RealGM Top 100 List #56

[Dr Positivity]

Will change my vote to Alex English. I'm with penbeast that English vs Marques is pretty easy to differentiate. English has clearly better scoring stats with higher volume and same efficiency and passes the eye test to me as someone who's floor spacing and ability to play off the ball and with other stars helps teams, which vs a primarily outside in rim crasher like Marques does not seem inferior - and then English has greater longevity with greater health. To give an idea of the gap there, English plays 1193 games with 25,613 total points - Marques plays 691 games with 13,892 points. That is a SUBSTANTIAL gap. English vs Marques is like Dominique vs Marques for me, since English and Dominique essentially have the same career - the volume combined with twice the longevity makes it not that hard of a question

I've seen Marques 6th place MVP vote in 81 when the Bucks won 60 Gs mentioned a few times. Other players who've finished top 6 playing key roles on elite teams include Chauncey Billups, Robert Parish, Tim Hardaway, Bob Dandridge, Chris Mullin, Jermaine O'Neal, Peja Stojakovic, Glen Rice, Paul Westphal, Walter Davis. Yes Marques had high recognition for his 26ppg peak by making 1st team All-NBA, but showing up in the MVP vote once isn't something reserved for the elites of the elites.

I would like to hear the argument for Marques not based on injury +/- stats (which means about as much as the Bucks actually getting better post Marques or the team not making the playoffs at his peak), but why Marques offensively is more valuable than English. Is it something about players who hang near the rim drawing the defense in more? Because I could buy that argument, though I'd argue if that was true it should show up in Marques having greater efficiency which he doesn't, and I'd point to English's floor spacing giving the team another often underrated element to go along with the volume advantage. I think it's fair enough to Marques to say he's = English, which with English lasting substantially longer is not enough...

[ElGee]

OK but raw stats are not a be-all-end-all. I'd actually argue they are the least important piece of data we have on players by themselves. We need to understand the context the stats are achieved in and what they mean for the player in question. More importantly, we need to judge how many other things the player does well (or poorly) that aren't captured in the raw stats.

Here are some per 75 raw stats of some players:

Player A: 25/6/4
Player B: 27/4/4
Player C: 27/6/5
Player D: 28/4/5

Who is better?

My point is, that just doesn't tell us much about what's happening in a vacuum. To illustrate how stark the difference can be, those 4 players are, in order:

Player A: 25/6/4 - 82 English (+3.0% TS)
Player B: 27/4/4 - 97 Richmond (+4.2% TS)
Player C: 27/6/5 - 08 Kobe (+3.6% TS)
Player D: 28/4/5 - 01 Stackhouse (+0.3% TS)

For my money, 08 Kobe is light years ahead of all these players. Stackhouse lags far behind both English and Richmond. But it's hard to differentiate that based on the 3 big raw box stats.

Marques Johnson unarguably played on a balanced, multipolar team. It's quite possible that if he played in Denver's wide open game he would have scored 30 a night too. He, like Paul Pierce from 08- and many other players (including Kobe himself in 04) have been on teams in which they could have averaged 30 a night but it wasn't the best offensive approach.

As far the MVP vote goes,

(1) I haven't really seen that mentioned, other than to shoot it down right now
(2) you are completely misrepresenting the politics behind the vote. The Bucks weren't very good when Marques arrived. It's kind of rare to get a lot of MVP love on teams that miss the playoffs.

NB: The Bucks missed the playoffs in Marques' 25 ppg season with a +2.1 SRS. (This is NOT his 6th-place MVP finish)

IMO it's perfectly normal for him not to receive MVP love the next year because his numbers went way down...but it wasn't because he was playing worse. The team got better. When they added Lanier mid-season and exploded there was a huge narrative shift (for anyone paying attention to Wisconsin) and therefore, only giving out first place votes, none of the Bucks received any.

In 1981 he finishes 6th, but all you need to know is that many people think he outplayed the MVP in the postseason. It just makes little sense to look at MVP record as some knock on an underrated player (like Marques) in the same way it makes little sense to hold Reggie Miller's All-Star/all-nba selections against him.

[ElGee]

To recycle what I said earlier regarding the stats and English's impact:

With Alex English, I'm still not understanding the argument. "Look at his stats" isn't an argument. When someone says "Wes Unseld speaks for himself," I don't even know what that means. I suppose we don't have to really discuss anyone then because they have a reputation...

Did anyone care to look at what happened when English was traded to Denver in 1980? His scoring jumped immediately. Unless you think he took basketball steroids over the All-Star weekend in 1980, what do you think that says about his statistics in Denver?

Then factor in that for the rest of the year, Indiana went from -1.0 to -0.1 after trading English and Denver improved all the way from -4.7 to -3.7. Now, that's not English's peak, but

on team A:17-9-4 54% TS
on team B: 21-9-3 53% TS

And it looks like absolutely nothing changed in either team. Yet 3 years later -- his peak ITO of accolades and stats -- he's 28-7-5 56% TS, and we have to ask how much HE changed or how much more effective that player was.

Because in 1981 Doug Moe took over. In the first 31 games, they were -2.7 MOV, then +0.9 with Moe. They played orders of magnitude faster than everyone else under Moe - in 1982, the distance between Denver and the second fastest team was the difference between No. 2 and the BOTTOM of the league.

In 1981 Denver also added Kiki Vendegwhe and a full season of David Thompson, as well as Dave Robisch and Cedric Hordges. TR Dunn joined the team off the bench. It was a different team basically. We know the pace was almost 10% faster with Moe, but by raw figure they scored about 8.5 more points per game. They were the best offensive team in the league for 2 years...and basically the worst defensive team in the league. Left hand, Right hand. To me, those tradeoffs are related, especially watching them play (and linger around the basket and play wide open in the court to try and free-flow the game). Not to mention 3 legit scoring options in English, Kiki and Issel.

Yes, English was an all-star worthy player IMO. But I see nothing to suggest he had an all-nba impact or had a peak that was, say, on the level of Paul Pierce.

[Dr Positivity]

Well, if someone asked me why Bryant is better, I'd say he's a far more dangerous scorer due to his skill level and draws as much attention and doubles as anyone that year, and apg vastly understimates how much of a playmaker he is due to the triangle - the fact that he led the team in asts/per 36 at 5 and nobody else was above 3.5 in raw apg shows as much about his playmaking role on that team as comparing him to a Lebron or Wade in their different systems. I'd point to scoring 35 and 32ppg in the same situation as 97 Richmond as further evidence that he was on a different level as a scoring threat

I have not seen a clear argument for Marques' (IMO mini Dominique esque) power SF game to be a more valuable style than English's style (shooting), especially if you consider the large volume difference, even with pace adjustment (which I don't trust much with scorers, TrueLAFan had a decent post in the Stats forum showing some evidence that players score what they score in different systems).

[Dr Positivity]

The 79-80 Nuggets played half the season with Thompson and McGinnis in coke and cancerous want out mode respectively, and then Thompson got injured (http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=rD ... jury&hl=en) and McGinnis was traded for English as the team trying to tank the rest of the season but went 12-17 which was better than the 18-35 record before the trade. Indiana was supposed to be getting the better player so it's not like their non falloff trading English is a big deal. But way too much turmoil for me to trust those +/- numbers one way or another personally. The 81 Nuggets were mediocore but 1st in ORTG compared to 18th in 80 so that indicates some impact to me, especially considering English hadn't put up his big numbers yet

[penbeast0]

Oh and there's no question either than Denver was a balanced multipolar scoring squad as well with the likes of Issel, Vandeweght, Lever, Adams, Vincent, Natt, etc. providing scoring. The big thing for English over Marques is that he kept up that All-Pro level of scoring and play for almost a decade instead of just one year . . . .there are a lot of 21ppg scorers, not many 25ppg+ and English did it 8 times.

Yes, the pace was high but English wasn't the sole featured gunner a la Iverson, Nique or even Kobe; he got his points without a lot of iso being run for him and in the context of that offense. But mainly, like Pierce, Reggie, or Ray Allen, it's his consistency over time.

[ElGee]

Just lost a huge post responding to this. Look, here's the bottom line. You're misunderstanding Marques Johnson's role on those teams. He's on balanced teams and he's STILL leading them in scoring and assists (and posting huge rebounding numbers). There are very few players, and even fewer wings (LeBron, Jordan, Drexler, Pippen, Hill basically) who have put up those kind of scoring, rebounding and assist numbers.

I'd argue that Marques did it with the best and most balanced supporting cast. He did what was asked. He was a very good defender, fantastic rebounder, versatile, pressured the defense with BOTH scoring and good passing/creation. You note Kobe's role in the triangle, but look at Johnson's apg numbers next to the "PG" Buckner (more of a Brevin Knight than a creator). He's still posting monster scoring and rebounding stats...he takes care of the ball while executing that role because he is an excellent ball handler AND scores on good efficiency because he has good shot selection and good feel for scoring around the rim. He has a post game and an outside game - much like Hill there but better in the post -- and all of that is what allowed him to come up big in the biggest moments MORE than once in his career.

Again, 1983 is supposed to be Moncrief's peak and Johnson's decline (it's certainly past his 79-81 peak) and yet what happens in the PS? Moncrief shrinks and Marques steps up, both against Boston and Philadelphia. (Many of these games are on youtube)

When do we see anything like that from Alex English?

[ElGee]

Oh and there's no question either than Denver was a balanced multipolar scoring squad as well with the likes of Issel, Vandeweght, Lever, Adams, Vincent, Natt, etc. providing scoring. The big thing for English over Marques is that he kept up that All-Pro level of scoring and play for almost a decade instead of just one year . . . .there are a lot of 21ppg scorers, not many 25ppg+ and English did it 8 times.

Yes, the pace was high but English wasn't the sole featured gunner a la Iverson, Nique or even Kobe; he got his points without a lot of iso being run for him and in the context of that offense. But mainly, like Pierce, Reggie, or Ray Allen, it's his consistency over time.

It has less to do with the pace and more to do with just understanding what Denver was doing. We can clearly see that English's numbers take a huge boost when he goes to Denver. He wasn't a different player. So we have to ask what that means.

Then we can watch Denver play and see how scattered they were and how they wanted to push pace, much like today's GS Warriors. There is a sacrifice in strategy as one side of the ball can be related to the other side in this regard. The last few 80s Nuggets games I've seen have really hammered this home -- don't crash the offensive glass, don't get back on D, cherry pick, push the pace, and the offensive efficiency numbers will look better at the sacrifice of the defense. That was their Em-Moe.

But if you put English back on a halfcourt team I don't think the numbers look nearly the same. I think there's a reason he has some playoff struggles and we never really see him take over or hit certain levels. Yeah, the guy was an excellent scorer and mid-range shooter. He has good longevity too. I just don't see this peak comparison as that hard to differentiate.

[penbeast0]

Actually you will find a long history of Doug Moe getting great numbers out of players that really didn't look like the same player before they came to Denver. Not just English but Lever, Adams, Vincent, Schayes, there are quite a few players that benefitted from the uptempo motion offense that he built around the Globetrotter weave . . . he let guards like Fat Lever crash the board and post, players like Michael Adams have a green light from 3 in days when that was very rare, used 6-10 shooters like Issel and Vandeweghe outside having them get back on defense rather than crashing the boards . . . he didn't really care about role like a Jack Ramsey style coach where the offensive roles were predefined and he tried to wedge players into it.

And several of those Nugget teams were above average defensively and mediocre offensively . . . look at the Wayne Cooper years for example . . . just disguised by the fast pace. And the pace was a deliberate attempt to take advantage of playing home games in Denver where opposing teams were a bit intimidated by the "thin air." Now most Moe teams weren't great defensively to a large extent because Issel and a collection of mediocre 4's provided little inside defensively but I'd have liked to see what he did with a legit center. It doesn't help that Vince Boryla, while getting some guys who performed great for Denver in trades, was consistently terrible at drafting during those years.

And English's ability to play inside or outside, off ball or point forward, whatever the team needed was a key part of this ability to use players in more unusual roles.

[Dr Positivity]

But Marques' playmaking numbers were not better than English's. As I posted a few threads ago, Marques ast/per 36 rank on his teams

78 - 13th
79 - 9th
80 - 6th
81 - 4th
82 - 11th
83 - 5th
84 - 7th
85 LAC - 5th
86 LAC - 5th
97 LAC - 6th

There is no player who's the "point" of his team that has numbers like this. This also fits with his average (mid teens) Ast% about half as high as guys like Hill and Vince and most importantly, the impression I got when watching him subjectively, that he was clearly much more James Worthy than Grant Hill as a super dangerous finisher/off ball slasher than a ballhandler/passing pseudo PG. He could pass the ball but so could Alex English

His rebounding % is good at 10-11% but not counting the outlier rookie season he's right around Melo and Durant and Dominique level, rather than Marion and Baylor stats. Pre Denver English actually puts up better rebounding % than most Marques seasons, which indicates to me that English's raw rebounding stats in the Nuggets system may be closer to accurate than Reb%. Pace can inflate rebounding, but if you're intentionally leaking out to hit the fastbreak, maybe it doesn't make a big difference.

[penbeast0]

It was English that had stretches of point forward, not Marques although in 79 when Brian Winters was playing some PG, I'd assume Marques handled a deal of the playmaking responsibility as Moncrief did later.

Interesting though not particularly germaine to note that English was drafted a year earlier by the Bucks than Marques (behind established SFs Dandridge and Junior Bridgeman) but when Dandridge left after that year, the Bucks went with rookie Marques Johnson and dealt English for a year to Indiana (coming in to take over for injured Billy Knight) before the move to Denver . . . and English was the defensive sub as Bridgeman was the instant offense guy.

[Dr Positivity]

I got this from http://www.apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3496

Marques Johnson
Johnson, a teammate of Pressey who got to Milwaukee and to Nelson five years before him, remembers the derivation of "point forward" differently. Winters had retired prior to 1983-84 and Tiny Archibald, finishing up with the Bucks at age 35, got shut down by a bum hamstring in a backcourt light on ballhandlers.

"At the start of the playoffs, Don Nelson came up with the idea to initiate the offense through me at small forward," Johnson said. "So after we went through how we were going to make the adjustments to different plays, my response to Nellie was, 'OK, so instead of a point guard, I'm a point forward.' I remember his response clear as mud, like it was yesterday, saying back to me, 'Yeah. I like that. You're my point forward.' Junior Bridgeman was there -- you can ask him."

When contacted, Bridgeman, the former Bucks sixth man turned successful restaurateur, remembered the role and the results more than the label. Johnson, who averaged 21 points a game in seven Milwaukee seasons before his 1984 trade to the Clippers, chipped in 4.6 assists in 1980-81 (second to Quinn Buckner's 4.7) and led the Bucks with 4.5 apg in 1982-83. In the 1984 postseason, Moncrief actually topped their team with 68 assists, with Johnson and Bob Lanier tied at 55.

In the clincher of Milwaukee's playoff series victory over New Jersey in 1984, the Associated Press game story chronicled Johnson's work as a playmaker and quoted Nelson about the strategy -- without ever mentioning the term 'point forward.' That fall, in the story about Pressey as the team's "point forward," Nelson said: "Both Marques and Press have done a good job at it, but Press has a better feel for the position. ... [Marques] didn't feel confident being a point guard. So when he advanced the ball, we could only run a couple of offensive sets. With Press, we an run any of our sets."

Said Johnson: "I'm not so hung up on the whole deal to think that I'm the original point forward. Rick Barry played the position for Golden State when he ran their offense when Jamaal Wilkes was a rookie. Johnny Johnson, we played Seattle in the playoffs in '79-80 and he was the one who would bring the ball up the floor while Gus Johnson and DJ [Dennis Johnson] would curl off screens. But my claim to fame is just coming up with 'point forward.' The coinage of the term."

Harris disagreed, politely but firmly. "I wouldn't want to call Marques a liar," the longtime coach said, "but when he saw what Paul was doing, he probably said, 'I used to go up there and make plays. I was a point forward.' But he was never called that because I remember Nellie's reaction when I told him about it."

As for Pressey -- the first Bucks player to be referred to in media accounts as a "point forward" -- he seems to enjoy his status as the prototype in many folks' minds. "They're trying to steal my thunder," he said, laughing. "Don't let them steal my thunder!"

So essentially, at the start of the playoffs in 84 - the last month of Marques run in Milwaukee and real relevance - it's an experimental change for Nelson to make him the initiator and pseudo point - and he later says he wasn't confident at it compared to Pressey who would put up 7apg in 85. His teammate claims he was never called point forward. Can't be any more clear that Marques was not a Drexler/Hill

[penbeast0]

I'm a bit surprised that no one has nominated either Chauncey Billups or Nate Archibald (depending on what you want from your PG).

[ElGee]

But Marques' playmaking numbers were not better than English's. As I posted a few threads ago, Marques ast/per 36 rank on his teams

78 - 13th
79 - 9th
80 - 6th
81 - 4th
82 - 11th
83 - 5th
84 - 7th
85 LAC - 5th
86 LAC - 5th
97 LAC - 6th

There is no player who's the "point" of his team that has numbers like this. This also fits with his average (mid teens) Ast% about half as high as guys like Hill and Vince and most importantly, the impression I got when watching him subjectively, that he was clearly much more James Worthy than Grant Hill as a super dangerous finisher/off ball slasher than a ballhandler/passing pseudo PG. He could pass the ball but so could Alex English

His rebounding % is good at 10-11% but not counting the outlier rookie season he's right around Melo and Durant and Dominique level, rather than Marion and Baylor stats. Pre Denver English actually puts up better rebounding % than most Marques seasons, which indicates to me that English's raw rebounding stats in the Nuggets system may be closer to accurate than Reb%. Pace can inflate rebounding, but if you're intentionally leaking out to hit the fastbreak, maybe it doesn't make a big difference.

It's not an outlier season his rookie year, he primarily played the 4. That he still outrebounded most 4's is nothing short of damn impressive to me.

And you're use of per 36 rankings on a team is really really a gross misuse of statistics. Are you filtering for players who play much, or just including all the guys who have hit the court at any point? Michael Jordan ranked 6th in ast/36 on the 98 Bulls...and he was the best player in the league. I mention this because Longley and Randy Brown rank above him. He was 5th the year before with Matt Steigenga ranking above him...because he played 2 games.

1979 Van Lier plays 38 g and is injured, so he is going to be replaced by another PG. The more PG's that replace, the lower someone like Marque will rank in ast/36 on his team, *regardless* of his actual creation value. Remove Sam Smith and Van Lier and he is 7th.

In 1980 he's tied for 4th behind the two PGs and Brian Winters.

In 1981, he's 3rd behind backup PG Mike Evans and starting PG Quinn Buckner, and the gap isn't that large. This was the year he was asked to distribute more, and it was arguably the best ball of his life. In the PS, again 3rd behind the two PGs.

1982 is the biggest misrepresentation of all. You list him 11th. He is tied for 7th. That includes Brad Holland (9 MP) and Robert Smith (17 GP). He trails Buckner, Winters, Moncrief and 41 games of Junior Bridgeman.

1983 he's 5th, and that includes 169 minutes of Armond Hill. He's behind PG Criss, Ford, and 0.3 ast/36 behind Paul Pressey. In the playoffs, Brian Winters is the only rotation player with a higher ast/36.

1984 he's tied for 6th, behind 404 MP from Dunleavy, 107 minutes from Criss, 1007 MP from PG Lorenzo Romar, 1038 MP form PG Tiny Archibald and Paul Pressey.

Not to mention that Marques is playing some PF in his early years.

Basically, if you used this metric to say where Marques Johnson constantly ranked on his teams by assisting from 80-84, you'd say:

80: Behind PG's and Winters
81: Behind PG's
82: Behind PG's, Winters, Moncrief and Bridgeman
83: Behind PG's and Pressey
84: Behind PG's and Pressey

That the PG's on these Bucks teams were mostly passers and not creators doesn't make my point at all, does it?

And I have never ever once called Marques Johnson a point forward. Again, like the MVP comment, no idea where you are getting that from. Although the story you posted should suggest his versatility and skill in that department, should it not?

[Dr Positivity]

This is not about you, I am simply stating the evidence does not support Marques being any more of a playmaker than Alex English was, and it could be argued after looking at it again that Marques is not a significantly greater rebounder (because English's rebounding went down and not up in the Denver system, indicating there's no need to lower his numbers due to pace inflation) - Which I believe makes it very hard to not argue in favor of English for his greater volume of scoring and greater health/longevity

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: English

I have a hard time feeling strongly about the guy, but I do respect what he gave the Nuggets.

[therealbig3]

My count:

Vote:

English-5 (penbeast0, ronnymac2, FJS, Dr Mufasa, Doctor MJ)

Marques-3 (ElGee, therealbig3, DavidStern)

Unseld-2 (Fencer reregistered, JordansBulls)

Manu-1 (drza)



Nominate:

B. Jones-2 (penbeast0, DavidStern)

Parish-2 (Dr Mufasa, Doctor MJ)

Carter-2 (ronnymac2, therealbig3)

Penny-2 (JordansBulls, ElGee)

Worthy-1 (FJS)

Schayes-1 (Fencer reregistered)



Wow, wasn't expecting a 4-way tie for the nomination, lol.

[penbeast0]

Nice that English gets in since he was better than contemporaries like NIque who went in a long time ago (yeah, I know, been there, done that) but once again we come to the end with a multiple nomination tie including my man Bobby Jones and once again I will leave Jones to break the tie. Never a big fan of Penny who I thought was badly overrated as a passer and defender . . . basically not much greater a PG than Steve Smith or Jalen Rose nor appreciably a better defender (better scorer than either though no question) and a short peak career to boot. So, it comes down to Parish or Vince . . . both guys who were good but not great for a long time and Vince's quitting on the Raptors swings my vote over to Parish.

VOTING
Alex English – penbeast0, ronnymac2, FJS, Dr Mufasa, DoctorMJ
Wes Unseld – Fencer, JordansBulls
Pau Gasol –
Manu Ginobili – DavidStern, drza
Grant Hill –
Marques Johnson – ElGee, therealbig3

NOMINATIONS
Bobby Jones – DavidStern
Dolph Schayes – Fencer
Robert Parish – Dr Mufasa, Doctor MJ, penbeast0
Vince Carter – ronnymac2, therealbig3
James Worthy – FJS
Penny Hardaway – JordansBulls, ElGee