Time for Rogers to open vault to get Jays to next level

[Michael Bradley]

It's more likely that it takes four elite prospects to get Votto... Fielder only requires Rogers to open their pocket book, which they would have to do with Votto anyway in 2013 and beyond.

Votto may be more appealing despite the lost prospects because AA would have the opportunity to sign him long-term prior to him hitting free agency (if Votto is even willing to do that). With Fielder, AA would be paying free agent money, not arbitration + free agent money. Trading for Votto now probably saves the club some money in the long run if they could sign him before he tests free agency.

Votto is owed 17 million in 2013. You would have to presume he is not taking less on a long term deal, considering he is just entering his prime, so I don't think there is any substantial savings.

And to reiterate JR's point, the cost savings evaporates as soon as you figure in the loss of controlling up to four players who could potentially play key roles on this team.

I have no idea who Cincinnati would be interested in, but just about every one of our top prospects would be involved in the discussions, with the possible exception of d'Arnaud since the Reds already have Mesoraco ( unless they think it's worthwhile to take d'Arnuad and then flip either him or Mesoraco for other assets, which it probably would be )

I didn't realize Votto was signed to an extension this year. I thought he was still arbitration eligible. In that case, $17M in his final year does make it more risky to make the trade now. The Jays were able to sign Bautista at a reasonable price for two reasons; one being that no one had any idea what he would do long-term, and two because his expected arbitration salary was low enough that signing him to an extension at $14M was feasible. With Votto making $17M in his final season, you're right, it is going to take $20+ million to lock him up past that point. Basically, the Jays can get Fielder for the same price without giving up Gose, d'Arnaud, and whoever else Cincy would want for Votto.

Still, I would not hesitate to trade those prospects for Votto. He is worth it. Whether he is worth trading for over outright signing Fielder or Pujols is the question the Jays have to decide. I sincerely hope Pujols is a realistic option, but I have my doubts.

[CapeCrusader]

Understandable about how some people feel about not wanting to sign Fielder. While not saying just signing Fielder would solve all our problems (it won't), but it's more then a start in the right direction.

At this point I would only hope that (and believe) that AA and Rogers have come to an agreement about how much money Rogers intends to dish out. That being said, seems like the board is somewhat split on Fielder.

IMO a man like Fielder who gives you 35+ HR a season, 100+ RBI's a season would be a huge plus for this organization.

- A 3-4 spot in the line up of Bautista and Fielder is deadly (reminds me of Manny and Papi)
- Ticket sales will go up big time
- It would also attract more players down the line to being open to join the Jays.

[Morris_Shatford]

My highly casual fan opinion would be that the Jay's need a top end closer; as well as a 1A Ace in the rotation. The Jays seem to have a lot of guys coming up, but having someone parked at the top of the rotation who is already an ace coupled with the kids developing behind him would be sweet.

As for Votto;
That could be interesting.

[Parthenon]

Jannsen as closer, he's been reliable for years.

Call-up and sign whoever you need to fill in the rest of the blanks.

Votto is the DH/1B that we need.

Fielder/Pujols as alternatives.

[dagger]

The point you are missing is really way too obvious. If you are holding your breath and wanting to stay around a league low payroll while continually improving the team and filling holes, I would start writing that will.

Also more importantly bautista is in his prime and its completely unknown for how many years he can keep this up. Escobar is entering his prime as well. If our best players were 24 I would understand where some people are coming from, with this current team its ridiculous.

As far as your opinion on Fielder being a bust, and this team having a "decent chunk of holes" left, lets just agree to disagree. Edit: Although regarding the holes left, I would agree with you alot more if we cleaned out our farm to acquire 1 player, instead of simply spending $. Otherwise the team is in a great position.

Whether it's by trading for an elite player or preferably, getting one through free agency, it has to start now. Now, I'm not naive as to think the Jays are high on players' lists of destinations - it's more by virtue of being perennial 3-5 finishers in a tough division. But if the Jays don't start flaunting top dollar now, i.e. this winter, then they won't attract the right candidate when they are really ready to contend. You have to plant the seed that you have serious folding money to spend, and that someone will take it. We at least have to get free agents thinking, "Why not Toronto?" instead of "Why Toronto?" which might be the case with a lot of them right now. I'm not afraid of being turned down after making a top-dollar offer to a legit tier 1 FA. Let's get known again as a spender.

As for hoarding prospects, if you can get a Votto for prospects, it has to be considered. Not just any trade, but certainly one that ventures into risk-taking territory.

Here's the rub: Prospects alone aren't going to do it for us, unless we're planning to start contending in 2020.

There are four playoff spots now, maybe five next season.

By definition, we have to be at least third in our division to have a shot at a playoff spot, and given the number of times we play the Yankees and Red Sox, we have to be able to beat them at least 50% of the time to have an outside shot at a playoff spot. This season, we're .333 against the three teams ahead of us. So we're not very close, are we?

Moreover, the teams ahead of us aren't going to step aside for us. The Yankees and Red Sox not only spend like drunken sailors, they also develop good young talent, too. Look at Montero and Nova. Nova killed us the other day. So it's not like we can assume we will pass those teams based on player development alone. They have their top prospects, and will fill holes through FA and trades. Then there are the Rays who aren't the big spenders, but have a marvellous farm system. They not on;y draft well, they develop well. And the Rays - like the Red Sox and Yankees - have an experienced and highly capable manager. Maybe Farrell will grow into the job, but we have the least experienced field boss of any team in our division.

So yes, it's very much time for Rogers to spend. There are no excuses except cheapness. I'm willing to give them some latitude if they at least offer top dollar to a Reyes, Fielder or Pujols. Serious top dollar offers will help us build some cred. But if they hide behind player development for one more year, I'll be grateful for the Olympics next summer so I am not tempted to watch another fourth place finish by the Jays.

[number15]

i disagree

you open the vault when you have the other pieces in place...... If the Jays were a decent club with a chance to compete with a few additions via "opening the vault", then great.

However, the Jays are far from that stage yet..... What do you expect AA to do. He cant open the vault and practically get a new expensive addition at almost every position on the field.

so far we have, 1 soild starter, 2 solid relievers, 2 dependable hitters and 1 star prospect.... thats not enough to open the vault, sorry

makes no sense yet.... maybe one more year to develop from within is better

[BigLeagueChew]

If AA wants Pujols , you can't wait another year to open the vault because this might be the last chance you have to sign him. By signing him you also attract other free agents, with a duo of Bautista / Pujols; that would be the best 3rd/4th hitters in the league.

You would think some free agents out there want to play here with Bautista and our young players but if they need extra incentive, overpaying for Pujols would get it done. If there was a player in the mlb I would overpay for it would be him.

Throwing money at a player like Reyes would be risky though, he's hurt often and only has a good year in his contract years so far.

[Skin Blues]

1 solid starter? 2 dependable hitters? Open yer eyes, man. The Jays are close to contending, and a big bat would put them on the cusp. The only weaknesses on the field are the two easiest spots to fill; LF and DH. To just leave them in the hands of E5/Thames/Snider again would be a mistake, although there is potential there. The rotation is iffy, although Henderson Alvarez is a nice surprise to contrast the disappointments of Cecil and Drabek. Wouldn't be the worst thing to go out and grab Wandy and/or CJ Wilson. The bullpen will sort itself out. Relievers are too unpredictable to put too much emphasis on. Every year there are dozens of nobodies that emerge as bullpen aces, and just about as many bullpen aces that become nobodies.

[TR50]

All I know, is that this offseason is looking like it will be very exciting, especially for Blue Jay fans.

Really hope AA's keeps his thinking cap on and surprises us all with some more brilliant moves.

[dagger]

i disagree

you open the vault when you have the other pieces in place......maybe one more year to develop from within is better

Then next year when we finish fourth again, it will be the same ...maybe one more year.

Nadir Mohammed should give you a discount on Rogers' services because you are willing to protect his bonus so carefully.

I'm sorry. It's time to get one with it. If a Pujols or Reyes will come here, so be it. Loosen up the vice-grip on the wallet. Others will follow, and top prospects can be folded into the lineup around them.

[Chevy Chase]

i disagree

you open the vault when you have the other pieces in place......maybe one more year to develop from within is better

Then next year when we finish fourth again, it will be the same ...maybe one more year.

Nadir Mohammed should give you a discount on Rogers' services because you are willing to protect his bonus so carefully.

I'm sorry. It's time to get one with it. If a Pujols or Reyes will come here, so be it. Loosen up the vice-grip on the wallet. Others will follow, and top prospects can be folded into the lineup around them.

Not to derail the thread, but this is how I've felt about the Raptors as well. All this talk about going over the lux tax is just that: talk. Big time FA won't look at your team if they think that you will only break open the bank when you get close. Smart agents will tell their clients that you need to spend (or get very lucky) to even get to that level where spending a little more will take you over the top.

By spending money you show that your team is getting off the treadmill and making a play. We need to spend money this offseason and then, spend again next offseason.

Spend money now, and if it pays off, then you can justify trading in the farm system for the last few pieces. Better than trading in the farm now, and spending money if it works. In the first senario if things don't work out all you've done is waste money, but in the second senario you've destroyed the future and probably need to spend the money anyways just to quiet the hord.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Agents are mostly interested in getting their clients high salaries. I think possibility of contention is down the list.

I keep flip flopping, but staggering your moves over a few seasons is probably a good idea for a young team like this. Instead of breaking the bank and farm to go all in for next year and putting a lot of pressure on our relatively unproven talent I think it'd be a good idea to make one big deal in this off-season (either for a starter or bat) and then sell the farm for the following year.

WIth the potential 5th playoff spot, it's possible that we could compete for it with one big move this year + improvement from the youngsters already on the team. Even if we're in contention for the spot it will still generate enthusiasm in the city. Plus, it'll give us another year to assess the quality of our pitching depth.

[Hendrix]

Fielder's racked up WAR at the same rate as Kelly Johnson, is projected to become even less valuable in the future, and we should throw 200 million at him? I don't think so.

The Red Sox just threw 154 million at Gonzalez, whose career WAR basically amounts to .7 a year more than Fielder.

To me, these differences are not enough to justify not going hard after Fielder. Especially considering the vast upgrade Fielder would be providing this team when you consider it's current options.

Gonzalez is a better buy imo. Spending big money is the Sox, and Yanks "game" so to speak. There's nothing wrong with that game, but we can't win that game straight up as we arn't goiong to be spending as much as them. We need to spend more efficiently if we want to beat them, and I simply don't think Fielder at $200mm is in line with that kind of thinking.

I fully understand that we need to start spending some cash while we have a good core of guys. But imo it shouldn't be like this. I don't think the production, or future projection of Prince's stats make it a good buy for us.

What about simply platooning guys like Lind and Encarncion at 1b? Lind, and EE are .844ops guys against opposite handed pitchers. If the expected value off a Lind/EE platoon at 1b was .844ops with better defense then Prince would it be worth paying that money to up the 1b production .080 ops, or would the $200mm be better ustilized elsewhere?

[Avenger]

Yeah, i'd rather look into an EE and Lind platoon than throw 200 million at a guy that is very likely to fall off the cliff at a young age. That money would be better spent on Darvish, resigning Kelly Johnson and other guys on 1 year deals, like an Edwin Jackson.

[jrsmith]

Yeah, i'd rather look into an EE and Lind platoon than throw 200 million at a guy that is very likely to fall off the cliff at a young age. That money would be better spent on Darvish, resigning Kelly Johnson and other guys on 1 year deals, like an Edwin Jackson.

Nice... Not even close to making the playoffs in the AL East. And another year of Bautista in the gutter.

Im totally on board though, as long as Rogers that virtually spends nothing year in year out doesnt take a risk. I mean yea signing Fielder wouldnt even bring this teams budget over 100mil so it would still have aton of flexibility... but yea no... 2 scrubs like Lind/E5 backing bautista up and sharing 1st base in the AL East definitely sounds awesome.

Better yet lets skip all the FAs this year, we need 1 more year of development. And then the year after that we will be in a super duper position and get the best totally elite FAs!!! Actually I dont know the FAs that year might not work out... but trust me 3 years from now. Book it.

[Relentless88]

Yeah, i'd rather look into an EE and Lind platoon than throw 200 million at a guy that is very likely to fall off the cliff at a young age. That money would be better spent on Darvish, resigning Kelly Johnson and other guys on 1 year deals, like an Edwin Jackson.

We'll never be able to contend in the AL East with EE/Lind at 1B.

[TR50]

I have a feeling that Avengers post may have been sarcastic.

Just for kicks, if I were asked though, which of the following:

A year of Lind at 1B
A year of EE at 1B
A year of Lind/EE at 1B (50/50)
A year for Prince Fielder at 1B (200 Million or so)

I know which one I like best.

[Avenger]

I have a feeling that Avengers post may have been sarcastic.

Why would it be? A Lind/E5 platoon will give you roughly league average production at 1B, you don't have to a superstar there to take down the Yankees and Red Sox, what you need is a beter overall team and we're not gonna be that with Prince Fielder alone.

I want Rogers to open up their wallets more than anyone here, they also have to do it smartly. Throwing bad conracts isn't just bad business, it also hurts the onfield product. Managers and GM's feel the need to play certain guys simply because they make a lot of money and teams are reluctant to getting rid of dead weight(see Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Adam Dunn, Scott Kazmir etc etc).

Throwing money at the players i mentioned will cost more than Fielder but it will give you a much better return.

[Avenger]

I have a feeling that Avengers post may have been sarcastic.

Just for kicks, if I were asked though, which of the following:

A year of Lind at 1B
A year of EE at 1B
A year of Lind/EE at 1B (50/50)
A year for Prince Fielder at 1B (200 Million or so)

I know which one I like best.

too bad what i really said was

A year for Prince Fielder at 1B (200 Million or so)

OR

A year of Lind/EE at 1B (50/50) AND Yu Darvish, Kelly Johnson and Edwin Jackson(and probably a top notch bullpen) for roughly 200 million combined

[Weems]

Well, that scenario (Darvish, Johnson, Jackson) would be much more valuable than Fielder alone. Not to say that's a reasonable scenario or anything.

A rotation of Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Cecil, Perez/McGowan/Drabek/other prospects could easily be mocked at this point too.