Thanks to Cot's spreadsheet here's where the Jays are currently sitting for 2012:
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C Arencibia 0.5
C
1B Lind 5.15
2B
SS Escobar 5.0
MI
3B Lawrie 0.5
CI EE 3.5(T)
LF Snider 0.5/arb1(super2?)
CF Rasmus arb1
RF Bautista 14.0
OF Davis 2.75
DH Thames 0.5
SP Romero 5.25
SP Morrow arb3
SP Cecil arb1
SP Drabek 0.5
SP
CP
SU
RRP Janssen arb3
RRP Rauch 3.75(T)
RRP Villanueva arb3
LRP
LRP Mills/Perez 0.5
Non-arby eligible guys just get 0.5 because it's rounding up what they get to be safe.That's 42.4 million and doesn't account for Teahen. It's my personal opinion that unless EE gets dealt by the deadline, Teahen gets bought out or moved with a huge chunk going with him and that cost gets rolled into 2011 payroll, but we can keep him on the book for 5.5 here anyway, although if that happens it's probably only an extra 2.5 million over the 42.4 because they won't pick up EE's option (it's a 500k buyout). Regardless, all in that's a worst case scenario of:
47.9 million
So that leaves a bunch of arby guys and I took a brief perusal of this site
to randomly create numbers for the 6 arby guys on the above list:
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Snider 2.0
Rasmus 3.0
Morrow 5.5
Cecil 2.0
Janssen 3.5
Villanueva 4.0So many guys avoid arbitration or there are long-term deals made instead so these are basically just (Please Use More Appropriate Word) guesses. I have zero way of knowing if I'm in the realm of possibility, but I looked for 2 comparables and tried to find something close. Anyway, that's another 20 million (hoping I'm too high and too low all over the place to the point it balances the total out) and takes our grand total up to:
67.9 million
Spots still open include 2B, an SP, a CP, a SU, and some bench action (back-up C, MI, LRP). The last three in brackets will be filled fairly cheap (something internal or vet min types, but let's say 4.5 to know it's safe). With 4 important slots to fill (and no talk of upgrading the lineup beyond Hill either) we've got a total of:
72.4 million
So 100 million payroll (which to me should be the low end if Rogers' talk about the money being there is true) still leaves 27.6 million to fill a starting pitcher, second base, and two relief spots (preferably the premium spots). To do it the way we might prefer that'd cost closer to 35-40 million, but 28 ain't nothing to sneeze at.
Now finding targets worth the money, especially in FA, is always harder than one would hope (eg. Great, I have 7-8 mil for a 2B and the only good starter available is asking for 12 and he's nowhere near worth it, but someone else will pay it so what should a GM do then?). I'm more inclined to spend some, or even a lot, of our recently built up minor league depth to acquire guys like Jimenez (not personally advocating Jimenez but he's the easy example 'cause he's being discussed a lot and has a very manageable deal) with reasonable contracts than overpay in FA. It probably amounts to the same thing since you have to make up the difference in IFA or overslot and that may not be possible anymore, but free agency scares the bejesus out of me, especially starting pitching.
Thoughts? Are my numbers wrong? Where would you spend the money? I did this 'cause I can see we're going to be talking about what to do in the near future a lot and it would be best to have some easy reference to payroll numbers.
