Series Thread: Blue Jays @ Mariners Aug 15-17

[youreachiteach]

Over his last two seasons as a starter, Brandon Morrow is 9th among MLB starters in FIP (3.12), 18th in xFIP (3.45), and 9th in SIERA (3.24). But yeah, apparently they're going to have to turn him into a closer.

Morrow's one issue is that he has problems pitching out of the stretch (.771 OPS vs. .642 OPS with the windup: http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... &t=p#bases). It's clearly nothing significant enough to keep him from being a valuable starter, though.

it would actually be another reason to not want him coming out of the pen... but that ERA, oh that awful **** ERA, clearly Morrow is on a short leash from here on out

He places himself on the leash--he averages barely 6 innings a start as our second best pitcher with an ERA over 4.

[youreachiteach]

Over his last two seasons as a starter, Brandon Morrow is 9th among MLB starters in FIP (3.12), 18th in xFIP (3.45), and 9th in SIERA (3.24). But yeah, apparently they're going to have to turn him into a closer.

Morrow's one issue is that he has problems pitching out of the stretch (.771 OPS vs. .642 OPS with the windup: http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... &t=p#bases). It's clearly nothing significant enough to keep him from being a valuable starter, though.

it would actually be another reason to not want him coming out of the pen... but that ERA, oh that awful **** ERA, clearly Morrow is on a short leash from here on out

Oh well, if his only problem is with runners on...we shouldn't worry about it. I'm sure he'll strike everyone out so he never has any baserunners. Good call.

[Weems]

If Morrow could prevent that one bad inning that he'll sometimes have, he'd be scary good if he's not already at that point. His 62.5% LOB% is one percentage point off the worst rate in the majors. There's no reason to believe he'll continue being so bad with runners on base. He was in the ~90th percentile in that category with Seattle including his 15 starts.

When that problem goes away, he'll be able to pitch more innings.

[youreachiteach]

The question not being asked here is WHY?

WHY does he blowup at the beginning and the middle of games? It can't simply be dismissed as bad statistical luck. Sure, some of it might be. But this is a very consistent pattern for several years now.

I know I'm going out on a limb here, but I bet it's because the first few innings he's trying to establish his heater (which most advanced offences are sitting on) and later when the poorer teams start gauging the how fast the heater is.

So, in essence, it's all about the placement of the fastball. If Morrow doesn't start to show some different pitches early and late, the hitters are teeing off on his fastball and looking for it early and late in counts. Hitters that know what' s coming (despite the speed) will eventually get to you if you don't throw the secondary pitches. It's what happens to Alvarez, but he's not quite as polished as Morrow.

[Weems]

Why? It could be a number of things.

Not sure why you keep repeating that it's been happening for several seasons, because it hasn't.

[brwnman]

I fairly sure he started at least once against the Jays earlier on...they did move him back and forth from the pen (ie., he wasn't just a reliever)--and just because the runs he gave up might not have been earned, I'm not senile, he did do the same thing. Maybe it was 3 or four innings. As I say, it was several years ago. I have also watched him pitch quite a bit because he played for Seattle when I was in Korea, which gets the Japanese channel. They show A LOT of Mariners games because of Ichiro.

But he didn't.
Also, against the Jays, he has given up 1 HIT! in his career. in 7 1/3 innings. But yes, 6 walks in THOSE 7 odd inning is terrible, no one is denying that. But that has nothing to do with him being a starter, cause he's never started against the Jays.

So, it might have been against another team, but in any event, that's not really my point, is it. Just to reiterate: Morrow has a problem because he becomes pretty obvious after the first few innings and won't throw his change up nearly enough. And that will continue to get him tagged for the big inning until that changes. Good job going off on a minor tangential point, though.

Yep. Could have been another team. I wasn't trying to make this a big deal, just was pointing out that Morrow has never started against the jays. And I doubt he's ever gone past 1 inning versus the jays, let alone 3 1/3. 8 Games - 7 1/3 innings.

It was several years ago and might not have technically been recorded as a start--I don't know. But he has always had that same problem with Seattle--which is why they gave up on him in the first place. Did you think he was available because the Mariners are idiots?

And the reason it wasn't "technically" recorded as a start, was because he didn't start. Wait? Do you even know what Seattle did with him or do you just like making stuff up?

Firstly, he only had 15 starts with Seattle in a span of 2 years. His second year in the league, he had 5 starts at the end of year. And his third year in the league, he had 10 starts to end the year. Both times, he started AS A RELIEVER, and ended the campaign as a starter. So you're going to tell me, 15 games as a starter is all you need to see from a guy who was 24 at the time with THAT arm? When you're trying to stretch him out as a starter mid-season?

Pitchers need a full spring training to get stretched out and you're asking a 23-24 year old to do it midseason. His last 4 starts as a Seattle Mariners was 23 2/3innings 2.66 ERA. Since that's the ONLY stat that matters to you. And what did they trade him for? A reliever (a damn good one at that), but still. You traded 70 innings at best, for a guy who has A++ stuff at age 24 and can be a starter. So are the Mariners idiots? In this case, yes they were. You do not trade a starter with that kind of stuff for a reliever (unless you're a contending club and you're trading a kid for a guy who can win you a championship this year).

Also, 6 walks to 11 strikeouts sucks. Like Morrow said himself ..."every inning I was here I was in a 3-2 count". He's always lived on the edge and required too many damn pitches to finish hitters off. There's only so many "got him looking" strikeouts you're going to get.

Again, those 6 walks/11Ks are in 7 1/3 relief appearances. I do agree with the fact that he does need too many pitches to finish hitters off. But that's with any guy who Ks a bunch.

Morrow has wonderful stuff. No one doubts that. But he needs another pitch. Yes, the 12 strikeouts are great. But having a guy who averages 6 innings--FINE by your own admission, is not a top starter. Which is what I said. You countered with XFIP, which has nothing to do with what actually happens when he pitches, only the result. We get it: Morrow is an XFIP dream. He strikes everybody out. No chance of the ball getting to the outfield there! But if he is so excellent, why does his ERA suck ****?

Morrow needs another pitch. On days when **** teams or a liberal ump help him out, he'll avoid the big inning barely (just like he did tonight). On days when better hitting ballclubs make him pay for his two dimensional game--he'll get beat like a rented mule lke the Red Sox did to him.

Those "stats" are HUGE in baseball. It helps explain long-term success potential for a guy. It's possible a guy could be getting unlucky. It happens. Those bloop hits, those groundballs that get through, those double plays not turned. As for another pitch. 100% agree that he needs it. He's getting by on 2-pitches at the moment and is a very good pitcher. If he wants to be a GREAT pitcher, he needs a third pitch. Whether it be that slow curve, or a changeup. Either one will do the trick; but he needs it. Especially when he can't throw 98 anymore and needs three (to four) different pitches to get hitters out.

Whether you like it or not, or would like to believe or not. You need to be able to K batters, or be an extreme groundball pitcher to be effective in the ML (along with control). Morrow has always been a guy that can/will walk guys; so it's ultra important for him to be able to K guys or induce groundballs. And why is his ERA so high? That's what those stats are trying to explain; that sometimes it's just bad luck, but you don't wanna hear it.

As for him going 6 innings. We all know he started the year terribly ( you could say due to injury and the fact that he hadn't pitched in a while - remember he got shut down early last year). But in his last 12 starts, he's gone at least 6 innings in 10 of his last 12 starts; in 7 of 12, he went at least 7 innings.

And really, that Baltimore start was unfair to him. Yunel botched the double play, and that means extra pitches, dangerous hitter at the plate, but since it was a close game, you pitch more carefully. He makes that double play; Adam Jones comes on the next inning with nobody on; and we win that game. Blue Jays defense screwed him TWICE that game. Yet, he still went 7 2/3 innings in that game.

In conclusion, Brandon Morrow is not an Ace. But he has ace-like stuff. He is one average pitch away from being a GREAT pitcher. He can be a great pitcher on any given night, but consistency haunts him and that is because of a lack of a third pitch and the fact that some nights he can't locate. However, to say that he has failed as a starter? Not even close. He's been solid and on some nights, absolutely spectacular. You don't judge a starting pitcher until the end of year 3 (not with that kind of arm -Brad Mills is a different story [he should be DFA/traded to a team in the NL]). This is only year 2 (as a starter - please don't bring up Seattle and with the stupidity they handled him), and he still hasn't been stretched out fully to go 200 innings year in and year out. To me, I've seen flashes of the changeup and flashes of the curve ball. If he can come in next year, and truly locate those pitches or be able to throw it with confidence on those 1-2, 2-2 counts, it'll really shorten the innings for him and he'll be able to throw more innings game in and game out. That's how close he is to being an ELITE pitcher. For some, it never happens, but as a Jays fan, you hope it does; because he you see flashes of brilliance, even with only two pitches...

[youreachiteach]

We're essentially saying the same thing here. You're saying he needs a new pitch, I'm saying he needs a new pitch.

Irrespective of whether he faced the Blue Jays or not, the fact remains he needs an out pitch (which you clearly know).

No one is suggesting throwing him off the team. I am saying, he's got about a year to start developing that pitch. If he doesn't in his next full season, I think it's safe to say he'll top out as a number three pitcher on a very good staff.

I only suggested he go to the pen so that he could be a closer (something we need desperately). I'm not saying he's failed yet, and no, he hasn't had five years, but he's had enough reps if you count Seattle to have added to his repertoire by now, and he hasn't.

You say the stats indicate he's been unlucky in those innings, but I've seen him get smashed around quite a bit. I don't think the hits have been bleeders through the right side, like you're intimating. Unless there's a chart of where all the hits went, we won't really know though. And just because the team makes an error doesn't give him the liscense to unravel.

Yes, he's a good pitcher now---but we need him to be a great pitcher. I certainly do hope he learns, as I've intimated already. That's all. With his stuff, he should be an ace by now. You want to give him a pass for Seattle, that's fine. They did rush him. But sooner or later (and frankly, much sooner than later) he had better learn that other pitch you speak of, or those numbers and the big inning are going to keep him where he is now--not good enough to be elite or to lead the Jays to the playoffs.

[Lateral Quicks]

If no one else will, I guess I'll say it.

They're three games above .500. OHHHHHHHHHHH YEAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

It feels like a dream...

[brwnman]

We're essentially saying the same thing here. You're saying he needs a new pitch, I'm saying he needs a new pitch.

Irrespective of whether he faced the Blue Jays or not, the fact remains he needs an out pitch (which you clearly know).

No one is suggesting throwing him off the team. I am saying, he's got about a year to start developing that pitch. If he doesn't in his next full season, I think it's safe to say he'll top out as a number three pitcher on a very good staff.

I only suggested he go to the pen so that he could be a closer (something we need desperately). I'm not saying he's failed yet, and no, he hasn't had five years, but he's had enough reps if you count Seattle to have added to his repertoire by now, and he hasn't.

You say the stats indicate he's been unlucky in those innings, but I've seen him get smashed around quite a bit. I don't think the hits have been bleeders through the right side, like you're intimating. Unless there's a chart of where all the hits went, we won't really know though. And just because the team makes an error doesn't give him the liscense to unravel.

Yes, he's a good pitcher now---but we need him to be a great pitcher. I certainly do hope he learns, as I've intimated already. That's all. With his stuff, he should be an ace by now. You want to give him a pass for Seattle, that's fine. They did rush him. But sooner or later (and frankly, much sooner than later) he had better learn that other pitch you speak of, or those numbers and the big inning are going to keep him where he is now--not good enough to be elite or to lead the Jays to the playoffs.

Again, those 2+/3 seasons with Seattle are a wash. I'm not going to look at them. When you're a reliever with that kind of stuff, you only need two pitches. There was no need for him to develop a third pitch a that point. Look at Brandon League for example, he's got a hard sinker that can touch three digits and a filthy slider. As long as locates those two pitches, he'll continue to be a very good closer for years to come.

To me, you were saying that he should be a reliever whereas I say, give him time (especially when we have so much pitching coming in the farm system that are not ready yet). End of next year; he will put it together by then. Even if he doesn't, there's a good chance he can still be a starter in the ALE. If he's your 4th or 5th starter in the rotation? You're laughing as a team. But I have faith in him developing a third pitch. I've seem him throw it on a couple of occasions; it's just him getting the confidence to throw it in critical counts. Once he does it, I really think his ERA will start nearing 3 rather than 4.

Also, I've gone to 2 Morrow starts this year and he got lit up in both. One was his own fault, the other, Farrell never gave him the chance to come out of. I went to Morrow versus Scherzer and I think he left with the bases loaded and I think it was camp who came up and gave up a bases clearing double or something like that. That was earlier in the year. The second start was against Baltimore and they just weren't missing anything that day. He was being lit up properly that day. That was a day where he couldn't throw a fastball by them; it didn't have the same type of life, and they were hitting it out.

[youreachiteach]

Hey, I hope you're right. I wrote another post that got erased about how spoiled we have been over the years with excellent Jay pitching staffs. I mean seriously, we had like 10 years of good to great pitchers--just little batting.


Watching converted relievers around the league become the new "aces" for lack of better options on basically 2 pitches and a prayer speaks to the dearth of pitching in the league. All you need for evidence of this is Boston and New York's pitching staffs. They've gone from excellent to average to poor (with several retreads). Or look at Seattle and Texas. Almost every young star pitcher has the same two pitches.

[brwnman]

In my opinion, if you're only gonna have to pitches. A slider and a sinking fastballs are the best combo. One goes in, the other goes out and they can be effective to either hitter. Changeup would be third on my list...