What should Blue Jays' off-season focus be?

[LittleOzzy]

With the Major League Baseball off-season in full swing now with free agents eligible to sign wherever they want, it's time to shift our focus to Canada's lone team, the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Jays finished the 2011 season 81-81, which was good for fourth place in the American League East. They were 10 games out of the Wild Card, so needless to say, the team has some work to do now that the off-season is upon us.

Our question for you today is what should the Jays focus on adding the most via free agency or trade? Hitters, starting pitching or the bullpen?

The Argument for Offence

While General Manager Alex Anthopoulos said during a conference call on Tuesday that another bat was "very low on the priority list and we have a lot of other areas we'd rather address first," one could argue that another bat is what the team needs.

In overall offence in 2011, the Jays managed to score the sixth-most runs in baseball, while posting the 11th-best OPS, 18th-best OBP and 20th-best average.

One could wonder how much better the Jays could be if they could get some more protection in their lineup for Jose Bautista.

Starting Off

In 2011, the Blue Jays' starting pitchers ranked 25th in baseball, recording a 4.55 ERA. Only the Twins, Rockies, Cubs, Royals and Orioles' staffs struggled more.

Ricky Romero was stellar for the club, posting a 15-11 record with a strong 2.92 ERA. Henderson Alvarez started 10 games and despite posting a 3.53 ERA, won only one game. After that, the Jays starters all had down years in 2011, with Brandon Morrow (4.72 ERA in 30 starts), Brett Cecil (4.73 ERA in 20 starts), and Kyle Drabek (6.16 ERA in 14 starts) getting most of the other starts.

Call To the 'Pen

Last season the Blue Jays bullpen had the 21st-best ERA in all of baseball with a .388 mark, while being tied for third in the league for blown saves with 25.

Now, while all of those blown saves didn't result in losses, it still signifies a problem as their direct competition in the AL East were all much better in that stat, with the Rays bullpen only blowing 12 saves and the Red Sox and Yankees bullpens each only stumbling 16 times apiece.

The blown save stat aside, the Jays bullpen is in flux, with the in-season departures of Marc Rzepczynski, Jason Frasor and Octavio Dotel, and the fact that the two men who handled the bulk of the ninth inning duties in 2011, Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch, are both free agents.

Lots more info if you click the link: http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=379567

[FreeAgent]

I have a feeling our SP will come through next season. Between Romero/Morrow/Alvarez I think it's pretty solid. I am hoping we get Darvish though.

Personally, I'd like to go for a big bat at 1B. That would make us just so much better and give us a full lineup of hitters.

[rarefind]

Darvish and Fielder should not be out of the reach for the likes of Rogers. Darvish of course more so, and just giving in to Prince shouldn't be the case either. Pretty sure there are other teams that can justify giving him more money like the Cubs.

Our record last year does us much of a disservice. Surely we were 10 games out of a wildcard but this team should have probably won 5 more games at minimum if it wasn't for questionable moves and holding on to Jo-Jo Reyes for half the year and having to make do with the likes of Jayson Nix and others. You assume firstly that even without addition, having Lawrie and the bounce-backs of guys like Rasmus and Morrow for example that this team is better than .500. Then you project a couple big additions and in my opinion it is not unreasonable to suggest that the Jays could compete as early as next year despite being unlikely.

AA speaks routinely of that a team shouldn't break the bank until you are one piece away. I agree, but that piece does not have to be added when the team is on the cusp of winning the world series. Prince Fielder on a 6-7 year term solidifies this team's offense going forward and barring the absolute collapse of Prince (which shouldn't happen as he'd be in position to earn one more big contract after the deal ends). From an offensive perspective, if this team adds Prince it is fair to say that we are almost set going forward assuming that one of Snider, Thames or Gose develop or are traded into a corner outfielder. One of Escobar or Hech (Johnson stop gap) develop into or are traded for a second baseman.

Obviously that is just our offense, but that would be scary good going forward, maybe not a winner next year; but with the continued development of the young guys an offense with the best potential in baseball perhaps. Adding an arm would be fantastic as well, but our organizational depth almost guarantees that guys will fill our needs from within the organization or can simply be traded at some point. Probably won't happen, but there is a reason why Fielder is linked heavily to the Jays, it makes sense for too many reasons.

[Wo1verine]

The focus should be on acquiring all-star level talent.. Guys who have done it before, we can't keep going after players like Escobar, Morrow, Rasmus, they're good, but not good enough, it's time to pay up and get guarantee production for once instead of taking chances.

[flatjacket1]

I believe their offseason focus should be on acquiring players who can net us picks at the end of the season, being patient and drafting well.

We clearly don't have the pieces to go for it and we would have to stick our necks out a lot to get a shot, so I say we wait.

Continue what we did last offseason.

[Hendrix]

Starting pitching- Need a guy that can pitch near the top of the roation like CJ Wilson or Darvish, and also could probably use a mid rotation guy to add some consistancy so we don't need a Jojo Reyes, or Cecil type guy in our rotation. Someone like Erik Bedard.

Offense- Could use a big bat at either 1st (Fielder) or DH (Ortiz). Doesn't really matter to me much. I think EE/Lind could platoon the position left over pretty well beit 1st or DH.

Bullpen- Could use a bit of shoring up but not a huge task, and improved SP'ing would help this too.

[Hendrix]

I believe their offseason focus should be on acquiring players who can net us picks at the end of the season, being patient and drafting well.

We clearly don't have the pieces to go for it and we would have to stick our necks out a lot to get a shot, so I say we wait.

Continue what we did last offseason.

I don't agree that we don't have the pieces to go for it.

We finished .500, and that was with a huge contributions from

2b- Aaron Hill (429pa's)(-0.8WAR)
CF-Rajai Davis (338pa's)(-0.2WAR)
DH-Juan Rivera (275pa's)(-0.1WAR)
3b-Jason Nix (151pa's)(0.1WAR)
OF-Corey Paterson (351pa's)(0.3WAR)
SP-JoJo Reyes (110ip)(5.4ERA)
SP-Kyle Drabek (78ip)(6.06ERA)
SP-Brett Cecil (123ip)(4.7ERA)

Now we've replaced a pretty good chunk of these guys with

2b-Kelly Johnson
CF-Colby Rasmus
LF-Eric Thames
3b-Brett Lawrie

So basically that replaces all the position players that were awful. And with the exception of Thames all these guys are quite capible of putting up 3-5 WAR seasons. The only thing left to really address is a couple starting pitching spots and either DH or 1B.

I'de say needing to aquire 3 players, and being in the financial position we are in, with the minor league system we have definitily puts us in striking range.

[Weems]

I'm bordering on lust for Darvish - for no real reason, no insane expectations - he'd be my preferred guy.

I believe we're a top organization, but don't believe we're that close to competing in the AL East. Cashing in prospects and/or spending an unrealistic amount of money could springboard us to contention, but I don't see that happening. I see progress being gradual even if it's at the expense of Bautista's prime value. Darvish has youth on his side and can potentially pitch with us around his peak while we're taking the final steps to contending. I don't see Wilson aging like Halladay/Lee and haven't even accepted that he's as good as he's shown. I see Fielder in the same vain where we'd just be wasting his prime value and may contend in his decline.

[Randle McMurphy]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD_ZrcUZv94&feature=player_embedded#![/youtube]

Give all the money to El Talento, Yoenis Cespedes.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=15469

[flatjacket1]

I believe their offseason focus should be on acquiring players who can net us picks at the end of the season, being patient and drafting well.

We clearly don't have the pieces to go for it and we would have to stick our necks out a lot to get a shot, so I say we wait.

Continue what we did last offseason.

I don't agree that we don't have the pieces to go for it.

We finished .500, and that was with a huge contributions from

2b- Aaron Hill (429pa's)(-0.8WAR)
CF-Rajai Davis (338pa's)(-0.2WAR)
DH-Juan Rivera (275pa's)(-0.1WAR)
3b-Jason Nix (151pa's)(0.1WAR)
OF-Corey Paterson (351pa's)(0.3WAR)
SP-JoJo Reyes (110ip)(5.4ERA)
SP-Kyle Drabek (78ip)(6.06ERA)
SP-Brett Cecil (123ip)(4.7ERA)

Now we've replaced a pretty good chunk of these guys with

2b-Kelly Johnson
CF-Colby Rasmus
LF-Eric Thames
3b-Brett Lawrie

So basically that replaces all the position players that were awful. And with the exception of Thames all these guys are quite capible of putting up 3-5 WAR seasons. The only thing left to really address is a couple starting pitching spots and either DH or 1B.

I'de say needing to aquire 3 players, and being in the financial position we are in, with the minor league system we have definitily puts us in striking range.

Keep in mind all of those guys were penciled in for bigger and better seasons. Everybody won't perform at their peak during the same time, so at most thats a +3 win deviation. Lawrie also played above himself, next year his average will be closer to .300.

I think we got a lot of guys almost up in the majors, and development time or another gap year would be most beneficial.

[5DOM]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD_ZrcUZv94&feature=player_embedded#![/youtube]

Give all the money to El Talento, Yoenis Cespedes.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=15469

Source: Miami Marlins considered favorites to land Cuban CF Yoenis Cespedes

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_ba ... l+Blogs%29

[Hendrix]

Keep in mind all of those guys were penciled in for bigger and better seasons. Everybody won't perform at their peak during the same time, so at most thats a +3 win deviation. Lawrie also played above himself, next year his average will be closer to .300.

I think we got a lot of guys almost up in the majors, and development time or another gap year would be most beneficial.

No everybody wont perform at their peak, but the variance should cancel out to a degree. For example Bautista might play a bit worse, but Morrow may play a bit better.


The constants in the equation are Bautista, Morrow, Romero, Encarnacion, Lind, Escobar, Arencibia. I think you wouldn't expect a huge WAR swing from the group in total. Like I said worse performances might be canceled out by better seasons from others.

So the variables (if we added a few new guys as well through FA or trade) would be.. Giving up these guys.

2b- Aaron Hill (429pa's)(-0.8WAR)
CF-Rajai Davis (338pa's)(-0.2WAR)
DH-Juan Rivera (275pa's)(-0.1WAR)
3b-Jason Nix (151pa's)(0.1WAR)
OF-Corey Paterson (351pa's)(0.3WAR)
SP-JoJo Reyes (110ip)(5.4ERA)
SP-Kyle Drabek (78ip)(6.06ERA)
SP-Brett Cecil (123ip)(4.7ERA)

For these guys.

2b-Kelly Johnson
CF-Colby Rasmus
LF-Eric Thames
3b-Brett Lawrie
DH-Ortiz
SP-Yu Darvish
SP-Erik Bedard or a similar SP.

The first group in total had ~ 1 WAR combined between all of them. Considering we finished at 81 wins do you not think the 2nd group would be capible of combined putting up 10-15 WAR between all of them? Everybody wont perform at their peak, but the difference between the 1st group and the 2nd is a heck of a lot more then 3 wins imo.

[Randle McMurphy]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD_ZrcUZv94&feature=player_embedded#![/youtube]

Give all the money to El Talento, Yoenis Cespedes.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=15469

Source: Miami Marlins considered favorites to land Cuban CF Yoenis Cespedes

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_ba ... l+Blogs%29

RT @JeffPassan: Cespedes suitors from @TBrownYahoo: Yankees, Phillies, Marlins, Blue Jays, Giants, Nationals, Indians, A's, Pirates.

All of it to Cespedes.

[dballislife]

sign darvish, ortiz, and papelbon and get the season started

[flatjacket1]

Keep in mind all of those guys were penciled in for bigger and better seasons. Everybody won't perform at their peak during the same time, so at most thats a +3 win deviation. Lawrie also played above himself, next year his average will be closer to .300.

I think we got a lot of guys almost up in the majors, and development time or another gap year would be most beneficial.

No everybody wont perform at their peak, but the variance should cancel out to a degree. For example Bautista might play a bit worse, but Morrow may play a bit better.


The constants in the equation are Bautista, Morrow, Romero, Encarnacion, Lind, Escobar, Arencibia. I think you wouldn't expect a huge WAR swing from the group in total. Like I said worse performances might be canceled out by better seasons from others.

So the variables (if we added a few new guys as well through FA or trade) would be.. Giving up these guys.

2b- Aaron Hill (429pa's)(-0.8WAR)
CF-Rajai Davis (338pa's)(-0.2WAR)
DH-Juan Rivera (275pa's)(-0.1WAR)
3b-Jason Nix (151pa's)(0.1WAR)
OF-Corey Paterson (351pa's)(0.3WAR)
SP-JoJo Reyes (110ip)(5.4ERA)
SP-Kyle Drabek (78ip)(6.06ERA)
SP-Brett Cecil (123ip)(4.7ERA)

For these guys.

2b-Kelly Johnson
CF-Colby Rasmus
LF-Eric Thames
3b-Brett Lawrie
DH-Ortiz
SP-Yu Darvish
SP-Erik Bedard or a similar SP.

The first group in total had ~ 1 WAR combined between all of them. Considering we finished at 81 wins do you not think the 2nd group would be capible of combined putting up 10-15 WAR between all of them? Everybody wont perform at their peak, but the difference between the 1st group and the 2nd is a heck of a lot more then 3 wins imo.

Nobody is a given. Just like you couldn't count on Bautista on being a 50 HR guy 4 years ago, you can't count on Rasmus turning things around or Ortiz not falling off a cliff production wise.

Last year we won 81 games, which was with Lawrie's unbelievable and unmaintainable average and HR pace, mixed in with Bautista's best season ever (MVP like) and Francisco's scoreless streak.

I was arguing we didn't have the talent on our roster to go for it, and you disagreed. You can't count in players (Who are still huge question marks) like David Ortiz (Who is due for a Frank Thomas like season) or Yu Darvish (Who may not translate well to the Americanized version of the sport) even if you, in your argument, were able to pencil them in.

Right now we have a talented group of young players, and a front office with people smarter than both of us saying we aren't in a position to contend so why spend huge dollars on a free agent and sacrifice future (both developmental wise [like blocking players] and draft pick wise) for arguably the weakest free agent class in recent memory.

The 2012 draft is strong, lets continue what we have been doing... For now. I'm not arguing were not close, I'm just arguing that we don't have the talent to win 90 games YET. This year it was closers failing, next year it will be bad defense, the year after, Bautista fails. Its something new every year. Until your healthy and unhealthy roster can be penciled in as better than two of New York, Boston, and Tampa, your team isn't going to win many games.

I agree we need to refill the bullpen, add a closer, and take some gambles on players like the Cuban player who hit 30 jacks in Cuba. Those are the types of contracts we can stomach if things go sideways.

[baulderdash77]

We really need to sign a #2 starter who's going to get us 200 IP, 32 starts & a sub 4 ERA. That's our #1 priority.

Unfortunately there's only like 4 guys that fit that profile on the market: CJ Wilson, Yu Darvish, Mark Buerhle, Edwin Jackson. But we really need to get one of those guys probably in that order.

If we secure one of those guys then our bullpen will be better because they will have less usage. Romero, #2 Starter, Morrow, Alvarez should get us 750 IP- at least 120 IP more than we got from our top 4 starters last year. That kind of pressure off the bullpen will give us quite a bit less runs because the relievers can bring their best stuff each game.

The #2 priority for the team is to fill out the bullpen with another LHP and a closer. We only have 1 lefty on the roster (unless you count Rommie Lewis or Brad Mills- eek) next year so it's critical to get another one or convert someone (read: Cecil who I think would be a dominant lefty reliever- check out his splits). Then finally we need a closer. It's been getting a lot of press but you all know it's a major issue and I'm sure it's going to be addressed.