drza wrote:After DocMJ's post earlier (aside: Doc, you're 6-9? Really?)
Really. (ElGee, can I get a witness?).
Moderators: Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal
drza wrote:After DocMJ's post earlier (aside: Doc, you're 6-9? Really?)
ElGee wrote:All this negative talk about Hayes is a little nonsensical...his biggest flaw was shot selection; He was prone to taking a bad 18-footer once or twice a game, which hurt his efficiency. But do those shots, and subsequent small dent to the offense, nullify all the good he does (scoring, rebounding, good help defense)? No way. He was a top-10 player for many years, was he not?
Doctor MJ wrote:drza wrote:After DocMJ's post earlier (aside: Doc, you're 6-9? Really?)
Really. (ElGee, can I get a witness?).
drza wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:drza wrote:After DocMJ's post earlier (aside: Doc, you're 6-9? Really?)
Really. (ElGee, can I get a witness?).
Wow. Well, I'll bet I weigh more than you...so there. I might even have you in shoe size, though at 6-9 maybe not.
Doctor MJ wrote:Oh, one thing I will say though is it seems weird to me that TMac is already nominated and Iverson isn't. I'll take TMac's peak over Iverson any day, but that was basically one year. Their average efficiency is basically the same, both showed signs of struggling to make use of talent around them, both had issues with being a good leader, and Iverson played a lot more.
drza wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:drza wrote:After DocMJ's post earlier (aside: Doc, you're 6-9? Really?)
Really. (ElGee, can I get a witness?).
Wow. Well, I'll bet I weigh more than you...so there. I might even have you in shoe size, though at 6-9 maybe not.
ElGee wrote:Interesting observation. For me, as of now, I just see McGrady as having consistently better "other" seasons (besides the huge peak), and of course his 02-04 play (and even the second half of 05 maybe) was really quite excellent. I don't think there was a point in that stretch when I thought Pierce was better...maybe close at times (02 or 05), but despite the TS% numbers, McGrady was a borderline stud for many of those years.
I'm not sure Iverson's peak ever as valuable as Mac's "other" seasons, because McGrady could play better D/rebound better and arguably was a better creator on offense in a vacuum.
Nonetheless, it's an interesting comparison because BOTH of these guys have been historically underrated for all the typical reasons: bad teams, bad facial expressions, bad TS%. Ugh.
Iverson earned the only non-Shaq MVP vote in 2000 and won the MVP handily in 2001 (wrong on both accounts, but I'm referencing popular perception here). People act like he was a negative or a cancer. T-Mac had 3 top-8 MVP finishes...in Houston, and finished with 7 all-nba team nods.
It's fair to think perception was radically off, but I've never seen any significant evidence for that for either of these guys (faces, bad teammates and TS% are not evidence). If anything, my digging suggests they were underrated because of Losing Bias.
Your thoughts?
Doctor MJ wrote:drza wrote:
Wow. Well, I'll bet I weigh more than you...so there. I might even have you in shoe size, though at 6-9 maybe not.
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Well, weight 255 lb (not ripped though, with current level of muscle would be better if I were 235-ish), US shoe size 15.
drza wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:drza wrote:
Wow. Well, I'll bet I weigh more than you...so there. I might even have you in shoe size, though at 6-9 maybe not.
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Well, weight 255 lb (not ripped though, with current level of muscle would be better if I were 235-ish), US shoe size 15.
Ha! I knew it! 276 as of my last physical 2 months ago, baby! And all of it pure, home-grown out of shape man! You got me on the shoes by 1 size (US size 14), though once in high school my Uncle Wally gave me some hand-me-down 15.5s and I wore them for most of my senior year. That has to round up!
drza wrote:Silliness aside and on-topic, I find the entire swing man debate over Iverson, McGrady, Pierce, and even Carter to be fascinating. I agree that shooting efficiency has become more of a holy grail than it should be...my understanding is that the focus on scoring efficiency came from statisticians running regression analysis which shows that scoring efficiency has a correlation with winning. The thing is, "regression" and "correlation" both by definition indicate "estimate"...as in a general trend, not a written in stone law. Wilt and Dantley seem to be good examples of volume scoring at high efficiency that weren't as positive on team impact as they should be, and conversely I'd argue that TMac and Iverson have both become underrated due to it.
The question is, how much? And how to quantify their value, especially in the years before we have any +/- data?
It's an on-going question. All I know is, there were times when I believed (then) that Allen Iverson and/or Tracy McGrady were on the extremely short list for best players in the NBA. And, years later, after a boom in available advanced stats and another decade of basketball analysis, I still believe that, in fact, Iverson and McGrady did have those times of greatness...on a level that Pierce never actually achieved.
Pierce, too, has likely been underrated for a long time...on these boards people don't really put much stock in Dave Berri, but I remember years ago (definitely pre-Big Three era) when Berri wrote his Tragedy of Paul Pierce (found here: http://wagesofwins.net/2007/01/12/the-t ... ul-pierce/ ) that spoke of how underrated that he was and that, according to Wins Produced, he was very comparable with Kobe. And of course, as I've followed the Celtics pretty closely for the past 4 years, I've really watched intently to get a feel for how good he is. Before the '08 season I thought Ray Allen was better than Pierce, but at least in '08 Pierce certainly took on a more important role on the team. But the point is, I've been at the "Pierce is underrated due to team success" party for quite awhile now, and I've been looking hard at his advanced stats for years. So, and perhaps this is hubris on my part, but I really don't think that I'm in the camp that would be underrating Pierce. I feel like I've got a pretty good handle on his game, and what he can do.
I say all of the last paragraph as background to say that, despite all of that, I STILL just don't think that Pierce was ever quite as good as TMac at his best nor Iverson at his. And while I give Pierce credit for modifying his game a bit to play a different role on a championship team, I can't really use this as much of an advantage over TMac or Iverson just because they never got that opportunity.
Thus, bringing it back to the recent DocMJ/ElGee convo, I agree that it's somewhat surprising to see some of the current nominees in the pool before Iverson. Only, for me, I think the surprise is more that it's Pierce that's so clearly ahead of him in these rankings more-so than it being McGrady.
colts18 wrote:I would love to hear more about Dantley's ball stopping hurting the offense. he did have 9 .600+ TS% seasons in a row in his prime. Does it matter if he ballhogs, if he makes a shot and does it efficiently?
ElGee wrote:Theoretically, it's possible to average 50 ppg on over 1.000% TS and be one of the worst offensive players in the league.
TrueLAfan wrote:Well, I'd say Kobe. But the question is pointless. You can't just look at scoring in a vacuum and ignore the other effects of the person shooting the ball on pace, passing, chemistry, offensive style...so many different things.
Like most statistics, TS% is a relative term. Adrian Dantley is, perhaps, the best example of this and being a chemistry killer. (Okay...maybe second to Reggie Theus.) On paper, Dantley gets a decent amount of assist and scores with remarkable efficiency. AD is in the top 5 of all time in TS%, a remarkable achievement for a volume scoring G-F. But it doesn't matter. He was not nearly as good of a scorer as his numbers show.
We often forget the most valuable statistic. They're called "wins." If a player puts up fantastic numbers on a team that gets 30-35 wins, one of two things must be true.
1) The supporting cast is epically bad and might not win 20 games with an "average" player replacing the fantastic-numbers player.
2) The fantastic-numbers player is not really that valuable.
There is no #3. And #2 happens a lot. It's a good example of player value. A valuable player gets their team to win. His numbers are usually relevant to this...but, ultimately, they are secondary. The prime example for me is Kareem in 1977. Without him, the Lakers were truly lousy. They had no real point guard. Other than Kermit Washington--who played barely 1300 minutes in the season--they had no other low post defenders or scorers. Really, they didn't have much in the way of perimeter backcourt D either. The two decent players on the team other than Kareem were on the downhill slide and would be out of the league in two years or less. That team won 52 games. It's incredible. Put an "average" C on that team, and I'd be amazed if they won 30 games. Kareem was worth more than 20 wins that year; maybe 25. He was the MVP.
(This, incidentally, points out why MVP voting is generally good. People that dislike MVP voting often point out that players on sub-40 win teams rarely get into the top 3. That's because they shouldn't. If you're a top 3 player in the league, you should be making a 20-25 win team into a 40 win team. If that doesn't happen, the odds are that the player is not that valuable, despite great numbers.)
That #2 happened all the time with Dantley. Dantley's scoring never seemed to help his team much. When he was a "good" (18-22 ppg) scorer, teams didn't want him. When he was a "great" scorer, with Utah, the teams did poorly. When Dantley was hurt in his peak period, the teams did just as well without him. The 1981 Jazz without Dantley were probably better than the 1977 Lakers without Kareem. The Jazz had Darrell Griffith that year. They had Wayne Cooper and Allan Bristow, who were okay players (and were young and improving). They won 28 games. The next year they lost Cooper, but Rickey Green blossomed into a good player. They added Jeff Wilkins and Danny Schayes, who were okay out there. They dropped to 25 wins. The next year, Dantley was injured for most of the year, missing 60 games. The missing court time was taken up by a combination of John Drew and Jerry Eaves. The Jazz went up to 30 wins.
My conclusion is that Dantley's scoring--he averaged about 30 ppg while in Utah--was meaningless. His efficiency is irrelevant. His TS% is irrelevant. His scoring did not help his team. Looking at a "system," or counting possessions shows that you are spending a lot of time crunching numbers and not so many watching basketball. If you are scoring a lot of points to the detriment of the rest of your team, you are not ever going to be a great scorer. Efficient, possibly. High volume, certainly. but "good"--and I am thinking good means "something good comes from it"--no.
In that sense (which is a real world sense), Kobe Bryant's scoring is always better than Dantley's. Which is not to say that Kobe's scoring has always been "good" either. Personally, I am of the opinion that the 2005 Lakers were a decent team without Kobe. Plenty of talent there and a good coach. I think the chemistry of the team was horrible, and I think Kobe was the primary cause. His statistics in 2005 are really about the same as in 2004. But the 2004 Kobe was a better scorer. It's because his scoring helped his team more (even if the 2004 Lakers had chemistry issues, they did win 56 games and go to the finals).
Now, if we're trying to set this up as a "well, we're talking about pure scoring" or something like that...nonsense. Ridiculous. It's like asking how fast a car is in a laboratory rather than on a track. What's the point? Scoring is a function of offensive play; the byproduct of scoring and ultimate goal is victory. Adrian Dantley scored about the same amount of points of points per game as Kobe Bryant. He did it with less shots. Anyone who looks at those two statistics in a vacuum, out of the real world context, will try to argue that Dantley should be talked about with Kobe as a scorer, perhaps placed ahead. It's completely wrong. Dantley was the more efficient scorer. But that efficiency meant very, very little in the actual games. The better scorer was and is Kobe Bryant.