RealGM Top 100 List #43

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#61 » by drza » Sat Sep 24, 2011 2:17 pm

Snakebites wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:I
Rodman was one of my least favorite players (not at first, when I liked him in Detroit but the more I saw of him the less I liked it) but his impact on teams with his GOAT level rebounding and outstanding post defense (he quit defending out on the floor consistently when he saw that rebounding got him more press and money) is easier to make a case for. It may be too high for him, and I liked the KJ nomination too, but I am not seeing any support for the other players I see as the best remaining (Unseld, Bobby Jones, Alex English, Chauncey Billups) . . . all of whom I liked unlike Rodman.


This push for Rodman just seems really premmature, and this is coming from someone who liked him.


Lol. Add me to the camp of guys who are NOT a Rodman fan but think that his impact was too large to ignore.

It looks like the key with Rodman is to vote opposite to your allegiance. If you like him, fight to keep him out. If you weren't a fan at all, try to get him on the list...
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#62 » by Snakebites » Sat Sep 24, 2011 2:21 pm

Alright Rodman fans, who are we going to rally behind next round to keep him out?

I just feel like there are a number of players with a strong case to be nominated next, and Rodman isn't one of them IMO.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#63 » by penbeast0 » Sat Sep 24, 2011 3:55 pm

If someone can show me how Ray Allen was better than Alex English, I'm open to switching my vote . . .
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#64 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Sep 24, 2011 6:40 pm

penbeast0 wrote:If someone can show me how Ray Allen was better than Alex English, I'm open to switching my vote . . .


I find it remarkably hard to compare these two. I don't think I could come up with a rebuttal against either opinion unless they gave details I disagreed with.

Question for people to ask themselves: What makes Nique clearly better than English?

At this point I'd lean to Allen over English, but I don't know if I'd have Nique over English, so I absolutely understand if English gets nominated soon.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#65 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Sep 24, 2011 6:46 pm

drza wrote:It looks like the key with Rodman is to vote opposite to your allegiance. If you like him, fight to keep him out. If you weren't a fan at all, try to get him on the list...


:lol: Awesome.

fwiw, I'm very happy Rodman is now getting serious nomination buzz...but as I compare him to my other top candidates he's not winning out.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#66 » by FJS » Sat Sep 24, 2011 6:59 pm

Vote: Iverson
Nominate: Worthy
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#67 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Sep 24, 2011 7:14 pm

Oh one thing everyone thinking about Rodman should think about: What does it say that his numbers tend to fall off pretty significantly come playoff time?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#68 » by Dr Positivity » Sat Sep 24, 2011 7:51 pm

@ drza: It seems to me like a lot of voters are in the mindset that Walt Frazier was a superstar player. I mean on the list so far, #21-#24 were all players with 5-7 year primes ie 70% of normal stars - 3 of those players are David Robinson, Dwyane Wade and Steve Nash and the other is Walt Frazier. So if people think Frazier was at a prime Robinson/Wade/Nash level, it's understandable Reed would get a short stick.

If you ask me, I'm not buying Frazier's ranking on this list nor the bizarre gap between him and Willis Reed, when Reed was more highly regarded at the time, has as impressive stats at his peak, and has a marginal gap in longevity. They were 1a and 1b, clearly - and Frazier couldn't help the Knicks above mediocrity without him. I really think he was Billups offensively. While his elite d and rebounding matters, I do think people can get a little crazy for defense at PG when clearly it's the least important defensive position - almost the basketball version of going nuts for MLB players who steal bases or are great fielders. It's really nice to have, but give me the elite hitting before any of that

But even with that said, I had Frazier at 27 and Reed at 39 on my personal list which is a bigger gap than I would've expected. All those players between them were pretty close together so I suppose those few things Frazier has more, mattered. Same thing will happen with Miller vs Allen and Nique vs English
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#69 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Sep 24, 2011 8:27 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:@ drza: It seems to me like a lot of voters are in the mindset that Walt Frazier was a superstar player. I mean on the list so far, #21-#24 were all players with 5-7 year primes ie 70% of normal stars - 3 of those players are David Robinson, Dwyane Wade and Steve Nash and the other is Walt Frazier. So if people think Frazier was at a prime Robinson/Wade/Nash level, it's understandable Reed would get a short stick.

If you ask me, I'm not buying Frazier's ranking on this list nor the bizarre gap between him and Willis Reed, when Reed was more highly regarded at the time, has as impressive stats at his peak, and has a marginal gap in longevity. They were 1a and 1b, clearly - and Frazier couldn't help the Knicks above mediocrity without him. I really think he was Billups offensively. While his elite d and rebounding matters, I do think people can get a little crazy for defense at PG when clearly it's the least important defensive position - almost the basketball version of going nuts for MLB players who steal bases or are great fielders. It's really nice to have, but give me the elite hitting before any of that

But even with that said, I had Frazier at 27 and Reed at 39 on my personal list which is a bigger gap than I would've expected. All those players between them were pretty close together so I suppose those few things Frazier has more, mattered. Same thing will happen with Miller vs Allen and Nique vs English


I can see the sense in this. Let me make a few comments though:

-"marginal gap in longevity". Reed had 4 10+ WS years, Frazier had 7. That's not a marginal difference in my book. To me if you've got a prime that lasts less than 5 years that's a serious short coming. 7 on the other hand is basically normal particularly for that era.

-"couldn't help the Knicks above mediocrity with Reed". Um, they made the finals without Reed trouncing a strong Boston team along the way and losing only to one of the greatest teams in history. I'll grant they weren't a top 2 team that season (Milwaukee was #2), but having a good case for 3rd in a year with 2 such great teams and doing it without Reed is really something.

Then there's the matter of when exactly these two guys had their primes. Reed's last season as a big star really happened in '69-70, and 2 years into a 6 year run as a scary-as-hell team. Frazier on the other hand was in his prime for that entire duration.

I know people knock Frazier for saying "well when the supporting talent started disappearing, so did Frazier", but how can that be as unimpressive as the Reed story which was one where the team kept on going without him? Granted they were at their best when both Reed & Frazier were at the top of their game in '69-70, but if we were to attach one player to be the face of the Knicks' run, I don't see how it can rationally be anyone but Frazier.

Last, as far as the gap between the players on this list, any time people start talking like that it worries me. Voting someone in because you don't want him to be too far away from someone else, rather than because he deserves the spot more than the current group of nominees corrupts thinking. It's true that it's good to periodically do sanity checks and make sure you haven't drifted from your intended criteria, but the reality is that the nature of this list is a very inexact science, and two wrongs don't make a right.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#70 » by therealbig3 » Sat Sep 24, 2011 8:46 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:If someone can show me how Ray Allen was better than Alex English, I'm open to switching my vote . . .


I find it remarkably hard to compare these two. I don't think I could come up with a rebuttal against either opinion unless they gave details I disagreed with.

Question for people to ask themselves: What makes Nique clearly better than English?

At this point I'd lean to Allen over English, but I don't know if I'd have Nique over English, so I absolutely understand if English gets nominated soon.


I actually have English one spot ahead of Nique on my list. The only conceivable advantage I can see for Nique is his rebounding. English is actually at 45 on my list, even though I pretty much just remembered him a couple of rounds ago lol. I think he's been pretty overlooked.

And I've been moving around a bunch of players on my list for a while now, and I don't have McAdoo as low as I had him before, as I have him ahead of Allen and Lanier now...but why McAdoo over English? English looks like a slightly worse Paul Pierce from the numbers, it looks like he had a big impact (from what ElGee posted), and he's been called a good defender. He's got good longevity and great durability.

If you have a star offensive wing vs a star offensive big, and unless that big is Shaq or Kareem...wouldn't the star offensive wing be the better offensive player? I don't know what McAdoo's defense was like, but I've never heard him called a star defensive player.

It's just hard for me to consider big men who don't contribute much on defense over good offensive wings.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#71 » by Laimbeer » Sat Sep 24, 2011 8:53 pm

Rodman/Schayes?

Rodman was a role player. A great one, but a role player. You'd never make him your first or second option. He made two third teams, and played in two all-star games. When we get into guys of this type, he's at the top of the list. I don't think great rebounding and whatever defensive impact a forward can have put above a guy like Schayes. Six first teams, six seconds, 12 straight all star games. He was always among the league leaders in scoring AND rebounding. Just a more complete and impactful player.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#72 » by therealbig3 » Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:03 pm

Rodman all-around is a very controversial pick (a defensible one, but controversial)...you have to truly believe that his rebounding and defense was GOAT-caliber and his impact was superstar-level...if that's the case, he has a great argument to be voted in now.

But concerning Rodman's defense...multiple people have said that his defense declined when he decided to be a big-time rebounder.

And how big is his defensive impact compared to the likes of Mutombo, Duncan, KG, Wallace, etc.? In other words, shot blockers. Protecting the rim is a big part of team defense, and a defensive anchor has the biggest impact out of any defender. Was Rodman a defensive anchor? He seems like a guy who was a great man defender, but wasn't all-time great in terms of team defense.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#73 » by Dr Positivity » Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:03 pm

The years are pretty clearly 5 vs 7 to me. I mean the year where Frazier had 12 WS and Reed had 8, Frazier put up 17/8/6 and Reed put up 21/15. Reed made 2nd team All-NBA while Frazier didn't get recognition, their PERs were 19.7 for Reed vs 20.2 for Frazier. Reed is in his 3rd year where historically impact shows up more than 1st and 2nd, Frazier is on his 2nd. Players on better teams get a bigger WS bump, otherwise I see no reason to say Frazier's 69 matters more than Reed's 67. Now to be fair there is some concern about Reed's effectiveness by the PS in 71. 5 or 4.5 vs 7 is a gap, but in both situations you have a fair but not great window and what matters most is how good they are

Fair enough at the commenting on gaps alone, as I mentioned I have it as 27 vs 39 which isn't substantially different in either direction than 23 vs 42. I have a bigger issue with Frazier's ranking than Reed's because I have a clear and identifiable difference between Nash and Frazier (primary offense just matters more for PGs than secondary defense and rebounding help), Pippen and Frazier (Pippen is a big Frazier in the same way KG is a big Pippen. Everything's the same except Pippen's size gives him more defensive impact) and while Ewing and Havlicek who are above Frazier on my list aren't as directly comparable, it'd be really hard for me not to prefer them just on the extra longevity alone since I think Frazier is at best as good a player as them, personally
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#74 » by penbeast0 » Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:00 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Oh one thing everyone thinking about Rodman should think about: What does it say that his numbers tend to fall off pretty significantly come playoff time?


It says I wasn't paying enough attention (to be fair, RL is kicking my ass right now in multiple ways) and should have nominated Alex English.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#75 » by ElGee » Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:06 pm

I'll switch to McAdoo for nomination since for some reason no one considers Bob Lanier, Ray Allen, Sam Jones or Marques Johnson viable (really? with Moncrief nominated? really?)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#76 » by ElGee » Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:19 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Oh one thing everyone thinking about Rodman should think about: What does it say that his numbers tend to fall off pretty significantly come playoff time?


This is something I assumed people were factoring in, but maybe not (I tried to go through year-by-year with Rodman to point out many of his postseasons). I've never cared about small statistical changes unless I really know the context, but in Dennis' case I think there are few serious (and repetitive issues) about his playoffs:

92 - This is the year he wins an NBA POM and drops his first 26% TRB% and he doesn't see a lot of the court in 3 games vs. New York. And it was not because of foul trouble.

95 - He has some big games but is widely criticized for some bizarre defensive practices (not going out to defend shooters). Arguably the height of his off-court issues too. HeHe was benched for G4 of the LAL series (SAS win) for his behavior. He lost his shoes in G1 of the Houston series. Etc. etc.

97 - 28 mpg and 8 rpg. The worst PS of his prime IMO and again, amidst a turmoil of off-court troubles (he was ejected 3 times in the first 2 weeks of the PS).

So to me, it's a mental thing with Dennis. He wasn't always in the right place, and that mattered when it mattered. Makes it impossible for me to see him having a peak season above 2011 LaMarcus Aldridge, 2007 Amare Stoudemire, 2004 Jermaine O'Neal and certainly no better than Ray Allen's best or Robert Parish's.

If that's the case, and he only had a few seasons at that peak (and a few other in All-Star level territory), how on earth could I rank him about the next ~20 viable candidates?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#77 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:21 pm

therealbig3 wrote:I actually have English one spot ahead of Nique on my list. The only conceivable advantage I can see for Nique is his rebounding. English is actually at 45 on my list, even though I pretty much just remembered him a couple of rounds ago lol. I think he's been pretty overlooked.

And I've been moving around a bunch of players on my list for a while now, and I don't have McAdoo as low as I had him before, as I have him ahead of Allen and Lanier now...but why McAdoo over English? English looks like a slightly worse Paul Pierce from the numbers, it looks like he had a big impact (from what ElGee posted), and he's been called a good defender. He's got good longevity and great durability.

If you have a star offensive wing vs a star offensive big, and unless that big is Shaq or Kareem...wouldn't the star offensive wing be the better offensive player? I don't know what McAdoo's defense was like, but I've never heard him called a star defensive player.

It's just hard for me to consider big men who don't contribute much on defense over good offensive wings.


I think it's important to really understand McAdoo. People should watch this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD4vbr-280Q

This is not a traditional big man. This is a man who can handle the ball, post up, drive, and there may not have been a better shooting big man until Dirk. An absolute nightmare of a mismatch.

I'm fine if people pick English over Mac because of longevity, but if you don't understand how singular Mac was, you owe it to yourself to spend a little more time on him.

Incidentally, his nephew is currently projected to go #2 in DraftExpress' 2013 Mock Draft.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2013/

James McAdoo is remarkably similar to his nephew in size and shape, and in the modern game that right fully call him a PF rather than a C.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#78 » by penbeast0 » Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:28 pm

Ok, let’s look at Ray Allen v. Alex English. Allen had a much more featured role in Milwaukee and Seattle than English did in Denver but English played in a more free wheeling and fast paced offense. English was the better defender, rebounder (though about the same relative to position) and passer (by a little); but both are being considered for this list pretty much purely as scorers.

Ray Allen has averaged 37mpg for 15 years scoring 20.2pts at a ts% of .578 (arguably the greatest 3 point shooter of all time)
Alex English averaged 31mpg (didn’t come into the league with a big splash and last couple of years had some serious falloff) for 15 years averaging 21.5 ppg on .556 ts%
If you look at it per 36 minutes, English averages 24.2ppg v. 19.7ppg for Allen
And, if you look at their playoffs, Allen averaged 19.4/4/3.4 in 39.5 minutes while English averaged 24.4/5.5/4.3 in 35.7 minutes (yes, over 20% more points in 4 less minutes) though Allen retains his efficiency edge .592 to .556. (PER for those who love it favors English 19.9 to 19.2; 19.9 to 17.8 in the playoffs). Of course, Allen has been more successful in the playoffs, particularly in Boston (4348 playoff minutes to 2427 for English) where his role was diminished which may account for his falloff in points.
Still, it seems to me the numbers favor English by a little.


[i] Oh and the reason I don't vote for McAdoo isn't his talent which is deserving and pretty unique historically (Dirk, Dan Issel, that's about it I can think of); it's his selfish attitude, lack of defensive intensity, and substance abuse issues. There's a reason why a guy still putting up numbers close to his MVP ones was traded for John Gianelli and a mid 1st then kicked around the league in what should have been his prime. I will vote for an Unseld or Reed over a McAdoo or Spencer Haywood despite the big numbers -- what about Buffalo's defensive numbers, do they show McAdoo having a star impact?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#79 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:43 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:The years are pretty clearly 5 vs 7 to me. I mean the year where Frazier had 12 WS and Reed had 8, Frazier put up 17/8/6 and Reed put up 21/15. Reed made 2nd team All-NBA while Frazier didn't get recognition, their PERs were 19.7 for Reed vs 20.2 for Frazier. Reed is in his 3rd year where historically impact shows up more than 1st and 2nd, Frazier is on his 2nd. Players on better teams get a bigger WS bump, otherwise I see no reason to say Frazier's 69 matters more than Reed's 67. Now to be fair there is some concern about Reed's effectiveness by the PS in 71. 5 or 4.5 vs 7 is a gap, but in both situations you have a fair but not great window and what matters most is how good they are

Fair enough at the commenting on gaps alone, as I mentioned I have it as 27 vs 39 which isn't substantially different in either direction than 23 vs 42. I have a bigger issue with Frazier's ranking than Reed's because I have a clear and identifiable difference between Nash and Frazier (primary offense just matters more for PGs than secondary defense and rebounding help), Pippen and Frazier (Pippen is a big Frazier in the same way KG is a big Pippen. Everything's the same except Pippen's size gives him more defensive impact) and while Ewing and Havlicek who are above Frazier on my list aren't as directly comparable, it'd be really hard for me not to prefer them just on the extra longevity alone since I think Frazier is at best as good a player as them, personally


A good post. A couple thoughts:

-The statement about Win Shares inflating the impact of players on good teams is a reasonable one. However, it also begs us to look at the details of Reed & the Knicks in '67. He has a very tiny amount of defensive Win Shares, why is that? Well because estimates by b-r & ElGee both say the Knicks defense was utterly horrendous. Worst in the league-ish.

And Reed is a center. That's kind of a big deal, no? I understand that he can't do everything by himself, but still.

-Frazier's defense. The thing I brought up with Frazier was the distinct impact he could have in that place & time. Watch Game 5 of the 1970 finals. The Lakers' offense looks like they don't know what hit them with the ridiculous pressure the Knicks put on the Laker perimeter players.

That I think makes both his reputation for defensive impact quite realistic...and makes it questionable how it would translate to today.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #43 

Post#80 » by penbeast0 » Sun Sep 25, 2011 12:21 am

Well, in 67, Reed was the PF, Bellamy was the C but that shouldn't change things that much
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