RealGM Top 100 List #16

[mysticbb]

Moses actually won, you know, a championship. And he generally accomplished a lot more than LeBron has to this point. So I'm going with Moses for the vote.

No, the 76ers won the championship, a team which was already a +5.7 SRS team without Moses, a team which went to the FINALS without Moses Malone, a team which had Julius Erving on their roster making a much bigger difference to that team than Moses Malone. Do you think that the Heat without James were a 57 wins team? Do you think that the Heat without James could have went to the finals?

It is a team game and it should be about how much a player can lift a team. Make an argument why Moses Malone was the better player than James.

[lorak]

Vote: Barkley

Was Barkley better than Robinson?

[Laimbeer]

Can I throw out a name for the sense of the crowd - Bob Cousy.

His career span is only about four years earlier than Pettit's, but it looks like he's headed to a far lower ranking. Not sure if it's an oversight or there are other reasons to distinguish him so much from Pettit.

[JordansBulls]

Vote: Moses Malone
Nominate: Isiah Thomas (if Nash is being nominated I don't see why Isiah shouldn't be)

[Laimbeer]

Vote: Moses Malone
Nominate: Isiah Thomas (if Nash is being nominated I don't see why Isiah shouldn't be)

Moses is well overdue here. I love LeBron and think he takes some unfair raps, and he'll almost certainly pass Moses in time. But this is Mo in 2011.

We're firmly in Isiah territory. The guys that led teams to multiple titles ought to be in before we start going with second bananas and a lot of guys that never won anything and didn't have truly outstanding individual careers. Let's see if he can get some traction. Hondo, Baylor, and Cousy need to get in soon as well.

Vote: Moses Malone
Nominate: Isiah Thomas

[penbeast0]

As you can see, statistically they are pretty close except for one glaring area . . . shooting efficiency where Ewing was not outstanding for a center but Gilmore is the second most efficient scorer in NBA history (the MOST efficient if you take out the ABA numbers, his efficiency went up after his knee injury as he played closer to the basket).

BUT Ewing was also way less turnover prone than Gilmore, which compensates for a bit for the difference in scoring efficiency. Not making a shot gives still the opportunity to rebound the ball and keep the possessions, while turning the ball over is a lost possession. There is also the evidence that Ewing anchored one of the best defensive squads in the history of the NBA. There is a good argument for him being a great defensive anchor, better than Gilmore in that aspect.

Career assist/turnovers

Ewing 1.9/3.0
Gilmore 2.3/3.1

That dog won't hunt

And Gilmore joined two teams, both of which went from poor to mediocre defensive teams to elite just for his presence.

Kentucky 1971 9th/11 in ABA, Kentucky 1972 2nd/11
Chicago 1976 9th/18 in NBA, Chicago 1977 2nd/22 in NBA

Gilmore 4x1st team All-Defense (ABA), 1x2nd team All-Defense (NBA)
-- not even including the above referenced 76 season
Ewing 3x2nd team All-Defense (NBA)

Gilmore made a huge difference in team defense, both were terrific. Artis did a better job keeping opponents from getting post position with his strength, Ewing did a better job chasing mobile bigs outside with his quickness, they were very similar in terms of shot blocking (both 2.4/game for career).

[pancakes3]

Make an argument why Moses Malone was the better player than James.

well, as convincing as a comparison for 2 different positions in 2 different eras can get:

- he's got 1 more MVP
- he's way ahead in longevity (16 consecutive double-double seasons!?)
- got more rebounding titles than James has scoring titles
- same career TS% even though LBJ is still in his prime and shoots 3's (better by .003) because as a 6'10 C, Moses drew more fouls and shot better from the line than LBJ.
- Finals MVP (IT'S THE ONLY ARGUMENT I NEED!)
- phenomenal playoff peak: in '83 he dropped 26/16/1.5 on a TS% of 58.7, lead the playoffs in FTs and Rebounds, and swept Tragic and Kareem without really breaking a sweat (yeah yeah i know. his team was sick... but you can't ignore those numbers. plus there were a lot of stacked teams then - showtime and the celtics specifically).

you can choose to say "i'll ignore the small sample of playoff games where LBJ didn't perform as well and look at his multiple 80+ game regular season body of work" but by that logic, DRob should be a lot closer to hakeem and shaq, and Wilt would be a lot closer to Russell.

[penbeast0]

Can I throw out a name for the sense of the crowd - Bob Cousy.

His career span is only about four years earlier than Pettit's, but it looks like he's headed to a far lower ranking. Not sure if it's an oversight or there are other reasons to distinguish him so much from Pettit.

Cousy was an explosive scorer, Pettit a far better one
Pettit was also much more efficient (despite being slammed for that), particularly when you include his sick foul draw

Cousy's championships were almost universally in spite of his lousy playoff shooting which was truly awful in the Russell years (.350 range); Pettit, while also signifcantly less efficient overall, stepped up big when it most mattered with one of the legendary game 7 performances ever singlehandedly carrying his team to a title over the Russell/Celtic dynasty -- something only Wilt on a more stacked team than Pettit's was ever able to match.

Cousy was the GOAT passer of the 50s, Pettit the GOAT rebounder, though Cousy's playmaking is even more dominant relative to era.

Cousy was a weak defender, slammed by Auerbach before the Celtics got him. Pettit was an above average defender, not great but hardworking on that end and with good length and athleticism.

Pettit was one of the most respected people in the NBA, the first on his team to help black players like Lenny Wilkens deal with the racism of St. Louis and so classy that, according to Tommy Heinsohn, even the refs called him "Mr. Pettit." Cousy had some issues that came to light later when he coached, purportedly dumping Oscar Robertson because he didn't like his game or the fact that Oscar was considered by most the GOAT PG ever and having trouble with other players as well. (Minor issue -- Cousy's issues never affected his playing that I've heard though Pettit does get a small positive bonus)

Although Cousy is the best known player from the 50s, I'm not even sure he was the second best for the top 100 -- Paul Arizin and Neil Johnston come to mind although they weren't revolutionary the way Cousy was.

So, Pettit was the better player in just about every respect.

[penbeast0]

Good post pancakes!

[Sedale Threatt]

...a team which had Julius Erving on their roster making a much bigger difference to that team than Moses Malone.

So not only did Doc make a bigger impact than Moses, who was pretty clearly the best player in the league that season, but MUCH bigger?

I know there's probably some plus/minus formula you've concocted floating around in one of the other threads. But there's just a wealth of data that would seemingly indicate otherwise --

A. Led the league in PER, win shares, WS/48 and rebounding.
B. Led team in scoring while getting to the line almost twice as many times as Doc.
C. Played probably the best defense of his career.
D. Turned in one of the more dominant individual playoff runs in history.
E. Pushed a team known for stalling in the Finals over the top.
F. In the process, dismantled one of the best centers in history.

Heck, depending on which advanced measures you want to put your stock in, Doc wasn't even their second-best player in the playoffs. Maurice Cheeks was. With Bobby Jones not being very far behind for third.

As for Moses versus LeBron...it's a tough sell. I'm the first to admit I might be clinging to some older prejudices, and unwilling to usher in the new at the expense of the old.

As I've said before, these last two years have really left a sour taste in my mouth. Rather, the last two playoffs, which I obviously weight more heavily than others.

Two more championship opportunity down the tubes, thanks in no small part to him going into the tank. Depending on how harshly you want to measure, this year marked the fifth time his production took a decent-to-substantial dive in the postseason, which was one of your criticisms of Moses. While I don't personally hold the 07 Finals against him -- too young, fantastic defense, no help -- these last two years put a serious dent in his resume as I see it.

Now, would the Heat have gotten to the Finals without LeBron? Of course not. But they also clearly should have, and would have, won it if he'd even been average.

So, vote Moses, nominate Patrick Ewing.

[Baller 24]

Pippen's tough. Honestly even in my book, his best season (1994) still doesn't rank in the top 5 for me relative to that season. You've got Olajuwon, Ewing, Robinson, O'Neal, & Malone who all played greater than him, that's just my personal opinion.

Anyways, John Stockton getting nominations? In what planet was he a better player than Isiah, Payton, Nash, & Kidd if we're comparing point-guards? Peak always trumps everything, ask yourself would you rather have a player playing at a great level for many many years OR would you rather have a player that plays at a great level for a good amount of years, but out of those years has close to 2-3 superstar level seasons that gives your team the ultimate chance of winning? It's like saying would you rather have someone playing at (1-10 scale) 7, 7, 7, 8, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 7, 7, 7 OR 7, 8, 7, 8, 8, 9 , 10, 10 , 7, 7 ? I honestly don't have him even in the top 40.

I pulled up some old posts in the last thread about Ewing, he's one of the best defensive players ever, the Knicks are the best defensive team in the 90s, it's just unfortunate they had to face one of the best offenses forces ever. Though remember, they limited that offensive force (Jordan), in ways that no other team in post-season history did during his prime/peak championship run.

[cpower]

VOTE: Moses Malone

Nominate: John Havlicek

[mysticbb]

Career assist/turnovers

Ewing 1.9/3.0
Gilmore 2.3/3.1

Ewing had a 12.5 turnover rate, Gilmore 14.5. I'm not quite sure but that looks rather like Ewing was less turnover prone than Gilmore.

And Gilmore joined two teams, both of which went from poor to mediocre defensive teams to elite just for his presence.

Kentucky 1971 9th/11 in ABA, Kentucky 1972 2nd/11
Chicago 1976 9th/18 in NBA, Chicago 1977 2nd/22 in NBA

Good argument, but we saw a lot more with Ewing and the Knicks in terms of defense.

Gilmore made a huge difference in team defense, both were terrific. Artis did a better job keeping opponents from getting post position with his strength, Ewing did a better job chasing mobile bigs outside with his quickness, they were very similar in terms of shot blocking (both 2.4/game for career).

Well, I certainly agree that Gilmore has a good case over Ewing, I just wanted to point out the arguments for Ewing.

[mysticbb]

- he's got 1 more MVP
- he's way ahead in longevity (16 consecutive double-double seasons!?)

Moses Malone didn't even make a huge difference to the team performance at his peak, why should I want him in other seasons when he constantly was out in the first round and not the cornerstone of a franchise being able to win.
I count 8 seasons in which Malone was healthy enough and good enough to be the best player on a championship team, that is exactly 1 season more than James has. But Malone had a lot less impact, if we don't dismiss all the evidence we have. He made a small improvement to the Rockets when he joined. He didn't improve a below average team much (granted, he had that playoff run to the finals), he didn't make a big difference to the 76ers at his absolute peak. The 76ers without him were already a 5.7 SRS team, with him that improved to 8.15 SRS with a healthy Erving playing in 1983. When Erving missed 10 games (2 games in January and 8 games in March with a wrist injury) the 76ers went down to a 3.06 SRS team. The 76ers without a absolute peak Malone were better than the 76ers with absolute peak Malone and without past peak Erving. What should I believe when peak Malone doesn't even come close a difference LeBron James made?

I think people are putting way too much stock into the boxscore numbers and way too easily they are impressed with big offensive rebounding numbers. Since the offensive rebounding numbers are available the correlation coefficient between scoring margin and ORB% is 0.06, in the last 10 years it is even -0.1. There is no clear indication that offensive rebounding helps a team to win more games. In comparison the coefficient for DRB% is 0.3. Offensive rebounding might be the single most overrated boxscore stat, even BLK% and STL show a much higher correlation to scoring margin (0.2 and 0.17 respectively). That is based on the data of 983 single team seasons from 1973/74 to 2010/11.

If you want to know how much someone helps a team win with his rebounding look at the DRB% of that player. Moses Malone's defensive rebounding is basically on par with Nowitzki's, his BLK% and STL% too. The defensive impact of Moses Malone was not big, for sure not bigger than Nowitzki's, especially when we take into account the negative effect of turnovers for the team defense. It is very likely that Moses Malone's impact on the game was lowered due to the high TO-R (turnover rate has a -0.3 correlation coefficient to scoring margin, a much bigger impact factor than offensive rebounding).

And that all is reflected in the team results with and without Moses Malone. He didn't make such a big difference, for sure not a big difference as people seem to think.

8 seasons vs. 7 seasons while James had a bigger impact, I don't see the longevity argument for Moses Malone. Nobody would pick Kevin Willis over Dwight Howard based on longevity either.

you can choose to say "i'll ignore the small sample of playoff games where LBJ didn't perform as well and look at his multiple 80+ game regular season body of work" but by that logic, DRob should be a lot closer to hakeem and shaq, and Wilt would be a lot closer to Russell.

Nobody is ignoring playoff games, but that comparison wins James easily. Don't be fooled by some playoff games you might not be impressed about, but James had much more dominant performances than Moses Malone. And Malone played in 100 playoff games, James in 92.

No, I don't agree that Moses Malone was overall a player which gives me more than LeBron James. He has more personal accomplishments with the MVP awards and Finals MVP, but those awards were also really circumstantial.

[lorak]

And Gilmore joined two teams, both of which went from poor to mediocre defensive teams to elite just for his presence.

Kentucky 1971 9th/11 in ABA, Kentucky 1972 2nd/11

In 1971 Kentucky was 6th in opponents FG%, 1st in 1972. So Gilmore definitely improved their defense, but we have to keep in mind that in ABA he had no competition among big men. In fact second best ABA's big man played with him in Kentucky. So I think in ABA his impact was bigger than his true value due to the lack of competition among big men - and what later happened in the NBA confirms that, because his impact on defense wasn't so good.

BTW, Colnels had THREE different coaches during '71 seasons, so it definitely affected their result and quality of defense (IMO teamwork is more important on D than on O, in that sense that defense must be more organized).

Chicago 1976 9th/18 in NBA, Chicago 1977 2nd/22 in NBA

First of all Bulls in 1976 had -0.3 drtg. With Gilmore in 1977 they had -2.1. So yes, improvement, but nowhere near Ewing's value on defense.

And what's more important Gilmore NEVER EVER AGAIN anchored defense better than league average! Never.
(and when he joined Spurs defense with him was worse: +0.7 in 1982 and +1.9 in 1983)

And back to the Bulls in 1977 - Chicago generally through first half of 70s had very good defense, for example -3.3 in 1975 or -4.1 in 1974. But 1976 was their down year. They lost Sloan and Thurmond - That's two of three players who played the most minutes in 1975. And they also lost another starter - Chet Walker. So 1976 was their down, transition year, and that's why they were so bad defensively that season. So small improvement with Gilmore isn't impressive at all.

[lorak]

Vote: Dirk
I think people fell to much in love with Moses box score numbers. He wasn't that good as his ppg and rpg suggest (the same is with Barkley).

Nomination: Ewing

[Baller 24]

Vote: Nowitzki

Nominate: Ewing

[An Unbiased Fan]

Vote: Moses

Nomination: Stockton

Tough choice here. If I pick the best starting 5 out of the group, I get....

G - Frazier
G - Wade
F - Lebron
F - Dirk/Barkley/Pettit(can't pick between them, lol)
C - Moses

When I look at era dominance & longevitity, both Walt & Wade get scratched off the list.

Lebron
Dirk
Barkley
Pettit
Moses

Pettit was great in his era, but I don't think his dominance translates as well to other eras. So I'm dropping him out.

Lebron
Dirk
Barkley
Moses

Of this last group, when I look at both regular season & playoff success, I have to drop out Lebron & Barkley. Lebron has come up short way too much, and in bizarre fashion over the past couple. His playoff stats also take a big dip against quality opponents. Barkley was the most dominant offensive PF ever, but his lack of 2-way, and mediocre playoff success leaves him short.

So that leaves Dirk & Moses. And when at look at Mose's overall career, I think he was a tad more dominant at his peak. 3 MVPs, and a title run that was just as good as Dirk's, puts him at #16 for me.

[JordansBulls]

Why Stockton or Nash over Isiah?

[Baller 24]

Have no idea, he gets ridiculous overrated by people who haven't seen him play.