Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread III

[ballboy_forever]

Bumped because it was lost in the Ponchos-Tikus food fight.

[quote="ballboy_forever"]Here is a different take on what's going on. The two sides are much further apart than you think. And the players did not make nearly as much of a concession as advertised. They never really agreed to a 50:50 split - although they would like you to think that they did. I base this on the fact that they are fighting tooth and nail against any method that would enforce the 50:50 split. No to salary rollbacks. No to a proportionate reduction in max contracts. No to a reduction in the rookie scale. And especially no to any higher escrow than 8% and no to any mechanism that would allow the teams to recoup if the escrow was not sufficient to reduce the actual salaries to 50%. This is the same game they played before. Let me explain. If total salaries are 57% like they have been all but the past year when some teams stripped down for the big free agent frenzy, the 8% escrow would only reduce the players' take to about 52.5%. if they reach salaries totaling 60%, an 8% escrow would only reduce it to about 55%.

The owners know this and that is why they don't give on "system". I am sure that if the players offered a 15% escrow they could have all the system changes they wanted.

Based on this I don't see any way that further negotiations will go anywhere. There is only one way to save the season. The player leadership must admit that they made a mistake not putting the proposal to a vote. It's not too late to say that on further reflection this is too big a decision to take without having a vote of all the players. They need to have a SECRET ballot asking the players to choose

1. Continue the legal process

or

2. Authorize the leadership to reform the union and accept the proposal.

They don't have to release the actual numbers. If it's 1 the players are in a much stronger position - though still misguided. If it's 2 we'll have ball by Christmas.[/quote]

[Reignman]

Any team that wins in the playoffs has to beat the big guns, JRoc. The Blue Jays and Orioles wouldn't compete in any division. They might squeak into the playoffs if they lucked into being in an awful division, but to be the best, you've got to beat the best. The thing about MLB is that they've got a very limited playoffs and it's very tough to get in. That has its negatives, since good isn't good enough, but it also has its positives since big teams don't generate way more revenue due to lots of playoff dates other teams don't get.

I don't agree, baseball is a weird sport like that. Once you get into the MLB playoffs it's more of a crapshoot than the other leagues.

The big guns typically make it to the playoffs but then it opens up.

This is very different from the NBA where you expect to see the big guns sitting there in every round.

[I_Like_Dirt]

(a) The big guns in LA, Chicago and Boston didn't do so hot this past season.

(b) If you took the top 4 teams from each conference like baseball does, you'd have the Spurs, Thunder, Lakers and Mavs, and Bulls, Celtics, Heat and Magic. How is that not a crap shoot?

[5DOM]

Moneyball on baseball playoffs being a crapshoot:
http://books.google.ca/books?id=l3l8zCu ... &q&f=false

The worst team in the game having 15% chance to upset the best in a five-game playoffs series does make it look like a crapshoot.

[RapTelligence]

From wiretap

DeShawn Stevenson spoke bluntly about what he perceives to be the failings of Billy Hunter in bargaining with the league, and said he does not think there will be an NBA season.

“For me, personally, I don’t think there will be a season,” Stevenson said. “Right now there is just a lot of bad blood and [the owners] keep putting offers out that we’re rejecting. So we’re not going anywhere.”

“I felt like we should have decertified in July,” Stevenson said. “I feel like Billy Hunter is doing a horrible job because basically now [the owners] know our hand. The media knows our hand.”

[Reignman]

From wiretap

DeShawn Stevenson spoke bluntly about what he perceives to be the failings of Billy Hunter in bargaining with the league, and said he does not think there will be an NBA season.

“For me, personally, I don’t think there will be a season,” Stevenson said. “Right now there is just a lot of bad blood and [the owners] keep putting offers out that we’re rejecting. So we’re not going anywhere.”

“I felt like we should have decertified in July,” Stevenson said. “I feel like Billy Hunter is doing a horrible job because basically now [the owners] know our hand. The media knows our hand.”

Yup, nobody believes the players are truly out for anti-trust litigation. In fact, their lawyers, former union head and many players have publicly stated that they are hoping they get a deal out of this soon.

[Reignman]

Moneyball on baseball playoffs being a crapshoot:
http://books.google.ca/books?id=l3l8zCu ... &q&f=false

The worst team in the game having 15% chance to upset the best in a five-game playoffs series does make it look like a crapshoot.

Now imagine that in the NBA, last season, do the Cavs have a 15% chance at beating the Mavs/Heat in a 7 game series? LOL. They'd be lucky if they had a 1% chance.

Upsets are rare in the NBA, very rare.

[lucky777s]

Back in the early 80s my dad had to renew his mortgage and the rate was a ridiculous 17% or something like it. His previous mortgage was probably around 10%, maybe less. He couldn't just go to the bank and say 'that isn't fair' and say he was willing to go up to 14% but no farther - that the bank would have to give up some too.

Fast forward to 2008/2009 and millions of U.S. homeowners saw their gimmicky mortgage rates re-set to historically low rates. But they still couldn't make the payments as they bought too much house and never had the income to support it. They say 'hey, not fair. we could afford the original payments at 1000 per month. We can't go any higher than 1200.' Bank says, buddy that doesn't even cover your monthly interest so your mortgage would actually be going up while your house price plummets. Again, no protection for the little guy from normal market forces.

In both cases the last deal signed was irrelevant to the new deal being negotiated. Market forces were different.

But the NBA guys, most of whom are grossly overpaid millionaires, want protection from legitimate market forces impacting the economy and their contract offers. Something about that stinks. And this is why they will never get the support of most fans who have to deal with economic reality every day.

[J-Roc]

Baseball has a quirk where the chances of your team winning go way up or down depending on your starting pitcher. 7 game series are tough enough, but they even have 5 game division series.

[Rhettmatic]

WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
NBA and players resumed talks on Tuesday to try and end the lockout before the cancellation of Christmas games, two sources told Y! Sports.

WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
Talks were expected to continue today, sources said, and one league source tells Y!: "We should know more by later this evening."

[Consequence]

Game on, I guess.

[Consequence]

WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
Derek Fisher isn't a part of the talks now, sources say.

[Reignman]

Back in the early 80s my dad had to renew his mortgage and the rate was a ridiculous 17% or something like it. His previous mortgage was probably around 10%, maybe less. He couldn't just go to the bank and say 'that isn't fair' and say he was willing to go up to 14% but no farther - that the bank would have to give up some too.

Fast forward to 2008/2009 and millions of U.S. homeowners saw their gimmicky mortgage rates re-set to historically low rates. But they still couldn't make the payments as they bought too much house and never had the income to support it. They say 'hey, not fair. we could afford the original payments at 1000 per month. We can't go any higher than 1200.' Bank says, buddy that doesn't even cover your monthly interest so your mortgage would actually be going up while your house price plummets. Again, no protection for the little guy from normal market forces.

In both cases the last deal signed was irrelevant to the new deal being negotiated. Market forces were different.

But the NBA guys, most of whom are grossly overpaid millionaires, want protection from legitimate market forces impacting the economy and their contract offers. Something about that stinks. And this is why they will never get the support of most fans who have to deal with economic reality every day.

And basketball players have the option of going to play in other leagues. They won't make any where near what they make in the NBA but hey, market value and all.

[J-Roc]

WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
Derek Fisher isn't a part of the talks now, sources say.

Even if it's for show, it helps give everyone a sense of progression for certain people to have less involvement, or in certain cases more.

They need Sonny Weems to Skype in.

[Fairview4Life]

Back in the early 80s my dad had to renew his mortgage and the rate was a ridiculous 17% or something like it. His previous mortgage was probably around 10%, maybe less. He couldn't just go to the bank and say 'that isn't fair' and say he was willing to go up to 14% but no farther - that the bank would have to give up some too.

Fast forward to 2008/2009 and millions of U.S. homeowners saw their gimmicky mortgage rates re-set to historically low rates. But they still couldn't make the payments as they bought too much house and never had the income to support it. They say 'hey, not fair. we could afford the original payments at 1000 per month. We can't go any higher than 1200.' Bank says, buddy that doesn't even cover your monthly interest so your mortgage would actually be going up while your house price plummets. Again, no protection for the little guy from normal market forces.

In both cases the last deal signed was irrelevant to the new deal being negotiated. Market forces were different.

But the NBA guys, most of whom are grossly overpaid millionaires, want protection from legitimate market forces impacting the economy and their contract offers. Something about that stinks. And this is why they will never get the support of most fans who have to deal with economic reality every day.

And basketball players have the option of going to play in other leagues. They won't make any where near what they make in the NBA but hey, market value and all.

You realize that the NBA is a legal cartel specifically because they can negotiate with a union, right? Without a collectively bargaining union protecting them from anti trust law, the league cannot protect itself from "legitimate market forces". They need to present an offer that the union feels is better than what they would get in an actual free market system, otherwise the union can disband and everyone can fend for themselves. Then the league just has to not do anything illegal (like collectively cap salaries, or setup other trade restrictions, etc.). Just like in every other business. The argument that the players can just go play elsewhere is disingenuous and misses the point. It isn't about going elsewhere to another league or continent. It's about going elsewhere to another team, since they are all supposedly competing with each other under antitrust law. The Pacers can say that as a team they are capping salary at 50,000,000/year. If the players don't like it, they can go to the Knicks, for example. The Pacers and Knicks can't just setup a rule between them that 50,000,000 is this years salary limit, without a union. They don't get to keep their exemption.

The players are now offering the league a choice. They are saying the league can pay them enough money as a group (or setup enough rules in the system to placate them) in order for them to remain a collective bargaining unit, or they can start negotiating as individual teams with individual players. There's going to be a negotiated settlement since no one wants to wait 3 years for the courts to handle things, but the owners as a group are not allowed to just unilaterally setup their own rules for the league. They need to give up enough to the players to get the cost certainty they're looking for, or they can run their businesses like every other non union shop in the country.

[floppymoose]

Back in the early 80s my dad had to renew his mortgage and the rate was a ridiculous 17% or something like it. His previous mortgage was probably around 10%, maybe less. He couldn't just go to the bank and say 'that isn't fair' and say he was willing to go up to 14% but no farther - that the bank would have to give up some too.

It's ironic to me that you go through this whole spiel to set up the concept of the market rate, and then get it wrong at the end by saying the players are deluded. It's the owners that aren't paying market rate. Market rate in the 4 major leagues this century has been about 54% to the players. If the owners had been willing to pay market rate, no games would have been lost.

[ranger001]

Back in the early 80s my dad had to renew his mortgage and the rate was a ridiculous 17% or something like it. His previous mortgage was probably around 10%, maybe less. He couldn't just go to the bank and say 'that isn't fair' and say he was willing to go up to 14% but no farther - that the bank would have to give up some too.

It's ironic to me that you go through this whole spiel to set up the concept of the market rate, and then get it wrong at the end by saying the players are deluded. It's the owners that aren't paying market rate. Market rate in the 4 major leagues this century has been about 54% to the players. If the owners had been willing to pay market rate, no games would have been lost.

54% is not really market rate, at least not in the NHL and NBA. Its more like the rate set by ruinous competition.

[notic519]

Back in the early 80s my dad had to renew his mortgage and the rate was a ridiculous 17% or something like it. His previous mortgage was probably around 10%, maybe less. He couldn't just go to the bank and say 'that isn't fair' and say he was willing to go up to 14% but no farther - that the bank would have to give up some too.

It's ironic to me that you go through this whole spiel to set up the concept of the market rate, and then get it wrong at the end by saying the players are deluded. It's the owners that aren't paying market rate. Market rate in the 4 major leagues this century has been about 54% to the players. If the owners had been willing to pay market rate, no games would have been lost.

I'm pretty sure you have the concept wrong. Right now the economy is crap. Heck the world economy is crap with all this sovereign debt crisis going on in the EU. You take a 54% number (which I'm sure you just took out from your ass) over the last century and apply that to the present which makes no sense since the economy is in a totally different state of health.

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the NFL just agree on a new CBA? Enlighten me as to what % the players agreed on. I might be off my rocker but didn't they agree to a deal that was less than 50%? So taking this fact into consideration I could argue that the current rate for players is at most 50%.

Right now players are significantly overpaid. The small 1% of the league who are superstars could definitely make more money if the NBA had a free market system. In that case however the average player or the fringe player would take a substantial pay cut. I'm basing this argument on the fact that teams have budgets and can only spend up to a certain point so if they throw X amount of dollars to one player, the amount they can spend on other players decreases.

The Union should be fighting for the general well being of ALL players. Not just the ones who already make a ton and are fighting for more.

[notic519]

^^ Just in case you didn't follow the NFL CBA negotiations they agreed to a 53% owners 47% players. Previous CBA was close to 50/50.

[Fairview4Life]

I'm pretty sure you have the concept wrong. Right now the economy is crap. Heck the world economy is crap with all this sovereign debt crisis going on in the EU. You take a 54% number (which I'm sure you just took out from your ass) over the last century and apply that to the present which makes no sense since the economy is in a totally different state of health.

What does the world economy have to do with the NBA? NBA teams are generating record revenues, and their record ratings are driving huge local TV deals and soon to be anew record national TV deal. The NBA's economy is stronger than ever.