Andrew Luck Sweepstakes Officially Over For Us: What Now?

[Bulltalk]

My worst nightmare has come true. We are playing just well enough to be playing ourselves out of a top draft pick. I have already written us off from either drafting Luck OR the 2nd best QB in the draft (at least how teams will be interpreting that to be).

It now looks that the best we can hope for in our pursuit of a future franchise QB is:

A) Trade up in the draft for the top pick to draft Luck (doubtful)
B) Trade up in draft to acquire 2nd best QB prospect (possible; either Barkley or Jones)
C) Hope that the 3rd best QB prospect in the draft falls to us (either Barkley or Jones)
D) Draft the 4th, 5th, or 6th best QB prospect in the draft and hope he pans-out
E) Make a trade for a quality starting QB
F) Hope Josh Portis is the unlikely next Tom Brady
G) Acquire in FAcy an overlooked diamond-in-the-rough QB
H) Something else not mentioned here

Thoughts?

[bennith13]

I guess we either have to hope Portis is a dimond in the rough or we draft a QB lower in the draft that turns out to be the next big overlooked guy. No way we are as bad as the colts and the dolphins now.

[Sweezo]

Given where Portis comes from I cannot think of any QB that has a similar profile who has found success in the NFL. I think the odds are definitely against him.

I'm starting to get cold feet about Landry Jones. I don't know how good he really is. His team is so good that I don't know how much of his success is because of his skillset and how much is because he simply has better players around him than just about every other team in NCAA football.

[Danny Darko]

trade up for Barkley. We'll probably with the damn terrible division again dag nabbit

[Bulltalk]

Given where Portis comes from I cannot think of any QB that has a similar profile who has found success in the NFL. I think the odds are definitely against him.

I'm starting to get cold feet about Landry Jones. I don't know how good he really is. His team is so good that I don't know how much of his success is because of his skillset and how much is because he simply has better players around him than just about every other team in NCAA football.

Right now, I think we have to hope that either:

A) Barkley/Jones falls to us, or trade up to draft them
B) Draft either R. Tannehill/R. Griffen/N. Foles/R. Lindley and hope they pan-out
C) Acquire in FAcy or through trade a QB like Ryan Fitzpatrick/Matt Flynn
D) Hope Josh Portis is a diamond-in-the-rough

That's the way I see it now.

[Bulltalk]

trade up for Barkley. We'll probably with the damn terrible division again dag nabbit

That seems a possibility, OR Landry Jones is the 2nd QB prospect picked, and Barkley falls to us in the somewhere between about the 8th and 20th pick.

I am currently intrigued by a few QB prospects in the 2nd tier, namely Griffen (Baylor) and Tannehill (Texas A&M). This is only because they have been playing reasonably well, their stocks have risen a bit of late, and they will almost surely be available later in the first round, or possibly the 2nd round, or 3rd round.

We'll see.

Also, there are other QB prospects lurking out there (Foles, Lindley, etc...). Time will sort them out.

[asdf1223]

I honestly wouldnt be disappointed if we miss out on Luck, if we continue to play as well as we have. This QB class is one of the deepest class in a while really. Also, a lot of teams are not going to be looking at QB especially as much last year.

Also we still have a ton of cap space ( around 20 million) and have done a great job filling other needs through FA, draft and trades. You can pretty much rule out drafting WR's, TE's, Safety or OL in the first 3 rounds. It's a huge improvement compared to the terrible shape the team was in the last 2 offseasons. If they wanted to make a big splash they certainly have the draft ammo to do so.

Of all the second tier prospects, I love Tannehill. Good arm, great athlete, pro style offense. He makes his fair share of mistakes and is still very inexperienced but I feel he's a better prospect than Gabbert last year and Landry Jones this year.

[Sweezo]

I am currently intrigued by a few QB prospects in the 2nd tier, namely Griffen (Baylor) and Tannehill (Texas A&M). This is only because they have been playing reasonably well, their stocks have risen a bit of late, and they will almost surely be available later in the first round, or possibly the 2nd round, or 3rd round.

Griffin is especially intriguing to me because I know very little about him and his skillset seems very unique. Out of sheer boredom I watched one of his games last year and compared it to the TCU game.

The knocks on his footwork seem legit; sometimes he keeps his feet very far apart and he makes a fair amount of throws in motion where he's not set. He also doesn't have a totally over-the-top throwing motion which could cause issues in the NFL, especially since he isn't exceptionally tall for a QB.

But his pocket presence, ability to progress his reads, and make throws downfield appear markedly better this season. His completion % is horribly inflated as Baylor throws a lot of quick WR screens, but he's got good touch down the field. I would like to see him make more intermediate throws since most of the tape on his is WR screens/read option/deep throws. Sort of an odd mix.

When the season is over, I'm guessing his combine numbers will be off the charts. And not just in terms of physicals either...I'm guessing he'll quite well on the Wonderlic test as well.

Smart player. Enormous physical talent. Fundamentally flawed. Where do you put a player like that in the draft? How fast can he learn to fix his issues and become an NFL caliber QB?

[Danny Darko]

My darkhorse guy would be Foles in the 2nd or 3rd round if we could grab someone at CB/LB/DE/DT that would really make a splash in the first. *waits for Dan McGuire comparison*

[Danny Darko]

I am currently intrigued by a few QB prospects in the 2nd tier, namely Griffen (Baylor) and Tannehill (Texas A&M). This is only because they have been playing reasonably well, their stocks have risen a bit of late, and they will almost surely be available later in the first round, or possibly the 2nd round, or 3rd round.

Griffin is especially intriguing to me because I know very little about him and his skillset seems very unique. Out of sheer boredom I watched one of his games last year and compared it to the TCU game.

The knocks on his footwork seem legit; sometimes he keeps his feet very far apart and he makes a fair amount of throws in motion where he's not set. He also doesn't have a totally over-the-top throwing motion which could cause issues in the NFL, especially since he isn't exceptionally tall for a QB.

But his pocket presence, ability to progress his reads, and make throws downfield appear markedly better this season. His completion % is horribly inflated as Baylor throws a lot of quick WR screens, but he's got good touch down the field. I would like to see him make more intermediate throws since most of the tape on his is WR screens/read option/deep throws. Sort of an odd mix.

When the season is over, I'm guessing his combine numbers will be off the charts. And not just in terms of physicals either...I'm guessing he'll quite well on the Wonderlic test as well.

Smart player. Enormous physical talent. Fundamentally flawed. Where do you put a player like that in the draft? How fast can he learn to fix his issues and become an NFL caliber QB?

It's sort of like Tim Tebow... only with a brain, so where do you draft the scarecrow at the end of the Wizard of Oz? I'm going 3rd round if he has a great combine

[Sweezo]

It's sort of like Tim Tebow... only with a brain, so where do you draft the scarecrow at the end of the Wizard of Oz? I'm going 3rd round if he has a great combine

Maybe 2nd round, depending on where we pick if we swing and miss on a QB in the first round. But some of the online draftniks have seen fit to skyrocket him into the top five, and I see comparisons to Vick/Newton made which I think are misplaced.

[Ex-hippie]

My darkhorse QB is Geno Smith of West Virginia. You don't hear a lot about him but he could shoot up draft boards in a hurry. He definitely has the arm strength and the height, though he's a bit on the lanky side. He works hard, seems to have good command of the huddle and goes through his progressions well. He's not what you'd call a scrambler but he can move around in the pocket a little. The big problem is that his accuracy comes and goes. Occasionally he will impressively drill it into a tight spot, and occasionally he'll miss the mark by a few feet and get picked off. That seems like something he can work on and if he shows more consistency in the second half of the season, I can see him moving into first- or second- round consideration.

[Sweezo]

My darkhorse QB is Geno Smith of West Virginia. You don't hear a lot about him but he could shoot up draft boards in a hurry. He definitely has the arm strength and the height, though he's a bit on the lanky side. He works hard, seems to have good command of the huddle and goes through his progressions well. He's not what you'd call a scrambler but he can move around in the pocket a little. The big problem is that his accuracy comes and goes. Occasionally he will impressively drill it into a tight spot, and occasionally he'll miss the mark by a few feet and get picked off. That seems like something he can work on and if he shows more consistency in the second half of the season, I can see him moving into first- or second- round consideration.

There's a name I haven't really seen mentioned much yet. I watched the LSU tape and I am not sold on him. Now, whenever I say I 'watched tape,' I mean I watched a collection of the passing plays from that game and take what I can out of them. Clearly, I am not a football coach, so my opinion is about as valuable as that of many other people who post things on the internet.

That said, I have a hard time seeing him as a first round pick or second round pick this year based on that. To me, he looks like someone who could really benefit from another year in school. The vast majority of the throws he made were set throws out of the spread where it looked he was doing a three step drop. There's not a lot of value to be taken out of those. I can get an idea of his footwork and short range accuracy, which appear decent enough, but no gauge for long range accuracy/decision making/etc.

His release looks very quick. Good zip on the ball. But on plays where he is forced to go deep or make reads he either does something remarkable [and progresses through his reads remarkably well] or does something terrible. If someone's decision making and accuracy appear above average, I am less considered about other facets of their game like footwork because I think that can be worked on. But learning decision making and accuracy at the pro-level seems like an uphill battle to me.

My snap judgment is he looks like a fair amount like Tarvaris Jackson...

[Ex-hippie]

My darkhorse QB is Geno Smith of West Virginia. You don't hear a lot about him but he could shoot up draft boards in a hurry. He definitely has the arm strength and the height, though he's a bit on the lanky side. He works hard, seems to have good command of the huddle and goes through his progressions well. He's not what you'd call a scrambler but he can move around in the pocket a little. The big problem is that his accuracy comes and goes. Occasionally he will impressively drill it into a tight spot, and occasionally he'll miss the mark by a few feet and get picked off. That seems like something he can work on and if he shows more consistency in the second half of the season, I can see him moving into first- or second- round consideration.

There's a name I haven't really seen mentioned much yet. I watched the LSU tape and I am not sold on him. Now, whenever I say I 'watched tape,' I mean I watched a collection of the passing plays from that game and take what I can out of them. Clearly, I am not a football coach, so my opinion is about as valuable as that of many other people who post things on the internet.

That said, I have a hard time seeing him as a first round pick or second round pick this year based on that. To me, he looks like someone who could really benefit from another year in school. The vast majority of the throws he made were set throws out of the spread where it looked he was doing a three step drop. There's not a lot of value to be taken out of those. I can get an idea of his footwork and short range accuracy, which appear decent enough, but no gauge for long range accuracy/decision making/etc.

His release looks very quick. Good zip on the ball. But on plays where he is forced to go deep or make reads he either does something remarkable [and progresses through his reads remarkably well] or does something terrible. If someone's decision making and accuracy appear above average, I am less considered about other facets of their game like footwork because I think that can be worked on. But learning decision making and accuracy at the pro-level seems like an uphill battle to me.

My snap judgment is he looks like a fair amount like Tarvaris Jackson...

I raised the subject of Smith with Rob Staton a couple of weeks ago and he more or less agreed that Smith has great tools and with a little more accuracy could rise very high on many draft boards. He certainly seems to be he one with the most upside among all the second-tier prospects and is a lot more intriguing than, say, Kirk Cousins. But no doubt he could most likely stand to stick around for another year in Dana Holgorsen's offense and solidify his status. I saw a bit of last night's game and he didn't look to sharp, so I don't see that kind of meteoric rise happening just yet. Not sure I see the Jackson comparison, as he already has the confidence to get rid of the ball and attempt to drill it into tight coverage.

[Bulltalk]

On a lamentful side-note, Andrew Luck looks like he could be somewhat of an impact pro-QB in his first season. He looks like a pro QB now, a man amongst boys.

[Bulltalk]

Has any team ever drafted TWO quarterbacks with high picks in one draft? I just had this thought this morning while working out. It seems that Charlie Whitehurst will be gone after this season, leaving us with Tarvaris Jackson and Josh Portis as QB's. Assuming that neither Jackson or Portis is our long term answer at QB, our cupboard is basically bare in that regard.

Why not draft TWO quarterbacks next spring in either the 1st and 2nd round, or the 1st and 3rd round? I know it sounds highly unconventional, and goes against the common wisdom, but wouldn't this give us a much better chance of landing that franchise QB of the future?

I don't know about anyone else, but I'd feel much better knowing we had two chances instead of one in this regard. Wouldn't that be interesting to have, say, a Barkley/Jones AND, say, a Tannehill and Griffen in our stable? It would fit the PC philosophy of letting players compete for the job. And if one of them wins the job, couldn't we trade the other one down the line in a QB starved league for draft considerations, or stand pat with potentially two solid QB's in our stable?

I'm intrigued by this odd idea. How about anyone else?

[Danny Darko]

I can see your points about two QB's and I guess that would truly be competition, but it could also create an odd QB controversy. Is there any precedent for such a thing historically?

[Bulltalk]

I can see your points about two QB's and I guess that would truly be competition, but it could also create an odd QB controversy. Is there any precedent for such a thing historically?

It was just a crazy thought. The way it looks now, the Hawks will probably have their choice of either Barkley or Jones, or even Griffen if they decide they like him over the other two (his draft stock has been rising, though I still question the flight of his passes, not tight spirals).

If you go along with my crazy idea in this QB deep draft, then you pick another QB in the 3rd round, someone like Tannehill or Foles.

If you do this, then you cut Whitehurst and Portis, and go with Jackson as your starter early on, at least until he's beaten out.

So, say, we draft either Barkley/Jones/Griffen in the 1st round. Then, say, we draft either Tannehill/Foles in the 3rd round. The implication is that either Barkley/Jones/Griffen would wrest the starting QB position from Jackson at some point. This is what we would hope, that such a talent would supersede the talent of Jackson.

But by also drafting, say, a Tannehill/Foles in the 3rd round, we would be accomplishing a couple of things. First, we would be drafting what could be a very capable backup for either Barkley/Jones/Griffen. That's good in and of itself. We then, hopefully, would have gone from a sad QB situation to a potentially promising one.

Secondly, what if either Barkley/Jones/Griffen don't turn out to be the QB that many think they might be? Then you've got another QB in the stable who *could* surprise, be a QB who exceeds the expectations of many.

Lastly, if they both turn out to be promising QB's, then you would have the option of trading the one slightly lower on the depth chart in this QB starved league for a couple of draft picks down the line.

This makes sense to me as a strategy. You take the best QB available in the 1st round. You draft the best available player at a position of need in the 2nd round (running back, DLman, WR, CB, for instance). Then draft the best QB available in the 3rd round to complete my idea. Then draft the best available players left in rounds 4 through 7.

I just like this idea. As crazy, or unconventional as it may sound.

As I've said time and again, QB is by far the most important position in all the major team sports. This has become all but obvious in recent years. We've very much neglected this fact in all our drafts of late, and now our cupboard is severely lacking in this regard. Why not finally and aggressively address this concern in the next draft? It makes sense to me.

[Sweezo]

So, say, we draft either Barkley/Jones/Griffen in the 1st round. Then, say, we draft either Tannehill/Foles in the 3rd round. The implication is that either Barkley/Jones/Griffen would wrest the starting QB position from Jackson at some point. This is what we would hope, that such a talent would supersede the talent of Jackson.

But by also drafting, say, a Tannehill/Foles in the 3rd round, we would be accomplishing a couple of things. First, we would be drafting what could be a very capable backup for either Barkley/Jones/Griffen. That's good in and of itself. We then, hopefully, would have gone from a sad QB situation to a potentially promising one.

Secondly, what if either Barkley/Jones/Griffen don't turn out to be the QB that many think they might be? Then you've got another QB in the stable who *could* surprise, be a QB who exceeds the expectations of many.

The thought definitely defies the conventional football wisdom. The QB position seems to be more about defining 'your guy' than any other position on the football field. That guy gets the reps, gets the most attention. The Seahawks MO seems to have been to put a foundation in place [OL, WR, TE] to give a new QB every chance to succeed. I think they'll target a QB, draft him, tell after who will listen after the fact that this was the guy they wanted all along, and use the rest of the draft to put pieces around him to make managing the game that much easier for him.

For me, I think we're likely to go into next season with Jackson/draftee/Portis. Jackson's under contract for next year while Whitehurst is not. The draftee will get his chance to take over at some point in the season.

If we draft a QB and there was another QB prospect available later on that we quite simply could not pass up, and that player is the best available talent, then go ahead and draft him. But otherwise, I'd be inclined to see what we get after this year, and if the position needs to be addressed again the following offseason, then we try again.

[Bulltalk]

^^^ My premise has a lot to do with the fact that our QB situation is pretty awful, and that this draft is deep at the QB position. You could, in essence, draft a QB this year early in the 3rd round who in another year could be a 2nd round, or even late 1st round pick.

These two facts just kind of converged into this idea for me. Timing.

This may be such a time to think outside-the-box of conventional wisdom.