that the offense collapsed because it was made to fit him, but defense is not supposed to collapse like that. Here are the top 10 guys in MP for the 2010 Cavs:

LeBron
Mo
Parker
Varejao
Hickson
West
Big Z
Shaq
Gibson
Moon

The rest of the top 5 returned other than LeBron. West, Z, and Shaq didn't return. LeBron haters want to say that they are a big reason why the team collapsed, but all 3 sucked last year. Big Z and Shaq were so much of defensive liabilities that they barely played in the playoffs for their teams. West doesn't have a great defensive reputation. It all comes down to LeBron being the reason they were a real good defensive team.