RealGM Top 100 #48

[ElGee]

More on 1983 and Bucks-76ers series.

In G1, Philly wins in OT but Marques has 30 (11-20, 8-11) 3 reb and 5 ast, including 12 straight to close the first half and cut a 16-point deficit to 2. Cheeks had a great game for Philly and Erving had 19. Moses was shut down basically (he only grabbed 12 boards in 48 minutes to boot). Moncrief was 1-9 for 7 points.

In G2, Moses bounced back with 26 and 17 (11-17, 4-7). Cheeks played well again. According to the Journal's Tom Enlund, "Marques Johnson was the only consistent bright spot, finished with 25 points and 11 rebounds." (12-19, 1-3) Moncrief played better with 21 (8-17, 5-5) and "Lanier, for the most part, did a good defensive job against Malone." It was another close loss for Mil.

G3 closed the door on the Bucks.

G4 Johnson had 19-10-8 (9-17, 1-3) to again spurn Milwaukee, this time to a victory. Bob Lanier had 5 blocks (17 points) and Moncrief had 17 and 9 (8-19, 1-1). Cheeks had a subpar game with 13 and 8 on poor shooting and Moses again was held down, 17-12 (7-19, 3-3). Erving had 19-6-5 (7-17) for Philly.

In G5 Philly clicked, with Toney scoring 30, Moses 28-17 (12-18, 4-4) and Doc 24 and 10 (10-19, 4-6). Marques led Milwaukee with 21-8-2 (7-21, 7-10). Lanier only played 26 min and Moncrief finished 4-12 (5-6) for 13 points 3 reb and 2 ast. The journal described Marques' 83 season as "magnificent," with no such praise for the shrinking Moncrief.

[lukekarts]

Glad to see Marques getting some praise. I had been considering nominating him but felt others thought he'd be going too high. Really good, kinda like a middle-class man's Pippen. Talking specifically SFs, Worthy, Hill & Marques need to be part of the discussion soon.

[ElGee]

re: Pau, Parish, Melo, Carter

Interesting group. I will vote for Carter at some point in this project if it gets there -- I think he was a positive impact player for enough years, despite being sort of a giant bonehead. But I don't think he was better than Bobby Dandridge who might turn out to be my top-75 gatekeeper.

As of right now, I have Anthony, Parish and Gasol clustered together in the mid 60s.

Which means there are pretty much 2 players we haven't discussed much who I have in front of them:

(1) Chris Webber
(2) David Thompson

Both of these guys are interesting for different reasons. I'm not sold on Webber one way or another -- he clearly has his issues, but then again he clearly has some great strengths. Thompson I love but he's got a Walton-longevity issue. That said, my personal list has Walton at 47 so Thompson isn't too far behind.

Also, should we just throw Chris Paul out of the project since no one wants to vote for him?

[drza]

Rockets go from 15 wins to 37 wins when Hayes arrives in 68-69.

Bullets go from 38 wins to 52 wins when Hayes arrives in 72-73.

From 1973-1981 the Bullets would make the playoffs 8 of 9 years, go to the finals twice and win a title. Hayes was their first option.

He was top ten in rebounding 13 times, top ten in scoring ten times. He's top ten all-time in rebounding and points, and played in 12 consecutive all-star games.

Vote: Hayes
Nominate: Prefer Schayes, but Unseld is realistic and deserving here, too. Nomination is for Unseld.

I had asked Laimbeer to provide a case for Hayes last thread, and I wanted to acknowledge that he did so. In fact, at first blush, it looks like a good start. As such, I'm hoping to see some discussion here.

For those that have spent more time on Hayes and/or lived through the time and/or aren't impressed by his inefficiency/attitude/whatever...is there a counterargument on the table? Laimbeer references big team jumps for both the '69 Rockets and the '73 Bullets when Hayes came on board...were there other big personnel changes as well, or did it appear that he was the main catalyst for these improvements?

I've seen it said (even in this thread, by ElGee I believe) that Hayes seemed like more of an MVP for those championship Bullets than did Unseld.

Is the ONLY mark against Hayes his inefficiency? Or has anyone that's looked in depth at him/his teams done so and concluded that he just wasn't having the impact that his accolades would suggest?

Because I must admit, as it stands right now he's very likely to get my vote very soon.

[therealbig3]

Vote: Chris Paul
Nominate: Grant Hill

I'll take Hill over Marques, but they're right next to each other on my list, so I'll switch to Marques if he gets some more love.

Not understanding the lack of love for Chris Paul, especially after we just voted in Bill Walton. Paul has better longevity and isn't that far off in terms of peak to be honest. How does one support a Bill Walton vote, then knock Paul for lack of longevity?

Although, I wouldn't be too upset if KJ or Mourning get voted in over Paul.

[Doctor MJ]

I'd be down for a week long intermission after #50, where we could discuss the upcoming players a bit

I like Unseld, but yeah, he seems a bit high.

It pains me to say this since I really hate the way they approach the game, but I think Melo and Carter should get in soon. Melo's resume in particular - 8 seasons in the league with 6 of them as a recognized superstar (plus is a good player his first 2 years) - 3x 3rd team All-NBA and 1x 2nd team. Has made the playoffs every year, anchored 53 and 54 W teams and people are always going to underestimate how close the 09 Nuggets were to the title, they had 4th quarter leads in Games 1 and 3 and in my opinion, were outplaying the Lakers in both games with Pau and Odom being mentally MIA. Were a few Trevor Ariza plays or Billups producing away and I think that was the real Finals

Again, I don't particularly like the guy, but tangible production on the court still matters most and a player who can draw lots of double teams and attention and has proven he can lead elite teams deserves some credit. I think like Elvin, him and Carter have paid the price for their lack of intangibles since there isn't a ton to seperate them from Pierce and Nique otherwise

My next batch of nominations in order unless I'm forgetting someone:

Pau
Parish/Melo
Melo/Parish
Hill
Marques
Carter

I must have missed your previous post on this. I don't think Melo belongs anywhere in the conversation right now.

Melo's never been a Top 10 player my advanced box score metrics like PER or WS, and the evidence of his actual impact by +/- indicates he's much less valuable than even that.

For some perspective, here's the ranking of star contemporary players we've discussed in this project based on the '03-09 and '05-'11 APM respectively:

Code: Select all

James       2  1
Garnett     1  3
Wade        5  7
Nash       11  4
Ginobili    3  5
Paul        6  8
Nowitzki   14  2
Duncan      4 10
Bryant      8 13
Pierce     10 18
Howard     42  9
Gasol      20 51
Allen      56 28
McGrady    24 101
Carter     72 44
Kidd       29 43
Melo      102 70

Then there's the matter that the team literally did fine after he forced them to trade him.

Tangible production matters, but Melo is not being compare with scrubs here. I don't see how to put Melo up against anyone who I actually believe was worthy of MVP consideration. Melo's clearly never been a top 10 player in my POY rankings, by comparison Marques was multiple times, and made top 5 a couple times, and I'm not even sure if I'll nominate him soon. I just know that it will be long before I'd nominate Melo.

[Doctor MJ]

So yeah, list of current players I expect to rank ahead of Melo (simply ordered by draft year):

Grant Hill
Ben Wallace
Chauncey Billups
Vince Carter
Manu Ginobili
Elton Brand
Shawn Marion
Pau Gasol
Tony Parker
Amare Stoudemire
Yao Ming
Chris Bosh
Deron Williams

I'm on the fence about Kevin Durant

Talk me down fellas

[Snakebites]

List looks good to me.

I might argue against Yao on the basis of short peak and lack of consistent play, and Marion because I just didn't think that much of his game, but I agree with the general sentiment.

[Doctor MJ]

I might argue against Yao on the basis of short peak and lack of consistent play, and Marion because I just didn't think that much of his game, but I agree with the general sentiment.

Those are legit reasons why those guys might not make my Top 100, but aren't enough to put them below Melo in my book.

[Snakebites]

Yeah, I will definitely support the notion that any talk about Anthony would be very premature.

The notion of him being a few spots away from a nomination makes me a little twitchy.

[Snakebites]

Vote: Chris Paul
Nominate: Grant Hill

I'll take Hill over Marques, but they're right next to each other on my list, so I'll switch to Marques if he gets some more love.

Not understanding the lack of love for Chris Paul, especially after we just voted in Bill Walton. Paul has better longevity and isn't that far off in terms of peak to be honest. How does one support a Bill Walton vote, then knock Paul for lack of longevity?

Although, I wouldn't be too upset if KJ or Mourning get voted in over Paul.

They aren't nearly as close in peak as you're making it sound.

[ronnymac2]

Vote: Alonzo Mourning

Nominate: Grant Hill

[ElGee]

And if it's still allowed:

vote: Chris Paul
nominate: Marques Johnson

[Fencer reregistered]

Vote: Mourning
Nominate: Marques Johnson

[Dr Positivity]

On the Melo thing

- His PER and WS are hurt by a) the Nuggets fast pace, which I'm convinced did virtually nothing for Melo's production based on the fact that he wasn't the one taking those fastbreak shots and seems like exactly the type of player that'd actually fit more in a slow halfcourt system. A team who uses a lot of fastbreak possessions actually ends up with less halfcourt ones, I'm fairly certain. I did some quick math and found multiplying Melo's WS by 1.2x puts it right where it feels accurate for me, based on other players. For example his best season (2010) goes from 7.9 to 9.5 in 69 Gs, which extrapolated to 82 would've been 11.3 WS - scoring 28ppg on the 3rd best offense in the league should make 11 WS even conservative. It's also right around Nique's better seasons and a whole swack of 10-12 WS tier 2 guys, and it would've put him about 7th in the league that season. x1.2 would also give him some other seasons where he's either top 10 in WS or would've been with 82. Also, b) Having 3 65-69 G seasons. Now it matters if you miss 13-17 Gs, but overall, I'm not *that* concerned since the player will still be there in the PS. If the goal is to win a title, you won't miss the playoffs because of a 15 G absence if you're a contender.

I don't put much into the Nuggets and Knicks play after the trade. The Nuggets depth was just near 00 Blazers type freakish, they basically had a starting lineup coming off the bench. As for the Knicks, that was just a horribly constructed team. No C/rebounding and defense, no 3pt shooting SG, Melo and Amare just don't fit together, and probably most importantly, they had one of the worst benches I've ever seen. I don't blame Melo for that any more than the failed Iverson-Melo experiment. If Melo got traded to the Milwaukee Bucks this summer I think we'd be looking at a borderline contender.

The thing with Melo is, I understand the concerns about the ok efficency and occasional ball stopping. But Denver's offense has never had a problem with ball movement overall so how bad can it be? What I know is Melo is FEARED by opposing teams. He clearly has a ton of scoring skill that you have to account for. The key to offense is having dangerous shots and any time Melo has it, it's dangerous. I think Melo has done a lot to help his teammates, as shown by the fact that they've always seemed to find nice shots inside for guys like Nene and nice 3s outside. That doesn't happen in the halfcourt with a double team guy. I know that I can build a good team with Melo based on putting defenders and shooters and a PG around him. I just don't see many guys I'd feel confident I can build something around 50 Ws to contender with as the best player.

I'm fine with Hill, Marques, Pau, Parish, Carter, Manu all going before him though. Understandably I think Deron, Amare, Bosh aren't *that* far away on this list either. I know that I never felt Bosh was having as much impact on his team's as Melo though, the gap in success in just massive between the Nuggets and Raptors while they were there. Bosh's Heat season was underrated though. As for Amare, I think he has a negative defensive impact because he's a big man who's not caring all that much but he also has massive offensive seasons.

Brand, TP, Marion over Melo? I just don't think they put as much pressure on the other team as Melo does, or even close to. And Yao's availability is just brutal

[Dr Positivity]

There's also the fact that Melo, Nique and Durant all had their most success with similarly constructed rosters

PG is the 2nd best statistical player - Billups, Westbrook, Doc Rivers
Big guys who's role is cleaning up baskets at a low volume and defending/rebounding - Nene/Martin/Anderson, Ibaka/Perkins/Collision, Willis/Levingston/Rollins/Carr
3pt shooting 6th man - Smith, Harden, McGee/Johnson + starting SG who doesn't look as important Afflalo/Jones, Thabo, Wittman

Interestingly, Nique's team looks like the weakest by this measure, but he also had the most success (57 W 7 SRS season).

Once again, I don't love Melo, but it's something to think about as we're at the stage now where anyone who's a fringe top 10 player for an extended period of time deserves a strong look

[Dr Positivity]

Webber is another one who's probably in the next 20 or so for me... I think you've got 3 legit 2nd team All-NBA+ caliber seasons (99-01), plus 02 where he plays 54 Gs but is otherwise excellent... while pre and post Sac Webber has concerns, it isn't *nothing*.

[Fencer reregistered]

Guys who I assume are making the list at some point:

Sam Jones, Greer, Arizin, Schayes

Worthy, Marques Johnson, Ray Allen

Parish

Thurmond

Monroe

Bobby Jones, Rodman

Billups

Discussion of any of them might be in order

Guys I'm not so sure about:

Dennis Johnson -- didn't feel like that much of an offensive player on the Celtics, except in crunch time. And I'm not sure whether his defensive results match his reputation.

Vince Carter -- the visible quitting on his team is a HUGE black mark. Leading a team into the 2nd round of the playoffs isn't really enough to guarantee a spot on the list.

Ama're -- defense

Maravich -- what's the case for him?

Archibald -- ditto

[Snakebites]

I realize there are a TON of potentially deserving players, but is broadening who we are talking about really the best way to get a proper discussion going?

There's no way we can discuss all of these players now, let alone come to a consensus.

[penbeast0]

Is the case for Amare really any worse than the case for Lanier or McAdoo? All were great offense, weak defense players. Lanier played longer but never even made an all-NBA squad where Amare made a number of All-NBA 1st teams; and while McAdoo won an MVP and may have peaked a little higher, Amare has a longer peak and no drug type issues.