Amnesty Brad Miller?

[Worm Guts]

I wouldn't cut Darko just sign Chuck Hayes or some other lower tier center. If we cut Darko, I hope the intention would be to facilitate a higher impact move.

[Worm Guts]

THIS...like it or not, we need darko imo

Come on now, nobody needs Darko.

[shrink]

ESPN wrote an article on Most Likely Amnesty Candidates, and are very confident no one will be cut.

Most likely amnesty cut: None

How likely not to use amnesty this season? Slam dunk

Other amnesty candidates: Darko Milicic, Brad Miller, Nikola Pekovic, Luke Ridnour, Martell Webster

Analysis: The Wolves might be a terrible team but they don't currently have any egregious contracts on their books. Darko haters may beg to differ, but the Wolves still believe in the enigmatic big man from Serbia. Although management might privately acknowledge that the nearly $15 million he's owed over the next three seasons is high, Minnesota likewise believes it would miss Darko's interior presence and shot-blocking ability on a nightly basis. And who would replace him?

You're likewise bound to hear Ridnour's name as an amnesty possibility in the wake of Ricky Rubio's arrival, but someone is going to have to mentor the Spaniard. And if Rubio shines right away, there will still be a trade market for Ridnour. So there's no amnesty urgency in 'Sota.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/71478 ... candidates

[shrink]

More ESPN

The New York Times and Sports Illustrated.com subsequently reported Saturday that the owners and players have reached tentative agreement on an amnesty provision that will allow teams to release one player -- with pay -- at any point during the life of the next collective bargaining agreement. Its one-time use, according to The Times, will be restricted to players under contract as of July 1, 2011, with the team making the move, but sources told ESPN.com that a handful of teams are lobbying for the freedom to use it on a player signed down the road, based on the argument that some teams don't currently have a bad contract on their books but deserve the right to capitalize on the amnesty mechanism to undo a future mistake.

Because negotiations between the league and union are ongoing, none of the finer points are binding yet. The only certainty at this point, sources say, is that a multi-year amnesty clause will be included in the new deal ... with a presumed restriction forbidding the use of the amnesty clause on players acquired via future trades when the league resumes business.

You can understand how small-market teams, that need help in the next CBA, are frustrated by an exception that specifically helps big market teams save money (and reduce everyone's lux share (revenue sharing)). I understand it's necessary to have an amesty though, if the rules are going to change underneath a team, and the lux tax gets harsher, which specifically penalizes the big market overspenders.

For the wolves, it would be nice if they allowed it's use on players acquired in trades, and new signings. The trade option actually helps big market teams too, because it gives them a new group of potential trade partners that could allow them to get rid of a second bad contract. However, it's use over the life of the CBA would make them more likely to overspend in the future. That is also a concern of the ability to use it on future free agent signings - it promotes dangerous overspending, which is something that the league needs to limit (at least, so the players don't ask the overly-willing owners). However, the ability to use it on a future signing (say, like a Greg Oden), would allow the Wolves to at least get some value out of the clause.

[Krapinsky]

I'm not sure anyone is going to give Oden more than a year of guaranteed money. Two years max? So I don't know if pocketing the amnesty for him is a necessary. Sure we could outbid other teams and give him a four year deal, but I don't think Taylor is into setting his money on fire.

It's a shame though that they would put a restriction in there saying teams can't use it on players acquired in a trade.

I still think Miller is the player that makes the most sense. If the salary cap really is frozen at $58M then we would have around $10M to throw at Gasol or we could try and work out a sign and trade (hopefully without giving up Williams).

Hypo: Would you give up a 2014 unprotected pick for Gasol?

[Grits n Gravy]

THIS...like it or not, we need darko imo

Come on now, nobody needs Darko.

when your next best front court defender is pekovic or love, personally i can safely say that we do need him.

[Worm Guts]

He brings something to the team but he's easily replaceable. Even if you don't replace him, some of his loss in defense will be compensated for with an increase in offense.

[Grits n Gravy]

He brings something to the team but he's easily replaceable. Even if you don't replace him, some of his loss in defense will be compensated for with an increase in offense.

thats very true, i guess i just don't see his contract as a negative and your right we would be better offensively...i just doubt that we'd gain as much offensively as we would lose defensively...i wouldn't want to cut darko and surely wouldn't unless a defensive presense(who probably would cost close to as much) was already organised to come in. i am definitely looking forward to seeing darko play under a coach who plays to his strength and doesn't ask him to do way more than he is capable of.

[younggunsmn]

If the owners get their way and get a 50/50 split, by my calculations the cap would be set at 53.3 million next year, and the Wolves would be at about 53.4 million before signing Malcolm Lee.

Dumping Miller would clear about 4.75 million in 2011-12 cap room and 848k the following year. Not a whole lot. Less than the MLE.

The only scenario I could see us amnesty-ing Miller is to create cap space to trade for an existing contract(s), up to 4.65 million or so. It wouldn't create enough room to trade for OJ Mayo without sending salary out, for instance.

It was also rumored the amnesty provision could be used once during the life of the CBA. It might be smarter to wait until we could make better use of it.

If anyone is amnesty-d, Pekovic would be my most likely at 2 yrs and 9.5 mil left, and Darko at ~12 mil guaranteed over 3 years.

It just doesn't really make sense for the Wolves to amnesty anyone unless they can use the resulting cap space to acquire a pretty good player because:
1. we don't have to worry about the lux
2. Taylor still has to pay the player after he is amnestied, plus we have to pay another player to take his place.

[younggunsmn]

It should be reduced by approx the change in BRI percentage allotted to the players. Wyn has the salary cap projected at $58.044 Mil based on the old CBA. If we assume 52.5% of the BRI, I'd assume we would be around 52.5/57x58.044 = $53.5 Mil cap. If we assume 50% of the BRI, it would be around 50/57x58.044 = $51 Mil. If we factor in Derrick Williams salary based on the old CBA, our cap number is already at $52.6 Mil. It is unlikely we are much under the cap if at all.

Read that the salary cap will be locked at $58M the next two years.

I read that too. Don't know if I believe it, but they probly do need to transition from the existing cap down to a smaller one over a couple years, so I was probably wrong with my numbers for next year. A $58M cap will likely result in close to 10% of the players salaries going back to the owners via the escrow provisions.

Your numbers are right, you just didn't take into account the increase in BRI from 2010 to 2011.
http://www.nba.com/2011/news/07/22/bri-audit/index.html
2010-11 cap was 58.044.
BRI increased from 3.643 Bil (2009-10) to 3.817 Bil (2010-11) (4.776%)

58.044 * 1.04776 * (50/57) = 53.34 milllion (50/50 split)
58.044 * 1.04776 * (52/57) = 55.48 million (52/48 split)

I don't know if the calculations for the cap or the escrow % will stay the same in a new CBA,
but if they do these are the numbers we are looking at. There are enough guys coming off the books to offset the cap drop, but you are right in that the league might actually end up pocketing considerable escrow money from the players for a couple of years. And freezing the cap at 58.044 million instead of letting it drop will increase the amount of escrow money they will need to withhold.

Players share in old deal for last year was $2.176 bil.

Under 50/50 that drops to 1.909 billion
Under 52/48 that drops to 1.985 billion

That's either 267 million or 191 million in salary difference.

Assuming BRI grows at 4.776% again, the player's share of income increases 91 million $.
So the players would have to make up 176 million or 100 million via escrow If total player salary remained exactly the same as last year. Under a 50/50 split they'd give back 8.8% via escrow.
Under a 52/48 split they'd give back 4.8%. Under the old system players usually got all of their escrow money back.

It's not exactly a salary rollback (like the NHL experienced). Of course all of this depends on how willing/able teams are to spend after a new CBA is hammered out.

[horaceworthy]

I think Love is fine in the short term at center and it lets us put our 5 best on the floor. If there is an issue then start Pekovic and maybe sign some random big body, there are a hundred different ways to replace a backup caliber center. Darko's not going to be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.

I think that depends how close to the playoffs we can be. Likely not this year, but maybe next? I think having Darko as a defensive big off the bench certainly makes us better than not having anyone for that role. Last year Darko was effective from time to time defending the other team's best front court player, from Amare to Pau to Jefferson. I don't like the idea of watching Love, Pek, or Randolpoh getting eaten alive and having nothing to throw at them.

Maybe I'm just a bigger Darko fan than everyone else. At the beginning of the year he was atrocious. At the end of the year it looked like he had given up -- but then again, so did the entire team (we lost like 18 in a row or something at the end). Yet still, he was better than Pekovic just about the entire year.

I think whether or not Darko is able to make the Wolves measurably better in any way is up for debate. He had some nice moments last year that reminded everybody why Detroit picked him, but they were surrounded by huge chunks of time that showed why he's considered such a disappointment.

I don't really see the upside to using the amnesty on him this off-season, if it is indeed a multi-year option. I don't really see the point in using on Miller or any contract that essentially comes off the books after this year. I think the FO should hold keep it in their hip pocket in case they want to use it on Darko, Pekovic or Ridnour down the road.

[Klomp]

I think whether or not Darko is able to make the Wolves measurably better in any way is up for debate. He had some nice moments last year that reminded everybody why Detroit picked him, but they were surrounded by huge chunks of time that showed why he's considered such a disappointment.

He was also hurt much of last year. People are often quick to dismiss Beasley's struggles last year because of his injury, but they don't do the same for Darko.

[Krapinsky]

Having a point guard that can actually create is going to make all of our players much less mistake prone, especially Darko and Beasley. I'd like to see how those guys can improve when they're not asked to force the issue (a la via Ramis offense)

[Narf]

THIS...like it or not, we need darko imo

Come on now, nobody needs Darko.

when your next best front court defender is pekovic or love, personally i can safely say that we do need him.

You really think Love and Pek were better than Randolph and Tolliver on defense?
I don't.

[shangrila]

I think whether or not Darko is able to make the Wolves measurably better in any way is up for debate. He had some nice moments last year that reminded everybody why Detroit picked him, but they were surrounded by huge chunks of time that showed why he's considered such a disappointment.

He was also hurt much of last year. People are often quick to dismiss Beasley's struggles last year because of his injury, but they don't do the same for Darko.

But his issues weren't with health. He had a few injuries, yeah, but that isn't the reason why he shot 3 foot hook shots (and has his entire career) instead of laying it up. It's not the reason he constantly held the ball low enough behind his head that the opposing point guard could easily steal it from him. It's not the reason he swatted at everything so he could get off the court as quickly as possible.

The guy just isn't good. He's mentally soft, which makes him inconsistent, which in a 8 year veteran is a huge red flag.

I doubt the team amnesties anyone right now though, now that I think about it. They'll likely give everyone some time under Adelman and then amnesty whoever doesn't fit.