RealGM Top 100 List #50

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#41 » by lorak » Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:25 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Literally, he came, the offense didn't get noticeably better.


Dantley clearly has less impact in Detroit than in Utah (however '88 and '89 Pistons are two of three best offensive Detroit teams during Isiah career), so why not to look at how he changed Jazz offense?
Look, when he joined Jazz in '80 Utah offense improved (in comparison with '79 season) by +3.1 ortg relatively to LA (but still was below LA). When he left Utah they regressed (!) offensively by -0.9 despite having second year Malone and third year Stockton.

Also keep in mind, that during first three seasons in Utah, Jazz without Dantley were 2-15!
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#42 » by penbeast0 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:54 am

How were they defensively Commish -- did Dantley actually negatively impact the Piston's defense as one would expect from his detractors and if so, by how much?

For Dantley haters, it seems he does have a positive impact according to what ronnymac and David Stern just posted -- rebuttals?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#43 » by penbeast0 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 12:01 pm

Thurmond v. Mutombo -- both big physical defensive players. Thurmond is the better man defender, Mutombo the better shotblocker, both great on that end. Mutombo on the offensive end was efficient but had poor hands and was a poor passer out of the post, he can get you 10-15ppg but can't scale it up. Thurmond was capable of 20ppg but was in love with his midrange jumper which sucked . . . offensively he is a poor man's Elvin Hayes/Jermaine O'Neal . . . one of the most inefficient scoring bigs ever. I rate Mutombo higher but am interested in comparing the two.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#44 » by lorak » Mon Oct 10, 2011 12:36 pm

penbeast0 wrote:How were they defensively Commish -- did Dantley actually negatively impact the Piston's defense as one would expect from his detractors and if so, by how much?


Yes, his impact on defense was negative. In Detroit his negative defensive impact was bigger than positive offensive, however he was replaced by Rodman so it's really hard to say how much it was result of Rodman's defensive brilliance or Dantley's defensive weakens.

In Utah his defensive impact also was negative but offensively he was so good that overall Jazz was a better team with Dantley, for example as I said: 2-15 that's the Jazz result without Dantley during his three first seasons in Utah.

BTW, ronny mentioned Dantley's1984 playoff run. It was after Dantley was injured in 1983 (missed most of the season) and in '84 he won Comeback Player of the Year and led Jazz to first ever playoffs appearance (and Jazz that season was better offensive team than King's Knicks).

He averaged 32.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.2 APG and .604 TS% so not much worse than King's: 34.8-6.2-3.0-.620. However King played against better defensieve teams, so obviously his peak is more impressive and that's why he should be over Dantley, but Adrian shouldn't be much far behind King. The truth is, except of that one amazing year King wasn't so special, he only played in 28 playoff games (0.173 WS/48), Dantley in 73 (0.172 WS/48).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#45 » by drza » Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:17 pm

Dantley seems like an interesting case, especially with the dynamic that I often see on RealGM. Because here we'll see the same person debated ad nauseum, to the point that those involved in the debates begin to take the conclusions as gospel and no longer really challenge them. So if an outside person comes in with a different set of evidence, the standard of proof is so high and the counter-arguments so well developed that it is still difficult to change the prevailing view.

I think about the Duncan/Camby defensive dynamic on these boards. The overwhelming consensus is that Duncan was by-far the better defender, that Camby was stat-padding by leaving his man to block shots and/or grab boards, and that Camby's DPoY was a direct result of the media voters being fooled by Camby's box score stats and not realizing what real defense is. There's a line spouted so often around here that it's become a toss-off, that Duncan should have had about 2 or 3 DPoYs, including and especially the one that Camby won.

The problem with that, is, that according to Ilardi's 6-year APM study Camby's defensive impact (+4.19, Std Error 1.01) is statistically indistinguishable from Duncan's (+4.78, 1.07 Std Error). Similarly, Engelmann's '05 - '10 APM study had Duncan with a slim edge as well (+3.65 Duncan, +2.75 Camby) with a similar gap from '06 - '11 (+4.1 Duncan, +3.2 Camby). In other words, while one can make the reasonable case that Duncan is a better defender than Camby, in terms of impact it doesn't seem to be by MUCH, and certainly not enough that it should be a toss-off "truth" that Duncan should have been sweeping the DPoY votes over the years while Camby winning over him is a travesty. But that's what I would be led to believe, based on the "established" truisms on these boards.

My point with that aside, is, I wonder if the same thing has happened with a player like Dantley. I'm by no means saying for sure that it's the same dynamic, but honestly I've never seen THAT strong of a case built against Dantley. I mean yes, I definitely think that his impact is far below what it "should" be according to the efficiency-based box score stats...but I've never seen it shown that he wasn't having a positive impact at ALL. Certainly not to the point that it's a slam dunk that he should not even be included in the top-100. I've seen Dantley compared on these boards to Ricky Davis, who I KNOW to be a terrible, negative impact on most teams with the way that he plays. But I've never seen a Davis-like case made against Dantley. Which makes me wonder if I just missed out on those original discussions, much like I did with the Camby/Duncan defensive debate, and that therefore I'm just not as inoculated with the series of original points that made the case so damning.

My intuition now, based in large part on the negative opinions of posters that I respect, is that Dantley isn't nearly as good as his numbers. But I must admit, as this thread continues, I'm wanting to see just a bit more evidence before I'm quite as certain as some others about his un-worthiness for a slot somewhere in the 60s or 70s.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#46 » by lukekarts » Mon Oct 10, 2011 4:01 pm

Short on time to discuss, but:

VOTE: Bob McAdoo
Nominate: James Worthy
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#47 » by ElGee » Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:14 pm

I just watched 87 Pistons G5 against Boston a few weeks ago. Right in the first quarter, Dantley does a Dantley about 3 times, holding, wheeling, dribbling (fiddling and diddling) only to pass the ball out to a helpless teammate with 4-8 seconds on the shot clock 35 feet away. Some players opt to shoot at that spot, but Dantley isn't comfortable that's it's super high percentage, so he passes.

**The result is no stat for Dantley**

The result for the Pistons is an ugly, super low-efficiency possession because Dantley couldn't do anything productive. They called his number and he fell flat on his face. I played with guys like this in HS, and while they thought they were the business bc of their one-on-one skill set, they often struggled to even make organized teams.

To me that's Dantley. He doesn't do much else but score well. When he doesn't, it can really hurt the possession. He doesn't seem like a very good defender, although isn't as bad as Melo from what I can tell. The overall net might be a small positive, but I'm not sure I can find a single season where I think Dantley is a top-15 player. He never really "puts it together," there is never noticeable change before or after, people don't seem to want him, and he's even benched at one point in his career basically.

Then you look at his on/off, which deviates wildly from every other player I've ever looked at:

In Dantley's case, I've looked at 6 big seasons of in/out data from him.

1979 22g 4.0 to 4.1
1980 12g -0.6 to -6.1 (missing 2 games)
1983 59g -2.1 to -6.0 (missing 1)
1985 26g 4.3 to 1.3 (missing 1)
1988 13g -2.0 to 4.9
1989 40g -3.6 to 4.1 (Detroit only - replaced by Aguirre)
1989 51g -5.6 to -4.7 (Dal only)

So, in 4 of the 6 seasons he misses considerable time, the team performs *better* without him, and 2 cases (early Utah) the team is just horrible, and it doesn't even matter. In Detroit they are good, but jump to elite without him. Of 178 In/Out player seasons in my database, Dantley has 3 of the 5 worst and 4 in the bottom 17. Not one single other player is close to showing that kind of impact.

His numbers in those seasons:

1979 17.3 ppg 58.9% TS
1980 28 ppg 63.5% TS
1983 30.7 ppg 66.1% TS
1985 26.6 ppg 60.7% TS
1988 20 ppg 61.9% TS
1989 19.2 ppg 58.1% TS

I'd say there's a reason he was traded multiple times and that his teams show no notable declines when he leaves or improvements when he arrives.

It's interesting to note that the Lakers soured on him and they were merely a .500 team without him. It just was that clear something was wrong with the way he played (and consider that it's his best In/out run by a mile of the 6 seasons...and it's not so coincidentally the one in which he had the smallest role).


Between the eye test and the data on these many teams, in many years, it's hard for to see Dantley as comparable to any of the guys we're talking about.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#48 » by ElGee » Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:41 pm

Btw, 1984 is an instructional year for Dantley to me.

(1) It's the only year in his career he basically has MVP consideration (7th, .1 shares).
(2) After missing much of 83, Utah improves ~4 SRS points and jumps to 9th on offense. Plauisble explanations?

(a) John Drew plays the whole year instead of half the year. Yes, John Drew was good.
(b) Thurl Bailey joins the team - but he's a 9 pt, 25 mpg player
(c) Dantley does his good better than he ever does his good

If Dantley's positive comes from his efficient scoring, it would be reflected in the box (whereas his negative, in theory, is never really reflected in the box). Sure enough, it's his highest ORtg season of his career (fewer TOV's, 65% TS).

That, coupled with noise, can easily explain a jump in offense (and corresponding overall improvement). But again, remember what we're saying here. This is the only time in the career of a guy who has multiple 30 pt / 65% TS season (bananas numbers) in which we see a small team improvement and any kind of real MVP recognition from people watching him play. It should be noted his per 75 rate was 27.8 (+10.9%) - Utah played very fast, not far off from say his 81 season at 26.5 (+8.8%).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#49 » by penbeast0 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:55 pm

When you say John Drew was extremely talented, he was. But, if you are talking about negative intangibles, Drew was nicknamed "Cementhead" for a reason.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#50 » by ElGee » Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:56 pm

This project never ceases to amaze me. And I'm certainly not writerman, but I sometimes wonder if there is a little too much generational bias taking place. Mufasa mentions Manu having a more complete game than Marques...

What we really need to remember is how well these guys influenced the game THEY PLAYED IN. At the turn of the 80s, teams were still structured in a multipolar manner. One on one play was predominant because clubs were more balanced. There no 3-point line, and teams wants to be more balanced to mimic the Celtics squads (and even the 77 Blazers). To compare a skillset directly to Manu Ginobili, who has a 3-point line, a Euro Step (traveling back then) and International influences seems to miss the point of the project to me.

And I'm amazed here because I thought I would be arguing Manu first. He's coming up on my list real soon (if we ever get past Paul...please people, just kick him out so I can have a meaningful vote again). I have Manu over Gasol.

The reason why Manu isn't higher still is durability. I personal relate to him in that his body is somewhat fragile - it's prone to breaking down because he goes so hard. Pop knows that (and in theory that's why he monitors his minutes). But Ginobili would already be votable for me if not for injuries in 2006 and 2009. His ankle also breaks down in 08 WFC badly. Perhaps people have forgotten that...

(Or maybe they haven't and the issue for Ginobili voters has to do with the competition instead.)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#51 » by ElGee » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:01 pm

penbeast0 wrote:When you say John Drew was extremely talented, he was. But, if you are talking about negative intangibles, Drew was nicknamed "Cementhead" for a reason.


Haha c'mon - I'm not arguing for John Drew here. He liked drugs. But when he played, he was good.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#52 » by Dr Positivity » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:32 pm

Well, I'm fine with comparing players impacts to the era they played in which certainly helped a guy like Dave Cowens make top 45 on my list - and I have little doubt Manu is more valuable now than he would be in 79 due to the 3pt line and the importance of spacing from perimeter players, and vice versa, Marques is more valuable then due to the absence of those things and a far far greater average pace

But I think we all put at least a little stock into who's the best at basketball period which is in part why Schayes, Arizin, etc. are not close - and even with that, I'm still not convinced Marques scoring for *his time* is more important than Manu's for his. Marques +/- stats look solid but Manu's are even better, and the Bucks did fine with Cummings and Pressey in Marques and Lanier's place. And Marques would have to establish himself as the clearly better pure scorer because I think he loses something in the playmaking and spacing aspect and apparant other massive amount of non statsheet things Manu does

With that said, Manu isn't even my vote - Pau is, who I see as a similar value scorer to Marques Johnson except he gives man value defensively and on the boards too. Seems to me like Marques will easily make my top 70, somewhere near James Worthy and Melo, but a few players like Pau and Carter and Manu bring more to the table as players from my perspective
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#53 » by Dr Positivity » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:46 pm

A guy I compare to Marques offensively is Glen Rice. Marques is an efficient near the rim scorer and Rice is an efficient outside scorer. Their scoring stats match up very similar as Rice also has one 26ppg+ top 6 MVP outlier year and then the rest is similarly 21-22ppg and .56-.58 TS% years. I would probably venture Rice is more valuable offensively because of the extra value of floor spacing, especially as a SF. I think Rice and Peja have more value as floor spacers than Reggie/Allen for the same reason Dirk does - it's more rare to have lockdown 3s from the SF and PF positions than SG, it's usually easier to pair Rice/Peja/Dirk with a 3pt shooting SG than to pair Allen/Miller with 3s at SF or PF. (but OTOH, Allen and Miller are more likely to play with defense/rebounding value players - but that's seperate from talking strict floor spacing value) Rice has the results of anchoring top 5 offenses numerous times. Marques is obviously the better defender and rebounder. If you compare him to a time with no 3pt line, it's hard to blame him for it so I'd put Marques ahead. (albeit it's not like Rice wouldn't have spacing value in the late 70s, just not as much) But I'd put them in similar range and that's close to where I see Marques as a player. Really good, really underrated, but not quite at this range
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#54 » by ElGee » Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:32 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:A guy I compare to Marques offensively is Glen Rice. Marques is an efficient near the rim scorer and Rice is an efficient outside scorer. Their scoring stats match up very similar as Rice also has one 26ppg+ top 6 MVP outlier year and then the rest is similarly 21-22ppg and .56-.58 TS% years. I would probably venture Rice is more valuable offensively because of the extra value of floor spacing, especially as a SF. I think Rice and Peja have more value as floor spacers than Reggie/Allen for the same reason Dirk does - it's more rare to have lockdown 3s from the SF and PF positions than SG, it's usually easier to pair Rice/Peja/Dirk with a 3pt shooting SG than to pair Allen/Miller with 3s at SF or PF. (but OTOH, Allen and Miller are more likely to play with defense/rebounding value players - but that's seperate from talking strict floor spacing value) Rice has the results of anchoring top 5 offenses numerous times. Marques is obviously the better defender and rebounder. If you compare him to a time with no 3pt line, it's hard to blame him for it so I'd put Marques ahead. (albeit it's not like Rice wouldn't have spacing value in the late 70s, just not as much) But I'd put them in similar range and that's close to where I see Marques as a player. Really good, really underrated, but not quite at this range


Man, I just don't see that at all. Rice was a pretty one-dimensional player. Marques was an exceptional all-around player. His offensive value extends beyond merely scoring (Rice's doesn't really, save for spacing which is a good point). So you have an all-around offensive player who can create who was also a defender who was a great rebounder. That's nothing like Glen Rice.

Not to mention Marques at his peak did things Rice never did...and was regarded as one of the best players in the league. Peak Rice, in 1997, by comparison finished t-10th in RPOY voting.

Just for posterity and something for everyone to consider, my best peaks left on the board are:

King
Penny/Hill
Thurmond
Durant
Brand
Lanier
Thompson
Marques

And with the exception of Bernard, those are all pretty close as high-quality all-nba peaks or low-level MVP peaks.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#55 » by lorak » Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:49 pm

ElGee wrote:I just watched 87 Pistons G5 against Boston a few weeks ago. Right in the first quarter, Dantley does a Dantley about 3 times, holding, wheeling, dribbling (fiddling and diddling) only to pass the ball out to a helpless teammate with 4-8 seconds on the shot clock 35 feet away. Some players opt to shoot at that spot, but Dantley isn't comfortable that's it's super high percentage, so he passes.

**The result is no stat for Dantley**

The result for the Pistons is an ugly, super low-efficiency possession because Dantley couldn't do anything productive. They called his number and he fell flat on his face.



Some time ago I watched 1988 finals vs Lakers and ECF vs Celtics. And Dantley was very good as offensive player. For example he often was double teamed and passed ball to Laimbeer at the top of the key and then Bill passed to open teammate on weak side. That's good offense.


Then you look at his on/off, which deviates wildly from every other player I've ever looked at:

In Dantley's case, I've looked at 6 big seasons of in/out data from him.

1979 22g 4.0 to 4.1
1980 12g -0.6 to -6.1 (missing 2 games)
1983 59g -2.1 to -6.0 (missing 1)
1985 26g 4.3 to 1.3 (missing 1)
1988 13g -2.0 to 4.9
1989 40g -3.6 to 4.1 (Detroit only - replaced by Aguirre)
1989 51g -5.6 to -4.7 (Dal only)

So, in 4 of the 6 seasons he misses considerable time, the team performs *better* without him, and 2 cases (early Utah) the team is just horrible, and it doesn't even matter.


I guess, your numbers are simply PPG scored - PPG allowed, so no pace adjustment. The truth is from '80 to '82 Jazz without Dantley won 2 games and lost 15...
And in 1988 Pistons offense without Dantley was significantly worse than with him. On defensive end it was different story, but it was rather "Rodman factor".
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#56 » by Dr Positivity » Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:57 pm

Well... Marques finished T-5th in RPOY and was on 6 of 14 ballots which is solid, but not incredible in a pretty weak year. Rice's year was weak too (which is how he snuck into #5 in MVP votes), but it was deeper - Payton, Ewing, Shaq, Stockton, Penny made up the 6-10 slots which took away most of the chance of Rice sneaking in 4th and 5th votes, whereas Marques finished ahead of DJ, Dandridge and Westphal and tied with Hayes, which is pretty solid, but Hayes made 4 of 14 ballots and 5 of 16 in 78, I think he just got jobbed by RPOY and his rep. I'm not that sold by the relatively minor difference there, I think you could make a case for fringe top 5 for both but not a huge one

Re: All around game. Marques seems like playmaking/being the floor general/ballhandling enough to do so is not really a noteable part of his game and is closer to the Worthy Nique type scoring/cutting SF, maybe that's where the disconnect here. He has solid assist numbers (but nowhere near a Manu/Pierce/Vince type pseudo point) but I wonder how much of that is the Nellie offensive style, his apg and Ast% also drop when he moves to the LAC
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#57 » by penbeast0 » Tue Oct 11, 2011 12:25 am

ElGee wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:When you say John Drew was extremely talented, he was. But, if you are talking about negative intangibles, Drew was nicknamed "Cementhead" for a reason.


Haha c'mon - I'm not arguing for John Drew here. He liked drugs. But when he played, he was good.


I know, but how often do you get a chance to talk about a guy who once pulled off his warmups to reveal . . . he forgot to wear his shorts under them. :)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#58 » by Dr Positivity » Tue Oct 11, 2011 12:27 am

My count

Votes

Kevin Johnson (3) - colts18, Dr Mufasa, JordansBulls

Bob McAdoo (3) - FJS, ronnymac, lukekarts

Chris Paul (2) - therealbig3, ElGee

Sidney Moncrief (1) - penbeast

Bob Lanier (1) - David Stern

If you count Dr MJ's obvious vote for Paul we have a 3 way tie


Nom

Bernard King (2) - Dr Mufasa, ronnymac

Marques Johnson (2) - therealbig3, ElGee

James Worthy (2) - FJS, lukekarts

Pau Gasol (1) - colts18

Sam Jones (1) - penbeast

Penny Hardaway (1) - JordansBulls

Manu Ginobili (1) - David Stern
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#59 » by Snakebites » Tue Oct 11, 2011 12:53 am

Thought I had already voted.

Vote: KJ

Nominate:

Honestly, I don't want to decide between King and Johnson.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #50 

Post#60 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Oct 11, 2011 2:31 am

Vote: Paul

Nomination: Ginobili

w00t! 4-way tie!
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