The Conundrum that is LeBron James

[Wannabe MEP]

LeBron James has a freakish combination of athleticism and ability. His stats are unreal. He is at the top of the list of any "best player" stat like PER, Win Shares, RAPM, etc. . He scores a ton of points, and does so efficiently. He's a very good rebounder for his position. He gets a lot of steals. He's an exceptional passer for his position. He can create his own shot as well as just about anyone. He can guard just about anyone on the court.

But he hasn't won the title.

Some say that he hasn't been in the right team situation just yet, while others claim that he lacks the killer instinct. I'm not rejecting either of those hypotheses. But let me offer a third possibility.

The pieces of a championship team
1) Elite offensive spark
2) Elite defensive frontcourt player(s)
3) Elite perimeter defender
4) Solid stretch-big
5) Solid complementary offensive spark

for example:
2011
1) Dirk
2) Chandler/Haywood
3) Marion/Kidd
4) Dirk
5) Terry/Kidd

2009, 2010
1) Kobe
2) Odom/Bynum
3) Artest/Ariza
4) Odom
5) Gasol

2008
1) Pierce
2) Garnett
3) T. Allen/Pierce
4) Garnett/Posey
5) R. Allen/Garnett/Rondo

2003, 2005, 2007
1) Duncan
2) Duncan/Horry
3) Bowen/Ginobili/Jackson
4) Horry/Jackson
5) Parker/Ginobili

2006
1) Wade
2) Shaq/Mourning/Haslem
3) Posey
4) Posey
5) Shaq

2004
1) Billups
2) Wallace/Wallace
3) Prince
4) Rasheed
5) Rip

2000-2002
1) Shaq
2) Shaq/Horry/Grant
3) Horry/Fisher/Kobe
4) Horry
5) Kobe

Jack-of-all-Trades...

The beauty of LeBron James is that he can fulfill basically every single role on there pretty well
1) LeBron -- almost Magic Johnson-like passing ability and uber-efficient scorer
2) LeBron -- seriously, who can he not guard in the post (other than 1970s Kareem)??
3) LeBron -- seriously, who can he not guard on the perimeter??
4) LeBron -- Horry, with major upgrade in explosiveness and ball-handling.
5) LeBron -- See #1

...Master of None?!?

The problem that I'm seeing: he's not really the best guy for any of these particular roles by itself. He's like a decathlete who can't win any individual events. He's almost the most versatile player imaginable, but he's not really the best at anything:

Facilitator? No. I'd take at least Nash, Paul, and Wade before him.
Scorer? Nope. Dirk, Ginobili, Wade, Kobe.
Frontcourt defender? No: Garnett, Bogut, Howard, Collison, Chuck Hayes, Josh Smith, Nene, etc.
Perimeter defender? Don't think so. Luol Deng, Tony Allen, Artest, Gerald Wallace, Battier come to mind.
Stretch-big? Dirk and, depending on the specific role, guys like Ryan Anderson, Frye, Rashard Lewis, Gerald Wallace, etc.
Shooter? Ha!

The problem is that it's relatively easy to compose a lineup that has someone who is better than (or at least roughly on par with) LeBron James for every specific role possible. The 2011 Dallas Mavericks top unit, for example:
1) Elite offensive spark = Dirk>LeBron
2) Elite defensive frontcourt player = Chandler>LeBron
3) Elite perimeter defender = Marion~LeBron
4) Solid stretch-big = Dirk>LeBron
5) Solid complementary offensive spark = Terry~LeBron

[Nivek]

I'm sorta puzzled about what you think the conundrum is. Lebron shouldn't need to be the best at each of those roles -- he does teammates, after all. Fact is, Lebron is at an elite level in each of those categories, at least most of the time. If there's a conundrum with Lebron, it's why such an elite player underwhelmed in his team's final playoff series the past couple years.

[SideshowBob]

I consider him the best in the scoring/overall offensive spark department

[jambalaya]

If for the pieces of a championship team a player can not be more than 1 of the offensive pieces (or more than one of the defensive pieces) then Dallas missed on #4 and was the only title team in the period listed to miss a piece.

If you let players fill more than one offensive piece then Dirk covered that role. Or Butler might next season if he comes back. Marion hasn't been able to perform that role for quite some time. Kidd might count for this is some small lineups.


Miami could get scored this way
1) Elite offensive spark =Wade or James
2) Elite defensive frontcourt player = Bosh and / or Anthony
3) Elite perimeter defender = James
4) Solid stretch-big = If you count SFs then they have Miller and Jones. Bosh and Haslem also help out from mid-range.
5) Solid complementary offensive spark = James or Wade

James was barely above 35% from 3 pt range once in his career. Even though it may be a role primarily for others, if he could get back above 35% or up to 37% that would be a modest additional boost to their title chances.

[Wannabe MEP]

I'm sorta puzzled about what you think the conundrum is. Lebron shouldn't need to be the best at each of those roles -- he does teammates, after all. Fact is, Lebron is at an elite level in each of those categories, at least most of the time. If there's a conundrum with Lebron, it's why such an elite player underwhelmed in his team's final playoff series the past couple years.

Best player in the league by every measure imaginable, and it's not even close. No titles after 8 seasons. There's your conundrum right there.

Especially after the three stooges all got together. 2010 prior-informed RAPM said LeBron and Wade were the two best players in the league and that Bosh was the 9th best, and the second best big (behind Howard) who isn't really old.

Just add up 2010 RAPM scores for those three + Bibby and Haslem (for example): 22.8. Now contrast with the leading Mavs unit that actually got together and won the title: 11.5. That difference is ludicrous, especially after the three stooges got absolutely played off the court by Dallas's best units.

So why did this happen??
1) LeBron went passive/doesn't have a killer instinct/disappeared in the finals. Maybe it was karma.
2) Dallas was just flat-out better.

I'm going with #2. My argument is chemistry. Not chemistry, as in: are guys buddy-buddy in the locker room? But chemistry as in: LeBron James is nowhere near as valuable on the Heat.

He was the 3rd best offensive player according to 2010 RAPM at +7.7.
He was the 25th best offensive player according to 2011 RAPM at +1.9 (not prior-informed).

LeBron James is so good and so versatile that if you add him to a poor team, he automatically gives you everything you didn't have before. Congratulations, you are now a contender. But this is my theory: if you add him to a team that is already very good, he doesn't make the team great. He's just a really good--but really expensive--role player.

He needs to decide who he wants to be and commit to developing as either: Magic Johnson 2.0 or Robert Horry/Shawn Marion. Right now he's a bastardized version of both.

[Wannabe MEP]

I consider him the best in the scoring/overall offensive spark department

I don't. His teammate is better. Which forces him to either:
1) Take the ball out of the hands of a superior facilitator, thereby reducing the team's offensive efficiency, or
2) Become a complementary scorer, which he's never really learned how to do. He especially needs to develop a better spot-up, quick-release three.

Or he needs to be traded.

[Nivek]

Okay, I think we're pretty much in the same place when it comes to the conundrum. I think both 1 and 2 are true. Dallas was the better TEAM in the Finals AND Lebron didn't perform up to his abilities.

I do agree that the Lebron-Wade "fit" in Miami isn't ideal. They both need the ball to create and be effective. It's not that they're selfish, it's just that there's only one ball and they're both accustomed to having it most of the time on offense. Playing off the ball is as much a skill as anything else, and both guys have some learning to do in that area.

Your point about chemistry is good. One of the fun and interesting aspects to statistical analysis in hoops is that the player/role/context interactions are both important and difficult to quantify. There are ways to dig out and interpret the info, of course -- it's just not easy to do.

I don't watch Miami regularly, but when I do, I find myself wondering why they don't run more screen/roll sets with Lebron screening for Wade. With a guy like Miller lurking in the off corner or the wing and Bosh lurking closer to the paint, it'd be a tough cover for most teams. I mean seriously -- are you going to trap the ball handler? Then Lebron gets a free run at the lane. Cheat the wing defender into the middle to help on Wade? Then Miller is open from 3 or Bosh on the wing. You're gonna switch on the screen? Okay, then Lebron is being defended by a PG (can you say post up?) and Wade's being defended by a SF (can you say blow-by?). I know it's not the most creative scheme in the world, but it would be effective.

[Doctor MJ]

So the theory is LeBron simply uses up too much oxygen in the room when he's let to do what he does best, and so it's harder to build talent around him appropriately, yes?

There is some truth in that.

Now, do I think there's any reason that Cleveland couldn't have gotten even better with some tweaks to it, and ended up winning titles? Nope. LeBron truly could have won titles with that basic team which would have been one of the great accomplishments in history. In terms of impact in Cleveland, LeBron was beyond huge.

It is disappointing to see what's happened with Miami's offense thus far though. I was really hoping that LeBron could start to approximate Magic, which to me is the only reasonable course of action when you choose to join a team with Wade and Bosh and nothing else. He's pretty far away from that now which I think actually came as a shock to him. He needs to get better now before I really consider him on the short list of great offensive players in history.

[Wannabe MEP]

It is disappointing to see what's happened with Miami's offense thus far though. I was really hoping that LeBron could start to approximate Magic

Not gonna happen if he's playing next to Wade. I vote trade him:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=6lb672f
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7bpusfc

[Nivek]

The difficulty of playing a Magic role on that Miami team is that Magic controlled the ball and everyone else played off of him. Wade needs the ball to be effective.

[Doctor MJ]

It is disappointing to see what's happened with Miami's offense thus far though. I was really hoping that LeBron could start to approximate Magic

Not gonna happen if he's playing next to Wade. I vote trade him:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=6lb672f
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7bpusfc

Nah, trading a player like LeBron carries with it huge effects other than just best fit.

I'll agree with you at least that I could see a team consider the trade for Howard.

[Doctor MJ]

The difficulty of playing a Magic role on that Miami team is that Magic controlled the ball and everyone else played off of him. Wade needs the ball to be effective.

Ah, yes to a certain extent, LeBron's doomed because he ran toward a situation that may have no possible great solution...which if he did, he did only because he really didn't understand what the players around him in Cleveland were doing.

Thing is though, there's a difference between "needing the ball to do superstar damage and "needing the ball large amounts of time to be any improvement on what LeBron had with him in Cleveland". The team is never going to be completely non-redundant, but if the Heatles can't find away to get closer to top tier offensive status that has to be considered a kind of failure.

[ayjaykhanna]

I understand what Los Soles is trying to say. It's just the irony that even though he is such a great player in nearly every statistical category, why's taking it so long for him to get a ring? It just seems that his "talents" don't add up to him ever winning a ring. It always seems to be a one-man show with his talent. If he can do virtually everything, why can't he win?

They say the classic recipe for a championship starts with a top caliber point guard and a premier center.

Lebron though, he really is just a glorified version of Tracy McGrady. Just my opinion.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29SDllawaw8[/youtube]

[Wannabe MEP]

I vote trade him:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7bpusfc (LeBron for Luol Deng, Omer Asik, and Taj Gibson)

Nah, trading a player like LeBron carries with it huge effects other than just best fit.

Does it? Like what, when you already have Wade and Bosh on your team? Next to Wade, LeBron becomes a disinterested Luol Deng. Why not pick up the real Deng, as well as a couple of young defensive frontcourt studs for pennies? I'm arguing that the team gets better, but also you don't have to worry about the ridiculousness of the Wade-LeBron alpha-male competition. Wade gets to be the uncontested face of the franchise again, and Bosh upgrades from third fiddle.

I vote trade him:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=6lb672f

I'll agree with you at least that I could see a team consider the trade for Howard.

This one is really the obvious play, for both teams. But I guess it's just so jarring. GMs wouldn't actually pull that kind of move.

[Wannabe MEP]

They say the classic recipe for a championship starts with a top caliber point guard and a premier center.

And I would agree with that basic idea, but rephrase: the recipe for a championship starts with:
1) Elite facilitator/scorer
2) Elite defensive frontcourt

Unless LeBron and Wade divorce and LeBron commits to channeling Magic, he is not #1. Not even close.
As long as he's playing small forward, he's not greatly contributing to #2.

Ergo, the best player in the NBA is a nothing more than a really flashy role player.

[Wannabe MEP]

Let me see if I can rephrase the conundrum:

LeBron is the best player in the NBA. Therefore...

LeBron > Chris Paul
LeBron > Steve Nash
LeBron > Dwyane Wade
. . . and . . .
LeBron > Shane Battier
LeBron > Shawn Marion
LeBron > Luol Deng
. . . but . . .
LeBron + _____ < CP3 + Battier
LeBron + _____ < Nash + Marion
LeBron + _____ < Wade + Deng

The point is that LeBron gives you a great offensive spark and a great, versatile defender at the three. But you can easily replace (and improve on) everything he brings with two players.

[primecougar]

haha i love reading everywhere on realgm that lebron can guard in the post.

bargs schooled him couple of times and he switched off.

he was getting hidden in the 09 playoffs, he was switched all over the court and eventually got abused by rafer f***in alston.

if he can guard the post so well and he already has a team mate that scores (so you can use that excuse) why didnt he switch on to dirk? why didnt he guard kg or any big???? because he cant.

[Doctor MJ]

The point is that LeBron gives you a great offensive spark and a great, versatile defender at the three. But you can easily replace (and improve on) everything he brings with two players.

I don't see any reason to cite LeBron as being particularly prone diminishing returns on defense. All things being equal, you'd certainly prefer to have all that offensive and defensive talent in one player.

Agree that what you speak of is an issue on offense and what, based on what he's proven to this point, keeps him from being an offensive GOAT candidate and why the choice of Nash over him on offense is a clear one to this point even though I'd still prefer LeBron on my team compared to Nash.

[rrravenred]

I don't think it's quite fair to cast Lebron as a Jack-of-all-trades and Master of None. He does have an enormously disruptive effect on a defense which is not matched by any other player on the Heat (yes, including Wade) and has a little way to improve as a defender as well.

Like the good Doctor, I'm non-plussed that Lebron didn't change his role to that of a facilitator and high percentage / low-volume scorer (with more of a post game), which did appear to be the obvious evolution for his game.

However, I was also really sceptical about the Heat gelling within the space of a single season, especially after Wade's interrupted pre-season. Making the finals actually over-achieved on my expectations there. The best from this group is yet to come, I feel (although it may be a brief flowering if Wade declines).

There are serious redundancy issues on the team, as well as a weak bench and frontcourt rotation, but at the same time, I don't really think that you can plug any other player into the SF spot on the Heat and expect better results.

I have to say I really don't see the "conundrum" Los Soles puts. All sorts of externalities affect a championship run, and to fix the result as being attributable to one player on a team is a risky proposition.

[ardee]

It is disappointing to see what's happened with Miami's offense thus far though. I was really hoping that LeBron could start to approximate Magic

Not gonna happen if he's playing next to Wade. I vote trade him:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=6lb672f
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7bpusfc

Dude how can you actually suggest trading LeBron James?

Remember this. The Heat built this team with the future in mind. Wade is currently 30 years old. His style of play and lack of a jumpshot gives him a maximum of two more years at an elite level. Once that is over, the Heat will resemble the Lakers right now, but a lot worse, because Kobe is still elite due to his skills.

LeBron is just 26, and has time to tailor his game to grow with age. Even when Wade fades, he can become LeBron's sidekick and the Heat will still be relevant at least until LeBron turns 31.

The Heat would never trade LeBron unless it is for Howard .And we know that neither team would bite on that.

Some pretty obvious reasons why:

1. The Magic would not want to create a basically unstoppable dynasty for the next 3-4 years.
2. If the Heat actually quit on LeBron, it could turn him into full on Eff-You Mode. On the Magic, he might just explode and hit the ceiling we've always dreamed of. Would the Heat risk missing out on the best play of the best player in the league?

LeBron is the future of the Heat, I don't think it makes sense to trade him.

They could certainly trade Wade, that makes basketball sense. But they wouldn't do it, not when he is the heart and soul of the team.