2012 Picks

[shrink]

If there is no season, it sounds like we will still have a 2012 lottery, and teams will be seeded based on their record over the last three seasons. MIN is the overwhelming #1 spot, and of course, that would give LAC a 25% chance of winning the lottery and getting the top pick in the 2012 draft.

There is one small bright spot though. The UTA pick, that looked like it might have become two second rounders, would become the 18th pick in the 2012 draft.

18. UTA to MIN (Jefferson trade, 7/13/10) 2012: Top 14 protected.
2013: Top 12 protected If not conveyed by 2014 and if UTA 2014 1st rd pick is not within top 9 picks, MIN will have the option to swap 2014 1st rd pick with UTA. If MIN does not receive a first round pick by the 2013 draft and also does not swap 2014 first round picks with UTA, then MIN will receive UTA’s own 2014 second round pick

[cpfsf]

I'm not mad that there's no pick, just not looking forward to the 30+ threads on the general board over this topic.

[B Calrissian]

That is really dumb. Teams that recently got bad are getting screwed. The suns for example.

[Krapinsky]

That is really dumb. Teams that recently got bad are getting screwed. The suns for example.

What about poor Cleveland?

[shrink]

I posted this elsewhere:

If I was to asked to come up with a fair way, it would be the average wins of:

1/6th 2008-09
2/6th 2009-10
3/6th 2010-11

The lottery is one method of bringing parity into a league that often lacks it, because of economics, location, and player-preference. The teams that need a cheap talent infusion the most are the ones who've dominstrated the greatest recent need. Teams in 2008-09 have often changed their fortunes. I would not go specifically by one year, since an injury to a star in one year can change a season.

Also, I would question whether to have a lottery at all. We have one to prevent tanking, but there is no chance for that here. MIN and LAC wouldn't be accused of double-dipping in 2011 and 2012 either. Maybe a lottery adjusts trade value of picks, but there could be a strong case made to just set aside the lottery.

[B Calrissian]

Yeah the Suns definitely are not the only team. They were just the first ones I thought of when reading Shrink's post. Even a team like Charlotte that was a fringe playoff team and now is in full tank mode will be hurting. I guess no teams/cities that the league actually cares about would be hurt by this so it does sound about right. Of course the team that benefits the most is a huge city.

[funkatron101]

It should always be based off of the last three seasons from here on out. That would offer better parity.

[younggunsmn]

I'm having a hard time finding a precedent for this. When the 2004-05 NHL season was cancelled, they had some crappy lottery. They agreed on the CBA on July 13th, and held the draft on July 30th (which is about 6 weeks later than usual). But the point is, they had a signed CBA.

If the current dispute goes through next summer, and there is no signed CBA (and the players union also likely has ceased to exist), I don't think the league would have a draft because of the legal ramifications to their ongoing litigation. Especially if it is still going on when kids go back to college in late August. It would be pretty likely we'd just skip the draft for one year or we'd have a crappy draft full of college seniors and international players. But as long as there is no CBA, I'm assuming there will be no draft and the following year's draft will be loaded.

The nightmare scenario for the wolves is that the season is cancelled and an agreement is reached in time to conduct a draft next summer, where we send the clips a high pick (and a year of protection makes it less likely we see the 1st from Utah).

[horaceworthy]

It's going to suck seeing that pick go to the Clips. All we can do is cross our fingers and hope that the Clippers find a way to botch it. If the Wolves can get Jeremy Lamb or John Henson with the Jazz pick, that would soften the blow a bit.

[Krapinsky]

It's going to suck seeing that pick go to the Clips. All we can do is cross our fingers and hope that the Clippers find a way to botch it. If the Wolves can get Jeremy Lamb or John Henson with the Jazz pick, that would soften the blow a bit.

The thought of adding another PF makes my head spin a little bit.

[The J Rocka]

It's going to suck seeing that pick go to the Clips. All we can do is cross our fingers and hope that the Clippers find a way to botch it. If the Wolves can get Jeremy Lamb or John Henson with the Jazz pick, that would soften the blow a bit.

Jazz pick is top 14 protected and Jeremy Lamb will for sure be in the top 10, maybe even top 5.

[Krapinsky]

I'll bet you Henson goes before Lamb.

[The J Rocka]

Team needs will definitely decide who goes first. If a team with a top 5 pick needs a wing player, it will be down to Barnes-Lamb. I see Davis, Sullinger, Barnes, Lamb, Henson, Drummond(?) all at the top of the draft. Which order they go? I'm not sure yet.

Lamb should be at the top of his position and Henson is sitting behind Davis and Sullinger. Drummond could go in top 5 but after his poor start, we definitely need to see more of him. Maybe Drummond falls and Henson moves above him?

[horaceworthy]

Team needs will definitely decide who goes first. If a team with a top 5 pick needs a wing player, it will be down to Barnes-Lamb. I see Davis, Sullinger, Barnes, Lamb, Henson, Drummond(?) all at the top of the draft. Which order they go? I'm not sure yet.

Lamb should be at the top of his position and Henson is sitting behind Davis and Sullinger. Drummond could go in top 5 but after his poor start, we definitely need to see more of him. Maybe Drummond falls and Henson moves above him?

Last year the first SG didn't come off the board until #11, and the best SG didn't come off the board until #12. I think Lamb's better than Thompson and Burks, but there looks to be a lot of talented size in this draft, and that tends to come off the board early.

There will also likely be a PG or two off the board in the top 10. I could see guys like Kabongo and Kendall Marshall playing their way into the lottery (with Tony Wroten being a dark horse). Then there's combo types like Beal and Rivers to consider. I don't think Barnes will poop the bed enough for Lamb's stock to surpass his. There are also a couple younger, taller wings to consider in Gilchrist and Miller.

Right now DX has him at #13 on their big board, Chad Ford has him at #12. I think he's better than that, but I wouldn't be surprised if he were drafted later than that. Just looking at the DX big board, even though he's #13, there are still 6 players ranked below him that I wouldn't be surprised if they were drafted in the lottery. There also aren't too many people ranked above them I would expect to fall out of the lottery.

It's a strong draft, I hope the Wolves can get Utah's invite to the party. I think Lamb's a stud, and right now it's semi-conceivable he's available in the event the Wolves get the Utah pick, so I'm allowing myself some optimism. I'd still be happy with a guy like Beal or Young, and I'm sure there will be a couple intriguing foreign prospects that emerge in that range. I'm also intrigued by the youtube potential of Rubio throwing lobs to Rodney Williams.

[Klomp]

I'm also intrigued by the youtube potential of Rubio throwing lobs to Rodney Williams.

I was just thinking about that too

[The J Rocka]

Team needs will definitely decide who goes first. If a team with a top 5 pick needs a wing player, it will be down to Barnes-Lamb. I see Davis, Sullinger, Barnes, Lamb, Henson, Drummond(?) all at the top of the draft. Which order they go? I'm not sure yet.

Lamb should be at the top of his position and Henson is sitting behind Davis and Sullinger. Drummond could go in top 5 but after his poor start, we definitely need to see more of him. Maybe Drummond falls and Henson moves above him?

Last year the first SG didn't come off the board until #11

A lot of the teams that picked PF/C or PG in this past draft will probably still be bad and will look to add a wing player in the draft. Clippers could go Barnes, Cavs could go with Lamb to pair with Irving & Thompson, same with Jazz, etc.

[Krapinsky]

Even if we don't get the Utah pick, our cap space and the cap friendly contracts of Miller and Webster could invite us to the 2012 draft party.

[horaceworthy]

A lot of the teams that picked PF/C or PG in this past draft will probably still be bad and will look to add a wing player in the draft. Clippers could go Barnes, Cavs could go with Lamb to pair with Irving & Thompson, same with Jazz, etc.

Drafting size in the past doesn't necessarily preclude a team from drafting size in the future. The last time a PG didn't go top 5 was 2008. Before that it was 2003.

Clippers could go Barnes, Cavs could go with Miller, Gilchrist or Beal to pair with Irving and Thompson. The Jazz have two young wings in Hayward and Burks, they'd probably be the team most likely to go PG. Lamb and Barnes aren't the only two options available on the wing, unless the age limit gets pushed back.

I'm not telling you Lamb can't go top 5, or that there's much more than a Lloyd Christmas/Mary Swanson chance he'd be available in the event Utah squeaks into the playoffs, but I am telling you there's a chance.

[horaceworthy]

Even if we don't get the Utah pick, our cap space and the cap friendly contracts of Miller and Webster could invite us to the 2012 draft party.

That's the spirit!

In regards to the Wolves drafting another PF spinning heads, I'm with you for the most part, but I'd be fine with it if it were a guy with the potential to be a game changer on the defensive end.

[The J Rocka]

A lot of the teams that picked PF/C or PG in this past draft will probably still be bad and will look to add a wing player in the draft. Clippers could go Barnes, Cavs could go with Lamb to pair with Irving & Thompson, same with Jazz, etc.

Drafting size in the past doesn't necessarily preclude a team from drafting size in the future. The last time a PG didn't go top 5 was 2008. Before that it was 2003.

Clippers could go Barnes, Cavs could go with Miller, Gilchrist or Beal to pair with Irving and Thompson. The Jazz have two young wings in Hayward and Burks, they'd probably be the team most likely to go PG. Lamb and Barnes aren't the only two options available on the wing, unless the age limit gets pushed back.

I'm not telling you Lamb can't go top 5, or that there's much more than a Lloyd Christmas/Mary Swanson chance he'd be available in the event Utah squeaks into the playoffs, but I am telling you there's a chance.

Miller and Gilchrist could all go ahead but with all the hype of Lamb from last year and his strong start this year, I don't see how anybody but Barnes possibly could go before Lamb. Plenty of basketball to be played.

As for the Jazz they could go PG (possibly Teague). Assuming they will pass on all the bigs with Favors, Kanter, Millsap Big Al, etc. they can either trade down, take Teague high, or look to upgrade Burks or Hayward with Lamb or Barnes (who I wouldn't pass up on if I have Burks and Hayward). More than likely with Drummond's stock dropping, teams like Clippers or Cavs could go Lamb or Barnes high because as of now they are both clearly the top wings of the draft.