Josh Smith's Peak

[azuresou1]

At no point in Chandler's career was he tremendously valuable - until suddenly he gets put on a team where he doesn't need to do anything but defend, rebound, and get easy cleanup baskets because Dirk Nowitzki takes off all the pressure. Pau Gasol went from above-average WS%s in Memphis to Top 5 WS% in LA because suddenly he gets to play with Kobe Bryant who draws way more defensive attention.

Horford is pretty clearly a pick-and-pop PF. I don't know why the **** you're mentioning team construction when it's pretty clear to everyone that the roster is flawed, but that flaw has little to do with Al Horford's merits as a player.

Al Horford is pretty clearly a second/third option on any winning roster - that Joe Johnson has a usage rate of 26.3% despite being horrendously inefficient is an indictment of JJ, not on Horford.

I didn't list shooting % because he clearly is very efficient, but I'd expect a TS of around .595 or so, and we got blown out by 40 because we doubled Dwight every possession and Orlando knocked down easy treys.

[azuresou1]

It boils down to this:

You clearly have an agenda, utilize stats despite not acknowledging the flaws in those stats or even understanding what they mean, have issues with logical comprehension wherein you can take things that players get lauded for (like making the right passes and assisting teammates, and shooting efficiently) and turning them into flaws, and would blame one of the few guys on the team who plays selflessly to make the team better instead of blaming his teammates who would rather pound the ball for 15 seconds and jack up poor jumpshots.

Oh, and you have an inability to be concise and 95% of your posts are giant walls of spam that need to be sifted through.

[Ruhiel]

At no point in Chandler's career was he tremendously valuable - until suddenly he gets put on a team where he doesn't need to do anything but defend, rebound, and get easy cleanup baskets because Dirk Nowitzki takes off all the pressure.

Hello, Chris Paul anyone? He didn't defend and rebound in New Orleans?
This guy has been in the league for a decade and its not until now you notice him,

And trying to use his injury season in an argument not once but twice... He got a trade rescinded for that injury iirc

Garbage buckets and defense and rebounding help win games, deal with it.

Tyson Chandler has made 80 million in 10 seasons salary. That's pretty valuable.

Here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... dty01.html
You sound pretty ignorant.
Go to that link and at the bottom look at "Appearances on Leaderboards, Awards, and Honors".

And by the way Jason Kidd is the best Defensive Wins on that team not Tyson Chandler, so crap on Jason Kidd's accomplishment's while you're at it.

It's Dirk that gave him all those steals right?

Pau Gasol went from above-average WS%s in Memphis to Top 5 WS% in LA because suddenly he gets to play with Kobe Bryant who draws way more defensive attention.

And maybe because Andrew Bynum is better teammate than Milicic. And maybe Odom is better passer than And maybe because playing for LA is a better situation than playing for Memphis.
And despite all these stellar teammates Gasol has never had usage as low as Al's.

azuresou1's original: No, Al Horford is not as assertive as he should be. Despite that, he makes the right play, and I find it hilarious you're trying to construe passing ability as a bad thing. Or his FT%, especially since FT shooting is the biggest flaw for many Cs. Shaq, for all his dominance, couldn't play the last 3-4 minutes of close games because he was a horrible FT shooter.

azuresou1's recant: Horford is pretty clearly a pick-and-pop PF.

Tweener. You cant decide whether to present him as an All Star efficiency center or a flawed power forward who can only pick and pop.

Al Horford is pretty clearly a second/third option on any winning roster - that Joe Johnson has a usage rate of 26.3% despite being horrendously inefficient is an indictment of JJ, not on Horford.

That Joe Johnson has a usage rate of 26.3% despite inefficiency shows that he wants someone else to step up.

26.3 is not as high as you think it is. Previous years he was close to 30.

If he was on Boston versus Ray Allen would he shoot as much as KG? Pierce? I doubt it. He'd be 3rd ahead of Rondo.
name age usg%
Kevin Garnett 31 25.5
Paul Pierce 30 24.8
Ray Allen 32 21.6
Rajon Rondo 21 18.9

Al's 21% would not beat a 32 yo Ray Allen.

On what insane "championship" roster is Al a 2nd/3rd option???
2011: Is Al taking shots away from Nowitzki? Terry? Marion?
2005: Is Al taking shots away from Duncan? Ginobili? Parker?
2004: Is Al taking shots away from Billups? Hamilton? Rasheed?

I didn't list shooting % because he clearly is very efficient, but I'd expect a TS of around .595 or so, and we got blown out by 40 because we doubled Dwight every possession and Orlando knocked down easy treys.

Fair enough but his best series came at center. There's no shooters when Al is at the 4. Unless we trade Smith or Johnson for Durant an Al Horford based roster will not work.


You (and a lot of Hawks fans) want a bootleg Jack Sikma/ Pau Gasol. An IQ/efficiency that you can peacock at the All Star Game and then blame others when he falters in playoffs.

I want to stock the team with 4 Jason Terry's. IQ guys with tangible excellent role-playing-skills that you look around the East and the rest of the league and they have skills that make them near impossible covers in the playoffs while defending well.

This is where Smith comes in at sf. This is where Joe Johnson comes in at sg.

What does Horford do at pf? same thing Josh does at sf but worse. Thats why you listed/compared him to Shaq and then recanted.

Horford is not a scoring forward. Labeling someone Pick and pop is a flaw in itself, especially when you have a guy like Jeff Teague at the controls.

Or do you have Hinrich starting to turn the ball over trying to complement Horford's pick and pop?

[azuresou1]

Tyson Chandler's WS% wasn't nearly as good in NOH as it was in Dallas, even when he was healthy. What's his excuse there? LOL at using salary to justify value, I guess Eddy Curry is like god-tier.

Pau Gasol and his teammates just proves the flaws inherent in WS%. I hope you realize you are supporting my argument, not yours.

You must be joking. In today's NBA, a guy like Horford has to play C due to a lack of talent at the position, yet he would dominate more as a PF where his size/frame/skillset puts him. Despite playing out of position, he still made the ASG as a C. This is not a complicated idea.

Joe Johnson ever being at 30 USG% is a total joke, because he's ideally a second option. It's interesting you only list a few specific teams that Al Horford wouldn't be a second/third option on, which are coincidentally teams with premier PFs. He would be a third option on any of the Kobe Lakers teams, Wade's Heat, Jordan's Bulls, and Hakeem's Rockets. Quite literally, in the last 20 years, there are probably 4 years where Al Horford would not be the third option.

We should trade Josh or Joe or Marvin before we consider trading an PF who has to play C and yet still plays at an All-Star level. Al Horford at PF is FAR better than Josh Smith as a SF, and it's a joke that you think otherwise.

[Ruhiel]

Tyson Chandler's WS% wasn't nearly as good in NOH as it was in Dallas, even when he was healthy. What's his excuse there? LOL at using salary to justify value, I guess Eddy Curry is like god-tier.

What are you talking about???

2010-11 28 DAL 2059 0.218 57 win: Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Dirk Nowitzki
10- injured
09- injured
2007-08 25 NOH 2783 0.172 56 win: Chris Paul, David West, Stojacovic
2004-05 22 CHI 2189 0.183 47 win team: Kirk Hinrich, rookie Luol Deng, Eddy Curry

And in the playoffs it dropped to 17% wins while Dirk's stayed the same.
Tyson Chandler has basically been a better more consistent Andris Biedrins for several years. He goes from 1 Hall of Fame teammate to two and you poopoo his stats despite the team being only 57 wins compared to New Orleans 56 wins before Tyson got injured and then got traded.

Pau Gasol and his teammates just proves the flaws inherent in WS%. I hope you realize you are supporting my argument, not yours.

Pau Gasol career highs
Memphis: PER, minutes played, defensive rebound %, assist %, steal %, block %, usage %, Defensive Rating Defensive Wins Shared

Los Angeles: True Shooting% offensive rebound%, Offensive Rtg, Offensive Wins Shared
Turnover %
So basically all of Pau Gasol's defensive career highs came in Memphis. Meanwhile in LA his True Shooting goes up probably from assisting (Kobe, Phil, Odom etc.)
His offensive boards go up because of Bynum double teaming. His usage goes down because Kobe "ballhogs".

And his offensive Rating rockets up because his team is better.

And yet Win Share/ 48 is flawed because it reflects:
that lower usage, higher efficiency, offensive rebounds and only turning the ball over 9.8 times is
what wins games.

Pau Gasol is a big man. There is no way he should be assisting 23.7% of all shots as a PF. Lakers corrected this by giving him Kobe Bryant. His point guards were assisting on 20.1% of all shots.

The big men are supposed to score easy buckets inside (ie offensive boards) not invert the team and defer to jump shooters (Al Horford to Bibby, Pau Gasol to Damon Stoudamire)

Thats why the Hawks lose, sure you like to see a big man pass but is it worth it if he cant score or command a hard double?

You must be joking. In today's NBA, a guy like Horford has to play C due to a lack of talent at the position, yet he would dominate more as a PF where his size/frame/skillset puts him. Despite playing out of position, he still made the ASG as a C. This is not a complicated idea.

You must be joking. He made the ASG as a C because in today's NBA, a guy like Horford gets appreciation due to a lack of talent at the position.

He would not dominate more as a PF because his speed advantage is taken away and he has no coordination or special length ability to score off the post.

Beating someone off the dribble in close quarters is a skill. Facing up in the post is a skill. Horford lacks this. His size/frame/skillset puts him at center. His lack of defense makes him a tweener.

Imagine if Amare Stoudemire couldn't score off the dribble and had worse post moves.

Would you play him next to Ronnie Turiaf or put another shooter in? a Mike Bibby? a Jamal Crawford. Play small and try to outquick the opposition?

What proof do you have that Horford who's only discernible dribbling skill is attempting to lead the fast break could play power forward in the halfcourt.

We'd have to go on a wild goose chase for a 3 point shooting offensive "center" ie Bargnani or Channing Frye, guys who are considered PFs because of weak defense and perimeter skills.
No thx. I'd rather trade him.

Joe Johnson ever being at 30 USG% is a total joke, because he's ideally a second option. It's interesting you only list a few specific teams that Al Horford wouldn't be a second/third option on, which are coincidentally teams with premier PF's.

Johnson is a 2nd/3rd option. around 25% Usage on a balanced contender. Not just a team with superstars ie Kobe or Shaq. Ideally Josh Smith's usage of possessions should be how many offensive boards fast breaks and post ups he gets.

And no its not a coincidence. PF is the least interchangeable position over the past championships.
You dont seem to grasp this.
Duncan and Gasol with their offensive rebounding. Garnett with his jump shooting passing and 7 foot frame.
He could have played center sure. But Kendrick Perkins, who is worse than Tyson Chandler mind you was retained for the "Twin Towers" format.
Perkins grabbed 10% of all offensive boards and his length with Garnett Pierce kept who knows how many other possessions alive.

[Ruhiel]

[Horford] in would be a third option o[n] any of the Kobe Lakers teams, Wade's Heat, and Hakeem's Rockets.

WOW, now lets just get Kobe and Gasol, Wade and Shaq, Jordan, and Hakeem to come on down! Is Durant available?

1996 Jordan's Bulls- 33.3- Jordan, 24.4 Pippen, 21.4 Kukoc - 72 win team.
Horford would be deferring like no other and he'd play center btw. No way Phil sacrifices Rodman's defense for another mid range jump shooter. Especially when he has Kukoc

1995 Hakeem Olajuwon 31.7 Clyde Drexler 24.2 Vernon Maxwell 21.5

Quite literally, the last 20 years, there are probably 4 years where Al Horford would not be the third option.

Quite literally you need a superstar to make him a third option.

We should trade Josh or Joe or Marvin before we consider trading a[n] PF who has to play C and yet still plays at an All-Star level. Al Horford at PF is FAR better than Josh Smith as a SF, and it's a joke that you think otherwise.

How in the heck did Marvin enter the conversation? Despite what I feel Marvin can be, Trading what is seen as a Garbage contract = Garbage contract.

CHAMPIONSHIPS or the BIG PICTURE

Josh Smith vs. Paul Pierce, Ron Artest, Trevor Ariza, Bruce Bowen, James Posey/Antoine Walker, Tayshaun Prince, Devean George, Rick Fox
or
Al Horford vs. Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan, Udonis Haslem
or Al Horford (undersized scoring center) vs Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bynum, David Robinson (still a great defender), Rasho Nasterovic
.........
Paul Pierce> Josh Smith > Ron Artest> Tayshaun Prince> Trevor Ariza> Bruce Bowen> James Posey/Antoine Walker> Devean George, Rick Fox
or
Tim Duncan> Dirk Nowitzki> Pau Gasol> Al Horford> Udonis Haslem

[azuresou1]

Your entire premise is we should trade our best player because he's not perfect and instead try to get worse players, and because for some reason you think he sucks as a PF despite all evidence pointing to the contrary. Literally every single poster disagrees with you on this topic. Every last one, on multiple boards.

XFD at talking about blaming Horford for poor spacing when he's an elite shooting bigman and Josh Smith and Marvin can't even manage .43 eFG% on jumpshots and Joe Johnson is barely better.

Trading your best player for scrubs makes you worse, not better.

[Synapse]

I didn't read through the entire thread but I got the gist of it, and I agree with azuresou1.

- Horford is a better player than Josh.
- Horford has not plateaued. He has (undeniably) improved every year he's been in the league, resulting in an All-NBA Team selection last year.
- The Hawks should choose to build around Horford, not trade him.
- I like your passion Ruhiel, but I really don't understand your obsession with trading Horford for 3 scrubs from the Rockets. Why so desperate to get rid of one of the best young big men in the league?

On a side note, the idea that the Hawks HAVE to trade one of Josh or Al because they're too small to play together is wrong. The Hawks made it past the Magic (and the best center in the league) last year just by properly utilizing role players like Collins and Hinrich. The positives of a Smith/Horford frontcourt outweigh the negatives - no reason to accept a less talented player in a trade just because he's a couple inches taller.

[Ruhiel]

Literally every single poster disagrees with you on this topic. Every last one, on multiple boards.

XFD at talking about blaming Horford for poor spacing when he's an elite shooting bigman and Josh Smith and Marvin can't even manage .43 eFG% on jumpshots and Joe Johnson is barely better.

Trading your best player for [multiple role players/ replacement by committee] makes you worse, not better.

Tell that to New York's 1st round sweep. Carmelo and Amare are supreme scorers (unlike Al) but need help getting stops.

My entire premise is we should trade our best player because he's not able to score like a PF should. A PF can dribble bump into you create contact and shoot over the top of you.

Horford needs screens ball movement and guards to incorporate him into the offense. Sort of like a smaller high maintenance Pau Gasol.

I'd rather go another route and get a 7'0 power forward and a 6'10 PF in Hill that can get score inside score off the dribble bump and draw fouls.

Come playoff time Horford disappears time after time.

I want a power forward. What would Rasheed Wallace do if he played center. Shoot more.
All evidence shows he is not able to be a consistent volume shooter as a PF.

If Amare and Elton Brand play center they don't stiffen up. If Carmelo plays PF does he get more or less shots.

If Blake Griffin plays center (obviously ignoring defense here) he's still the same player. He'll get his shots if you give him an inch.
Al gets pushed under the backboard and travels trying to dribble.

Jason Terry volume shooter. Rip Hamilton volume shooter. Chauncey Billups, Joe Johnson? big post up guards volume shooters.

Horford? 6'10 pivot man who consistently switches pivots when he tries to dribble.
Terry's shooting caught fire in the playoffs that's what I want on the team.

Larry Drew Joe Johnson Josh Smith don't take Horford out of the offense just like no one can keep Amare from raising up and shooting jump shots.

Horford is not that guy and that's what we need. Not a pick and pop PF.
If Horford's pick and Pop were such a threat why does he not get more than 16 ppg? Because he pops, gets crowded and passes it back.

So now we have to rely on Jamal Crawford or whomever we have at guard running the play.
3.5 assists are not an accident.

I want Motiejunas. A 7'1 post up lefty with the range we wish Smith had and even more offensive awareness and inside out ability.

I want an intense athletic 10 man rotation to beat the Bulls Bench Mob.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BefDIfLUqI[/youtube]
As azuresou1 noted with Al's usage and Rick Sund noted No one on this team is or ever will be a superstar.
Build around Horford? No natural way to make Horford a 3rd option. 21% in regular season? He was doing that throughout January last year!
What happened come playoffs? Cream rises to the crop and he goes down to 17%.

I'm watching Elimination Game 6 Horford's low usage is his due to his incapability. It's his fault no one else.

Building around Al Horford is quite literally like Building around Lamar Odom.

You need superstar scorers to make it work at either position. IE Horford on OKC would work. A prime Paul Pierce and Al plus Ray Allen and a center would work.

We cant get that. We get Josh Smith and Marvin Williams.

I regret that this thread morphed into basically an Al Horford potential thread. He deserves his own Eastern Conference thread.

[Ruhiel]

I didn't read through the entire thread but I got the gist of it, and I agree with azuresou1.

- Horford is a better player than Josh.

This thread is called 'Josh Smith's Peak'. It's about Josh Smith peaking in 2010. Honestly, Maybe I should rename it Josh Smith's regression/weight gain?

- Horford has not plateaued.

He has increased his set shot range every year he's been in the league. Due to the lack of talent at the position it resulted in an All-NBA Team selection last year.

Whoever is on the voting committee really loves to romanticize the undersized center that is Al Horford and hates Josh Smith.
Horford received more defense Team votes than Smith iirc. Azuresou1 said that Joe Johnson's 30% usage is a joke. However thats how he amassed his 25-5-5 numbers and 5 all Star selections. Is Joe Johnson a joke of an All Star? $30 million per all star Game heading into the season?
Lets not use biased votes, lets use stats and %s.

As a side note Joakim Noah was put at Forward on the 3rd All NBA team just to avoid putting Al there. Maybe Joakim is more forward than Al is . Bulls are saying Joakim should follow Horford to that position.

- The Hawks should choose to build around Horford, not trade him.

- Horford likes to pass = give him 3 point shooters
- Needs a passer + shooter = Mike Bibby
- more shooting= Jamal Crawford
- Bibby's defense sucks= trade pick for Hinrich

We have built around him.

- I like your passion Ruhiel, but I really don't understand your obsession with trading Horford for 3 [role players] from the Rockets. Why so desperate to get rid of one of the best [passing] young big men in the league?

Kendrick Perkins is/was a scrub. Rondo was a scrub.
Jeff Teague is/was a scrub. But they all had potential talent to exploit.

PF is the most important position in the recent title contenders come playoffs.
Half wing, half low post option.

Horf's 21% usage and trying to assist everything means we're is not going to get it done.
Less free throws, over rely on guards and Josh Smith to win us the title.

Building around Al is impossible. His lack of versatility means he's a 21% usage guy at best.
That is 4th option use.

On a side note, the idea that the Hawks HAVE to trade one of Josh or Al because they're too small to play together is wrong. The Hawks made it past the Magic (and the best center in the league) last year just by properly utilizing role players like Collins and Hinrich.

Some numbers say Joakim Noah is #2 center in the East. And he has Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer on his team, not Ryan Andersen Jameer Nelson and an injured Arenas.

Yes Hawks played a traditional lineup and Otis Smith is an idiot.

The positives of a Smith/Horford frontcourt outweigh the negatives

Josh Smith's defense and combination of skill size and coordination is the only reason he's special.
Extremely fluid player. He needs to get to 2010 athletic levels because he is NOT a halfcourt player.

no reason to accept a less talented player in a trade just because he's a couple inches taller.

This is going on from a previous thread but the trade was:

PF
- Motiejunas: 37" inch vert+ 7'0.5 + same length as Blake Griffin, Troy Murphy, Zach Randolph. Successful in isolation plays, reminds of Toni Kukoc from old footage. Has put on weight.
- Hill: 6'10 slasher off the bench. Helps against Joakim Boozer etc. VERY impressive versus Garnett as long as he plays hard 17 mpg should mirror Zaza's stats (6ppg and 6rpg, blocks free throws).

His offensive rebounding when motivated was through the roof due to his athleticism, he just hustles and is long enough to grab the boards.

C
- Thabeet: matched up well with Dwight, his height alone is an obstacle, a 26 mpg center, gives us a different look from Zaza. Same offensive rebounds as Kendrick Perkins but he tips them in.
A cheaper Dalembert who matches up and provides obstacles with Dwight, Bynum, Bogut. Joakim? maybe.

Just a long term upgrade over Jason Collins and helps us put Motiejunas in PF position to condense scoring and most importantly 2nd chance opportunities.

Basically come playoffs Horford-Smith is Marion and Diaw. Wouldn't you rather have Marion and a taller Zach Randolph with more range? Motiejunas deserves his own thread and I'll try to get the 2009 footage so we can see what he does in isolation versus what Al does with his physical toolbox {stockier Amare; without the length advantage and thus hampered scoring}.

[Ruhiel]

"On a side note, the idea that the Hawks HAVE to trade one of Josh or Al because they're too small to play together is wrong. The Hawks made it past the Magic (and the best center in the league) last year just by properly utilizing role players like Collins and Hinrich. The positives of a Smith/Horford frontcourt outweigh the negatives - no reason to accept a less talented player in a trade just because he's a couple inches taller."

Firstly Josh is just too heavy to be effective in the playoffs, he needs to play a speed game.
This is part of the reason he moved his play away from the rim. At best he hits a few gr8 post ups then disappears. He lacks the energy and athleticism to score there consistently.

Now, a typical frontcourt has 3 people in it, not 2. Luol Deng, Carmelo, Lebron are not backcourt players, they rebound with the best of them and are forwards.

Now Marvin Williams is average at best at that spot.
Shawn Marion was a 16% rebounder, Josh Smith is a consistent 14% - 15%.
Josh Smith is the best rebounder at the SF come playoffs.
At PF he isn't even top 30, you give opposition chance to rebound and have a bunch of 1-way guards + no ones hitting jumpers well you end up with a 40 win record.

Now do I want stretch shooters? Yes but around Josh. Why? Because he's the one that posts up and draws the double team and at his peak can shoot hook shots and score in the paint consistently.

Particularly to replace Crawford/Marvin with Motiejunas would maintain spacing, increase free throws. Crawford is a defensive liability, even moreso now that we signed Joe.
Marvin is not as consistent stretch or baseline shooter/driver as a 7'0 with a good shot. The 7'0 can drive by and draw contact if you overcommit, with Marv it does not matter because he cant post up and thus wont get much touches.

Versatility is the key to scoring - Oscar Robertson

If you can only score one way dont you think the defense [Dallas, LA, Miami, Chicago] will figure it out sooner or later?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PQc4AGceKg[/youtube]