Greg Oden thoughts....

Narf · Post #1 » by **Narf** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 8:17 pm

It occurs to me that no one knows the health of Greg Oden better than Bill Bayno. When healthy, Oden is a top 5 center in the NBA hands down. If I were Khan, I'd bring Bayno in with the team doctors and Adelman and have a conversation about how likely it is that he'll recover and be reasonably healthy. According to Yahoo...
Since signing, Oden has played in 82 regular-season games, averaging 9.4 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Now the Oregonian reports that Oden is ready to get out of Portland and "feels like he'll sign the qualifying offer from the Blazers, play one season, then become an unrestricted free agent."

I know having 2 microfracture surgeries by age 23 makes him a high risk. But I've gotta say, if our goal is to win an NBA championship he might be worth the risk. What's a reasonable offer for Oden on his 1 year qualifying? And would you want him?

shangrila · Post #2 » by **shangrila** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 11:58 pm

Personally, I'd be fine with a contract like the one Darko got, maybe with the last year or two only guaranteed if he's only played a certain amount of games.

There's two problems I've seen with him, medically, that look somewhat fixable. Firstly, the Portland medical staff is a joke. A few years back they cleared Roy to play 10 days after he had surgery on one of his knees, so it's no wonder every man and his dog goes out injured on that team. Secondly, he bulked up ridiculously fast and I wouldn't be surprised if that had a lot to do with it, putting added strain on his lower body. IMO (and I'll admit I'm no doctor), if he can lose some upper body mass and replace it with lower body strength he should, in theory, have a better chance at health.

Post #3 » by **Calinks** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 12:24 am

I absolutely would take a flyer on Oden. Portland's medical staff is either EXTREMELY unlucky or sorry as hell. I'd gamble on the sorry as hell part and try and work with the kid. Even if it meant limiting his play I'd take him at a reasonable price. He is a great center when healthy. We could just put him in the Darko role and that alone would be a big improvement for our squad.

Narf · Post #4 » by **Narf** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 12:48 am

What's a good offer to make for him? I'm assuming Portland gave him the QO to get value for him, and thinks he's an asset at a 1 year, $8.8 mil contract. I'm a little torn about how much to give up for Oden.

cpfsf · Post #5 » by **cpfsf** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 1:43 am

I would limit his minutes in the regular season, and let him loose in the playoffs.

shrink · Post #6 » by **shrink** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 2:25 am

The new CBA may reduce the percentage of a contract that is guaranteed -- if a player can't perform. This would obviously greatly reduce the risk of giving a contract to Oden.

Narf · Post #7 » by **Narf** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 4:06 am

shrink wrote:The new CBA may reduce the percentage of a contract that is guaranteed -- if a player can't perform. This would obviously greatly reduce the risk of giving a contract to Oden.

I'm sure the players are going to insist that they can't be cut for being injured though. So if Oden needs another microfracture surgery he'll be paid until he's healthy again.

LordBaldric · Post #8 » by **LordBaldric** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 4:35 am

First of all, if you're talking about trading for him while he's on the QO, he can veto any potential trade since that would entail him losing his Bird rights. Also, since he would be losing his Bird rights, we couldn't resign him for anything exceeding our free cap space, and we have no idea what that is until the new CBA. Then, you have the issue that if he's willing to come here for whatever our cap space is, why even trade with Portland? Just sign him outright when he becomes a UFA after a likely shortened season (if there is one at all).

If you are wondering how much money would be fair to offer him as a UFA, that also seems like it's impossible to know until the new CBA is signed.

Narf · Post #9 » by **Narf** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 9:55 am

First off, if Oden wants out of Portland then why wouldn't he accept a trade here?

Second off, the old CBA rules no longer apply, and the new CBA has yet to be written. But I suspect there will be differences in the base year/qualifying offer rules as the old ones were stupid and everyone knows it.

Third, as I stated we're assuming Oden take's the $8.8 million QO from Portland and then gets traded. If that happened, we would be trading salary to get Oden and would have some cap space left over. But even if we don't have cap space, under the old CBA we could sign Oden to a non-Bird exception.

NON-BIRD EXCEPTION -- This exception allows a team to re-sign its own free agent to a salary starting at up to 120% of the player's salary in the previous season, 120% of the minimum salary, or the amount needed to tender a qualifying offer (if the player is a restricted free agent), whichever is greater. Raises are limited to 8% of the salary in the first year of the contract, and contracts are limited to five seasons when this exception is used.

So, from $8.8 million it goes to $10.55 million with 8% raises after that for 5 years. I'm sure they'll keep that rule, or one like it, in the new CBA as well so teams can resign the players they traded for. In other words, yes we can resign him regardless of cap space.

Post #10 » by **Basti** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 1:16 pm

Man, if we could get a hand on Oden (pun intended) I'd get a huge Bayno (which still would pale in comparison to Oden's Bayno).

It's just to early to talk about signing FAs and stuff. Let's have a season first

CeeDub15 · Post #11 » by **CeeDub15** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 5:42 pm

I think he is definetely worth the risk as well. Unless AR got alot bigger (which might be ture, i remember hearing he gained 20 pounds before the lockout and planned on staying in Minny this offseason to keep working), we need help at Center. Darko is ok, but imo, he is best suited as a backup.

Krapinsky · Post #12 » by **Krapinsky** » Mon Oct 3, 2011 8:27 pm

Much rather have the Cave man.

jade_hippo · Post #13 » by **jade_hippo** » Tue Oct 4, 2011 2:36 am

CeeDub15 wrote:I think he is definetely worth the risk as well. Unless AR got alot bigger (which might be ture, i remember hearing he gained 20 pounds before the lockout and planned on staying in Minny this offseason to keep working), we need help at Center. Darko is ok, but imo, he is best suited as a backup.

There has been a story about this every year this man has been in the league. Second coming of Joe Smith?

7-Day Dray · Post #14 » by **7-Day Dray** » Tue Oct 4, 2011 10:34 pm

shangrila wrote:Personally, I'd be fine with a contract like the one Darko got, maybe with the last year or two only guaranteed if he's only played a certain amount of games.

There's two problems I've seen with him, medically, that look somewhat fixable. Firstly, the Portland medical staff is a joke. A few years back they cleared Roy to play 10 days after he had surgery on one of his knees, so it's no wonder every man and his dog goes out injured on that team. Secondly, he bulked up ridiculously fast and I wouldn't be surprised if that had a lot to do with it, putting added strain on his lower body. IMO (and I'll admit I'm no doctor), if he can lose some upper body mass and replace it with lower body strength he should, in theory, have a better chance at health.

+1 Thank God someone else noticed this.

Foye · Post #15 » by **Foye** » Tue Oct 4, 2011 11:24 pm

7-Day Dray wrote:
shangrila wrote:Personally, I'd be fine with a contract like the one Darko got, maybe with the last year or two only guaranteed if he's only played a certain amount of games.

There's two problems I've seen with him, medically, that look somewhat fixable. Firstly, the Portland medical staff is a joke. A few years back they cleared Roy to play 10 days after he had surgery on one of his knees, so it's no wonder every man and his dog goes out injured on that team. Secondly, he bulked up ridiculously fast and I wouldn't be surprised if that had a lot to do with it, putting added strain on his lower body. IMO (and I'll admit I'm no doctor), if he can lose some upper body mass and replace it with lower body strength he should, in theory, have a better chance at health.

+1 Thank God someone else noticed this.

Martell Webster looked rather unhealthy last season as well even if our medical staff is better (which I HIGHLY doubt).
They always cleared Beasley to play although he clearly played under pain last season. In some games you knew right from the start Beasley wasn't fit and should've gotten a DND.
We didn't even rest him although the season was lost. Our medical staff is probably just as bad as the Blazers staff is.

Mattya · Post #16 » by **Mattya** » Tue Oct 4, 2011 11:37 pm

Wolves actually have a good medical and physical training staff. There is only so much you can do for sprained ankles. They will be a lot weaker even with rehab. Most of our guys who have had injuries while here came back and didn't get reinjured. Rashad McCants came back very strong, Al Jefferson came back a lot slimmer, Corey Brewer being the stick he is didn't get reinjured. KG is a prime example. The guy missed so little games for the frame that he had. Once he leaves he started breaking down. For Beasley's ankles, they will take a LONG time to become stable again. Hopefully he has been working on that over the summer. Our trainers are very good with rehab. They use everything TRX, Kettlebells, Pilates reformers a lot of stuff that will help rehab these guys especially lower body and core stregthening.

digitaldropoff · Post #17 » by **digitaldropoff** » Fri Oct 7, 2011 2:20 pm

Why does anyone think Oden will ever be a consistant threat/help to any team? The guy hasn't been healthy since he was a highschooler. Despite medical theories about putting too much strain on his lower body...sure, that's possible. It's more possible that his body was simply not built to withstand the up and down force that the basketball dishes out to ones body. The guy is big and tall, and he has some basketball skill. But he will never, ever play even 50 games in a year.....ever. Is he worth a Darko like contract...of course he is, but he and his agent will want more....and they'll get it from someone. But that's okay, because he will never, ever make it through a single season. His body is weak.

Esohny · Post #18 » by **Esohny** » Fri Oct 7, 2011 5:28 pm

But what about never, ever, ever ,ever?

moss_is_1 · Post #19 » by **moss_is_1** » Fri Oct 7, 2011 6:12 pm

digitaldropoff wrote:Why does anyone think Oden will ever be a consistant threat/help to any team? The guy hasn't been healthy since he was a highschooler. Despite medical theories about putting too much strain on his lower body...sure, that's possible. It's more possible that his body was simply not built to withstand the up and down force that the basketball dishes out to ones body. The guy is big and tall, and he has some basketball skill. But he will never, ever play even 50 games in a year.....ever. Is he worth a Darko like contract...of course he is, but he and his agent will want more....and they'll get it from someone. But that's okay, because he will never, ever make it through a single season. His body is weak.

2008-09 POR 61 games

Narf · Post #20 » by **Narf** » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:26 am

Jeeze Moss, way to bring facts into a rant.

And Digital, even if he's injured half his games, any year he's healthy come playoff time we'd be legit contenders. Oden/Love would dominate the boards like no other duo in the NBA and his help/post D would greatly improve our team.

Obviously it's a big risk with his health, but Oden is just too good to pass up IMO.