How to Win a Championship (since ~1990)

Wannabe MEP · Post #1 » by **Wannabe MEP** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:20 am

Seeing as how there's nothing else to talk about, I figured it's time for another ridiculously abstract, painfully in-depth Waste of my Time:

How to Win a Championship (since 1990ish)

First of all, why 1990?

Actually, the NBA is still figuring that out.

(Plus the fact that they just don't make dominant bigs like they used to.)

So, here we go...

Number 1 -- The only Absolute Law for Winning a Championship: A Superb Defensive Frontcourt.
Give me a counterexample. You can't, because there isn't one. This is not just since 1990; this is ever.

Bill Russell won 11 championships in his 13 years in the league because he was probably the greatest defensive frontcourt player ever. I'd take prime Bill Russell over prime Michael Jordan 10 times out of 10, because no one can effect play more that a dominant defensive frontcourt player. (Scoring, and therefore MJ, has more sex appeal, and therefore gets massively more press.)

These types of guys win titles:
Tim Duncan and David Robinson
Wallace and Wallace
KG
prime (mobile) Shaq
Hakeem Olajuwon
Detroit's Bad Boys

And there's a very long list of unreal offensive players who have no titles...because they never played alongside an elite defensive frontcourt. Steve Nash?!? Strike Dirk Nowitzki off that list: What happens when you sandwich him between Tyson Chandler/Brendan Haywood and Shawn Marion? Title. (And might as well beat the **** out of Kobe's Lakers and LeBron/Wade's Heat in the process.)

Number 2 -- The almost-absolute law that everyone always talks about: The (falsely named) Superstar
You need consistent offense from somewhere: you don't actually need a superstar. But you do need really, really good players to create efficient scoring chances. People assume you need a superstar, so if a team starts playing great basketball without one, then the automatic assumption is that the leading scorer/most exciting player to watch is, in fact, a superstar.

(For example, Derrick Rose just won an MVP. One-year RAPM says he was the 19th best player in the league, and not even the best player on his team. He won the award mainly for his offense, but the Bulls were mediocre on offense. He wasn't even in the top 50 for unadjusted offensive rating on the season. The Bulls were good because their defense was absolutely ridiculous.)

The Isaiah Thomas Pistons and especially the Wallace-Wallace Pistons won without a superstar, but they spread the ball around well. KG's Celtics won with four very good offensive players, but it's tough to argue that any of them is really an offensive superstar.

You don't need a superstar, but you do need some go-to way to generate (moderately) efficient offense in the half-court. The easiest way to do that? A superstar who can always create his own shot. But that's certainly not the only way to do that, and it's probably not the best way either. APM/RAPM says pretty consistently that a great facilitator is more valuable than a great scorer. I'm pretty sure a great pick-and-roll with good spacing is better than iso-superstar, even if your iso-man is MJ or Kareem. Dallas had iso-Dirk and pick-and-rolls with good spacing: the latter became their go-to play that defeated Miami.

Number 3 -- The crazy idea that I really want to talk about: The Stretch Big
Robert Horry has 7 titles, more than anyone else since 1990 (and more than anyone that didn't win pretty much all their titles playing alongside Bill Russell). Fluke? Maybe not.

Quality stretch-bigs who happen to play really good defense are extremely rare. And they happen to rake in titles. Robert Horry is the probably the best defensive, 3-point shooting big ever. But then, think about guys like Laimbeer, Rasheed Wallace, Odom, Kukoc. Phil Jackson and Popovich have pretty much always won with a good stretch big (or they went with small-ball a lot).

Anything to this??

DRK · Post #2 » by **DRK** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:54 pm

Love the list Los Soles. it's very true about the freat defensive frontcourt; which is why the SUns have been so close but yet so far. The closest times we ever were to a championship was between 05-07... Why? We had a good defensive center. His name was Kurt Thomas.

This list you have just made makes we really think about what could've been this year.... Keeping Amare, and rolling with Gortat at C. That team/lineup would tick all your boxes there....

Superb Defensive Frontcourt: Gortat, Amare, Robin Lopez, Frye..... Okay not superb, but Gortat's defence would do well to help cover Amare, and Amare's superstar offence would more than compensate on the oterh side of the floor.

Los Soles wrote:Number 2 -- The almost-absolute law that everyone always talks about: The (falsely named) Superstar
You need consistent offense from somewhere: you don't actually need a superstar. But you do need really, really good players to create efficient scoring chances. People assume you need a superstar, so if a team starts playing great basketball without one, then the automatic assumption is that the leading scorer/most exciting player to watch is, in fact, a superstar.

Consistent offence? Look no further than the Phoenix SUns team of last season (and what could have so easily been this season.)

Firstly, the Nash and Amare Pick and Roll. The Nash Amare PnR was the msot deadly combination in the league. They torched defences for over half a decade, and during that time no one really had an answer to it.

Secondly, our bench unit. Dragic, Dudley, Frye, Lou and Pietrus (Post trade) would have been the most deadly bench unit. It would be much like the bench unit of 2010, but instead Barbosa is replace by Pietrus, who would bring ADDED perimeter defence and another mid sized spot up shooter to work with Dudley. This leads me to........

Los Soles wrote:Number 3 -- The crazy idea that I really want to talk about: The Stretch Big

Look no further than Channing Frye; who after tihs season, proved that not only can he shoot threes extremely well, but can also play defence and rebound.

P.S (My Own Option) Number 4: a great defensive wing, or over-sized wing(DMW)

Lets look at the teams that have won championships in the last 20 years.

2011 - Dallas Mavericks def. Miami Heat 4-2
DMW: Shawn Marion. An Elite defender with above average size.
2010 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Boston Celtic 4-3
DMW: Ron Artest: Another Elite perimeter defender.
2009 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Orlando Magic 4-1
DMW: Lamar Odom: 6:10 wing
2008 - Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-2
Paul Pierce: Good/Great Defender
2007 - San Antonio Spurs def. Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0
Bruce Bowen: Multiple All-Defensive Team Member
2006 - Miami Heat def. Dallas Mavericks 4-2
Antoine Walker: Like Lamar Odom plays both PF and SF. (Oversized)
2005 - San Antonio Spurs def. Detroit Pistons 4-3
Bruce Bowen: Multiple All-Defensive Team Member
2004 - Detroit Pistons def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-1
Tayshaun Prince: Great Perimeter Defender and large at 6'9
2003 - San Antonio Spurs def. New Jersey Nets 4-2
Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.
2002 - Los Angeles Lakers def. New Jersey Nets 4-0
Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.
2001 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Philadelphia 76ers 4-1
Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.
2000 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Indiana Pacers 4-2
Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.
1999 - San Antonio Spurs def. New York Knicks 4-1
Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.
1998 - Chicago Bulls def. Utah Jazz 4-2
Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history
1997 - Chicago Bulls def. Utah Jazz 4-2
Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history
1996 - Chicago Bulls def. Seattle SuperSonics 4-2
Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history
1995 - Houston Rockets def. Orlando Magic 4-0
Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.
1994 - Houston Rockets def. New York Knicks 4-3
Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.
1993 - Chicago Bulls def. Phoenix Suns 4-2
Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history
1992 - Chicago Bulls def. Portland Trail Blazers 4-2
Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history
1991 - Chicago Bulls def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-1
Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history
1990 - Detroit Pistons def. Portland Trail Blazers 4-1
***Exception:Probably the greatest defensive team in History

Not sure if the key to a champinship really is an oversized, great defensive wing, or it may just be a coincidence. :wink:

Post #3 » by **Miklo** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:16 pm

Wow, great stuff guys. I'm tied down at work now but I'll be reading this more closely a bit later today.

GrantHill · Post #4 » by **GrantHill** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:49 pm

Do you think Grant Hill could be our 'great defensive wing'? We've got a strech big in Frye and if you want Nash as a superstar. Now just get Josh Smith and you've got yourself a defensive frontcourt.

NashtyNas · Post #5 » by **NashtyNas** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 4:58 pm

GrantHill wrote:Do you think Grant Hill could be our 'great defensive wing'? We've got a strech big in Frye and if you want Nash as a superstar. Now just get Josh Smith and you've got yourself a defensive frontcourt.

Still need a dependable scorer who can put up 20+ ppg a night.

JohnVancouver · Post #6 » by **JohnVancouver** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 5:24 pm

nice work, LS

so - if the Suns play 4-out, 1-in on offense and have a solid defensive frontcourt ( I don't know if elite is within our grasp), we should be pretty tough

this is why i like where we are right now

Nash, Brooks and Warrick are our defensive liabilities. Everyone else is good to exceptional (Hill) - Dowdell seems to me to be at least an acceptable defender, from what little I recall

Gortat, Lawal/Morris and Chills is a very good defensive frontline (yeah, I'm assuming the rooks are who we think they are.) Nash/Duds or Pietrus is as good as we've had since Raja was here

2nd unit of:

Frye, Hill, Rolo/Siler with one of Lawal/Morris is pretty good, and Brooks in the backcourt is also not bad depending on who we can team Brooks with. The ideal is to have it be Duds because we pick up someone like Afflalo and that lets us put Jared back with Frye on our giant-killer bench

From that I would say what we need is to pick up a Sean Williams for the second unit, and a scoring 2 who plays decent defense ... or a purely offensive SG who we can pair with Dowdell or .... Hill at the point when we need stops

JohnVancouver · Post #7 » by **JohnVancouver** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 5:38 pm

eh - got ahead of myself -

the stretch 4 we need, we already have - Frye
Morris is a good 3-ball shooter as well and can improve

Nash, Pietrus, Duds are all good to ridiculous from 3 - am i missing anyone? Hill is as good as Trix
was at the longball.

I f we can add a couple of specific pieces and keep them together long enough for the chemistry to gel, i like this team. Warrick we are stuck with but he can be useful and if he gets the message form Turner about rebounding and defense, he is a valuable guy. he's just not reliable enough to make it as a purely offense player

Brooks may blossom but damn - looking at our makeup, needing a strong defensive scoring point who can slash or shoot threes makes really wish we'd kept Goran longer.
But we don't so who can we get who fits the bill?

YFZblu · Post #8 » by **YFZblu** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 2:45 am

sd1306 wrote:
GrantHill wrote:Do you think Grant Hill could be our 'great defensive wing'? We've got a strech big in Frye and if you want Nash as a superstar. Now just get Josh Smith and you've got yourself a defensive frontcourt.

Still need a dependable scorer who can put up 20+ ppg a night.

I disagree. The only thing that matters on offense is efficiency, regardless of where it comes from.

thamadkant · Post #9 » by **thamadkant** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 4:53 am

Good thread.

I was going to make a similar one "Checklist of a Championship team"

But this will do kudos.

(1) Defensive Front Court - This I believe is critical, because when the game slows down, when SHOTS arent falling, when it becomes scrappy and the other team decides to start attacking the post for easy shots, the Suns HAD no answer.... Stoudemire scored 40, but allowed 45 points on the other team's front court.

- Gortat is a piece, Frye is okay off the bench, but still in need of a dominant shot blocker... and NO, Josh Smith doesnt count, he baits and is undersize as a PF, will get demolished by low post scorers with size, HENCE, my CONTINUOUS preaching of getting (a) Oden, (b) M.Gasol etc.... get them on the Suns and paired with Gortat, Frye etc.... Suns front court becomes ELITE.

(2) Superstar player - The Only way a team WITHOUT a superstar can win a ring is if they have ELITE defense and a STRICTLY disciplined offensive system that finds you that bucket from a role player off the corner down the stretch (good coaching) and an EFFICIENT offense that have 3 players who can be relied on to score double figures game in and out.

Other than that, a team needs a player who can "elevate" an extra level or a gear and score 8-10 points in successive plays to lead the momentum back to his team. James, Bryant, Nowitski, Wade, Durant etc caliber scorers..... Stoudemire WAS on this level... Nash 2-3 seasons ago SHOWED he can dominate points wise when teams force him to be a scorer rather than a passer.

Suns DONT have anyone at the moment who can be unstoppable down the stretch... Nash cant do it anymore, he becomes inefficient and leaves the other players COLD when not involved in scoring.

hence my continuous preaching of getting a YOUNG player from the DRAFT, gamble for that superstar potential in the top 5... basically, see the positives of being a lottery team along the positives of a playoff team.... short term long term outlook. 1 Step back... 4 Steps forward.

(3) Stretch Big - Horry > Frye, especially young Horry. First off, Horry is actually a SF/PF player, the guy had mobility and SMART as they come, Horry can put the ball down and be a slasher (earlier days), but as a Spur he could be played at the SF spot and be open when Duncan attracts the defensive attention. Frye is more closer to Okur than Horry.
When you mention stretched Big, Frye is a decent player at any level, but there are better alternatives, but for now, he is satisfactory.

Wannabe MEP · Post #10 » by **Wannabe MEP** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 1:58 pm

DRK wrote:P.S (My Own Option) Number 4: a great defensive wing, or over-sized wing(DMW)

Good stuff, DRK. Pretty tough to argue with your list. I guess I'd add that that wing you're talking about definitely overlaps significantly with a couple of mine:
--Stretch big. Offensive wing, but defensive 4 or 5. Horry and Odom for sure, but others as well (such as 3s that also play the 4 in small-ball).
--Defensive frontcourt. I mean 3, 4, and 5, although I think the 4 and especially the 5 are generally most important. 5>4>3. For example, Bill Russell can make a defense elite by himself, but an elite 3-4 combo like Pippen/Rodman can make up for a mediocre 5.

DRK wrote:Lets look at the teams that have won championships in the last 20 years.

Thought I'd add a bit to your list:
1) Defensive frontcourt
2) "Superstar" (facilitator/scorer)
3) Stretch big
4) DRK's great defensive wing, or over-sized wing

2011 - Dallas Mavericks def. Miami Heat 4-2
1) Chandler/Haywood, Dirk, Marion
2) Dirk
3) Dirk
4) DMW: Shawn Marion. An Elite defender with above average size.

2010 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Boston Celtic 4-3
1) Odom/Gasol/Bynum, Artest
2) Kobe
3) Odom
4) DMW: Ron Artest: Another Elite perimeter defender.

2009 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Orlando Magic 4-1
1) Odom/Gasol/Bynum, Ariza
2) Kobe
3) Odom
4) DMW: Lamar Odom: 6:10 wing (also, Ariza)

2008 - Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-2
1) KG, Perkins/Davis, Powe, Pierce, Tony Allen
2) Pierce? KG? Rondo? Ray?
3) Long twos from KG and others; small ball with Posey at the four
4) Paul Pierce: Good/Great Defender (Tony Allen)

2007 - San Antonio Spurs def. Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0
1) Tim Duncan, Horry, Oberto, Finley, Bowen
2) Tim/Manu/Tony
3) Horry and Finley played the four
4) Bruce Bowen: Multiple All-Defensive Team Member (also Horry, Finley)

2006 - Miami Heat def. Dallas Mavericks 4-2
1) Shaq/Alonzo, Haslem, Posey
2) Wade, Shaq
3) Antoine Walker, Posey
4) Antoine Walker: Like Lamar Odom plays both PF and SF. (Oversized) Posey?

2005 - San Antonio Spurs def. Detroit Pistons 4-3
1) Duncan, Horry, Nazr, Bowen
2) Tim/Manu/Tony
3) Horry
4) Bruce Bowen: Multiple All-Defensive Team Member (Horry)

2004 - Detroit Pistons def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-1
1) Ben, Rasheed, Prince
2) ?????
3) Rasheed
4) Tayshaun Prince: Great Perimeter Defender and large at 6'9

2003 - San Antonio Spurs def. New Jersey Nets 4-2
1) Tim/Robinson, Stephen Jackson, Bowen
2) Tim/Manu/Tony
3) Stephen Jackson
4) Bruce Bowen, Stephen Jackson

2002 - Los Angeles Lakers def. New Jersey Nets 4-0
1) Shaq, Horry
2) Shaq, Kobe
3) Horry, Devean George
4) Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.

2001 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Philadelphia 76ers 4-1
1) Shaq, Horace Grant, Horry
2) Shaq, Kobe
3) Horry
4) Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.

2000 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Indiana Pacers 4-2
1) Shaq, Horry
2) Shaq, Kobe
3) Horry
4) Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.

1999 - San Antonio Spurs def. New York Knicks 4-1
1) Tim, David Robinson
2) Tim
3) ??? Sean Elliott
4) ??? Sean Elliott

1998 - Chicago Bulls def. Utah Jazz 4-2
1) Pippen, Rodman, Longley
2) MJ, Pippen
3) Kukoc, Pippen
4) Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history

1997 - Chicago Bulls def. Utah Jazz 4-2
1) Pippen, Rodman, Longley
2) MJ, Pippen
3) Kukoc, Pippen
4) Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history

1996 - Chicago Bulls def. Seattle SuperSonics 4-2
1) Pippen, Rodman, Longley
2) MJ, Pippen
3) Kukoc, Pippen
4) Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history

1995 - Houston Rockets def. Orlando Magic 4-0
1) Hakeem, Horry
2) Hakeem, Drexler
3) Horry, Pete Chilcutt
4) Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.

1994 - Houston Rockets def. New York Knicks 4-3
1) Hakeem, Horry, Thorpe
2) Hakeem
3) Horry
4) Robert Horry: Oversized SF, but also great defender.

1993 - Chicago Bulls def. Phoenix Suns 4-2
1) Horace Grant, Pippen
2) MJ, Pippen
3) ??? Pippen
4) Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history

1992 - Chicago Bulls def. Portland Trail Blazers 4-2
1) Horace Grant, Pippen
2) MJ, Pippen
3) ??? Pippen
4) Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history

1991 - Chicago Bulls def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-1
1) Horace Grant, Pippen
2) MJ, Pippen
3) ??? Pippen
4) Scottie Pippen: Probably the best Perimeter defender in NBA history

1990 - Detroit Pistons def. Portland Trail Blazers 4-1
1) Laimbeer, Salley, Rodman, Edwards
2) ??? Isiah Thomas
3) Laimbeer
4) ***Exception:Probably the greatest defensive team in History

JasonDaPsycho · Post #11 » by **JasonDaPsycho** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:14 pm

JasonDaPsycho's Ultimate Guide to Championships
1. Have prime Michael Jordan
2. Have prime Shaq and Kobe
3. Have Tim Duncan
4. Be LA Lakers
5. Have refs on your side

Bulls, Lakers and Spurs have accounted for 15 of the last 20 championships.

Post #12 » by **rsavaj** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 6:03 pm

A+ OP and thread.

NashtyNas · Post #13 » by **NashtyNas** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:35 pm

YFZblu wrote:
sd1306 wrote:
GrantHill wrote:Do you think Grant Hill could be our 'great defensive wing'? We've got a strech big in Frye and if you want Nash as a superstar. Now just get Josh Smith and you've got yourself a defensive frontcourt.

Still need a dependable scorer who can put up 20+ ppg a night.

I disagree. The only thing that matters on offense is efficiency, regardless of where it comes from.

Doesn't change the fact that we lack a true first scoring option. Teams like us of last season and Denver post Melo trade don't win very often. You NEED a first option that can be depended on, especially in the clutch. Nash is our clutch guy, but he isn't really a scorer (although he does take initiative when needed). We need that Amar'e type guy, or a wing scorer like Harden/Mayo.

DRK · Post #14 » by **DRK** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Los Soles wrote:
DRK wrote:P.S (My Own Option) Number 4: a great defensive wing, or over-sized wing(DMW)

Good stuff, DRK. Pretty tough to argue with your list. I guess I'd add that that wing you're talking about definitely overlaps significantly with a couple of mine:
--Stretch big. Offensive wing, but defensive 4 or 5. Horry and Odom for sure, but others as well (such as 3s that also play the 4 in small-ball).
--Defensive frontcourt. I mean 3, 4, and 5, although I think the 4 and especially the 5 are generally most important. 5>4>3. For example, Bill Russell can make a defense elite by himself, but an elite 3-4 combo like Pippen/Rodman can make up for a mediocre 5.

My mistake. I read "Defensive frontcourt" as meaning only the two Big men.

I think the most interesting thing about your findings here Los Soles, is that hardly any of those teams actually had an excellent Point Guard. So, is it VERY possible for a team to win a championship without a great pass-first all star point guard. People always say "the point guard is the most important player on the team," but this thread has turned that fact into a "myth."

Again, during the last 20 years lets have a look at the point guards that have starter for each of their teams.

2011 - Dallas Mavericks def. Miami Heat 4-2
Point Guard: Jason Kidd
2010 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Boston Celtic 4-3
Point Guard: Derek Fisher
2009 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Orlando Magic 4-1
Point Guard: Derek Fisher
2008 - Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-2
Point Guard: Rajan Rondo
2007 - San Antonio Spurs def. Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0
Point Guard: Tony Parker
2006 - Miami Heat def. Dallas Mavericks 4-2
Point Guard: Jason Williams
2005 - San Antonio Spurs def. Detroit Pistons 4-3
Point Guard: Tony Parker
2004 - Detroit Pistons def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-1
Point Guard: Chancey Billups
2003 - San Antonio Spurs def. New Jersey Nets 4-2
Point Guard: Tony Parker
2002 - Los Angeles Lakers def. New Jersey Nets 4-0
Point Guard: Derek Fisher
2001 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Philadelphia 76ers 4-1
Point Guard:: Derek Fisher
2000 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Indiana Pacers 4-2
Point Guard: Fox/Bryant/Fisher
1999 - San Antonio Spurs def. New York Knicks 4-1
Point Guard: Avery Johnson
1998 - Chicago Bulls def. Utah Jazz 4-2
Point Guard: Ron Harper/MJ?
1997 - Chicago Bulls def. Utah Jazz 4-2
Point Guard: Ron Harper/MJ?
1996 - Chicago Bulls def. Seattle SuperSonics 4-2
Point Guard: Ron Harper/MJ?
1995 - Houston Rockets def. Orlando Magic 4-0
Point Guard: Kenny Smith
1994 - Houston Rockets def. New York Knicks 4-3
Point Guard: Kenny Smith
1993 - Chicago Bulls def. Phoenix Suns 4-2
Point Guard: BJ Armstrong
1992 - Chicago Bulls def. Portland Trail Blazers 4-2
Point Guard: John Paxton
1991 - Chicago Bulls def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-1
Point Guard: John Paxton
1990 - Detroit Pistons def. Portland Trail Blazers 4-1
Point Guard: Joe Dumars

I have to say, although there are some good point guards, none of them (with the exception of Dumars and Rondo) were playing at all All Star Level at the time.

My original hypothesis was that a team does not need to have a great pass first point guard to be successful in the quest of winning a championship. This has been proved correct. Yes, players such as Tony Parker played a pivitol role in their team's success, but in my opinion, he is not a true pass first point guard.

Wannabe MEP · Post #15 » by **Wannabe MEP** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 4:14 pm

DRK wrote:I think the most interesting thing about your findings here Los Soles, is that hardly any of those teams actually had an excellent Point Guard. So, is it VERY possible for a team to win a championship without a great pass-first all star point guard.

While that's absolutely true, it comes with caveats.

The other 10??
Kidd/Barea/Terry
Rondo
Parker
Parker
Billups
Parker
Avery Johnson
Kenny Smith
Kenny Smith
isiah Thomas

Those are all very, very good players, and all had crucial roles in their offenses.

Dallas is interesting. Kidd is a great passer, but Dallas was actually better when Barea or Terry were facilitating. We all remember Barea knifing his way into the paint and wreaking havoc on the Lakers. But Dallas' best offense BY FAR was when Terry and Dirk were both in and Terry was functioning as the point guard in pick-and-rolls/pick-and-pops. Four-out, spread the court with shooters, pick-and-roll, make them pick their poison (die by the three or die in the paint). Sound familiar?

It doesn't matter who your "point guard" is...it matters who your "facilitator" is. You ultimately run the offense through your best offensive player. Sometimes that guy is the smallest guy on the court, sometimes it's the biggest guy on the court, but usually it's somebody in between. Law of averages.

I believe that the ideal system is, in fact, a great point guard with an explosive big running the pick-and-roll with the court spread with shooters/slashers. But...

Thegorillasrules · Post #16 » by **Thegorillasrules** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 4:03 pm

I believe that the ideal system is, in fact, a great point guard with an explosive big running the pick-and-roll with the court spread with shooters/slashers

I agree. I think the only reason that we don't see a bunch of teams with all star point guards and all star centers on the list of champions is because those teams haven't really existed in this time frame. If you look at the best centers over the last 20 years, you've got (in no particular order):

Shaquille O'Neal
David Robinson
Hakeem Olajuwon
Dikembe Mutumbo (questionable, not really an offensive force)
Alonzo Mourning
Patrick Ewing
Dwight Howard
(this space saved for whoever I've forgotten)

The fact that we've had about 7 great centers over the past 20 years shows you how unlikely it is for a team to be able to get even half of the "Great Center/Great Point Guard" combo. When you look at that list, you will find that none of these guys ever really played with great point guards.

If you expand the list to include power forwards over that time, you get a few that were teamed with great point guards (at least for a few seasons):

Karl Malone/John Stockton
Charles Barkley/Kevin Johnson
Shawn Kemp/Gary Payton

None of these teams managed to win a championship, but only each other, the Houston Rockets, and of course M.J.'s Bulls kept them from it. Add Ewing's Knicks to that list as well. I still can't believe that the Jazz had an all-time great PG and PF together for a decade and they couldn't win a championship or get there more than twice.

I guess you could add Tim Duncan/Tony Parker to the list, and they've managed to win a few.

Now that I've said all of that, I might have to change my opinion a little bit. I would say if you have a truly great center that can operate in the post (Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem... Duncan maybe), you don't really need a great point guard. It's just important to surround these guys with some well-rounded players who can hit open jumpers when the double-team comes and play some good defense. If you do add a great PG (Kareem with Magic for example) you're pretty much guaranteed multiple championships. A great center is still the most valuable piece a team can have, it's just that the supply is so limited. There are a lot of centers masquerading as all stars simply because we don't always have 4 or more all star quality centers in the league.

Wannabe MEP · Post #17 » by **Wannabe MEP** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 4:44 pm

GrantHill wrote:Do you think Grant Hill could be our 'great defensive wing'?

Hill, Dudley, Pietrus: we're in pretty good shape there. PF is the problem.

GrantHill wrote:We've got a strech big in Frye and if you want Nash as a superstar. Now just get Josh Smith and you've got yourself a defensive frontcourt.

Stretch big in Markieff too?? If we could magically pick up someone like Josh Smith or Thaddeus Young without giving up key players, I'd pencil us in as favorites next year. Sadly, not happening.

sd1306 wrote:Still need a dependable scorer who can put up 20+ ppg a night.

No, we don't. We run an efficient, flexible offense and we take what the defense gives us. The greatest offensive team in history keeps doing what it has been doing for about a decade: spread the court with shooters/slashers and pick-and-roll.

1) If the roll man gets a seam, Nash finds him and he dunks it.
2) If they drop off Nash, Nash continues his career as the best shooter in history.
3) If help drops down from the perimeter, open three (or slash).

So depending on the defense: some games, Gortat will put up 25+. Or Nash will put up 25+. Or Dudley, Frye, Hill, etc will put up 25+.

While Nash was on the court last year, Phoenix scored 113.94 points per 100 possessions. Good enough for 6th individual in the league, and better than: Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, Dwight Howard . . .

(while he spent a lot of his minutes playing surrounded by a constantly rotating crew that included Vince Carter, a hobbled Robin Lopez, and EARL BARRON)

The problem is, as it's always been the defense. (And last year it was also the 2nd unit's offense, which suffered greatly when Frye moved to the starting lineup. Having a 2nd stretch-big in Markieff will help tremendously.)

Wannabe MEP · Post #18 » by **Wannabe MEP** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 5:37 pm

Some great thoughts, gorillasrules.

Thegorillasrules wrote:Now that I've said all of that, I might have to change my opinion a little bit. I would say if you have a truly great center that can operate in the post (Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem... Duncan maybe), you don't really need a great point guard. It's just important to surround these guys with some well-rounded players who can hit open jumpers when the double-team comes and play some good defense. If you do add a great PG (Kareem with Magic for example) you're pretty much guaranteed multiple championships. A great center is still the most valuable piece a team can have, it's just that the supply is so limited. There are a lot of centers masquerading as all stars simply because we don't always have 4 or more all star quality centers in the league.

That makes sense; that's what Orlando has tried to do with Howard. It's just that Howard has no moves. He's the best center the league has now, and his multi-year offensive RAPM is only +1.9. Contrast with Nash (+8.2), Wade (+6.4), LeBron (+5.3), Ginobili (+5.3), Dirk (+5.9). They just don't make centers like they used to:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mArHU1ewSog[/youtube]
It's unbelievable how much better the old man looks doing those moves in that video.

Thegorillasrules wrote:If you expand the list to include power forwards over that time, you get a few that were teamed with great point guards (at least for a few seasons):

Karl Malone/John Stockton
Charles Barkley/Kevin Johnson
Shawn Kemp/Gary Payton

None of these teams managed to win a championship, but only each other, the Houston Rockets, and of course M.J.'s Bulls kept them from it. Add Ewing's Knicks to that list as well. I still can't believe that the Jazz had an all-time great PG and PF together for a decade and they couldn't win a championship or get there more than twice.

A pick-and-roll is most effective with a stretch big to complement the roll-man, because you've got to open up space in the paint for the pick-and-roll to operate. Did any of those pg/pf combos play with a good, defensive stretch-big?? I doubt it. If your PF is the roll man, then your center is the stretch-big...not too many great defensive stretch centers (Laimbeer...anyone else? Frye is good but not great defensively) So you need several things:

1) Good pg
2) Good roll man
3) Good stretch-big
4) ROLL MAN AND STRETCH-BIG HAVE TO BE SOLID DEFENDERS!!!

Nash + Amare + Frye was silly absurd ridiculous on offense. Top five unadjusted offensive rating that year for the NBA looked like this:
1) Frye 118.44
2) Nash 117.52
3) JRich 116.95
4) Stat 116.12
5) Dudley 115.68

Those are video game numbers. But Amare + Frye just doesn't cut it in the defensive frontcourt. And then, Orlando had everything but a good enough pg when they went to the finals.

thamadkant · Post #19 » by **thamadkant** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:04 pm

DRK wrote:Good stuff, DRK. Pretty tough to argue with your list. I guess I'd add that that wing you're talking about definitely overlaps significantly with a couple of mine:
--Stretch big. Offensive wing, but defensive 4 or 5. Horry and Odom for sure, but others as well (such as 3s that also play the 4 in small-ball).
--Defensive frontcourt. I mean 3, 4, and 5, although I think the 4 and especially the 5 are generally most important. 5>4>3. For example, Bill Russell can make a defense elite by himself, but an elite 3-4 combo like Pippen/Rodman can make up for a mediocre 5.

My mistake. I read "Defensive frontcourt" as meaning only the two Big men.

I think the most interesting thing about your findings here Los Soles, is that hardly any of those teams actually had an excellent Point Guard. So, is it VERY possible for a team to win a championship without a great pass-first all star point guard. People always say "the point guard is the most important player on the team," but this thread has turned that fact into a "myth."

Again, during the last 20 years lets have a look at the point guards that have starter for each of their teams.

2011 - Dallas Mavericks def. Miami Heat 4-2
Point Guard: Jason Kidd
2010 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Boston Celtic 4-3
Point Guard: Derek Fisher
2009 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Orlando Magic 4-1
Point Guard: Derek Fisher
2008 - Boston Celtics def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-2
Point Guard: Rajan Rondo
2007 - San Antonio Spurs def. Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0
Point Guard: Tony Parker
2006 - Miami Heat def. Dallas Mavericks 4-2
Point Guard: Jason Williams
2005 - San Antonio Spurs def. Detroit Pistons 4-3
Point Guard: Tony Parker
2004 - Detroit Pistons def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-1
Point Guard: Chancey Billups
2003 - San Antonio Spurs def. New Jersey Nets 4-2
Point Guard: Tony Parker
2002 - Los Angeles Lakers def. New Jersey Nets 4-0
Point Guard: Derek Fisher
2001 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Philadelphia 76ers 4-1
Point Guard:: Derek Fisher
2000 - Los Angeles Lakers def. Indiana Pacers 4-2
Point Guard: Fox/Bryant/Fisher
1999 - San Antonio Spurs def. New York Knicks 4-1
Point Guard: Avery Johnson
1998 - Chicago Bulls def. Utah Jazz 4-2
Point Guard: Ron Harper/MJ?
1997 - Chicago Bulls def. Utah Jazz 4-2
Point Guard: Ron Harper/MJ?
1996 - Chicago Bulls def. Seattle SuperSonics 4-2
Point Guard: Ron Harper/MJ?
1995 - Houston Rockets def. Orlando Magic 4-0
Point Guard: Kenny Smith
1994 - Houston Rockets def. New York Knicks 4-3
Point Guard: Kenny Smith
1993 - Chicago Bulls def. Phoenix Suns 4-2
Point Guard: BJ Armstrong
1992 - Chicago Bulls def. Portland Trail Blazers 4-2
Point Guard: John Paxton
1991 - Chicago Bulls def. Los Angeles Lakers 4-1
Point Guard: John Paxton
1990 - Detroit Pistons def. Portland Trail Blazers 4-1
Point Guard: Joe Dumars

I have to say, although there are some good point guards, none of them (with the exception of Dumars and Rondo) were playing at all All Star Level at the time.

My original hypothesis was that a team does not need to have a great pass first point guard to be successful in the quest of winning a championship. This has been proved correct. Yes, players such as Tony Parker played a pivitol role in their team's success, but in my opinion, he is not a true pass first point guard.

I agree with this, ESPN also showed a few times I believe the chart of having a "superstar" or "all-star" point guard who has won a championship ring... and no superstar PG since Isaiah Thomas lead his team to the championship. Tony Parker was an all-star but EVERYONE knew it was Duncan's team and Parker was more of a semi-star type of player, Billups also, same level as Parker when they won in 2004, but very efficient indeed.

Hence, again, I believe the Suns can sacrifice a "star" PG for a "star" Scorer/BIG anyday, or atleast a chance to obtain those players.

JohnVancouver · Post #20 » by **JohnVancouver** » Mon Aug 1, 2011 5:47 pm

let\s just get hakeem .....