Week 5: Non Packers

Wilford Brimley · Post #1 » by **Wilford Brimley** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 3:32 pm

No @CAR
Oak @HOU
Ari @MIN
Kc @IND
Sea @NYG
Phi @BUF
Cin @JAC
Ten @PIT
Tb @SF
Nyj @NE
Sd @DEN
Chi @DET

NFC North in bold.

-Will lol when (not if) BUF beats PHI.

-Will lol when MN goes 0-5

-Detroit will trash Chicago; that place will be rockin on Monday night.

PkrsBcksGphsMqt · Post #2 » by **PkrsBcksGphsMqt** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 3:39 pm

I'm a Viking fan for the rest of the year, no way do I want them getting Luck.

Post #3 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 3:39 pm

I'm gonna be worried when Minnesota goes 0-5.

I said it before the season started, but they're truly one of the worst teams in the league. Anyone taking any sort of delight in their season should stop, now.

Like Manning, he's going to be a guy that makes his team a contender every season he's under center.

Newz · Post #4 » by **Newz** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 3:42 pm

I'm starting to think Luck is getting over hyped.

Comparing his impact to Manning without even seeing him play an NFL game? I'll believe it when I see it. Until then I'll just continue to say he's a great prospect.

Scoops · Post #5 » by **Scoops** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 3:45 pm

Wilford Brimley wrote:-Detroit will trash Chicago; that place will be rockin on Monday night.

Still not sold on the Lions being anything better than mediocre.

LUKE23 · Post #6 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 3:47 pm

PkrsBcksGphsMqt wrote:I'm a Viking fan for the rest of the year, no way do I want them getting Luck.

Yep.

PkrsBcksGphsMqt · Post #7 » by **PkrsBcksGphsMqt** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 3:49 pm

Newz wrote:I'm starting to think Luck is getting over hyped.

Comparing his impact to Manning without even seeing him play an NFL game? I'll believe it when I see it. Until then I'll just continue to say he's a great prospect.

You can still hedge your bet by cheering for the Queens not to get the #1 pick.

PkrsBcksGphsMqt · Post #8 » by **PkrsBcksGphsMqt** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 3:50 pm

The Vikings are such a mess of a franchise that if they got the #1 pick I think there is a chance they trade the pick or take someone else since they spent a first round pick on Ponder.

Newz · Post #9 » by **Newz** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 3:52 pm

PkrsBcksGphsMqt wrote:
Newz wrote:I'm starting to think Luck is getting over hyped.

Comparing his impact to Manning without even seeing him play an NFL game? I'll believe it when I see it. Until then I'll just continue to say he's a great prospect.

You can still hedge your bet by cheering for the Queens not to get the #1 pick.

Oh, I'm not saying I don't care if they get him. I'd rather be in a division that doesn't have one of the better QB prospects ever.

I'm just saying I think it's a little crazy to say he's going to have a Manning like impact when you've never seen him play an NFL game. I think the NFL above all other sports has proven to be unpredictable. How many people thought Cam Newton was going to do what he is doing?

I'd say a very small percentage of people. Even people who thought he'd be good though it'd be because of his mobility and physical talent at first, not his arm. Now he comes out and he's tossing for nearly 400 yards every game.

Luck is definitely a great pick. I'd say if you get him with the number one pick, you are assuring yourself you have at least a good QB for the next 10+ years, with a chance to get a great one. Not just "We took Andrew Luck, we now have the best QB in the NFL for the next 10+ seasons".

Post #10 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 3:53 pm

Dream scenario: Vikings get the #1 pick, Luck is like, "OH HELLZ NO I AIN'T GOING TO MINNESNOWTA I'LL STICK AROUND STANFORD ANOTHER YEAR K THX BAI" and the Vikings are SOL.

PkrsBcksGphsMqt · Post #11 » by **PkrsBcksGphsMqt** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 4:03 pm

DrugBust wrote:Dream scenario: Vikings get the #1 pick, Luck is like, "OH HELLZ NO I AIN'T GOING TO MINNESNOWTA I'LL STICK AROUND STANFORD ANOTHER YEAR K THX BAI" and the Vikings are SOL.

Except he's a senior.

EDIT: Or maybe he isn't. ESPN says he is but Wikipedia says Junior. Looks like ESPN is wrong. My bad.

Post #12 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 4:06 pm

He's a red-shirt junior. He could still play another season after this one.

jakecronus8 · Post #13 » by **jakecronus8** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 5:06 pm

Newz wrote:
PkrsBcksGphsMqt wrote:
Newz wrote:I'm starting to think Luck is getting over hyped.

Comparing his impact to Manning without even seeing him play an NFL game? I'll believe it when I see it. Until then I'll just continue to say he's a great prospect.

You can still hedge your bet by cheering for the Queens not to get the #1 pick.

I'm just saying I think it's a little crazy to say he's going to have a Manning like impact when you've never seen him play an NFL game. I think the NFL above all other sports has proven to be unpredictable. How many people thought Cam Newton was going to do what he is doing?

I'd say a very small percentage of people. Even people who thought he'd be good though it'd be because of his mobility and physical talent at first, not his arm. Now he comes out and he's tossing for nearly 400 yards every game.

Love being right about Cam. LH and Chuckles both owe ms a beer for laughing at me during the draft party. Also, I believe we discussed it during the Badger game but couldn't agree with you more about Luck. Yeah he looks like a good player but I don't see anything about him that tells me he's the next Manning. I still like Cam's upside more and would take him over Luck

Newz · Post #14 » by **Newz** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 5:13 pm

I'd also take Cam over Luck at this point.

Cam would be in the top 5 players I'd start a franchise with at the moment. Obviously Rodgers is number one by a mile, but I think you could argue Cam with anyone else after that. He has been amazing so far.

LUKE23 · Post #15 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 5:20 pm

I'll take Luck 10 times out of 10 over Cam. I also think it's pretty silly to say its to early too say this and that about Luck, but we can say this and that about Newton based on four games. I'll gladly admit Newton looks a lot better than I thought he'd be so far, but in watching his overall skillset vs. Luck's, Luck's projects more to the pros. Newton will be the better runner, but in all honesty, unless it is Vick type scrambling ability (Newton isn't), it's not as big of a factor to me in evaluating QB's as pocket passing ability. Luck just has it all in terms of throws he can make, strength, accuracy, etc. We'll see who the better pro is, my money is on Luck.

I also need to say, for as much pub as Cam's start has received, he is still only at 5 TD/5 INT and a shade under 60% completion.

Newz · Post #16 » by **Newz** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 5:32 pm

LUKE23 wrote:I'll take Luck 10 times out of 10 over Cam. I also think it's pretty silly to say its to early too say this and that about Luck, but we can say this and that about Newton based on four games. I'll gladly admit Newton looks a lot better than I thought he'd be so far, but in watching his overall skillset vs. Luck's, Luck's projects more to the pros. Newton will be the better runner, but in all honesty, unless it is Vick type scrambling ability (Newton isn't), it's not as big of a factor to me in evaluating QB's as pocket passing ability. Luck just has it all in terms of throws he can make, strength, accuracy, etc. We'll see who the better pro is, my money is on Luck.

I think it's fair to say everyone has a better feel for how good Newton will be in the NFL as opposed to Luck.

Four games certainly isn't a lot and it's too early to appoint Newton a superstar. But at least you've seen him put up great performances against NFL defenses. I'm also not sure what the 'pocket passer' argument has to do with anything. Newton has been excellent throwing the ball this year. People aren't excited about him because of his running ability (which is certainly a bonus), it's because he is putting up massive yardage numbers and looks very good as a passer.

LUKE23 · Post #17 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 5:38 pm

Newton has been excellent throwing the ball this year.

I don't know I'd say excellent. Excellent for a 21 year old rookie? Probably. Excellent vs. the rest of the league? I don't know.

He's 16th in QB rating, 6th in YPA, 21st in completion %, tied for 17th in TD, 27th in TD%, 19th in INT%.

Newz · Post #18 » by **Newz** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 5:39 pm

You threw out the 'I'd put my money on Luck' comment.

I would put my money on:

1. Luck not being as successful in his first four games as Cam has been.
2. Luck not having as good of a rookie year as Cam.

LUKE23 · Post #19 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 5:40 pm

1. Luck not being as successful in his first four games as Cam has been.
2. Luck not having as good of a rookie year as Cam.

#2 will be judged after the season, and either way I don't really care about rookie year. I'll take whoever ends up the best player. My money remains on Luck. My primary point was that while Newton has been a lot better than expected, the start needs to be put into perspective. Yeah, he's thrown for a lot of yards, but otherwise, probably slightly below average league-wide. Impressive for a rook? Yes.

Newz · Post #20 » by **Newz** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 5:44 pm

LUKE23 wrote:
1. Luck not being as successful in his first four games as Cam has been.
2. Luck not having as good of a rookie year as Cam.

#2 will be judged after the season, and either way I don't really care about rookie year. I'll take whoever ends up the best player. My money remains on Luck.

Thanks for the insight on how an entire season would be judged. I was guessing it would have to be judged after they both played a whole season as well... but I'm glad you clarified that for me.

I think Cam ends up being a better player. Though I definitely agree that both of them coming out, Luck is far more of a 'sure thing' than Cam. I think if you break down your odds when drafting Luck it lays out something like:

50% - Matt Ryan
40% - Phillip Rivers
5% - Manning
5% - Bust

Where as with most players I'd say that percentage chance to be a guy like Manning (Hall of Famer), Rivers (Perennial Pro Bowler) or Ryan (solid QB) are much smaller and the bust chance is a lot higher.