RealGM Top 100 #35

[Fencer reregistered]

I thought I posted this before, but anyhow:

Vote: Pierce
Nominate: Cousy

[Lever2Beaver]

I thought I posted this before, but anyhow:

Vote: Pierce
Nominate: Cousy

Pierce ahead of Cousy is a spectacular mistake
Surely Celtic legends rolling over in their graves.

[drza]

Case for Manu Ginobili

Again, at the risk of pimpin my man Sidney, you have to show Manu had a better game since he doesn't have the longevity advantage of a Reggie Miller/Alex English type (and played less minutes per game besides).

This actually provided a great medium for me introducing Manu here, as it lets us compare him to someone that makes a really good contemporary. Squid had his 5-year peak, Manu is working on 7 years now of elite-caliber play (2005 - 2011). So, let's take a closer look.

First, the box score stats (averaged over Squid's 5 years and Manu's 7 years):

Code: Select all

        mpg   Pace   Total   PPG   %Pts   TS%  Ast%   RPG%   Stl%   PER   WS48
Manu   28.8   89.8   98.3   16.6   16.9   0.60  24.6   8.5   2.8   22.9   0.22
Squid  36.9   99.7   109.2  21.0   19.3   0.59  18.3   10.3  2.0   20.5   0.21


As you would expect, Manu's weakness is in minutes played. But once you adjust for the fact that the '80s Bucks were scoring a lot more points at a much higher pace than the '00s Spurs, we see that in fact Manu was scoring almost 17% of the Spurs' points vs Squid's 19% of the Bucks...not much difference in volume at all, considering Manu had a higher assist percentage. Both are high efficiency scorers per possession used, but Manu was producing offense more efficiently per minute played, and thus despite Squid playing more than 8 more minutes per game their net offensive volume per game was very similar according to the box scores.

Next, we go to defense, where Squid has a big advantage against just about every wing he is compared to. And while I'll take nothing away from a 2-time DPoY, I WILL say that Manu is a beastly wing defender in his own right. I think the consensus would be that he is good defensively, but when you look further into it he measures out at the top of his generation among wing defenders.

According to Ilardi's 6-year APM calculation ('04 - '09), the top-7 big minute wing defenders:
Ron Artest (5.09)
Shane Battier (3.92)
Thabo Sefolosha (3.75)
Andrei Kirilenko (3.51)
Manu Ginobili (3.24)
Tony Allen (3.23)
Bruce Bowen (2.95)

Englemann has a similar calculation from '06 - '11, and Ginobili is still in the top-10 among big minute wings in defensive APM (Deng, Tony Allen, Ronnie Brewer, LeBron, G. Wallace, Artest, Mbah a Moute, Iguodala, Lowry, Manu).

Sniff-test wise, this is a veritable who's who of the best defensive wings of the last decade. And the only defenders on both lists were Artest, Manu and Tony Allen. Manu is long, quick and awkward as a defender which serves him in good stead. He can defend from PG up to SF, is extremely aggressive, and has quick hands that let him get both steals and blocks on-ball without having to overextend and take risks. Again, I have no problem saying Squid gets the benefit of the doubt on defense compared to just about any wing we've ever seen, but Manu is at least holding his own here.

Impact I'll be referencing APM results here, so obviously this section will again be more pro-Manu than anti-Squid (since we don't have any Squid-related data points). But according to the various APM studies, Manu has been at the very top of the NBA in terms of impact for the 2000s.

Ilardi's '04 - '09: Manu +8.2 (3rd overall, behind KG and LeBron and slightly ahead of Duncan and Wade to round out the top-5)

Englemann's '06 - '11: Manu +7.6 (5th overall, behind LeBron, Dirk, KG, Nash)

Manu's single year RAPM since '05:
2005 KG, Duncan, Shaq, Kidd, Dirk, Manu
2006 Duncan, KG, Dirk, Shaq, Manu
2007 Manu, Duncan, LeBron, Baron, KG, Nash
2008 Manu, KG, Nash, LeBron, Duncan
2009 LeBron, KG, Kobe, Nash, Manu
2010 LeBron, Wade, Nash, Kobe, KG, Manu, Howard
2011 Dirk, Manu, KG, Nick Collison, Paul, Howard

A few things stand out to me. First, in the two different/overlapping multi-year APM measures that encompass the last 8 years, we see Manu in the top-5 of both lists next to a total of 6 players that we have long-since voted onto this list. Manu, LeBron and KG are the only 3 in the top-5 of both lists.

Next, when going through the yearly RAPM results, we see that Manu's impact has been rock-solid consistent for 7 straight years now. During that time period he never finishes lower than 6th in any season, finishes with the top mark overall twice, and is second in another season. Plus, look at the sniff test of that yearly list...only Nick Collison stands out as a fluke 1-year appearance from a role-player slot. Everyone else that makes this list even once were considered beasts that season with most of them annually in the MVP vote. And Manu is on the list all 7 years. Also of note, in 3 of those 7 seasons Manu was a full-time starter.

Bottom line: When separating into offense and defense, we see that Manu in his 7 years is very comparable to Squid in his 5 despite Manu playing fewer minutes. And impactwise, though we can't easily compare Manu directly to Squid, we CAN compare Manu directly to his peers and see that the only people even comparable to Manu in APM from his generation are the consensus BEST of the 2000s who have all long-since been voted onto our list. Manu has been a contributor to 3 title teams, including 2 as a huge cog and one in which he VERY arguably could have been both the postseason and Finals MVP for the Spurs (2005). I understand docking Manu for being a 30 mpg guy instead of a 38 mpg guy and his injury issues that have cost him games several seasons...but for me that penalty is just about covered. When he's on the court, Manu is one of the best players of his generation and it's translated to big-time team results. It's time that we seriously start thinking about slotting this guy in.

[penbeast0]

Good Post . . . and yes, he is almost as good offensively and defensively as Moncrief . . . so after we slot the Squid, let's start looking at Manu v. Chris Paul and the like

(longevity guys Reggie Miller, Alex English, Ray Allen and the like should go up soon too)

Problem is that superstar talent is a bell curse. We are out of the extreme end where there are only a few names and there are probably 25-30 guys who have legit arguments for the next slot (and twice that if we realize that other posters have other criteria)

[Lever2Beaver]

Only about 100 spots early for Manu
What about Zan Tabak he should be nominated soon...

[FJS]

Vote: Gervin
Nominate: Allen Iverson

[ElGee]

@Beast, What about 2007, 2009, and 2011 from Paul (even 2010)? As I've said, his basketballvalue APM for the last 2 years is 4th in the league. He was 4th using Ilardi's 03-09 weighting. He's 6th in Engelmann's 10-year rankings...

Not to mention the fairly obvious eye test, box stats, and team results I posted for 08, 09 and 11. His 07 season was clearly AS level and his 10 season is interpretable depending on how one weighs or injuries or how much he had in the thank if there were a PS to play. That's 5 years...

--

There are players that need mention before Manu IMO. Bob Lanier is coming up for me. He was an excellent offensive center, often battled toe-to-toe with the other premier bigs of his time, and I don't see his defense as being nearly as bad as some make it out to be.

Three more that haven't been mentioned that I have above Manu are Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway and Sam Jones. We'll get to them.

And of course, ahead of Manu and Moncrief I have Marques Johnson. Yes, I've been waiting all summer, but it is almost time for the Marques Johnson argument. http://www.backpicks.com/2011/01/04/mar ... the-muoat/

[TMACFORMVP]

Vote: George Gervin
Nominate: Kevin Johnson

Damn, missed the past couple of threads. Have no idea who I want for the nomination, I'm glad some of the 70's big men have been nominated in, though little surprised to see McAdoo lose some of that steam he had earlier. Mourning, and Reed are candidates as well. I'm also on the Iverson bandwagon, his faults are clear, but his impact was felt. I get the CP3/KJ arguments; and similarly with Moncrief as well.

One thing about KJ that I feel often gets under-looked is the sort of team success the Suns had pre-Barkley years. It seems to me sometimes people often associate he and Barkley being a duo leading the Suns to success when they were just a mediocre team before. But the Suns won 53+ games four seasons in a row, including two WCF Finals births before Barkley joined them. In those years for the most part, the Suns ranked in the top 3 in ORTG (including being in the top 10 in DRTG). The only year they were really upset in the playoffs was in '91, and that's because KJ was playing with a hamstring(?) injury in that series which tremendously affected his play. Otherwise he's been a terrific playoff performer as well. In 1990, Magic famously scored back to back 40 point games in losing efforts of the WCSF, but KJ was amazing in those games as well, including dominating the end of the G4, including a clutch FT near the end of G1.

G4: 30 points, 16 assists (11 points in the final 10 minutes)
G5: 37 points, 8 assists on 14/23

He has 5 peak seasons at a level of 20/10 PG play on very good efficiency on 50+ win teams, along with 2-3ish more seasons of very solid PG play. In '93 versus that series against San Antonio, it's arguable KJ was the x-factor for that series, DRob/Barkley played nearly even; while KJ poured in a 6 game series average of 21/9 on 53%.

therealbig3 also had some nice points as well.

I like Paul's 2 season peak more, because he's slightly more efficient with the ball, and something I still marvel at when I watch him play is how he controls the tempo of the game (and that's the pressing argument I'd consider in a comparison with he and Moncrief offensively). I mean, these guys do that at a high level also, but Paul is just a master at that. Saying that, I don't how much he differentiates that peak with a guy like KJ, and his extra years probably count for a bit more.

I'm still evaluating the big men v. KJ, was initially going to post without a nomination, but I'll tentatively give KJ my nomination.

[Dr Positivity]

One point about Cousy, though I'm not nominating him yet - After watching his last non Cinci game in full (G6 of the 63 Finals), I did come off more impressed by him athletically than I thought, and this was when he was old. He was as explosive and fast as young West. I think it's reasonable to say he'd be one of the fastest PGs even today. The jumpshot is the major issue here IMO, not his athleticism not holding up. I have a hard time considering him a better player than KJ or Iverson still, at this moment

[Dr Positivity]

I'm leaning Willis Reed for the nomination, though I have zero issue with changing it to McAdoo, KJ, Hill or English. I'm willing to give Reed the benefit of the doubt because of how important a dominant C is, in comparison to those guys.

I've voted Pierce for 4-5 threads

So for now

Vote Pierce

Nominate Reed

[Dr Positivity]

Manu is definitely below Pau for me. Among others, but I can't put him over Gasol at the least. Gasol has proved more to me as both a #1 and #2.

[Dr Positivity]

Vote: George Gervin
Nominate: Kevin Johnson

Damn, missed the past couple of threads. Have no idea who I want for the nomination, I'm glad some of the 70's big men have been nominated in, though little surprised to see McAdoo lose some of that steam he had earlier. Mourning, and Reed are candidates as well. I'm also on the Iverson bandwagon, his faults are clear, but his impact was felt. I get the CP3/KJ arguments; and similarly with Moncrief as well.

One thing about KJ that I feel often gets under-looked is the sort of team success the Suns had pre-Barkley years. It seems to me sometimes people often associate he and Barkley being a duo leading the Suns to success when they were just a mediocre team before. But the Suns won 53+ games four seasons in a row, including two WCF Finals births before Barkley joined them. In those years for the most part, the Suns ranked in the top 3 in ORTG (including being in the top 10 in DRTG). The only year they were really upset in the playoffs was in '91, and that's because KJ was playing with a hamstring(?) injury in that series which tremendously affected his play. Otherwise he's been a terrific playoff performer as well. In 1990, Magic famously scored back to back 40 point games in losing efforts of the WCSF, but KJ was amazing in those games as well, including dominating the end of the G4, including a clutch FT near the end of G1.

G4: 30 points, 16 assists (11 points in the final 10 minutes)
G5: 37 points, 8 assists on 14/23

He has 5 peak seasons at a level of 20/10 PG play on very good efficiency on 50+ win teams, along with 2-3ish more seasons of very solid PG play. In '93 versus that series against San Antonio, it's arguable KJ was the x-factor for that series, DRob/Barkley played nearly even; while KJ poured in a 6 game series average of 21/9 on 53%.

therealbig3 also had some nice points as well.

I like Paul's 2 season peak more, because he's slightly more efficient with the ball, and something I still marvel at when I watch him play is how he controls the tempo of the game (and that's the pressing argument I'd consider in a comparison with he and Moncrief offensively). I mean, these guys do that at a high level also, but Paul is just a master at that. Saying that, I don't how much he differentiates that peak with a guy like KJ, and his extra years probably count for a bit more.

I'm still evaluating the big men v. KJ, was initially going to post without a nomination, but I'll tentatively give KJ my nomination.

Good points as always

I consider KJ vs Paul to be pretty close to a no brainer. And I'm not even nominating KJ yet

[therealbig3]

My count so far:

Vote:

Gervin-5 (Snakebites, ElGee, DavidStern, FJS, TMACFORMVP)

Pierce-3 (Fencer reregistered, therealbig3, Dr Mufasa)

Dominique-1 (JordansBulls)

McGrady-1 (ronnymac2)

Kidd-1 (drza)

D12-1 (penbeast0)



Nomination:

Iverson-4 (JordansBulls, ronnymac2, DavidStern, FJS)

KJ-2 (therealbig3, TMACFORMVP)

Moncrief-1 (penbeast0)

Miller-1 (mysticbb)

Mourning-1 (Snakebites)

Cousy-1 (Fencer reregistered)

Paul-1 (ElGee)

Reed-1 (Dr Mufasa)

[Fencer reregistered]

At some point we're going to have a Dwight vs. McHale discussion.

Who do you guys think achieved his efficiency in the face of more regular double-teams? It's natural to say "The one who didn't play next to Bird", but from the eye test I don't think that's actually true, even when starting line-ups were on the court.

[penbeast0]

@Beast, What about 2007, 2009, and 2011 from Paul (even 2010)? As I've said, his basketballvalue APM for the last 2 years is 4th in the league. He was 4th using Ilardi's 03-09 weighting. He's 6th in Engelmann's 10-year rankings...

Not to mention the fairly obvious eye test, box stats, and team results I posted for 08, 09 and 11. His 07 season was clearly AS level and his 10 season is interpretable depending on how one weighs or injuries or how much he had in the thank if there were a PS to play. That's 5 years...

--

There are players that need mention before Manu IMO. Bob Lanier is coming up for me. He was an excellent offensive center, often battled toe-to-toe with the other premier bigs of his time, and I don't see his defense as being nearly as bad as some make it out to be.

Three more that haven't been mentioned that I have above Manu are Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway and Sam Jones. We'll get to them.

And of course, ahead of Manu and Moncrief I have Marques Johnson. Yes, I've been waiting all summer, but it is almost time for the Marques Johnson argument. http://www.backpicks.com/2011/01/04/mar ... the-muoat/

Watching them, I was always more impressed with Sid though Marques was very good -- he just didn't stand out from the crowd in the greatest era ever for SFs (Bird, English, King, Dantley, Nique, Aquiree, Worthy, etc. etc.). . . that and their offense actually improved when Marques went to the Clippers. Moncrief just impressed me because I would see great players come in averaging 20ppg and they would end up 3/15 for 11 points or something more regularly than with any other defender I've ever seen. He was the guy that put the hell into Nolan Richardson's 40 minutes of Hell concept (with Alvin Robertson who came in next); just a scary man defender.

[Fencer reregistered]

Looking to guys who had at least half as many assists as Cousy in 1959-60, I now do find a couple with better scoring efficiency, namely Richie Guerin (who played a somewhat comparable position) and Tom Gola (who didn't). They're competitive with Cousy in win shares, too. But Cousy beats them soundly in accolades.

That's the last year Cousy led the league in assists. After that Oscar Robertson took over, and Guy Rodgers was second. Oscar is of course way ahead of Cousy on our list, and Rodgers didn't seem to have any statistical advantage over Cooz. Rodgers also didn't get any noticeable accolades.

[lorak]

One point about Cousy, though I'm not nominating him yet - After watching his last non Cinci game in full (G6 of the 63 Finals), I did come off more impressed by him athletically than I thought, and this was when he was old. He was as explosive and fast as young West. I think it's reasonable to say he'd be one of the fastest PGs even today. The jumpshot is the major issue here IMO, not his athleticism not holding up.

I also watched the game too and had the same impression about Cousy.

As for Manu he is top5 all time SG on my list and he definitely should be over Gilmore (Moncrief, Marques or Lanier, should be over Artis too).

[drza]

Manu is definitely below Pau for me. Among others, but I can't put him over Gasol at the least. Gasol has proved more to me as both a #1 and #2.

I've got no problem with Pau getting into the mix now. He's another great player that has been overshadowed by a brilliant teammate. I think both Manu and Pau should be making their way onto the list in the near future.

[Fencer reregistered]

I think Iverson over Cousy would be a travesty, even though between the two Iverson was the more skillful scorer -- in absolute terms, at least; relative to their respective eras, I'm not so sure Iverson was.

As I've argued above, Cousy has some of the most awesome intangibles ever. Iverson, however, is the guy who publicly assailed the concept of practice.

[drza]

At some point we're going to have a Dwight vs. McHale discussion.

Who do you guys think achieved his efficiency in the face of more regular double-teams? It's natural to say "The one who didn't play next to Bird", but from the eye test I don't think that's actually true, even when starting line-ups were on the court.

Why not kick it off? I've seen you argue Mchale's impact before, but I think you'd have to make a pretty strong case to overcome the defensive and rebounding advantages that Howard brings. Mchale was a very good defender in his own right, but my current feel is that Howard's ability to help-defend is much greater than Mchale's defensive versatility. And offensively, seemingly Howard has been playing a more central role on the Magic than Mchale did for the Celtics. But this is my current thought. I'd be interested in seeing that fleshed out, maybe learning something to change my mind.

Another, perhaps more interesting debate to me, is Mchale vs the swingmen. It is my stance that Howard has already reached a higher level than them, with the only question being longevity. If your stance (and I hope I'm not putting words in your mouth) is that Mchale may be better than Dwight, and Mchale actually does have a full career under his belt, how do you see him matching up with the McGrday, Pierce, Nique and Gervin crew? Both stylistically, and in terms of impact?