RealGM Top 100 List #14

[ElGee]

John Havlicek

While we're here, let me go ahead and make the case against John Havlicek since this is someone who I will not be nominating for a loooooong time. Think about it...Havlicek starts out for many years as a 6th man. Manu Ginobili is basically the only other prominent star I can think of who had a role like that for so long. And he never had a great peak, heck never had a decent peak. Is this even a top-50 peak player?

The Early Years
1964 - In his second year, he's elected all-nba 2nd team as the leading scorer on a super fast, balanced team. In the PS, he averages just 15.7 ppg as his shooting and scoring dip considerably in the and Sam Jones, the clear alpha scorer for Boston at that point, steps up his PS play.

1965 - He shoots only 35% come playoff time. IIRC from the RPOY project these were not early years in which Havlicek had monster games, key performances and clutch hoops. He just wasn't there. And these aren't exactly great years -- probably not even top-10 in that small league.

The First Reggie Miller?

1966-1968 - IMO, this is when we start see Hondo. But we have to ask what we are getting from this player?

A good shooter, who is just constant motion off the ball. A precursor to the Reggie/Ray type of off-ball specialist, curling around screens constantly for mid range shots, and using that movement to backdoor for layups. A good passer off that movement too which has some value, and someone who can score in transition. He's not great at getting his own shot otherwise or creating. In other words, if you don't think Reggie Miller can be the awesome alpha dog and carry a huge scoring load in an offense, there's no reason to think Hondo can. Havlicek, of course, is an excellent perimeter defender, although from what I've seen I'd say he's clearly a level down from someone like Tom Sanders (his own teammate).

Just for some perspective on Havlicek's scoring (and all his numbers at that pace), his per75's from 66-68 are:

17.6 pts/5.0 reb/4.0 ast -3.7% rel TS
18.7 pts/5.0 reb/2.8 ast -5.2% rel TS
17.3 pts/5.6 reb/3.9 ast -1.2% rel TS

This is a player who was simply asked to shoot a lot in a fast system, and he didn't do it particularly well. Now, I have some respect for his overall game as I highlighted above, but I think it's important to put into perspective what kind of a player he was and what he was doing in that system. For comparison, here are Reggie Miller's per 75's from 94-96:

23.0 pts/3.1 reb/3.6 ast +10.8% rel TS
23.8 pts/3.2 reb/3.7 ast +7.7% rel TS
23.7 pts/3.3 reb/3.9 ast +8.3% rel TS

1969 - This is the year I remember he put forth a number of great postseason performances and timely games. As he was wont to do -- this guy was without a day one of the great big game players ever -- he just keeps popping up over and over. Then again, he played in about 175 PS games so he head lots of chances to be remembered.

The Alpha Dog, Kind Of
1970-1974

Russell retires. Jones is gone. The Celtics turnover and Hondo's role expands. In 1971, he makes his first all-nba team at the age of 30. For the next few years, he is a legit top-4 to 8 player in the league. Although, remember it's the weakest, most fractured league in NBA history.

Hondo finally cleans up his efficiency, besting the league average for TS%. His scoring rates hits a career-high in 1971 at 18.9 pts/75 (+1.3% TS). (For perspective, nearly identical to Billy Cunningham's rate and almost 5 points behind Dave Bing's.) He's using that pressure to distribute more on offense as part of the expanded/modify play.

Boston is reloading and in 1972, with 2nd-year man Dave Cowens powering the glass and 3rd-year Jo Jo White, Bos loses to the Knicks in the ECF. Havlicek finishes 4th in MVP voting, and even it were a sentimental/narrative vote, I think this is probably Hondo's best season.

He's there again in 1973, but of course injuries his shoulder in the playoff series vs. New York. Furthermore, there's a strong argument Cowens was clearly a better Celtic at this point -- he wont he MVP, after all. And neither were ever close to the stratum of guys like Kareem, West, Frazier or a healthy Willis Reed, despite the MVP-voting.

In 1974 not quite as good, and that's arguably his last good year by his own, not lofty standards. 1975 and 1976 he's a player of some value, but I think it's marginal, at best.

SUMMARY: An excellent all-around player, with a handful of years at all-nba level and many all-star years. He can contribute with value with his offensive style and is a good defender. Although he's better in many respects, not that different of a player and arc from the Reggie Miller mold. Great clutch/big-game player, but the biggest problem to me is that his peak just simply was never that high in impact. (I have him in the 30s somewhere, not near 24...)

[penbeast0]

Bobby Jones and Dennis Rodman would be the other top 100 caliber player to spend a significant portion of their career as a reserve . . . unless you count Bill Walton who spent 1 of his 2 full seasons (2 of his 3 "healthy" playoffs) as a reserve.

[Laimbeer]

Does anyone have a vote count handy?

[lorak]

VOTE

Oscar Robertson 8
Doctor MJ, therealbig3, drza, DavidStern, RoyceDa59, Baller 24, Fencer reregistered, Gongxi

Jerry West 6
Dr Mufasa, penbeast0, ronnymac2, mysticbb, shawngoat23, An Unbiased Fan

LeBron James 1
ElGee

Moses Malone 4
JordansBulls, FJS, Sedale Threatt, SDChargers#1

Charles Barkley 1
fatal9


NOMINATIONS

Rick Barry 4
therealbig3, Dr Mufasa, ronnymac2, DavidStern

Walt Frazier 3
Doctor MJ, penbeast0, Baller 24

Elgin Baylor 3
mysticbb. Sedale Threatt, Gongxi

Scottie Pippen 2
drza, SDChargers#1

Steve Nash 3
ElGee, RoyceDa59, fatal9

Clyde Drexler 1
JordansBulls

John Stockton 2
FJS. An Unbiased Fan

John Havlicek 2
shawngoat23, Fencer reregistered

[Laimbeer]

Thanks, DS.

Not sure what can be done, but I think some voters got confused and thought Hondo was already nominated.

[pancakes3]

The First Reggie Miller?

1966-1968 - IMO, this is when we start see Hondo. But we have to ask what we are getting from this player?

A good shooter, who is just constant motion off the ball. A precursor to the Reggie/Ray type of off-ball specialist, curling around screens constantly for mid range shots, and using that movement to backdoor for layups. A good passer off that movement too which has some value, and someone who can score in transition. He's not great at getting his own shot otherwise or creating. In other words, if you don't think Reggie Miller can be the awesome alpha dog and carry a huge scoring load in an offense, there's no reason to think Hondo can. Havlicek, of course, is an excellent perimeter defender, although from what I've seen I'd say he's clearly a level down from someone like Tom Sanders (his own teammate).

i'm nowhere near old enough to have seen havlicek play but from what clips i've seen and the numbers, i have a completely different impression of havlicek than you do. to me, sam jones filled the reggie more and havlicek was more of a poor man's larry bird out there. sure he played off-ball but he was by no means relegated to a generic spot up shooter like reggie, or even a generic finisher like... marion. he was often the 3rd leading assist guy (only off the #2 spot by decimals) behind Russell and KC. Once KC retired, Havlicek handled point-forward duties. I would never expect an off-the-curl shooter like Rip Hamilton or Reggie to slide into playing ball-handler in the blink of an eye like that. ontop of being a dish guy, he was also the #3 rebounder on the C's dynasty teams in the regular season; #2 in the post-season - outrebouding guys like "pf" bailey howell and the aforementioned tom sanders.

i'm just saying, off-the-ball cutters don't end up scoring 25+ppg and dish out 5-7 apg. the "reggie" label would probably apply to '62-'65 Havlicek - a target for one of wilt's outlets - but by '66 he was definitely a primary offensive option for the C's, taking as many if not more shots than the aging (sam) jones - and having a bigger hand in the playmaking, defense, and rebounding as well.

[ElGee]

^^^As I wrote, he expanded his game later. But we was in a similar vein of the motion, off-ball scorer. And the "25-7" concept is simply heavily inflated by pace. Hondo was also a good transition player who scored a lot in the open court -- from what I've seen and been told, he loved the running short banker.

In general, I'd be careful to overstate the offensive worth on someone playing on really balanced, really fast, not-so-good offensive teams. As a crude example, Monta Ellis ain't Kobe Bryant.

[NO-KG-AI]

Really though, if you take Reggie Miller and make him an elite defender and strong passer, that is a damn fine player..... That's not an insult at all.

[Dr Positivity]

I always thought Havlicek was a less athletic Kobe in offensive style. Agree he's more of an on ball player and facilitator than Reggie

[Baller 24]

Nomination: John Stockton

Perhaps the greatest facilitator ever. All-time assist & steals leader. Underrated defender, and a PG who actually had an impact on defense. Perhaps the greatest PG ever at setting screens. Amazing bball IQ. Best PG longevity in history by a good margin.

At peak form though, he's nothing special in terms of impact compared to any of the other PGs.

[drza]

Re: Oscar vs Moses

In the last couple of threads, when comparing players across eras, I've found it important to normalize points scored and/or offensive production in some way to make up for the pace and high scoring offenses that dominated in earlier eras. With Oscar and Moses we're looking at two players from older generations, but even they had an era difference between them. So, to get a better idea of their offense, I did the same points/team points normalization that I did before. Once again, I looked at Moses' 9 best scoring years and compared it this time with Oscar's first 9 seasons. While raw points and assists aren't so useful across generations, this normalization gives better ball-park estimates IMO.

Moses top-9 scoring seasons: average 25.5 ppg, which was 23.2% of his team's ppg over that 9 years. Oscar averaged 29.7 ppg, which was 25.3% of his team's ppg over that 9 years. Their TS% were the same (57.2% for Oscar, 57.2% for Moses), but if I'm not mistaken (someone can check me on this) I believe true shooting percentages were lower during Oscar's era than they were during Moses'. If so, then Oscar's relative TS% would be a bit more impressive than Moses' was. Of course, Moses' famous miss-shot-get-offensive-board-score strategy likely artificially lowered his TS% by a bit, considering he was in-fact scoring on many of those possessions. But when you consider position difference, and that centers are supposed to score more efficiently, on the whole I'd say that Oscar probably wins scoring efficiency as well.

Taken as a whole, I think Oscar was CLEARLY the more impactful offensive player than Moses. He was scoring a larger percentage of his team's points, at a more impressive efficiency, and on top of that he was the actual engine behind that offense because he ran the show as well. If we factored assists into the numerical equation, Oscar had seasons where he was directly responsible for nearly half of his team's points. And then, just for kicks, Oscar's offenses were some of the best offenses in NBA history...with him as the complete puppeteer for those offenses...and while Moses was an impressive offensive player, especially with his offensive boards, to me there is no contest on offense. Oscar just made a much bigger difference on that side of the ball.

Then, there's defense and defensive rebounding. As a big man, this is the area where Moses could make up some of the offensive gap. But, though adequate, Moses was not a great enough defender to do so. And while a dominant rebounder, much of that dominance was on offense (where, to me, Oscar still has a clear advantage). Moses was also a great defensive rebounder, but Oscar wasn't too shabby as a rebounder for a guard.

I'm not sure if Moses really was more impactful on defense and the glass than Oscar, but if he was, it wasn't enough to make up for Oscar's advantages on offense. To me, overall, Oscar just was a more valuable and practically productive player than Moses Malone.

[Baller 24]

drza, what's your analysis on Moses v West?

[Dr Positivity]

Ok on Oscar vs West

My reason for picking West is two areas

- The defense in West's favor
- The intangibles in West's favor

If you want a good showing of what's possibly wrong with Oscar's mindset compared to someone like West, read Chapter 9 ("The Triple Double") here and watch as the self fellation builds up as he gets going: http://books.google.ca/books?id=fs6IXDF ... &q&f=false

He also admits he and Jerry Lucas didn't have offensive chemistry, and Lucas had to change his game to fit with Oscar - he wanted to be an on ball player but had to become an off ball garbage man. Later he talks about how the media horded him for being too ball dominant, his reaction more or less to that is he was Oscar Robertson and better than other players who could've had the ball and they didn't know what they were talking about.

Overall I think the difference between Oscar and Wilt in terms of players who considered themselves the team and had trouble really getting it, is overstated. Oscar was a fan of Oscar's game.

[therealbig3]

Vote: Charles Barkley
Nomination: Steve Nash

Was down to Barkley and LeBron for me. You could say LeBron's already accomplished everything Barkley did team-wise/individually, but I've really soured on LeBron's playoff performances, especially the way he has gone out. Playing poorly is one thing, but not caring/quitting is unacceptable. Just can't trust him anymore because of his bizarre play in the last two years.

There's the potential that this will look absolutely ridiculous in the near future (Tragic Johnson style). Obviously, I treat these big narrative-driven arcs a little differently than most...but it's the obvious concern for LeBron. So much so that if he were continue to have it happen I would re-evaluate his entire career...although Im not there yet (Boston was almost nothing to me -- maybe 1 "weird" game -- and the Finals looked like fatigue/mental overthinking/lack of trust in shot). Those are issues, but everyone gets to have issues at some point in their career. If they are never addressed, then I think we say they are symptomatic of something bigger.

For me, it's a bit too early for Lebron, considering the company he has among the current nominations. He didn't have just 1 bad game against Boston 2 years ago, his efficiency in the last 3 games were really bad(46.8% TS), and this was with Cleveland up 2-1 before that. He rolled through the playoff in 09' against two weak opponents, but I think many of us are still baffled why he didn't check Rashard Lewis when that could have won the Cavs that ECF series. His perfomance in the Finals was just...ugh. I mean it's not like Dallas was a great defensive team. And it's not like Wade was sucking and Bron had to do it himself like with SA in 07'. If Lebron plays even up to his normal level, the Heat win in 5 or 6 games.

I guess this goes back to my issues with "peaks". People reference regular season success & stats alot when discussing it, but I'm big on RS & playoff performances combined. I don't see Lebron's peak at a GOAt level one at all, because it mostly comess in the RS. Against 50-win teams(where the pressure is higher), his record and numbers take a big hit. I know you like to reference 104 DRtg teams, but my issue is with Lebron's mindset against quality opponents, not just his efficiency agaisnt good efensive teams(which takes a hit too).

That said, I do see him getting picked within the next 5 choices. Talent-wise he is defintely GOAt level, he just needs to put together some elite RS + PS runs. Would also be nice if we could see an expansion in his skillset. It's amazing that a big 6'9 dude with his talent, can't post up to save his life.

Have you looked at his playoff numbers? They're insane...everyone has a few bad games here and there...but overall, his performance in those playoff runs are GOAT-level.

09 RS-28.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 7.2 apg, .591 TS%
09 PS-35.3 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 7.3 apg, .618 TS%

10 RS-29.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 8.6 apg, .604 TS%
10 PS-29.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 7.6 apg, .607 TS%

He seemed to either maintain his production, or improve it.

[therealbig3]

Ok on Oscar vs West

My reason for picking West is two areas

- The defense in West's favor
- The intangibles in West's favor

If you want a good showing of what's possibly wrong with Oscar's mindset compared to someone like West, read Chapter 9 ("The Triple Double") here and watch as the self fellation builds up as he gets going: http://books.google.ca/books?id=fs6IXDF ... &q&f=false

He also admits he and Jerry Lucas didn't have offensive chemistry, and Lucas had to change his game to fit with Oscar - he wanted to be an on ball player but had to become an off ball garbage man. Later he talks about how the media horded him for being too ball dominant, his reaction more or less to that is he was Oscar Robertson and better than other players who could've had the ball and they didn't know what they were talking about.

Overall I think the difference between Oscar and Wilt in terms of players who considered themselves the team and had trouble really getting it, is overstated. Oscar was a fan of Oscar's game.

Well, what about Russell? He knew he was great, he knew he was the best player on the team, and he wasn't afraid to say it. Imagine going to him and saying, "We need you to change your defense...basically, we don't want you to be the defensive anchor anymore, or at least, we don't want you to have as big of a role on defense anymore"...what would his reaction be? I wouldn't be surprised if he said they were crazy, and I agree that they would be crazy if they wanted him to do that. Why would you change it? Bill Russell as the defensive anchor=elite defense.

Similarly, Oscar as the offensive anchor=elite offense. Why would you try to change that around? With Wilt, you needed to change things around, because his style of play wasn't helping the team as a whole. They were mediocre offensively as a team. But with Oscar, that wasn't the case. Him being ball-dominant led to an elite offense, so what's the problem?

Taking the ball out of Oscar's hands is akin to stripping Russell of his defensive responsibilities, or taking the ball out of Magic's or Jordan's hands, more than it is akin to taking it out of Wilt's hands, imo. It's dumb.

As for Oscar being a fan of his own game...you don't think Jordan admired himself? Russell didn't admire himself? We excuse them because they won, while Oscar was stuck on a mediocre team. But everything suggests that Oscar as an offensive player was similar to Magic, and everybody would think it's crazy to take the ball out of Magic's hands in favor of a lesser player, so similarly, taking the ball out of Oscar's hands in favor of Lucas should be considered crazy, imo.

[ElGee]

Vote: Charles Barkley
Nomination: Steve Nash

Was down to Barkley and LeBron for me. You could say LeBron's already accomplished everything Barkley did team-wise/individually, but I've really soured on LeBron's playoff performances, especially the way he has gone out. Playing poorly is one thing, but not caring/quitting is unacceptable. Just can't trust him anymore because of his bizarre play in the last two years.

There's the potential that this will look absolutely ridiculous in the near future (Tragic Johnson style). Obviously, I treat these big narrative-driven arcs a little differently than most...but it's the obvious concern for LeBron. So much so that if he were continue to have it happen I would re-evaluate his entire career...although Im not there yet (Boston was almost nothing to me -- maybe 1 "weird" game -- and the Finals looked like fatigue/mental overthinking/lack of trust in shot). Those are issues, but everyone gets to have issues at some point in their career. If they are never addressed, then I think we say they are symptomatic of something bigger.

For me, it's a bit too early for Lebron, considering the company he has among the current nominations. He didn't have just 1 bad game against Boston 2 years ago, his efficiency in the last 3 games were really bad(46.8% TS), and this was with Cleveland up 2-1 before that. He rolled through the playoff in 09' against two weak opponents, but I think many of us are still baffled why he didn't check Rashard Lewis when that could have won the Cavs that ECF series. His perfomance in the Finals was just...ugh. I mean it's not like Dallas was a great defensive team. And it's not like Wade was sucking and Bron had to do it himself like with SA in 07'. If Lebron plays even up to his normal level, the Heat win in 5 or 6 games.

Yeah, but you know I don't judge players based on 2 or 3 games. His overall season this year isn't reflected by his inability to raise his otherwise comparable team to a single series win. You are right -- if James were better, Miami wins. But if Dallas misses a single shot in the G3 comeback, Miami wins. So...not a big deal.

Rashard Lewis? That's on the coach, man. I've broken down individual games from that series in the RPOY, and he switches on to Hedo at times and slow him. Seems like a weird criticism, especially for someone who loves Kobe Bryant's defense, a man who has spent the last 5 years guarding cans.

And his 10 Boston series wasn't that bad. His overall series was comparable to Bryant's vs. Boston (better than Bryant's IMO). And 2010 Boston in the PS was historically good on D.

I guess this goes back to my issues with "peaks". People reference regular season success & stats alot when discussing it, but I'm big on RS & playoff performances combined. I don't see Lebron's peak at a GOAt level one at all, because it mostly comess in the RS. Against 50-win teams(where the pressure is higher), his record and numbers take a big hit. I know you like to reference 104 DRtg teams, but my issue is with Lebron's mindset against quality opponents, not just his efficiency agaisnt good efensive teams(which takes a hit too).

That said, I do see him getting picked within the next 5 choices. Talent-wise he is defintely GOAt level, he just needs to put together some elite RS + PS runs. Would also be nice if we could see an expansion in his skillset. It's amazing that a big 6'9 dude with his talent, can't post up to save his life.

I don't see this divide at all in James. I don't even understand what you're basing it on. I have provided detailed analysis of James' postseasons relative to his peers. The 104 number is arbitrary, but the general trend is that before 2008/09 he struggled more against great D's, and now he's been darn near freak show good against them. I even plotted every series by DRtg for LBJ, Kobe and Wade (no cutoffs anywhere) and you can basically see how good James looks.

(Fun fact, LeBron and Kobe have played the same defense in 08, 09, 10 and 11 PS)

[penbeast0]

They did go to Russell and say, "we want you to move out to the high post and lessen your scoring and offensive rebounding while handling the ball more because KC isn't the playmaker Cousy was" and he did it at a cost to his personal stats. Oscar did have some issues that were well known . . . if a player had bad hands, Oscar would throw him what Oscar considered the "right" pass anyway, whether or not he could handle it, then rip him to his face for screwing it up. Or, if a player didn't go to the right place on a called pass, Oscar would throw the pass there anyway to teach him a lesson.

I'd call him Jordan like in terms of personality yes, but it was less of a problem for Jordan because he was primarily a scorer rather than primarily a distributor. That and winning makes all the problems in your game seem much smaller, if Jordan had had a Karl Malone type playoff legacy, the "my supporting cast" type stuff and ripping teammates in the press would be constantly harped on.

[penbeast0]

Hard to believe Rick Barry is this high, didn't like his game or his personality. It's like voting for Iverson because of the one run to the finals . . . Barry got hot and took a good but not great team all the way.

For a comparisom, does anyone realize what the team that had the best record that year was? It was the Denver Nuggets who had comparable talent to the Warriors but with Bobby Jones as best player instead of Barry and good scorers/weak defenders around him (Calvin/Simpson/Robisch/Green) instead of good defenders/average scorers (Ray/Wilkes/CJohnson/Beard).

I'd take Bobby Jones over Rick Barry if I was starting a team. Same position basically (SF/PF), neither great rebounders (Jones was better). Barry gives you superstar passing and scoring (25/36) at below average efficiency, Jones gives you superstar defense (had a couple of 2 steal/2 block seasons even) and extremely efficient complementary scoring (about 15/36). Plus, Jones was the consumate pro who was always willing to sacrifice for his team, Larry Brown called him his favorite player ever and nicknamed him SuperGlue while Barry was a incredibly self-centered player who ignored several coaches and blew off defense frequently.

Both are top 100 players all-time but I'd take Bobby Jones first (though I realize I'm in an extremely small minority here).

[Rupert Murdoch]

Vote: Oscar Robertson
Nomination: Walt Frazier

Surprised KG and Malone both went before Oscar. His offensive efficiency was outstanding for a perimeter player from his era and he averaged 9.5 APG in an era where assists were much harder to come by (players were credited with an assist only when the pass directly led to a basket). He also had a huge impact on the game. Just look at how the Bucks fell apart the year after he left. The Bucks had four consecutive 59+ win seasons with Oscar. Oscar retires and the Bucks win only 38 games in 1975 despite all of their top players except Lucius Allen being healthy for the entire year.

[Fencer reregistered]

'62-'65 Havlicek - a target for one of wilt's outlets -

Wash your fingers with Comet!!!