91-98 Keeper Playoffs (START JUDGING)

[bryant08]

My votes:

TMAC, MJ, SamBone
Cellar, Luke, BI
War, Kees, Snake

Apologies for half-arseing this too, just busy getting settled in for the school year.

[CellarDoor]

Alright, TMAC's on me to vote btw he and MJ.

I believe Sam's team is being undersold here, but that doesn't appear to be an issue, so onto the other match-up.

Looking at the teams and all else being equal, I'd go MJ. His write-up doesn't address much of anything though in terms of TMAC's assertions. TMAC gets out of a tough bracket here.

TMAC 2-0

[RR9]

In TMAC vs MJALLDAY, I vote for TMAC because his backcourt presents a perfect offensive/defensive combination, Wilkins is just lights out shaq is the best center in history imo. he's so big and unguardable, whoever it was! barkley wreaks havoc for sure, but i don't see enough defense from MJ to stop TMac's offense. and Tmac's defense (Dumars/perkins/shaq) is quite a lockdown.

Winner: TMAC

[TMACFORMVP]

I was hoping for a little more, but I guess that wraps it up.

Second round begins.
Cellar v. bryant
me v. Warspite

[CellarDoor]

Cellardoor Fighting Gremzes
Penny(28)/Smith(20)
Hawkins(24)/Penny(12)/Hill(12)
Hill(28)/Kukoc(20)
Nance(32)/Davis(10)/Horry(6)
Hakeem(40)/Nance(8)
vs.
Bryant08
Stockton/Skiles
Reggie/Majerle
Johnson/Majerle/Mason
Grant/Mason/Mckey
Drob/Big Z

Offense:
Triple H, as always. Hakeem, Penny, and Hill. In general they don’t get stopped, and I don’t expect any different here. Stockton doesn’t have the luxury of begging off of Penny like most PGs would do unless you want Reggie expending his energy defending him rather than running around screens. Hill is too crafty and too quick for Johnson. I really can’t figure out their head to head numbers. Neither scored well, but LJ the combo forward may have been guarded by others and been guarding others. The number of times Hill got to the line vs. Hill’s fouls a game supports this. If LJ was on him, then he was routinely getting beat and Hill was running into Mourning/Ewing. Hopefully DRob is stupid enough to help onto the terrific point forward. Hakeem…well, Hakeem and DRob’s playoff bout has been discussed ad museum, you all know how that story ends. Nance and Hawkins’ capabilities on offense will leave Miller and Grant in a tough spot trying to help onto any of the three superstars without giving up 3s, midrange jumpers, or finishes to a cutting Nance. Our main reserves, smith and Kukoc along with Davis and Horry offer tough D at their positions, great shooting from three of them, and in most cases a mismatch in either size or speed while my opponent won’t be able to exploit them.


Defense:
Bryant’s offense is actually a thing of beauty. The idea of a DRob/Stockton PnR with Reggie trying to find seams to get shots is intriguing. HoGr can also run the PnR with Stockton effectively imo. The problem for their offense is I have perhaps the greatest PnR defending big of all time in terms of recovering after showing on the little. Robinson’s ISO offense will still see some success, but greatly reduced in the face of Hakeem. Hawkins and Kenny Smith will be the primary defenders on Miller. In this offense he requires someone to expend a lot of energy chasing him through screens, and my two spot up shooters will have energy in spades considering their limited roles offensively. With LJ, he’s being covered by one of the SFs who can match him in size, and is a talented defender. I really can’t say for sure if it was Hill limiting LJ when they faced, but my suspicion is he was the one forcing his 43% shooting average. If we can get the ball into LJ’s hands and marginalize Reggie, Stockton, and DRob some we’ll consider that a win. Also of note, when Kukoc is in the game, expect to see him on Grant/Mason with Nance/Horry on LJ to match size/speed/footwork a bit more.
Rebounding:
In the Regular season match-ups over their career, Hakeem and Drob are dead even. In the Offs Dream had a slight advantage. Couple that with the fact Hakeem declined for the last few years of match-ups with Drob and I’d say we’ve got a slight edge. That slight edge is negated by Grant’s edge on Nance. At the wings (penny instead of Hersey), we take the edge on Kukoc/Penny’s superior rebounding and LJ/Grant being even. At PG Hawkins has the advantage on Stock. We expect to outrebound Bryant’s team in most games.
Conclusion:
Bryant has a very nice looking team that simply ran into a bad match-up. Hakeem, Hill, and Penny are too much for their counterparts, and we expect to take this series.

I'll rebut as needed.

[TMACFORMVP]

I know it's almost becoming cliche' but these are the sort of matchups I truly love. Warspite is one of the most knowledgeable posters on the entire board, and someone I can personally say I've learned a lot about the history of the game from. Personally, I love our AIM conversations because War doesn't hold anything back (and I mean this in a good way), if he doesn't see something right, he'll bring that up, and a solution later on in the draft that could potentially fix that. One of things I love about his writeups (and yes, I know I'm facing him) is that he understands his team, and does an exemplary job of describing those roles. I look forward to reading his writeup, and win or lose, I can honestly say I come away having learned something. And ultimately, besides the fun of drafting, talking about picks or teams, getting a better understanding of the history of the game is something to take away in these games as well. Best of luck Warspite, may the best team win; which my team FULLY intends to do so.

Weaknesses

Lack of Range
Outside of Bobby Phills, there's no one one that provides efficient long range shooting. Magic was roughly a 32% shooter from distance, similarly with Payton. King, nor Lewis were good long range shooters, and guys like Kemp, Willis, and Daugherty were primarily most effective 15 feet and in. In fact, there are many people on this team that share similar spots on the floor, Magic, Kemp, Daugherty, and King, even Payton at times too preferred similar spots on the floor -- that's the pressing issue, not really %'s overall, but whether they could space the floor for each other, having different spots on the floor, etc. While War's offense is still very potent -- I believe this will be a factor in reducing overall efficiency of that offense.

Lack of Interior Defense
Daugherty was an OK defender, but he wasn't an anchor, and often cited at times for being soft. Kemp, again was an OK defender, but never notably anything better than that. Willis was a good rebounder, but his defense left a lot to be desired as well. With a lack of a shot-blocker, we think can take advantage with guys like Shaq, or Nique/KJ with other floor spacers on the floor to score efficiently from all angles.

Keep in mind, Brad Daugherty and Kevin Willis will be the primary defenders on Shaquille O'neal. The same Shaq that led the NBA in scoring, the same Shaq that did 26/12 on 57% in the post-season, or the same Shaq that averaged that 28/13/6 on nearly 60% against a prime Hakeem Olajuwon in the NBA Finals. Shaq will dominate this series, and play a huge factor in the outcome. This could be argued as the biggest advantage for both teams.

Bernard King (90-91)
He's not on the level of Dominique Wilkins in this era. On first glance, you'd think they score on similar volumes, but in reality, their efficiency and impact offensively isn't comparable in this particular era.

- The Bullets ranked 24th/27th in ORTG.
- Even greater volume, 24.3 FGA attempts per game -- .527 TS%
- League Wide TS% in 91: .534 (-0.7); so King shot nearly a % under league average.
- Limited lack of range; 21% from distance, limited amount of attempts.
- 4.0 turnovers per game. Worst TRB% of his career.
- On a losing team; 25-39 with him in the lineup.

Looking at this, what's the difference between him and Iverson? High volume in terms of shot attempts, no real significant impact to team offense, low efficiency, lack of range, turnover prone, and a below average rebounder, passer and defender. He shares the same spots on the floor as Kemp, Daugherty, Magic, and Payton, whom all are better and more efficient offensive players at this stage of their careers. So, when he's not getting the touches he needs (when he shouldn't be getting touches over better offensive players), what exactly does he bring this team, or in other words, what's his role?

Let's look at Dominique Wilkins in his chosen season:

- The Hawks ranked 10th/27th in ORTG.
- 22.3 FGA, got to the line at a greater rate -- .570 TS%
- League Wide TS% in 93: .536 (+3.4); so Nique shot considerably higher than league average
- Terrific range; top 10 in 3PM (12), and 12th in three point %.
- Only 2.6 TOV's. 10.1 TRB%, slightly above average for a SF.
- On a winning team; 39-31 w/him in the lineup.
- Nique in this chosen season averaged 30 PPG on 47/38/83.
- The only other players to do at least 28 PPG on 45/35 shooting making half a three per game or more (keep in mind, Nique made nearly two threes per game) were Michael Jordan (4x), Larry Bird (3x), Kobe Bryant (2x), Kevin Durant (1x), and Tracy McGrady (1x).
- His efficiency difference between wins/losses for that Hawks team was incredible, in 39 wins, he did 33/7/4 on .596 TS. In February, he averaged 32/7/3 on 52/41/85, and in March; he averaged 34.4/7/4 on 49/40/84. It's true his efficiency dipped in the playoffs 30/5 on 43%, but it's worth mentioning he was playing the wing combo of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen.
- This basically equates to him under Weiss (the head coach of the Hawks) scoring the ball at a Kobe Bryant level efficiency and volume.
- Check out the past two seasons (record) w/out Nique in the lineup for the Hawks.

Code: Select all

61-52 (.539) w/him.
20-31 (.392) w/out him.

TOTAL OFFENSE W/OUT NIQUE: 101.6 PPG - would rank 23/27th in PPG
TOTAL OFFENSE W/NIQUE: 110.6 PPG (+9.0) - would rank 5th/27th in PPG
LEAGUE AVERAGE: 105.6

So, he took them from an offense that was considerably below average, and made them one of the top 5 scoring offenses in the league. The Hawks were 11th, 4th, 5th, 4th, 4th, 8th, 16th (year Nique got hurt), 10th during Nique's prime, which is pretty remarkable considering the lack of legitimate offensive options put around him.

This is more like a Kevin Durant versus out of prime Allen Iverson.

Strengths

Backcourt led by Magic Johnson
Firstly, I'm not going to argue in any way shape or form that my backcourt will outproduce Warspite's. He has the advantage at both guard positions, and it creates a terrific combo that causes a lot of matchup problems for any team. Rather, what I'll try to argue is that, the backcourt edge isn't enough to come through in this series. Here's why:

1. Kevin Johnson in his prime was criminally underrated. He was a 22/10 PG with 60% TS that was All-NBA player leading his team as the best player to 55+ wins. In '1990, need I remind you that the Kevin Johnson led Phoenix Suns upset the best record Los Angeles Lakers (Magic was better in '90 as well) in the WCSF. Magic most notably was known for terrific games in G4 and G5, but people don't realize KJ averaged roughly 30/12 in those two games as well including dominating the final stretch of the fourth quarter of G3 to lead the Suns.

I'd presume Warspite would put Payton on Johnson, and unfortunately their primes do not coincide to look at head2head data. I've always felt Payton was better at being a more disruptive defender, and a bit overrated as a complete lock down guy. For stretches he guarded Jordan well in the '96 Finals (there was a lot of switching/rotations, with Hawkins as well); which gave the impression he did the same thing in every sort series.

Here's a little interesting tidbit I noticed in Payton's defense against top perimeter scorers in the rounds he was eliminated in:

Code: Select all

95: Nick Van Exel (1st Round) - 24.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 5.0 APG on .500 from the field.
*Nick averaged 17/3/8 on 42% in the regular season. In the second round against the Spurs, Van Exel shot a combined 13-51 in the last three games of the series. So Nick, DOMINATED Payton in that matchup as well.

'97: Clyde Drexler (WCSF) - 20.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.8 APG on .452 from the field.
*Drexler averaged 18/6/5 on 44% in the regular season, and for the entire playoffs was similar, but slightly less efficient, so this was his best series in the entire playoffs.

98: Eddie Jones (WCSF) - 22.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.8 APG on .558 from the field.
*Jones was a 17/4/3 player on 48% in the regular season. In that playoffs, he ended up shooting an overall .466 from the field, and 17 PPG, so this is once again, another series where the perimeter player has completely gone above their averages to change the course of the series.

00: John Stockton (1st Round) - 13.0 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 12.2 APG on .510 from the field.
*Stockton was a 12/9 player in the regular season shooting 50% from the field. In the playoffs, he averaged an overall 11/10 on 46%, which would yet again imply that this was well above his averages, and by far his best playoff series as well.

02: Tony Parker (1st Round) - 17.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.1 APG on .500 from the field.
*This is a rookie Tony Parker, who averaged 9/2/4 in the regular season on 42% from the field. In the playoffs, he did 15.5/3/4 on nearly 46% from the floor. So, again, this would imply, he did worse in his next series. His two huge games in G1 and G3 were the difference. Steve Smith also had three very solid games as well.

This is not really posted to prove anything, but we're confident that KJ, even with Payton on him will have a huge impact in this series (don't get me wrong, Payton will make KJ work harder, but we feel he's up to the task, similar to how Dumars will make Magic work, but ultimately won't do too much to truly affect his game -- there's no denying that).

2. Gary Payton's different role.

I think the backcourt combo works perfectly defensively, but offensively, it's a slightly different role for Payton, which reduces his overall effectiveness, IMO. With King not being a floor spacer; Payton is almost relegated to a role where he becomes a spot up shooter. Add that to having the ball in his hands less than he did with Seattle, the gradual role change to more a spot up shooter is more apparent. Because a.) in terms of percentage/volume he might be their best shooter from the perimeter in the starting lineup; b.) with lack of other floor spacers, and less ball handling duties, his game will drift more to the perimeter.

I think in this regard, Dumars fits his role more naturally. I think he can take advantage of Magic defensively, can serve as an off the dribble guy, or a deadly spot up three point shooter. With slightly reduced effectiveness from Payton, and slightly improved production from Dumars (see: '89 or '90 Finals as a way to show how Dumars stepped up, Warspite would know this ); we think that lessens the overall "talent" gap at that position.

3. Overall; KJ has proven to have kept his own against Magic in a playoff setting (again; KJ led Suns beat the best record Magic led Lakers in 1990 -- with KJ dominating the end of G4 to lead them to a win, including a game clinching FT in G1 to win that game as well). Reiterating, this dude, averaged 22/10 on 60% TS, and was a big playoff performer. Then with Payton having to play a completely different role opposed to the one he did on Seattle, with Dumars filling in with essentially what he did on those Detroit teams, we think our backcourt can hang with War's to the point that Shaq, and Nique upfront will be too much.

Other Notes:

1.) From 94-96 (when both Robinson and Kemp hit their primes), they faced each other 16 times. Kemp averaged roughly 19/9 on 50% in those games, while Robinson did roughly 20/6 on 44% in those games (didn't calculate three point%, so it's likely his TS% was higher when you consider his three point numbers on the seasons). Ultimately, the point being that, Kemp will get his, but Perkins and Robinson will fulfill their roles to the maximum as well. In short, the PF matchup won't decide this series.

2.) We have similar benches, Christie and Phills do the same exact role, while Lewis and Drazen have similar roles as well. I'd like to point out that of all four players, Drazen has the biggest role, and is the best player of the bunch. He was very savvy in his prime, a terrific shooter both off and on the ball. I think both he and Dumars can exploit Magic by spotting up or getting by him for off the dribble jumpshots. His impact on the series shouldn't be understated. Kevin Willis and Clifford Robinson bring different strengths to the table, Willis namely his rebounding (in a year where the Hawks were terrible -- mainly b/c Nique missed half the season due to injury), and Robinson with his floor spacing at the 4, along with good to very good man defense. If you could combine the two, we'd be talking about one of the greatest PF's in the game, lol. Seikaly makes up a little for the lack of rebounding from Uncle Cliffy, and chips in offensively as well. Dumars plays the backup PG role, and should have more an impact than Phills on both ends of the floor.

3.) We have considerably better spacing. Nique was top 10 in the league in threes made and %. Dumars was a very good three point shooter, Drazen was one of the greatest shooters of all time, Christie was OK, and Perkins/Robinson perfectly allow Shaq to dominate inside the paint as they're primarily perimeter oriented big man. Our offensive flow and team structure is more sound.

Ultimately, Warspite has built a fantastic team, but one that possesses a few flaws that we feel our team can take advantage of; in summary being:

- Backcourt roles; KJ/Dumars will hang with Magic/Payton enough to a point where it won't outweigh the advantages elsewhere.
- Shaq and Nique will DOMINATE this series.
- Better spacing, slightly more versatility defensively.
- Have three positions we can take advantage of offensively at high levels, Dumars/Drazen, along with Shaq and Nique (keep in mind, Lewis/King would be the primary defenders on Nique).

Honestly, only one thing is for sure, that it'd be a damn good series.

May the best team win, War.

[bryant08]

Cellardoor Fighting Gremzes
Penny(28)/Smith(20)
Hawkins(24)/Penny(12)/Hill(12)
Hill(28)/Kukoc(20)
Nance(32)/Davis(10)/Horry(6)
Hakeem(40)/Nance(8)

vs

Bryant08
Stockton (36)/Skiles (12)
Reggie (36)/Majerle (12)
Johnson (32)/Majerle (10)/Mason (6)
Grant (34)/Mason (8)/McKey (6)
Robinson (38)/Big Z (10)

I want to start out by saying how amazing Cellar’s team is in terms of talent level, mainly his trio in Hakeem/Hill/Penny which would’ve been an absolute spectacle to observe. Obviously it’s going to be a tough series going up against a team as talented as Cellar’s, but I feel my squad has enough ability on both ends of the floor to pull this series out. I want to address a number of key factors that should help decide who takes this series.

1. The Hakeem/DRob matchup
I'm not going to try and discredit Hakeem for the 1995 WCF against the Spurs. We all know how that series seemed to really cement Hakeem as a cut above the competition. Absolutely godly performance in that series. But I really want to address how the duo performed against one another on the whole, not just in those 6 games. Including that series, Hakeem/Robinson met 42 times over their career. I think we all know not to read too much into head-to-head stats for various reasons, but nevertheless here they are:

Robinson: 19.6 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.3 blocks, 2.9 assists, 2.2 steals, 3 turnovers, 49% FG, 72% FT (7.7 FTA)
Hakeem: 21.9 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.4 blocks, 2.8 assists, 1.9 steals, 2.9 turnovers, 44% FG, 77% FT (5.4 FTA)

Their numbers are virtually identical, with Hakeem scoring a couple more points but at a lower efficiency. I've been watching some clips of the 1995 series as well, to see the root of Hakeem's success and Robinson's troubles. When we see short clips or highlights from that series, we usually see a few beautiful fakes by Hakeem on DRob, concluding with a finish around the basket. But what isn't even shown is that much of Hakeem's offense was generated via the pick-and-roll, shifting defensive responsibilty from Robinson to the Spurs help defense, which did not live up to expectation in this series. I also want to mention that Robinson had a poor series offensively (by his crazy standards), averaging 24 points off 45% shooting. During the series, Robinson was often double-teamed and sometimes triple-teamed, forcing him to create his own offense and often leading to turnovers.

With the amount of scoring talent around him on my squad, there's no hesitation in getting rid of the ball whether it be to an open shooter or back out to Stockton to reset. Much criticism is given to Robinson for not taking charge offensively in that series, but DRob has such a unique offensive skillset, unlike many of the dominant bigs of the 90s. Establishing a strong pick-and-roll game as well as allowing him to utilize his quickness, atheticism and mid-range shooting game are how I plan to attack offensively. Defensively it has to be a team effort to contain Hakeem, but I've got to be confident in DRob's defense, he's the anchor of this team, and he's had success against Hakeem in the past, it's just a matter of putting that series aside and establishing that nothing will come easy for the Dream, which DRob has proven throughout their many meetings.

2. Team Balance
No doubt Hakeem is not the only player you need to gameplan for on Cellar's team, which is what makes it such a difficult matchup. But one thing I feel I've kept consistent with my teams throughout all eras is balance. My offensive gameplan makes sense here, pick-and-roll options with Robinson/Grant/Stockton, supported by outside shooting provided by Reggie Miller and further backed up by Robinson/LJ's inside game. In terms of Cellar's offensive gameplan, I'm assuming Penny will be doing most of the creating. It's always great to have another player that can handle the ball and playmake (never really a negative thing) at an elite level in Grant Hill, but I question how this offense can work at full capacity when both players are much better with the ball in their hands. Neither is an above average perimeter shooter and I don't think Hawkins is enough to negate this weakness. I'd actually like to see how this offense would run, where Penny/Hill would operate, and how Cellar plans to get the most out of them. The talent is undeniable, I question how they will be used (or if they even can be) to maximize that talent into wins. It’s also worth noting Hakeem was most successful on those Rockets teams when the offense was run through him but with exceptional perimeter shooters to provide support.

And as much as I'm supposed to worry about Penny/Hill offensively, I think the same can be said about my guys on the offensive end. Hill may have the speed advantange over LJ, but Johnson was an absolute bull and has a major advantage in his ability to get into the lane. Hawkins might space the floor on offense, but he’ll have his hands full trying to keep Miller in check. And Stockton is no slouch either, he’ll definitely give Penny his fair share of problems.

On the defensive end, I don’t plan on adjusting my gameplan too much. I need to win this series with team-oriented defense and a well-balanced offensive attack. Stockton will defend Penny Hardaway and despite the size advantage for Penny, we all know Stock has great quicks and ability to play the passing lanes. At worst, he’ll make it difficult for Penny to penetrate, and if Hardaway wants to take long-distance jumpers over the top of Stockton, he’s welcome to. I’ll use Miller on Hawkins and LJ on Grant Hill. I don’t mind LJ cheating a bit to give Hill some space to take the outside jumper, as this gives him the extra step needed to make up for Hill’s explosive first step. Also making mention of LJ/Hill’s individual matchups, I think it’s tough to judge them based on how short LJ’s peak was, but it’s worth noting Hill shot 43% against Johnson (Johnson shot 44% against Hill) and Hill was at 3.3 turnovers a game. Cellar mentioned how LJ always had a great defensive presence around him (which may have contributed to Hill shooting a lower fg%), well Robinson is no exception backing up Grandmama on my team. Horace Grant will be on Nance and DRob on Hakeem, but I have no problem making adjustments as they’re needed. The beauty of having Horace Grant on a team is that he’s useful in all situations, on offense he provides spacing, finishing ability and he’s a major presence on the boards, while defensively he can guard either 4s or 5s and can come up with the big play whether it be a steal or a block.

3. Depth

No doubt Cellar has some solid bench players in Dale Davis, Kukoc, Kenny Smith and Horry, but I honestly feel my bench might be the best this era both in terms of talent and how accustomed players are to coming off the bench. Dan Majerle gives me great spacing on offense, rebounding from the wing position and is a great option to use on either Penny/Hill as needed. Derrick McKey is another solid utility player that can guard the 3-4 as well as Anthony Mason who I really think does not get enough respect this era, for putting up an incredible season (16 points, 11.5 rebounds, 5.7 assists). All 3 of these guys have All Defensive selections as well. Although just a rookie, Big Z produced nicely and brings tremendous size and ability to space the floor offensively. Finally Skiles provided a little bit of everything as a floor general, solid defensive play, shooting from the outside and toughness (15.4 points, 9.4 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 47% FG, 34% 3PT).

4. Rebounding
I just wanted to address rebounding as I don’t think Cellar has the advantage which he claims to. Robinson/Grant/Johnson/Mason/Majerle/Skiles are all elite rebounders for their positions and while Stockton/Reggie may lose the backcourt rebounding matchup against Penny/Hawkins, my frontcourt and bench hold a slight advantage in my eyes. Even Big Z was at 11 rebounds/36 mins in his rookie season (actually averaged 8.8 in just 29 minutes, had a rebound rate of 18.6).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All in all I’m a huge admirer of Cellar’s team and I think he pretty much nailed every pick, Penny being on the board at the point was a huge steal IMO. But I feel the construction and balance of my team are still going to hold up, similar to how my team did in the first era against some very talented teams. My offensive balance and depth are the two pillars I’m going to need to rely on to take this series and I feel I have the talent to do so. Robinson/Miller/Stockton (with the help of the rest of my squad) is the trio that will come out on top against the most talented trio in the game in Olajuwon/Hill/Hardaway.

[Snakebites]

I have been asked to put in a writeup for War's team in his absence. This obviously means I will not be voting on this matchup.

Warspite vs. TMAC

First, we will take a look at the individual matchups:

I love Tmac's back court. It fits well together and has pronounced shades of Dumars/Isiah to it. It would be an absolutely elite backcourt in the context of the regular league. Unfortunately for him in this series he is facing a backcourt the likes of which has not been seen before. First off, the obvious thing to point out here is the obvious size advantage. Magic and Payton were both noted as guards who could wear down their opponents with a considerable size and strength advantage, and this is exacerbated by the fact that TMAC sports a relatively small backcourt and the fact that both Magic and Payton loved to post up and were pretty damn good at it too. Despite the fit and skill of those small guards, they are simply overmatched here.

RE: Payton's defense. There isn't any evidence in favor of or against KJ's performances against a prime Payton, and while I acknowledge one can site instances in which other guards had success against Payton, I think the notion that he has the size and tenacity to give KJ fits still warrants a discussion.

While Magic may have problems against Dumars/Petrovic defensively, he had problems against other guards frequently. I think its still fairly clear that his impact on this series will vastly overshadow whoever he happens to be guarding.

While one can argue that Payton's role in this offense isn't quite as well defined as his role in the Sonic's offense, I chalk that up, in part, as a testament to how many impressive options this offense has and believe that Magic is the sort of player and coordinator that can make this work offensively. TMAC does not dispute that the backcourt advantage is clearly ours, and I figured it would be good to outline exactly WHY that is.

Forwards: It seems prudent to put together a defense of Bernard King here, as he was attacked in TMAC's writeup. Its important to look at King's career and season in context. In this time period, he had essentially NO offensive help. The lesser Grant twin, Harvey, was probably the second best player on the team. He was somewhat older, but he also suffered drastically from the fact that there simply was no other player that presented a major threat offensively on the floor. In this offense he is a supporting player with a quarterback behind him who was renowned for getting the most out of teammates in terms of efficiency and general effectiveness. I believe, while he's not quite as good as Dominiquie Wilkens, that the notion that he's somehow a liability is false. His volume scoring will be lower, but so will his turnovers and he will be much more efficient.

Shawn Kemp is a dominant athlete who is paired with two amazing finishers who will get the most out of him, and he is also considerably more athletic and physically imposing than either of his counterparts on both ends of the floor.

Center: Ahh. This is where my opponent can, on paper, claim a considerable advantage. While I won't deny Shaq's dominance, I think it would be wrong to marginalize Daugherty's role in this offense. He has more range and mobility than his counterpart and this makes him the perfect component to this offense. While Shaq was a decent man presence down low, he wasn't the team defender at this stage in his career that he would later develop into. He had even more trouble against uptempo offenses like the Showtime-style offense this team has every intention of running, and wasn't as impressive a passer as Daugherty either.

While I won't argue that Daugherty is better than Shaq, I will argue that he is the perfect center to help a stronger overall team defeat this version of Shaq in this particular matchup.

Rebounding: This is the meat of my argument. We can squabble about defense, matchups and other issues all we want, but the bottom line is that the team that controls the tempo in this series will win it. War's team will want to get out and play a fast game ala the Showtime Lakers, and will be able to do this (and by extension win the series) because we have firm and definitive control of the boards for running opportunities.

Shaq is an impressive rebounder in this era but he really doesn't rebound that much better than Brad (in terms of total boards only .5 over). The only really rebounding advantage of major note is that of the small forward matchup, where Nique will outrebound Bernard King. Despite this, TMAC is facing the best rebounding backcourt I've ever seen in these games, and is also dealing with a major disadvantage at the power forward spot, where the rock solid Shawn Kemp and the stellar Kevin Willis simply overmatch their counterparts, the relatively weak rebounding Sam Perkins and Clifford Robinson.

This rebounding advantage will allow War's team to play the game it wants to play, and in these conditions Magic teams are simply extremely difficult to defeat. Couple that with a clear backcourt advantage, forwards that can hold their own, and a center who is the perfect fit for a Magic-run offense, and you have a matchup that is just too much for TMAC's team to handle. Spacing isn't outstanding on this team, but Magic demonstrated that he could win championships and run extremely effective and efficient offenses without the need for elite outside shooting, and this is what I think we'll see here. War has a better passing and rebounding team, and this will allow the offense to control the tempo of the game and force this Shaq centric team to play the sort of game their opponents' are simply better at than them.

Good luck, and may the best team win.

[TMACFORMVP]

Thanks for doing it. I will not do a rebuttal, we can move forward with the judging.

[Warspite]

In and out of hospital this week. I did have a writeup ready but Snake does better writeups than me.

Voters please note that kevin WIllis is playing starters mins and fouls are no issue with Dyse and Dampier on the bench. Daugherty is a great pick and pop player and King is no longer the #1 option on the team being replaced by Magic and Daugherty. King played on a lottery team with no 2nd option and a PG who avged 4apg in 30mins. Putting him with Magic is a godsend to him and in this yr King became a 3pt shooter and increased his range.

Shawn Kemp in 1996 had a career yr and this high school to NBA player realy began to click and put things together. I totaly understand not useing a yr sample size because its only 2 games but the Shawn Kemp of 96 is alot differant than 93 or 94. Not haveing played in NCAA realy stunted his growth and took away from his development. Since we are useing the a 1 yr criteria I ask you to weigh what a 96 Kemp would do over the course of the bigger sample sizes. This yr Kemps def rating and his Eff are off the charts. a great weakside shot blocker and a thuderous finisher.

This series is all about tempo and the team that controls it wins it.

I also want to add 1 thing about the benches. Reggie Lewis is an allstar SF in yr selected as is Kevin Willis. They both were much better players than Drazen. Even Dyse in his season is on par or better.

I dont understand TMacs suggestion that bad players on good teams are better than good players on bad teams. Since none of these teams are bad all players will play better and be more eff but there touches will be down. Some may have to find other roles to make an impact but others just need to do what they do best and put pressure on the other team to keep up. My team has more experience in both real life and in this era format. Having a 3time era tourney player and 5 of my 8 rotation players returning will give me better chemistry and clutch play.

Most imporantly I have Magic at the end of the game with the ball to make the pass or shot and is a 90% FT shooter. Shaq however will be absent in the last 2mins and the game will fall to Nique/Dumars to finish it.

Thanks Snakebites....

[Snakebites]

First vote (and only from me, I'll need to abstain from the other matchup unless there is a tie and nobody else available):

I like everything about Bryant's team. Overall, I believe it to be superior to Cellar's team in terms of sound construction and how I'd expect them to do against common opponents.

That said, I agree with Cellar's assessment that they just run into a rough matchup here. While I don't think Cellar's pieces are the best fit together, I think Hakeem and Penny are nightmarish matchups for Bryant's team, and I think that with that talent level they can ultimately make it work.

Vote....Cellar

[Miller4ever]

War's team works and is ridiculously talented. He gets the most out of what I consider to be great picks from all 3 eras we've played. I don't think Payton and Magic in the backcourt will be a problem. Nique is the better of the 3's, but their respective impacts aren't as big as the other positions. However, TMAC has Shaquille O'Neal to run with KJ and Dumars, who can hold their own against Magic and Payton, while Shaq is significantly better than his counterpart. Daugherty is great, and the gap between him and Shaq isn't huge, but it's the biggest gap in this matchup. Warspite responds with a better bench. I think the depth that War has with guys like Reggie Lewis and the rebounding advantage he has, he'll take the matchup.

Vote: Warspite

As for the other matchup, if there's one guy who can mitigate DRob, it's Hakeem. That being said, it's also the bench of Cellar and although I'm not liking the fit of his starting lineup, I think the rotations ease some of that and he takes this one.

Vote: Cellardoor

[Warspite]

I realy like Bryants team. It has Pistons DNA and I believe the whole is better than the sum of its parts. That being said Penny/Hill/Hakeem is a big 3 buzzsaw that is hard to matchup with. So I need to look deeper into this matchup.

Cellar Door as a big adv on def at almost every position. H
Bryant is more eff at there game.
Cellars lack of backup bigs is a huge question for me since hes up against for the most part a player who is on par with him and draws fouls at a huge rate.

In the end I just see one huge adv and thats Grant Hill. I watched this Grant Hill outplay MJ and dominate with a cast of nobodys. With this type of talent I think he could be something special. A Magic/MJ hybrid. LJ just cant contain that and hes going to realy struggle at SF.

Im voting Cellar Door.

[-Kees-]

War VS TMAC

my vote: War

I think a huge part of this is the big backcourt for War. Dumars is slightly undersized, and I just think they will overpower TMAC's back court. IMO the only clear advantage for TMAC is at the C position, and I give this one to War, just because he can be TMAC's team in multiple ways.

Cellar VS Bryant

My Vote: Cellar

To start off, I love the makeup of both teams. Both are geared around a C, have a distributive PG, and a shooter at the 2. However, I think Cellar's perimeter play will fit better and play better. Between the shooting of Kukoc and Hawkins, to the D of Hill, and the playmaking and scoring of Penny, I think they win the perimeter. Hakeem will be able to slow down Drob, and use his "Dream Shake" on him (see my avatar), and I think that Cellar has the overall higher talent level.

[lukekarts]

I don't have time to state my reasoning but I've been thinking about both of these for a while.

Cellar def Bryant. Had they not matched up I could potentially have seen Bryant get to the final but I think Cellar's is ever so slightly better.

TMAC vs. Warspite = draw. I think this will go to octuple overtime of game 7 (yeah I didn't make that word up) before the refs call quits on the game as it's 2am and everyone's getting tired.

[TMACFORMVP]

OK, thanks for voting everyone, this has gone on long enough.

I'll give bryant a vote. I'm in love with the construction. Hakeem didn't sweep Robinson, it went 6!

Finals will be Warspite v. Cellar. Get them writeups in.

[CellarDoor]

OK, thanks for voting everyone, this has gone on long enough.

Finals will be Warspite v. Cellar. Get them writeups in.

Will likely get mine in tomorrow.

Penny(28)/Smith(20)
Hawkins(24)/Penny(12)/Hill(12)
Hill(28)/Horry(20)
Nance(32)/Davis(16)
Hakeem(40)/Nance(8)

[CellarDoor]

Penny(28)/Smith(20)
Hawkins(24)/Penny(12)/Hill(12)
Hill(28)/Horry(20)
Nance(32)/Davis(16)
Olajuwon(40)/Nance(8)
v.
Johnson/Payton
Payton/Phills
King/Lewis
Kemp/Willis
Daughtery/Willis

Head to head match-ups:
Smith v. Payton- In both the playoffs and the regular season Payton wasn’t able to go off on Smith at any point. He averaged less than 17 points a game and only 6 assists. Additionally, Smith wasn’t really slowed in his 3pt attempts and makes. Since Smith and Hawkins will never find themselves in the game at the same time, Magic can’t exploit him.

Hakeem v. Daugherty- Hakeem obviously won here, and dropped Daughtery’s efficiency pretty drastically. I’m not really certain if Brad/Dream matched up or Nance/Dream. I don’t think anyone’s going to contest that anything will happen here except Daugherty being put through the ringer. He was an awful defender, and offensively he won’t exploit Hakeem. It’s also worth noting Hakeem forced a LOT of turnovers via steals and presumably some with blocks too.

Hakeem v. Willis- In 19 games, Hakeem actually outrebounded Willis in addition to scoring on him. Obviously the offensive stats favor Dream.

Nance v. Kemp- Nance won pretty handily except with regard to rebounds. I can respect War’s assertion that Kemp took steps in 96 and became a different player, but I still believe we’re going to see Kemp slowed by a very active and good defender in Nance. Since War’s team distinctly lacks spacing and penetration, Kemp’s going to have alot of traffic moving towards the basket.

Defense:
Defensively we’re facing a huge team. Luckily our team is pretty huge itself. Magic will always be guarded by one of Penny or Hill, Payton will see a lot of Smith and Hawkins. We intend to use Penny and Hill’s length to make Magic work on offense and restrict his vision of the court with their size. You obviously don’t stop Magic, but this year’s Magic fell in love with the 3 point shot, and didn’t do well with it shooting under 30%. We’ll sag off a bit and dare him to shoot it when we can.
Payton isn’t a huge scorer, and he’s mitigated quite heavily in this offense. He’s most comfortable in the same spots as most of the rest of this team. We’ll let him try to go off on Smith/Hawkins.
Bernard King will see Hill/Horry the entire time. Two people with a size and speed advantage on him at this point in his career. He’s a talented scorer to be sure, but again, anytime he has the ball in his hands, there’s not much spacing except Phills, so I expect to have my team sag off their men and force King to score around everyone. I expect him to score, but not do it efficiently.
Kemp will see Nance/Davis. As mentioned, I expect Nance to slow him and for these guys to score similarly. Kemp’s a great finisher and a beast in his selected year.
Daughtery’s going to have nightmares. He’s quick, but Hakeem’s quicker, and Hakeem doesn’t have to worry much about people getting into the lane with the exception of Kemp, so he’ll stay at home mostly. As mentioned in the H2H match-up, when Daughtery gets the ball we expect to force turnovers and throw them tempo off for War’s slow it down team.

Offensive:
War’s team is the only team with size to match-up with mine. The problem is his size on the perimeter doesn’t have speed. I assume his gameplan will be to use Payton on Penny and King on Hill with Magic on the small. For whatever reason, Payton did quite well on Penny, which we’re okay with. Penny will probably pick his spots to attack while Payton is playing help defense or when Payton’s out. Luckily, Hill is being guarded by Bernard King. We’ll exploit this to it’s fullest and let Hill, as war called it, be his combination of Michael and MJ and outplay War’s entire team. And if this doesn’t work, we’ll go to Hakeem. A large portion of the game (24 minutes) Hakeem will be playing with guys like Nance, Horry, and Smith/Hawkins, so the spacing is there for Dream to do his thing down low. Nance, Horry, Davis, Smith, and Hawkins will as always pick their spots on a team full of excellent scorers who are extremely gifted passers. As always, we expect either a lot of double teams, or a lot of people exploited.

Rebounding:
As mentioned, Hakeem actually outrebounded both of his counterparts. There’s no way around it though, both his PFs outrebound mine, so we’re losing down low; however, King gets badly outrebounded by Hill and Horry’s about on par. With Magic on the my little guard who’s a dynamite shooter, and he’s going to see his rebounding mitigated. Meanwhile Penny on Magic will see his rebounding numbers staying high. I believe War takes the rebounding edge, but not by nearly enough.

Final thoughts:
As always this era, I’d like to highlight the talent difference. While Warspite probably has the second best talent level of this era, he’s still behind. My team is on another level, and Hill/Olajuwon are just too much for their counterparts to handle.

[Warspite]

Bonecrusher vs CD

Magic (35)/GP (13)
GP (22)/Phills (26)
King (28)/Lewis (20)
Kemp(32)/Willis (16)
Daugherty (32)/Willis (16)


This is a matchup of the new guard vs the old in many ways. Penny and Magic/Hill and King Daugherty/Hakeem and Kemp vs Nance. In many ways the newer player is a copy of the older.

Offense: We are going to continue the pick and roll and pick and pop with Daugherty in order to make Hakeem switch or have to stay home. We feel that keeping him at the FT line is a double whammy for us.
1. Reduces def rebounding
2. Eliminates weakside help

We also want to post up Magic more. I like Magic being guarded by either Penny or Hill. There youth and inexperience will allow Magic to get to the FT line. Im going to give Lewis more mins in this series because hes a better shooter outside and will play better defense. Still I want King to attack Hill early.

Even with Hakeem I realy dont think the offense is going to have troubles scoring. With our bigs Hakeem either stays at home or we can crash the off glass. Our size adv up front allows us to dominate the offensive glass if Hakeem decides to roam around on def. GP can also post up if need be and take adv of the smaller Hawkins who was his teammate for yrs.

Def:

We stay at home and take adv of Hill who has no jumpshot outside 15ft. I think the spacing is just as bad or worse for CD. Hakeem actualy has more range than Hill. Hawkins is the only shooter and he actualy plays less mins than Phills. I beleive we can play better def because our best weakside defender is guarding the 5th option and can actualy double Hakeem. Hakeem is going to have to stay at home much more often and play his man who is a primary scorer.

I realy see 3 major advantages that we have in this series.

1. experience/leadership

My team has Magic at PG down the stretch while CD relies on Penny or Hill with neither being a true PG who was known for winning big playoff games. 91 Magic has so much more experience and leads teams so much better. I expect that to play out and give us a serious edge in execution.

2. rotation

Much of CDs players play multiple positions and have to change adapt to differant roles. My team plays a much more simple rotation with much fewer role changes and so the offense and def assingments dont change as much. Im useing fewer players and they are playing more mins so will have more oppertunites vs backups. Hakeem has no backup C and so when hes on the bench they will be completely dominated on the boards and there defense will break down. If Hakeem gets in foul trouble the game can get away very quickly.

3. Rebounding

Brad 16.0/ Willis 22.6/Kemp 20.3/King 7.3/Magic 11.1
Dream 16.2/Davis 18.1/Nance 13.9/Hill 14.5/Penny 6.8/ Hardaway 6.9

We have a huge adv in rebounding. Nance and Dream while athletic are a small frontcourt in height and espeicaly in girth. Normaly Penny and Hill would be able to help but with Magic and GP that adv is nullified to a great extent. Davis is the teams best rebounder but hes only playing 16mpg while I have Kevin WIllis playing starters mins with his huge 22.6 reb rate. The dirty secret about Hakeem is that his rebounding dropped off in his title runs. He simply cant dominate the boards and be Hakeem and that makes sense. I have players with defined roles that simply go up and get the ball.

Once We control the boards we can do what we do best. Showtime!! Being able to score in transistion and from offensive rebounds will go along way to counter Hakeems defense and lift our EFF to a level that CDs team isnt likley to match.

I honestly see both of these teams switching alot on def with the ball going through Hakeem/Hill and Magic. We are going to clog the lane as will they. The differance is we have better shooters and we have better passing to find cutters.

Conclusion:

CD has built a team of 2 slashers, role players and Hakeem vs my team which is built around finding the great talent with a defined role. I have the best rebounder(Willis), the best passer(Magic), best FG% volume scorer(Daugherty), best wing defender(GP) and best 3pt shooter(Phills). I brought in guys with clear defined strengths and inserted them into my team. CD uses multi-talented players with dual abilities and gives them multiple roles trying to create mismatches. He uses role players to stay out of the way and uses 3 talented players to create. Im useing several tallented players and useing Magics leadership to put them into roles.

[CellarDoor]

A couple quick things to address and I'll be done.

Shooting- War would have you believe he has the better shooting in this series. That simply isn't true.

edit: apparently too much data. Long story short, Phills, Magic, Payton is about equal to Penny, Hawkins, Hill in terms of shooting and spacing provided. The issue is that Warspite still has to counteract 40 minutes of Robert Horry and Kenny Smith shooting better than anyone not named Phills or Hawkins, and in Smith's case, just as well.

For me this series comes down to what you think happens with double teams. I don't plan to double team. If you think Magic is going to go berserk on Penny/Hill with their similar size. If you think Payton will get enough touches to do significant damage, if you think Magic, Lewis, and King can slow Hill (remember he'll be at the 2 with Horry forcing Magic or Phills or Payton onto him). And if you think Brad "I Never Averaged a Block or a Steal a Game in my Career" Daugherty is going to bother Hakeem. Look at my rotations and note that at the 1/2/3 I've got 44 minutes of 40% 3pt shooting and another 60 of mid to high 30% 3pt shooting while Warspite only boasts Phills.

Best of Luck to War. One of the guys I've probably learned the most from on this forum.