Tough Trade Choice for Kahn

shrink · Post #1 » by **shrink** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 3:41 pm

I applaud David Kahn and Glen Taylor for acquiring some players that have the upside to give fans hope. However, while David Kahn still looks for his "signature move, I would find it difficult to make trades right now because of the big holes on our team right now.

1. For example, the biggest need for this team isn't a specific position - it's the need for a superstar. Unfortunately, even though we've had a handful of recent lottery picks, there are a limited supply of superstars in the NBA to go around, and few players even have the potential inside them to reach that level. If that's true, it would be difficult the few players we have that even have a chance: Beasley, Randolph, Derrick Williams.

2. Next, one of our biggest needs on the floor is a player who can create for himself off the dribble. Right now, we have no one like that, and perhaps our best chance is with Beasley.

3a. Next, MIN needs to be able to draw fans. I think the player that the casual fans want to see is:

1) Love
2) Rubio
3) Derrick Williams

3b. Unfortunately, while these players have additional local value, they are the players other teams would give full value on (maybe not rubio at this point). If we were to deal Beasley, Randolph or Wes Johnson, when their trade values are at their bottom, our return probably couldn't justify the lost opportunity costs.

Some say a trade of either Beasley or Derrick Williams is inevitable, but I don't think we'll see a trade until we've seen more of them, so it would be later in the season, if at all. Wes and Rubio are players Kahn needs to succeed to justify wasting the 6th pick on Flynn, and both wouldn't draw back much in return at the moment. Love is the most-beloved player by fans. Our other assets are of limited value.

Unless we can make a deal based around Kahn's finances again, with picks and side-players as icing on the cake, I think it will be difficult for Kahn to find a trade he likes for a veteran that can help him win more games this season and protect his job. I hope the amnesty clause is something we can use on a traded player, and Taylor is willing to eat some major money.

shangrila · Post #2 » by **shangrila** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 4:44 pm

I think you can argue C is a pretty big need for this team.

cpfsf · Post #3 » by **cpfsf** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 4:46 pm

I thought about amnesty clause trade possibilities assuming we can trade before waiving a player.

Gasol or Bynum (Walton, Peace, or Blake): Rumor is we tried trading the #2 + Beasley for Gasol or Bynum. I'd prefer that we keep Beasley.

Nash and/or Gortat (Childress or Warrick): Gortat tweeted about a potential trade for Williams. I’m assuming that means Derrick Williams, but we could always add Nash if we wanted a playoff run.

Bogut (Jackson, Udrih, or Gooden): There are so many ways to approach a trade for Bogut.

Esohny · Post #4 » by **Esohny** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 5:46 pm

shangrila wrote:I think you can argue C is a pretty big need for this team.

I think that it's easily the biggest need. I don't love Wes Johnson at SG, but he should be respectable with Adelman as coach. The center position, on the other hand is a depressing void right now.

shrink · Post #5 » by **shrink** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 7:53 pm

.. but besides financial assistance, I question what pieces Kahn can afford to give up.

Esohny · Post #6 » by **Esohny** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 8:02 pm

shrink wrote:.. but besides financial assistance, I question what pieces Kahn can afford to give up.

Shrug. I'd say the only two he should be very reluctant to trade would be Love due to his popularity and all-star level play and Rubio due to the fan anticipation and the major need for a real PG.

Everyone else should be available if it meant bringing in a legit center. Winning will do a hell of a lot more for Kahn and fan interest than any of those other players, including the rookie who plays the same position as the team's all-star.

eyeteeth · Post #7 » by **eyeteeth** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:55 pm

Meh. I'd bet $20 we start the season with the roster we have.

AQuintus · Post #8 » by **AQuintus** » Sat Sep 24, 2011 10:45 pm

eyeteeth wrote:Meh. I'd bet $20 we start the season with the roster we have.

I would be kind of surprised if they didn't make at least some attempt to bring in more veterans, but I would be really surprised if any of the "core" guys (Love, Williams, Rubio, Beasley, Johnson, and Randolph) get moved.

shangrila · Post #9 » by **shangrila** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:00 am

AQuintus wrote:
eyeteeth wrote:Meh. I'd bet $20 we start the season with the roster we have.

I would be kind of surprised if they didn't make at least some attempt to bring in more veterans, but I would be really surprised if any of the "core" guys (Love, Williams, Rubio, Beasley, Johnson, and Randolph) get moved.

Agreed. They won't be trading for Iggy or Kevin Martin, but maybe Raja Bell or Chuck Hayes might get added.

cpfsf · Post #10 » by **cpfsf** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 4:23 am

The reality is, we are still lacking a dominant player – our version of Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade or Kevin Durant – and that will remain an item at the top of the To-Do list.

It’s possible this player could emerge from within the roster. Nearly every player on our team has his best days ahead of him. Some could make an All-Star team during their careers and one has already become an impact player on the USA Men’s National Team in this year’s FIBA World Championships. We also have eight players currently on the roster who were selected in the top-seven of their respective drafts: Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Wes Johnson, Jonny Flynn, Darko Milicic, Corey Brewer, Martell Webster and Ricky Rubio.

The average age of those eight players is 22. However, if one of our players fails to emerge, we will be prepared to find more talent for our team – and we will seek a singular move rather than a series of moves, as we did these last 14 months

The whole summer there were rumors of Minnesota trying to pick up a big. Allegedly Minnesota pursued McGee, Bynum, Gasol, Bogut, and Gortat by dangling the #2 pick. It’s not like Taylor’s being cheap either. Kahn fired Rambis and Timberwolves hired in the best coach possible. Now we’re in the process of upgrading the rest of the coaching staff which won’t be cheap either.

The team can’t really afford to grow attached to players when they won 17 games. With that said, there would be very little purpose in trading Love who is already a proven All-Star caliber player and will likely sign an extension in the future. Beasley still has more value to Minnesota than a lot of other teams, plus it’s not like his value is that high anyway. Rubio trade would be a real delicate situation and would still leave Minnesota with a glaring hole at point guard. None of these guys are untouchable, but finding the right trading partner would be difficult.

If a player was to be traded from our core (either now or till the deadline), I believe Derrick Williams would be the most likely candidate. I don't believe he'd be traded now, but I think it becomes more likely if we can take advantage of an amnesty clause. We’ve tried dangling him before (technically we offered the #2 pick), he’s never played a game so obviously there’s no real attachment to the guy, and we have huge holes at the 2 and 5 positions and Williams could be the key to landing the best center in franchise history (which isn’t saying much).

shrink wrote:You know, we will expect Hemingway out of your next six posts, cpfsf

Hemingway wishes he could post like cpfsf

Narf · Post #11 » by **Narf** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 7:22 am

I think we'll have more leverage after the new CBA is signed. Until then it's hard to say who will or won't be traded.

shrink · Post #12 » by **shrink** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 1:21 pm

Wow - that was a great post! I agree with every line, except for this one

cpfsf wrote: If a player was to be traded from our core (either now or till the deadline), I believe Derrick Williams would be the most likely candidate. I don't believe he'd be traded now, but I think it becomes more likely if we can take advantage of an amnesty clause. We’ve tried dangling him before (technically we offered the #2 pick), he’s never played a game so obviously there’s no real attachment to the guy, and we have huge holes at the 2 and 5 positions and Williams could be the key to landing the best center in franchise history (which isn’t saying much).

While trading a pick on draft night is common, history has shown that it's extremely rare to see a lottery pick get traded in his first year after the night is over. I suspect it's because desperate hometown fans start visualizing the guy in their favorite team's uniform, and the future superstar that the promising player may be, rather than the expected value of who he is. I can only think of it happening twice (you may recall Donyell Marshall), and both of those trades were eight months later, closer to the trade deadline.

Still, this is a desperate situation for Kahn and the Timberwolves, and I could see your scenario happening. Perhaps a lock-out lowers fans excitement for ALL nba players, and with a new amnesty as well, this season may be different than any other. I would imagine packaging the amnesty with Williams would bring back someone extremely good.

eyeteeth · Post #13 » by **eyeteeth** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:25 pm

People are excited to see Derrick Williams play. There is a lot of reason to be concerned about Beasley's self discipline. NO way Williams gets traded.

shangrila wrote:
AQuintus wrote:
eyeteeth wrote:Meh. I'd bet $20 we start the season with the roster we have.

I would be kind of surprised if they didn't make at least some attempt to bring in more veterans, but I would be really surprised if any of the "core" guys (Love, Williams, Rubio, Beasley, Johnson, and Randolph) get moved.

Agreed. They won't be trading for Iggy or Kevin Martin, but maybe Raja Bell or Chuck Hayes might get added.

I could see this. In fact, I'd like to see this. Perhaps that's why I doubt it will happen.

cpfsf · Post #14 » by **cpfsf** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 5:40 pm

shrink wrote:Wow - that was a great post! I agree with every line, except for this one

cpfsf wrote: If a player was to be traded from our core (either now or till the deadline), I believe Derrick Williams would be the most likely candidate. I don't believe he'd be traded now, but I think it becomes more likely if we can take advantage of an amnesty clause. We’ve tried dangling him before (technically we offered the #2 pick), he’s never played a game so obviously there’s no real attachment to the guy, and we have huge holes at the 2 and 5 positions and Williams could be the key to landing the best center in franchise history (which isn’t saying much).

While trading a pick on draft night is common, history has shown that it's extremely rare to see a lottery pick get traded in his first year after the night is over. I suspect it's because desperate hometown fans start visualizing the guy in their favorite team's uniform, and the future superstar that the promising player may be, rather than the expected value of who he is. I can only think of it happening twice (you may recall Donyell Marshall), and both of those trades were eight months later, closer to the trade deadline.

Still, this is a desperate situation for Kahn and the Timberwolves, and I could see your scenario happening. Perhaps a lock-out lowers fans excitement for ALL nba players, and with a new amnesty as well, this season may be different than any other. I would imagine packaging the amnesty with Williams would bring back someone extremely good.

I knew a few would question that paragraph, but I can't say I disagree. Even Kahn said, "Derrick Williams is a Timberwolf and will be a Timberwolf for a long time." As it stands rights now, it's unlikely the team will make any major changes because the team hired a new coach and Minnesota has already explored several trades with no success. I still believe that Williams would be the most likely to be traded (over Love, Rubio, and Beasley) if and only if Minnesota can take advantage of the amnesty clause because several trades could be revisited. Either way, I don't think he would be traded, but I believe we'd see his name in some trade scenarios assuming a team needs Minnesota to use the amnesty clause.

Narf · Post #15 » by **Narf** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:33 pm

shrink wrote:I applaud David Kahn and Glen Taylor for acquiring some players that have the upside to give fans hope. However, while David Kahn still looks for his "signature move, I would find it difficult to make trades right now because of the big holes on our team right now.

So far Khan's signature moves were:
Miller/Foye for Rubio/Expiring (after further tweeking)
Cap space + 2nds for Beasley

Those 2 moves are carrying him, of course. But they are pretty effing nice.

Krapinsky · Post #16 » by **Krapinsky** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 5:10 pm

I'm certainly not attached to Derrick Williams. I don't think the majority of fans are either. There's been no summer league and so the majority of fans haven't even seen him play. Aside from two games in the NCAA tournament, Williams was never much of an NCAA 'star' in his two year stint and so casual observers know little to nothing about DW the player. Moreover, since the draft little has been written about Williams in a Wolves jersey as the main NBA strories here have been the lockout, Rubio, and Adelman. Thus, if there was ever a #2 pick that was ripe for trading, it's probably DW.

All that said, I sort of take Khan at his word when he says things like "Williams is here to stay, I've told him to buy a house", and so I'd be very surprised if we traded him.