Keith Law on twitter about MVP race

[Mak]

Arguing with people that use "Bautista plays for 4th best team in division" argument.

http://twitter.com/#!/keithlaw

I think you misspelled "Jose Bautista." RT @manofthepeople: @keithlaw @buster_espn Thoughts on Curtis Granderson AL MVP.
6 hours ago

#tweetsfrom1987 RT @WordOnTheFarm: Jays are a 4th place team with Bautista, and a 4th place team without him. No value there.

keithlaw keithlaw
The whole "an MVP must come from a playoff team" line of thinking is so dated we should stuff it with a walnut and roll it in sugar

keithlaw keithlaw
Bautista turned them into a winning team! RT @Spooky__: Why do people keep referring to the Jays as a losing team? 65-62 begs to differ.

keithlaw keithlaw
Over seven wins above a replacement level player, including offense, defense, baserunning. RT @csjulien: what value does he provide? Explain

[Relentless88]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?nam ... id=6876480

Jose Bautista
He's leading the AL in on-base percentage and in slugging percentage, with giant margins in both categories, while playing adequate defense across two positions. His OBP is somewhat boosted by intentional walks, but without them he would still lead the league in OBP by 12 points. (Even without those intentional walks, his fWAR is still 7.0, tops in the AL.) He has been far and away the most valuable player in the league, and the only reason I can see that he's not getting his due as such is that he plays for a non-contender.

Because, let's face it, that's the real problem with Bautista's candidacy: For the voters still clinging to an outdated notion of value, there's nothing he could do to earn the MVP award while he plays on a non-playoff team. But where can the argument be? You can't even make a win-probability argument against him -- that is to say his performance hasn't directly resulted in wins -- because he's leading the AL in win probability added (WPA), which factors in the timing (inning, score) of offensive performance and credits the hitter with the change in the team's probability of winning the game. And he's not leading by a little bit -- his net WPA of 6.50 is nearly 50 percent higher than the second-highest figure, 4.39 by Miguel Cabrera. I don't advocate the use of WPA to determine the MVP because it's still context dependent, but if you care about context, it's a sound measure, and points to Bautista in a landslide.

[OldNo7]

Welcome to the right side of the fence Klaw. Too bad he is the same idiot who vilified Bautista's contract and power surge.

[youngLion]

Welcome to the right side of the fence Klaw. Too bad he is the same idiot who vilified Bautista's contract and power surge.

I don't think that was idiotic. There was a strong argument to be made that Bautista was having somewhat of a fluky season and didn't warrant a big money contract. With hindsight it's a great move, but at the time I think that what Law said was totally fair.

Besides this season KLaw has come around to be be one of Bautista's biggest supporters in the American media.

[Weems]

Yeah, Law's been doing this all season.

lol at the "Jays are a 4th place team with or without him" argument coming from Yankee and Red Sox fans.

[Homer Jay]

I think it really comes down to Bautista and Verlander. Both of their team's would be significantly poorer without their contributions. I personally think it should only go to a position player, but also realize that most don't see it that way too.

Delgado's 2000 season should of won the him the MVP. His OPS was higher than Giambi Juice and he had more HRs and RBIs too, but lost out because of the playoff argument.

[mikero]

Yeah, Law's been doing this all season.

lol at the "Jays are a 4th place team with or without him" argument coming from Yankee and Red Sox fans.

Yeah that argument is ridiculous.... the Red Sox and Yankees are still playoff teams without Pedroia/A. Gon/Ellsbury or Granderson.

[Schad]

Bautista leads the majors in WAR by a significant margin, and is on pace to hit 10 WAR for the year (exactly 10 WAR, actually). It will be shameful if he fails to win it, assuming that he doesn't go into a massive slump.

[Dr Positivity]

He will win it. Arguing by team results is dead. I mean Felix won the Cy Young last year

[tecumseh18]

Arguing by team results is dead.

Yeah, in the NBA I agree with the unofficial "50 win" rule that allowed Nash to beat Kobe a few years ago. But the NBA is a team game (and Nash personifies that) in a way baseball just isn't. Bats does help the Jays in unquantifiable ways (e.g. his work with Escobar and EE), but that's not gonna figure in. It's all about the stats, and he has them. Hell, arguably he's been slumping for the last six weeks, and he is still well in front.

But the Cy Young is a different award altogether. To go way back (even before my time), Steve Carlton obviously deserved the award in 1972 with his 27-10 record for the 59-97 Phillies. He had a league leading 1.97 ERA. With the Cy Young, team record has always been irrelevant.

[vaff87]

As much as I think he should, I highly doubt Bautista will win the MVP. All you hear about in terms of the AL MVP right now, is Granderson, Gonzalez and Ellsbury. We all know that if you plugged Bautista into the Red Sox or Yankees line up, he'd be the runaway winner though.

[Michael Bradley]

I would be very surprised if Bautista wins the MVP. He should, and MLB has made the right calls recently in terms of ignoring team success, but I doubt he will win it over Gonzalez.

[Alfred]

Arguing by team results is dead.

Yeah, in the NBA I agree with the unofficial "50 win" rule that allowed Nash to beat Kobe a few years ago. But the NBA is a team game (and Nash personifies that) in a way baseball just isn't. Bats does help the Jays in unquantifiable ways (e.g. his work with Escobar and EE), but that's not gonna figure in. It's all about the stats, and he has them. Hell, arguably he's been slumping for the last six weeks, and he is still well in front.

But the Cy Young is a different award altogether. To go way back (even before my time), Steve Carlton obviously deserved the award in 1972 with his 27-10 record for the 59-97 Phillies. He had a league leading 1.97 ERA. With the Cy Young, team record has always been irrelevant.

Well, with the Cy Young, you can directly look at the number of games that a pitcher has "won", rather than with an everyday player, who is partially responsible for every win or loss a team accrues while he's healthy and playing.

[tecumseh18]

Well, with the Cy Young, you can directly look at the number of games that a pitcher has "won", rather than with an everyday player, who is partially responsible for every win or loss a team accrues while he's healthy and playing.

Of course. I was just arguing that focusing on the individual and ignoring the team record was not a new phenomenon when it comes to doling out Cy Youngs. I didn't quote Mufasa's post in its entirety, but he seemed to imply that it was.

He will win it. Arguing by team results is dead. I mean Felix won the Cy Young last year

But with position players, the whole point of WAR and Bill James' life's work was to do exactly that, separate out how responsible the position player was for accumulated wins and losses. So I would think that in awarding MVPs to position players, team record should play less of a role now than before "nerd stats" came into their own.

[Avenger]

I would be very surprised if Bautista wins the MVP. He should, and MLB has made the right calls recently in terms of ignoring team success, but I doubt he will win it over Gonzalez.

I would have agreed with this about two weeks ago but Gonzalez is in a serious power slump and his numbers have fallen behind those of Pedroia and Ellsbury. According to traditional and saber stats, he's clearly the 3rd best player on his own team. I think those three will split votes and Bautista should be the run away winner IMO.

[Geddy]

The guys who vote on this stuff still are old fashioned coots and live by stats like AVG, HR, and RBI. I bet they are stupid enough to use his average and rbi as a knock against him, and ignore his other monstrous numbers.

[Skin Blues]

I would be very surprised if Bautista wins the MVP. He should, and MLB has made the right calls recently in terms of ignoring team success, but I doubt he will win it over Gonzalez.

I would have agreed with this about two weeks ago but Gonzalez is in a serious power slump and his numbers have fallen behind those of Pedroia and Ellsbury. According to traditional and saber stats, he's clearly the 3rd best player on his own team. I think those three will split votes and Bautista should be the run away winner IMO.

I think you're forgetting about the Grandy Man. Those HR/R/RBI/SB totals will be hard to ignore. CLearly he shouldn't be considered, and Bautista is the only logical choice, but still, I think it'll be Granderson.

[Parataxis]

The guys who vote on this stuff still are old fashioned coots and live by stats like AVG, HR, and RBI. I bet they are stupid enough to use his average and rbi as a knock against him, and ignore his other monstrous numbers.

Yeah, I mean a .330 average (before the slump) who's currently 6th in the AL for avg?

[Mak]

Welcome to the right side of the fence Klaw. Too bad he is the same idiot who vilified Bautista's contract and power surge.

I understood his argument at the time. Things like this rarely happen.