Arms of the future a huge letdown

[LittleOzzy]

Another September begins with no meaningful baseball to be played around here.

In ways, it is like the September of last year and the year before, a final month of optimism heading towards next year.

But with the Blue Jays, the future is never now, and the next year of our expectations always seems a year away.

This has been a summer of hope and stories, a summer of discovery for the Blue Jays. You may see the future through the eyes of Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus.

You can see it, if you squint hard enough and if you don't consider what this season was supposed to be about, and what hasn't been from the Blue Jays.

That is the easy part about selling optimism. The public tends to forget what it was you were selling in the first place. But if you dial back a few months, back to March, back to when the baseball publications were making predictions, what you quickly come to realize is what a season of regression this has been in what was supposed to be the Blue Jays' area of strength.

This was to be a team build around young arms, promising pitchers, the hope that next September games will factor in the standings for the team that calls Rogers Centre its home.

There was some talk that a young rotation of Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil would be the Blue Jays whittled-down version of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine. Or failing that, something along the lines of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito.

So what happened? Romero has taken a giant step forward this season: He has become the rock of the Jays rotation, the ace he was designed to be.

Romero has made 27 starts this season and by baseball's own definition of a quality start, he's made 21 of them. He won't win 20 games this year, but he's pitched well enough to be close.

The leap Romero made has been a false start for Morrow. Born the same year, looked at as a possible ace of the future, he is more about possibilities than he has been about performance.

The truth on Morrow: He pitched better last season than he has this year.

Maybe they'll make it back.

But maybe this is all it is right now.

In order to compete in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox, the Jays have to be better pitching-wise. They can't be 11th in earned-run average in the American League or 24th in all of baseball. They can't give up the fourth most hits or 3rd most walks or be 12th out of 14 teams in saves.

And while the everyday lineup has improved with Rasmus and Lawrie and the rejuvenated Edwin Encarnacion, the Jays can't hope to be a factor unless they upgrade their pitching staff significantly.

The arms they believed in for the future let them down this summer.

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/ ... 19956.html

[Schad]

First, this is hilariously-timed. Second, a few points:

- Yes, Drabek has had a terrible season. Such is life, especially when dealing with a kid who is more than a tad mercurial.

- Morrow hasn't regressed, unless you look at nothing but ERA. By xFIP, he has been just as good this year as last; by SIERA, he has been even better.

- There are definitely concerns with Cecil -- his high FB rate, mainly -- but he has been considerably better since his velocity returned. Definitely not the season many wanted, but he seems to be back to what he was before, and his seasonal totals are very much hampered by those five starts where he was without either confidence or fastball.

- Lastly: stop making **** up to further your argument, Simmons, you awful writer you. No one in their right mind ever compared Romero/Morrow/Cecil to **** Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz (or, apparently, a compromise position of merely the best rotation trio of the aughts, who carried a **** offense to 96 wins). Return the strawman back to yon ass from whence it came.

So in conclusion: three pitchers (Romero, Morrow and Cecil) were largely the same this year as last, and a rookie did what rookies sometimes do. But we also have one top prospect who seems to have hit the ground running, another intriguing one pitching well from the 'pen, and roughly four or five more in the minors who are quickly progressing. So unless he's the sole moron who was expecting the early '90s Braves staff, it's more 'slight shoulder shrug' than 'furious hand-wringing'.

[sonn]

Simmons should stick to hockey and write about nothing else.

[Relentless88]

Simmons should stick to hockey and write about nothing else.

I concur.

[OldNo7]

A huge lover of Morrow - Jonah Keri. Formerly of ESPN, now of Grantland.com

[Randle McMurphy]

Ozzy, you should have labeled the author somewhere. I'm definitely not going to read a Steve Simmons article.

[There There]

Simmons should stick to hockey and write about nothing else.

Simmons is the absolute worst this city has to offer... he shouldn't be allowed the opportunity to be writing about anything

[Wally West]

Why the hell is Simmons basing Morrow's season solely on his ERA? He's made leaps from last season and even though he may not be having the season most were hoping he'd have, he's gotten better and hopefully, he'll build on that the season after.

[Schad]

Why the hell is Simmons basing Morrow's season solely on his ERA?

Because he's a complete and utter hack. My mind is still seriously reeling that this article was based on the premise that they would or could, overnight, turn into Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz or Zito/Mulder/Hudson.

[sonn]

Here's something just as stupid from Simmons that was posted on DJF.

With apologies to Justin Verlander and Jose “I’m sure as hell not the same at home after that ESPN Mag sign-stealing story” Bautista, [Desmond] Jennings has been the best player in either league since Tampa brought him up.

http://www.drunkjaysfans.com/2011/08/to ... mmons.html

[J.Kim]

Here's something just as stupid from Simmons that was posted on DJF.

With apologies to Justin Verlander and Jose “I’m sure as hell not the same at home after that ESPN Mag sign-stealing story” Bautista, [Desmond] Jennings has been the best player in either league since Tampa brought him up.

http://www.drunkjaysfans.com/2011/08/to ... mmons.html

A different Simmons (Bill, to be exact), but still relevant nonetheless.

[Schad]

It pains me to say it, but Bill Simmons isn't off the mark about Jennings vs. Bautista/Verlander, which might be a first for him where objective fact is concerned. Jennings has produced 2.3 WAR over 36 games, or 0.63 per game. Bautista on the season has produced 0.65 WAR/game, and his OPS from July 23 (when Jennings was called up) is "only" .932, and thus his pace has slowed from his ridiculous opening month. Verlander's a little behind as well.

Now, the suggestion that the ESPN drivel has caused Bautista to fall apart is Grade-A Simmons bulls**t, but 50% is a passing grade.

[Hoopstarr]

Yea, Bill Simmons can eat a cockmeat sandwich but he's technically right about Jennings. A truth softened only by me having Jennings in my keeper league

[Ong_dynasty]

The problem I have with the rotation is based more on the feeling that we need a top of the order rotation, but have a lot of you pitchers with potential 3's and 4's, I would rather flip a few for one top one (Easier said than done I knw)

[augustine]

We need consistency in the rotation - but, lack of consistency is a mark of a young player. Coming into this season, with Boston's pitching coach at the healm, I would have bet that our hitting would be 11th and our pitching 4th, not vice versa.

[Graham's Cracker]

Great timing for this article. With an arm of the future twirling a dominant 3-hitter.

Unfortunate, newspapers in Toronto let hockey writers pen articles on baseball for their summer vacation. Really, how hard is it to do a little bit of research.

[YogiStewart]

Simmons should stick to hockey and write about nothing else.

Simmons is the absolute worst this city has to offer... he shouldn't be allowed the opportunity to be writing about anything

he's Marty York, but funnier

[TheBunk]

It's too bad Jonah Keri jumped ship to **** Grantland, Bill Simmons is hackiest of the hacks

[ATLTimekeeper]

The media is circulating the wagons to force a big move for them to applaud and then slowly rip.

I think the only disappointment is Drabek, but not entirely unexpected. Pitchers flame out all the time.

[LLJ]

Bautista has been "struggling" (if you can call it that) since after the All Star break IMO. No way did the ESPN sign stealing story start anything.