@ Dr MJ
Comparing Melo to Amare is interesting because I think Amare is one example of APM underrating a player's impact. It's long held him as a player ranging from mediocore to negative, but the results differ pretty strongly - Both NY and the Phoenix had about a 10 W swing in caliber with Amare changing teams. The fact that both teams had a swing like that all but confirms Amare's value to me
Two other things, looking at the RAPM on this
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking- Melo and Amare's
offensive numbers are excellent. Since we're talking about Melo, he's at 3.0: I counted LBJ, Wade, Manu, Kobe, Paul, Nash, Dirk, Baron, Peja, Pierce, Kidd, Billups, Allen, Lawson, Deron, Jamison, Redd, Terry, Roy, Garnett as players at 3.0 or higher. So that's 18 guys, but Baron, Lawson, Terry's rankings look pretty questionable just from common sense, and there's a slight non overlap between recent players like Roy and primes half a decade ago like Peja. So actually, RAPM is almost right there with popular perception on Melo as a top 15 offensive player, it's certainly within variable range of top 10 to 15. The problem with Melo's RAPM is his defensive numbers are awful. But when I look at Melo, I see that's he's athletic enough to rotate hard and he's played on lots of respectable defensive teams. I'm concerned about Melo's d, but not that concerned. My view with offensive perimeter superstars is I want the best offensive player unless they're *brutal*, while defense can be covered elsewhere. I mean we did vote in George Gervin and Steve Nash a long time ago
- There's other rankings near Amare and Melo that I find... questionable. Tyson Chandler is below both even though his value has been apparant every place he's gone and left. Deron isn't higher than them and he's someone who just passes any eye/logic test for a player who should be positive impact. Ben Wallace and Joakim Noah are lower than them, Granger is below them, Luis Scola is barely positive, David West is at 0, Rondo is negative, Wes Matthews is negative, Haslem is very negative. If Melo and Amare were the only rankings that looked far off from my personal perspective (and the fact that they're actually still top 20/30 offensive players by RAPM means they aren't that far off) I'd be more inclined to believe it's right about Melo, but there is a whole swack of rankings that don't pass the logic test for me at all. We KNOW guys like Chandler, Wallace, Noah, Deron, Scola, Haslem, Rondo etc. have value and it's pretty clear to me that RAPM is just dead wrong on them
