Jays A Leader To Acquire Heath Bell

[Wo1verine]

http://twitter.com/#!/jimbowdenespnxm

Interesting.. Does AA want him for next year? Or is he a chip to get someone else (Aka Jackson) ?

[sonn]

I just hope its for the Type A compensation and not because AA wants to resign him.

[Schad]

I just hope its for the Type A compensation and not because AA wants to resign him.

The price San Diego wants is well above the compensation picks, though. And well above Bell's worth...pretty baffling that we're targeting him.

[There There]

Please god no.

Unless this is AA's Francisco/Napoli way of showing the rest of the league that he is not a vengeful deity looking to rain down fire on each of the other GM's in the league

Or even better, if he's going to flip him in some other deal

[Kurtz]

I just hope its for the Type A compensation and not because AA wants to resign him.

The price San Diego wants is well above the compensation picks, though. And well above Bell's worth...pretty baffling that we're targeting him.

I'm always baffled by the derision you hold towards ace closers.

[There There]

I just hope its for the Type A compensation and not because AA wants to resign him.

The price San Diego wants is well above the compensation picks, though. And well above Bell's worth...pretty baffling that we're targeting him.

I'm always baffled by the derision you hold towards ace closers.

You don't sell the farm for aging relievers

You fill your pen with arms from your farm or on the cheap

[Trilogy]

The only way I see us getting Bell is if it's a bargain, but that doesn't seem likely considering he will be a Type A FA.

Our connection to him just seems weird, the only thing that makes sense to me if we flip him ala Jackson somewhere.

[Kurtz]

You don't sell the farm for aging relievers

You fill your pen with arms from your farm or on the cheap

Well, that's what we've been doing, and have ended up with Francisco and Rauch as our closers. Is that the way to go?

Both Franciso and Rauch hold about 66% of their saves over their careers. They're basically guaranteed to blow the save every third time they're out on the mound.

Mariano Rivera has held about 90% of his save opportunities over the last 3 seasons. Bell has held 92%. Yes he's old, but he's been at his best the last two years.

I wouldn't get into a huge bidding war over the guy, but getting an ace closer would not be the most terrible thing in the world.

ps: off course I'd match rather we target Ubaldo and then try to sign Bell in the offseason.

[Schad]

I'm always baffled by the derision you hold towards ace closers.

Well, I'll give you an example using Bell. Right now, he's at 0.6 Wins Above Replacement. That happens to be the same total garnered by Corey Patterson this year. His world-beating 2010 garnered a solid 2.4 WAR, roughly the pace that Jose Molina is on right now. Relievers just don't have that kind of value...it's not that they aren't important, but they aren't "trade two of your best prospects for a 33 year old free-agent-to-be" important, and many of the worst trades in the past twenty-five years have been of precisely that variety.

[There There]

You don't sell the farm for aging relievers

You fill your pen with arms from your farm or on the cheap

Well, that's what we've been doing, and have ended up with Francisco and Rauch as our closers. Is that the way to go?

Both Franciso and Rauch hold about 66% of their saves over their careers. They're basically guaranteed to blow the save every third time they're out on the mound.

Mariano Rivera has held about 90% of his save opportunities over the last 3 seasons. Bell has held 92%. Yes he's old, but he's been at his best the last two years.

I wouldn't get into a huge bidding war over the guy, but getting an ace closer would not be the most terrible thing in the world.

ps: off course I'd match rather we target Ubaldo and then try to sign Bell in the offseason.

That is my point... anything we would spend in obtaining Bell would be FAR better suited towards a Jimenez type deal

We have the arms in our system to primarily build our pen from within without having to overpay for Bell who could fall off the cliff at any moment

Rivera is no comparison; a better comparison would be Ryan... care to repeat that again?

[Brinbe]

Do not want.

[Randle McMurphy]

AA isn't stupid. He's not going to acquire Bell to give him a long-term contract.

[Kurtz]

I'm always baffled by the derision you hold towards ace closers.

Well, I'll give you an example using Bell. Right now, he's at 0.6 Wins Above Replacement. That happens to be the same total garnered by Corey Patterson this year. His world-beating 2010 garnered a solid 2.4 WAR, roughly the pace that Jose Molina is on right now. Relievers just don't have that kind of value...it's not that they aren't important, but they aren't "trade two of your best prospects for a 33 year old free-agent-to-be" important, and many of the worst trades in the past twenty-five years have been of precisely that variety.

I think that just shows that the WAR is broken when it comes to the closer position. Which would make sense, given the nature of the closer position. Giving up a run when you're holding a 3-run lead is inconsequential. Giving up a run when you're holding a one run lead is massive. But would the WAR stat reflect the difference? I genuinely don't know, as I don't know the intricacies of that stat, but I wager not.

Jays have held 22 out of 39 saves this year. Heath has saved 30 of 32 for San Diego this year. If he was doing that here, we'd have 8-12 less blown saves on the season, and thus an extra what, 6-9 wins or so?

That certainly seems more valuable than the 0.6 War.

[There There]

Closers are ridiculously overrated

If we had the likes of Janssen, Camp ( against righties ) and scrabble getting more ninth inning opportunities, we'd most likely have held on to more of those games

[Kurtz]

Closers are ridiculously overrated

If we had the likes of Janssen, Camp ( against righties ) and scrabble getting more ninth inning opportunities, we'd most likely have held on to more of those games

I'd say that's a big myth on this board and among the sabermetricians. And I swear by it. Recall the way you've felt in the 9th that one year when Ryan was healthy compared to how you feel this year with Rauch/Franciso coming out there, or last year with Gregg.

[canucks22]

AA's plan is to keep getting younger and better, as good as Heath Bell is though, I don't see why AA would want to bring him here considering he's a FA next season

[Schad]

I think that just shows that the WAR is broken when it comes to the closer position. Which would make sense, given the nature of the closer position.

No, it shows that the valuation of closers is totally out of whack.

Giving up a run when you're holding a 3-run lead is inconsequential. Giving up a run when you're holding a one run lead is massive. But would the WAR stat reflect the difference? I genuinely don't know, as I don't know the intricacies of that stat, but I wager not.

There is a stat that does: Win Probability Added, which takes into account the situation for every play throughout the season. Heath Bell's is a healthy 2.09 wins added, which is very good. The year before it was 4.49, which is fantastic. The year before that, it was 1.54, which is solid...but Jason Frasor posted a 2.62 WPA that year, followed by -0.13 the next. Why? Because relievers are terribly unpredictable beasts, and you're far better off spending the assets on other bits.

Jays have held 22 out of 39 saves this year. Heath has saved 30 of 32 for San Diego this year. If he was doing that here, we'd have 8 less blown saves on the season, and thus an extra what, 6 wins or so?

Most of those blown saves were before the ninth inning. Is Heath going to be pitching the 7th, 8th and 9th innings?

At most, we're talking about perhaps two wins more, and that's assuming that he isn't considerably worse in the AL East rather than the NL West.

I'd say that's a big myth on this board and among the sabermetricians. And I swear by it. Recall the way you've felt in the 9th that one year when Ryan was healthy compared to how you feel this year with Rauch/Franciso coming out there, or last year with Gregg.

Allowing us to feel more comfortable is not a good enough reason to trade two of our best prospects, followed by handing out something like a 3 year, $25m deal, to a guy who will accomplish far less than the bat or starting pitcher we could acquire for the same pieces.

[jrsmith]

I have absolutely no idea what to make of this, too many scenarios available.

If we acquire him to stick around the biggest positive I can think of, is that its a sign they will be spending in the off season and going all out for next year, hopefully?

[There There]

Closers are ridiculously overrated

If we had the likes of Janssen, Camp ( against righties ) and scrabble getting more ninth inning opportunities, we'd most likely have held on to more of those games

I'd say that's a big myth on this board and among the sabermetricians. And I swear by it. Recall the way you've felt in the 9th that one year when Ryan was healthy compared to how you feel this year with Rauch/Franciso coming out there, or last year with Gregg.

Gregg's save percentage was 86% and no, I did not have a good feeling anytime he came in the game

Again, closers are overrated.

If we had guys like Janssen and Camp facing more batters in the ninth over Rauch/Francisco, I would absolutely feel better

I don't need to overpay for Heath Bell to hold games in late innings

[righteous015]

He's already had Tommy John, has he not? So hopefully AA will be able to flip him for someone more promising like....Jimenez since maybe cuz Street keeps on getting injured. Then again, they're asking for prospects.