Runs For and Against by Inning

[Sifu]

Anyone have a breakdown of runs scored and given up by inning by team?

Just interested in seeing the distribution of runs scored against the Jays given that they have 19 blown saves - most of which occurred before the Rasmus trade, and the prevailing view that the Jays bullpen (before the Rasmus trade) was fairly good.

Anecdotically, it seems that teams score quite often against the Jays late in the game. However, this may just be a perception thing in which we just notice this when it occurs but don't give it much thought when it does not.

[Schad]

Taken from baseball-reference.com...our runs allowed by inning:

1st - 43.
2nd - 63.
3rd - 90.
4th - 53.
5th - 71.
6th - 54.
7th - 30.
8th - 50.
9th - 53.
10+ - 7.

Of course, that doesn't tell the whole story, as we've played the 9th far fewer times than innings 1-8. Here they are, in descending order by ERA:

3rd - 6.19.
5th - 5.62.
2nd - 4.74.
9th - 4.69.
6th - 4.10.
4th - 4.02.
8th - 3.86.
1st - 3.29.
10+ - 2.17.
7th - 2.09.

1st-3rd: 4.74.
4th-6th: 4.58.
7th-9th: 3.46.

Starters: 4.51 ERA.
Relievers: 3.69 ERA.


So overall, the relief corps hasn't been that bad; the nearly run-a-game gap between the starters and relievers is not unusual. But yeah, the ninth inning has been rocky.

[Sifu]

Thanks. I wonder how this compares against the elite teams and/or how a top end closer would impact the team in terms of wins. I always thought that up to this point of the season, that a top end closer would be worth an additional 5 games to this team. If you take that as WAR in the strictest sense, that would be a 5 WAR worth.

A closer like BJ Ryan in his first season with the Jays, in which he (and Papelbon in that year) were virtually unhittable would probably be worth 8 or 9 games.

They'd still be out of the wildcard position, but would be highly competitive. And who knows? Winning is contagious, and winning more may inspire others on the team to do better and they could be in a wildcard spot.

[guvernator]

Thanks. I wonder how this compares against the elite teams and/or how a top end closer would impact the team in terms of wins. I always thought that up to this point of the season, that a top end closer would be worth an additional 5 games to this team. If you take that as WAR in the strictest sense, that would be a 5 WAR worth.

A closer like BJ Ryan in his first season with the Jays, in which he (and Papelbon in that year) were virtually unhittable would probably be worth 8 or 9 games.

They'd still be out of the wildcard position, but would be highly competitive. And who knows? Winning is contagious, and winning more may inspire others on the team to do better and they could be in a wildcard spot.

How did you come to that conclusion?

[Sifu]

Thanks. I wonder how this compares against the elite teams and/or how a top end closer would impact the team in terms of wins. I always thought that up to this point of the season, that a top end closer would be worth an additional 5 games to this team. If you take that as WAR in the strictest sense, that would be a 5 WAR worth.

A closer like BJ Ryan in his first season with the Jays, in which he (and Papelbon in that year) were virtually unhittable would probably be worth 8 or 9 games.

They'd still be out of the wildcard position, but would be highly competitive. And who knows? Winning is contagious, and winning more may inspire others on the team to do better and they could be in a wildcard spot.

How did you come to that conclusion?

Totally hypothetical. It's just some random musings on my part, but the reason I was asking for the runs per inning stat.

[Schad]

Thanks. I wonder how this compares against the elite teams and/or how a top end closer would impact the team in terms of wins. I always thought that up to this point of the season, that a top end closer would be worth an additional 5 games to this team. If you take that as WAR in the strictest sense, that would be a 5 WAR worth.

A closer like BJ Ryan in his first season with the Jays, in which he (and Papelbon in that year) were virtually unhittable would probably be worth 8 or 9 games.

Not even remotely close to 8-9 wins; not likely 5, either. I went through the game logs for all of our relievers, and came up with eight games where we had blown saves in the 9th leading to losses (which is an abnormally high number). However, not all of those were by the closer at the time; to salvage all of those eight wins in a perfect world scenario, you would need a closer who i) never allows a run, and ii) is available for all 162 games. No such pitcher exists.

Now, let's look at the other side of the ledger. BJ Ryan, in that unhittable season, blew five saves. Papelbon, despite an ERA below 1.00, had six blown saves (plus a loss in a game that he entered with a tied score), with five resulting in losses.

So extrapolating our current numbers out, we'd be expected to end with roughly 11 of them this year, vs. ~5 for the elites. But even the best closer can't pitch in every 9th inning save situation owing to fatigue, so knock 11 down to 10. That would give you your five wins.

However, there's another factor: the closeness of the scores in the games played, which affects whether a surrendered run leads to a tie game or two leads to a loss. Beyond his five blown saves, Ryan also surrendered runs in three games that led to saves, and the Jays had a season with very few one-run games...only 30, the lowest total in all of baseball. Boston though had nearly 50 of them, and in fact every time Papelbon allowed a run, it resulted in a blown save or loss. Yet we're currently on pace for even more than that: roughly 54 of them. Depending on how generous you are, you can probably subtract another win from the ledger there.

That means, entirely unscientifically, that the difference between our totally **** end-of-game pitching and the elite performances of a Ryan/Papelbon is probably 4-5 wins. But our bullpen's suckitude in the 9th has been aberrant in its awfulness, and the performance of Ryan/Papelbon historically good. The difference between a merely sh*tty option and a merely great closer? Probably 2-3 wins.

And that's where we're at. Ninth-inning help is going to be an important addition but will not mean the difference between an 80ish win season and a playoff berth. It needs to be the final touch on a roster already in position to compete...and thus, our priority needs to be on the improvements that will get us the ten wins to get us in position, before the two or three that get us over the top.

[Sifu]

Thanks. Looks like you went through a lot of work to come up with that analysis. It is much appreciated.