2012 NBA Draft

[hands11]

One thing to consider - even if they do up the age limit for draft eligibility - it might not be for the 2012 draft. My guess is that they would wait a year - so as not to provoke lawsuits from this year's outstanding college frosh who've already assumed they would be in the NBA next year.

Good point. If they do get it included, which I hope they do, when will it kick in.

But just wondering. What would be the law suit for these players if they couldn't make it in this year vs the following year. What different discussion would they have made. I guess they could have decided to come out this last draft. But who would be on that list ? Barnes wanted to stay in school and he would be eligible anyway. Same with Perry Jones.

Actually, maybe I am missing something but wouldn't anyone who is a sophomore this year be eligible and anyone who is a freshman...they wouldn't have been able to enter last year anyway.

As what you are saying CCJ

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... tmas-wish/

It will come down to who wins. The minority hardliners on both sides who are the slash and burn types stuck in rigid ideology or the people who are willing to compromise a plan that makes sense for the majority and the sport as a whole in a fair way.

[pancakes3]

The cautionary tale of Shelden Williams doesn't warn of Sullinger. Sully's a 6'8 offensive prodigy - a real throwback to back-to-the-basket wizardry (heh heh). The skills that Sullinger brings to the table are completely different than what Shelden (allegedly) brought. Sully is no defensive enforcer. I mean, Sully gets more steals than blocks! Anyone who can't top 1bpg in college is no enforcer, much less landlord.

No, Sully is more closely related to the likes of other Dukies - Brand and Boozer. I think Boozer is especially apt since Brand is a markedly better defender than both. Furthermore, I firmly believe that if Nick Collison can stick around the league, Sully can definitely do so - and at a late lotto spot? It's not bad.

The point is, Sully is a scorer without any sacrifice on the boards whereas Shelden is a hustle man whose stiffness makes hustling pretty difficult. If I had to make an analogy, I would say the Maryland Williams - Jordan - would do better to heed the cautionary tale of Shelden Williams and take up Yoga during the lockout to improve his lateral quickness. I think both Williams's will stick around the league (shelden already has) based on their rebounding skills alone. JOrdan's a bigger guy with better rebounding skills. I don't see any reason why he can't carve out a niche in the league.

I think a smart, talented, legitimate post scorer would wreck havoc in the league. A low post player creates spacing, draws fouls, and slow the game down when you've got that 5-7 pt lead and you just want to maintain and wait out the half. Those are important aspects of the game that I feel like is being a little neglected, by professional players/coaches no less! Case in point, there's 2 minutes left in the 2Q, and most teams run ISO with their lead guard. Why? That lead guard dribbles the clock down to 8-12 seconds, makes his move and either gets to the rim or launches an off-balanced jumper. 2 problems. 1 - your big men are under the basket trying to get a rebound and not in position to get back on transition. 2 (more importantly) your premier perimeter player is either in the stands or on the floor and unable to get back into transition. Situations like that give up transition buckets routinely and you watch leads get whittled down quickly. Lebron's Cavs were pretty susceptible to this since their lead guard was also their PF. Sure every 10-12 games or so you'll get a LBJ chase-down block but more often than not it's a transition bucket.

Just saying... low post scoring presence maintains the integrity of the transition defense, draws fouls, and creates space for kick-out-knock-down 3's.

[fishercob]

One thing to consider - even if they do up the age limit for draft eligibility - it might not be for the 2012 draft. My guess is that they would wait a year - so as not to provoke lawsuits from this year's outstanding college frosh who've already assumed they would be in the NBA next year.

The current age limit was put into place in June of 2005 when the CBA was ratified. The next draft (2006) was the first to feature the age limit. I could see it going either way in terms of when the age limit is instituted.

[closg00]

I appreciate the format of this Top-50 college player ranking, the game-to-game stats are helpful.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/9405 ... lls-week-2

[REDardWIZskin]

^^ thats a nice list, i'd like to keep and eye on terrance ross for a potential 2nd round pick, He's got a good stroke and some pretty good athletic ability and a reported long wingspan, not sure about his defense though

[7-Day Dray]

^^ thats a nice list, i'd like to keep and eye on terrance ross for a potential 2nd round pick, He's got a good stroke and some pretty good athletic ability and a reported long wingspan, not sure about his defense though

I'm a fan of Ross too. Prototype body for a 2, good stroke, good athleticism, and a noticeably imrpoved handle from last year. But there's no way he falls to the 2nd round. There's talks about him going in the lottery right now.

[Dat2U]

The cautionary tale of Shelden Williams doesn't warn of Sullinger. Sully's a 6'8 offensive prodigy - a real throwback to back-to-the-basket wizardry (heh heh). The skills that Sullinger brings to the table are completely different than what Shelden (allegedly) brought. Sully is no defensive enforcer. I mean, Sully gets more steals than blocks! Anyone who can't top 1bpg in college is no enforcer, much less landlord.

No, Sully is more closely related to the likes of other Dukies - Brand and Boozer. I think Boozer is especially apt since Brand is a markedly better defender than both. Furthermore, I firmly believe that if Nick Collison can stick around the league, Sully can definitely do so - and at a late lotto spot? It's not bad.

The point is, Sully is a scorer without any sacrifice on the boards whereas Shelden is a hustle man whose stiffness makes hustling pretty difficult. If I had to make an analogy, I would say the Maryland Williams - Jordan - would do better to heed the cautionary tale of Shelden Williams and take up Yoga during the lockout to improve his lateral quickness. I think both Williams's will stick around the league (shelden already has) based on their rebounding skills alone. JOrdan's a bigger guy with better rebounding skills. I don't see any reason why he can't carve out a niche in the league.

I think a smart, talented, legitimate post scorer would wreck havoc in the league. A low post player creates spacing, draws fouls, and slow the game down when you've got that 5-7 pt lead and you just want to maintain and wait out the half. Those are important aspects of the game that I feel like is being a little neglected, by professional players/coaches no less! Case in point, there's 2 minutes left in the 2Q, and most teams run ISO with their lead guard. Why? That lead guard dribbles the clock down to 8-12 seconds, makes his move and either gets to the rim or launches an off-balanced jumper. 2 problems. 1 - your big men are under the basket trying to get a rebound and not in position to get back on transition. 2 (more importantly) your premier perimeter player is either in the stands or on the floor and unable to get back into transition. Situations like that give up transition buckets routinely and you watch leads get whittled down quickly. Lebron's Cavs were pretty susceptible to this since their lead guard was also their PF. Sure every 10-12 games or so you'll get a LBJ chase-down block but more often than not it's a transition bucket.

Just saying... low post scoring presence maintains the integrity of the transition defense, draws fouls, and creates space for kick-out-knock-down 3's.

Yeah, the Shelden Williams comparison wasn't a good one but I do wonder if Sully's shortcomings aren't fatal in terms of being a real impactful basketball player. I think one of the better comparisons for Sully is Kevin Love. Love is a wonderfully efficient and productive player at the NBA level, but defensively, Love's shortcomings are so apparent, one must ask the question can you win (and especially win in the playoffs) with Love starting in your frontcourt.

Sully is going to have the same defensive issues Love has. And as productive as Love is, he's had viritually no impact on the Wolves misrerable won-loss record. Which begs the question, can you win with Sully as your starting PF?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If the Wizards had Kevin Love instead of Andray Blatche, IMO they would be a 45-50 team right now with no other changes to the roster.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eke01.html

http://www.82games.com/1011/1011MIN.HTM

Dat, numbers don't tell everything but Love posted a PER of 24.3. He led the NBA in both defensive rebound percentage and total rebound percentage. He averaged 20 and 15 with a FT percentage of 85%. He is 23 years old. His Win Share per 48 was eighth in the league behind Lebron, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler, Dwyane Wade, and Dirk Nowitzki. (League MVP Derrick Rose finished just behind Love in Win Shares per 48).

Assume that Love is the worst defender in the league (and he may not be too far from that). Also, that he gets more than a fair share of his shot attempts blocked. Assume that he's TERRIBLE getting back in transition defense. All of that said, Love is still perhaps the best rebounder in the league and he's a great shooter for a big. Love also draws a ton of fouls. With Love opposing bigs at least have to work hard, whether he's at PF or C.

You can win with someone like Love, but the team around him needs to overcompensate for his weak areas. On a team like the Wizards he would have a shotblocker in McGee and a super athlete at PG in Wall.

This team would go from bad to very good right away with Love because of his rebounding and overall efficient play. Think of the Grizzlies being tough even with Zach Randolph. That's the kind of player Love is, too.

[dangermouse]

I can see how Love would work with us, but we would have to overpay to get him probably... Minny fans would want to give away another great PF named Kevin for peanuts...

[Dat2U]

If the Wizards had Kevin Love instead of Andray Blatche, IMO they would be a 45-50 team right now with no other changes to the roster.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eke01.html

http://www.82games.com/1011/1011MIN.HTM

Dat, numbers don't tell everything but Love posted a PER of 24.3. He led the NBA in both defensive rebound percentage and total rebound percentage. He averaged 20 and 15 with a FT percentage of 85%. He is 23 years old. His Win Share per 48 was eighth in the league behind Lebron, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler, Dwyane Wade, and Dirk Nowitzki. (League MVP Derrick Rose finished just behind Love in Win Shares per 48).

Assume that Love is the worst defender in the league (and he may not be too far from that). Also, that he gets more than a fair share of his shot attempts blocked. Assume that he's TERRIBLE getting back in transition defense. All of that said, Love is still perhaps the best rebounder in the league and he's a great shooter for a big. Love also draws a ton of fouls. With Love opposing bigs at least have to work hard, whether he's at PF or C.

You can win with someone like Love, but the team around him needs to overcompensate for his weak areas. On a team like the Wizards he would have a shotblocker in McGee and a super athlete at PG in Wall.

This team would go from bad to very good right away with Love because of his rebounding and overall efficient play. Think of the Grizzlies being tough even with Zach Randolph. That's the kind of player Love is, too.

I don't think there is anyway you can get around it. It's the whole 'Antawn Jamison effect' to me. Where one of your most productive players is also the main reason why your team can't win in the playoffs. Love's defensive deficiencies can't be hidden because of the position he plays.

You need your bigs to be able to contest shots. Kevin Love is simply terrible at this. In fact at times he appears to put rebounding over his defensive responsibilities, cheating off his man to seek out position in the post in hopes of grabbing another board. Outside of Dwight Howard, I don't know what big you could pair Love with and not get exposed down low. It's certainly not McGee who has a ton of issues defensively of his own.

[montestewart]

^
Speaking of "cheating off his man," between Love's rebound-centric mentality and McGee's block-centric mentality pulling them away from their assignments, there could be a lot of open lanes through the paint in that pairing. McGee's seemed to be making some (very small) strides in that department toward the end of last year, but I'd have to see more of that (or a Nivek chart or something) to be sure it was a trend rather than an illusion. Even then, that duo would probably need a third with strong defense to back them up, and once all were signed, that's a lot of money gone.

[LyricalRico]

Yeah, I wouldn't pair McGee with Love. And even speaking of Love in a vacuum, the overall price is probably going to be too high once you factor in the cost of acquiring him plus the impending contract.

[Ruzious]

If the Wizards had Kevin Love instead of Andray Blatche, IMO they would be a 45-50 team right now with no other changes to the roster.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eke01.html

http://www.82games.com/1011/1011MIN.HTM

Dat, numbers don't tell everything but Love posted a PER of 24.3. He led the NBA in both defensive rebound percentage and total rebound percentage. He averaged 20 and 15 with a FT percentage of 85%. He is 23 years old. His Win Share per 48 was eighth in the league behind Lebron, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler, Dwyane Wade, and Dirk Nowitzki. (League MVP Derrick Rose finished just behind Love in Win Shares per 48).

Assume that Love is the worst defender in the league (and he may not be too far from that). Also, that he gets more than a fair share of his shot attempts blocked. Assume that he's TERRIBLE getting back in transition defense. All of that said, Love is still perhaps the best rebounder in the league and he's a great shooter for a big. Love also draws a ton of fouls. With Love opposing bigs at least have to work hard, whether he's at PF or C.

You can win with someone like Love, but the team around him needs to overcompensate for his weak areas. On a team like the Wizards he would have a shotblocker in McGee and a super athlete at PG in Wall.

This team would go from bad to very good right away with Love because of his rebounding and overall efficient play. Think of the Grizzlies being tough even with Zach Randolph. That's the kind of player Love is, too.

Am I right in guessing that your point isn't that the Wiz should acquire Love? It's that if Sullinger is relatively the same as Love, then it could be a very good thing for the Wiz to draft Sullinger. Or was I reading the wrong way between the lines?

[Dat2U]

Drafting Sullinger would certainly improve the Wizards win total. But does his lack of presenece of the defensive end create bigger problems down the road?

I'd be focused more on acquiring a two way big and opposed to a very productive big with major defensive questions.

[JWizmentality]

Sooo, seeing as every team will have the same record come the 2012 draft, do we all get the same chance at the #1 pick.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't think there is anyway you can get around it. It's the whole 'Antawn Jamison effect' to me. Where one of your most productive players is also the main reason why your team can't win in the playoffs. Love's defensive deficiencies can't be hidden because of the position he plays.

You need your bigs to be able to contest shots. Kevin Love is simply terrible at this. In fact at times he appears to put rebounding over his defensive responsibilities, cheating off his man to seek out position in the post in hopes of grabbing another board. Outside of Dwight Howard, I don't know what big you could pair Love with and not get exposed down low. It's certainly not McGee who has a ton of issues defensively of his own.

Per-36 minutes career numbers reveal there is a big difference between Jamison and Love.

Antawn Jamison: 19.4 PTS (16.4 FGA, 4.7 FTA), 7.9 TRB, 1.7 AST
Kevin Love: 18.2 PTS (13.3 FGA, 6.3 FTA), 14.1 TRB, 2.3 AST

If Love were on the Wizards his teammates would likely be: Wall, Young, Singleton, and McGee. Each of those guys are longer and better athletes than who is playing beside in Minnesota.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If the Wizards had Kevin Love instead of Andray Blatche, IMO they would be a 45-50 team right now with no other changes to the roster.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eke01.html

http://www.82games.com/1011/1011MIN.HTM

Dat, numbers don't tell everything but Love posted a PER of 24.3. He led the NBA in both defensive rebound percentage and total rebound percentage. He averaged 20 and 15 with a FT percentage of 85%. He is 23 years old. His Win Share per 48 was eighth in the league behind Lebron, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler, Dwyane Wade, and Dirk Nowitzki. (League MVP Derrick Rose finished just behind Love in Win Shares per 48).

Assume that Love is the worst defender in the league (and he may not be too far from that). Also, that he gets more than a fair share of his shot attempts blocked. Assume that he's TERRIBLE getting back in transition defense. All of that said, Love is still perhaps the best rebounder in the league and he's a great shooter for a big. Love also draws a ton of fouls. With Love opposing bigs at least have to work hard, whether he's at PF or C.

You can win with someone like Love, but the team around him needs to overcompensate for his weak areas. On a team like the Wizards he would have a shotblocker in McGee and a super athlete at PG in Wall.

This team would go from bad to very good right away with Love because of his rebounding and overall efficient play. Think of the Grizzlies being tough even with Zach Randolph. That's the kind of player Love is, too.

Am I right in guessing that your point isn't that the Wiz should acquire Love? It's that if Sullinger is relatively the same as Love, then it could be a very good thing for the Wiz to draft Sullinger. Or was I reading the wrong way between the lines?

Ruz, I would "love" to see the Wizards acquire Love.

I do not think Sullinger is relatively the same as Love. He's not as good as Kevin Love. Sullinger is probably slightly quicker and has a bit more bounce. He''ll score more efficiently than Love. Kevin Love is a freakishly good rebounder and a terrific outlet passer. I don't think Sullinger is nearly as proficient on the boards.

I expect Sullinger will be somewhere between Boozer and Patrick Patterson. He will be a big time scorer and a decent to good rebounder.

[REDardWIZskin]

I'm watching the KU vs Duke game... i have 2 words for you all.... Thomas Robinson.... that is all. He's shown range, put the ball on the floor and is the best athlete on the floor. Saw Kentucky Highlights and Davis is impressive as well but the new cba puts a rule in that doesnt allow 1 yr players to declare then that leaves us with, T Jone, P Jones, Sullinger, Barnes, Lamb and Robinson. I think i would opt for Robinson if i had to choose between him and sullinger.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm watching the KU vs Duke game... i have 2 words for you all.... Thomas Robinson.... that is all. He's shown range, put the ball on the floor and is the best athlete on the floor. Saw Kentucky Highlights and Davis is impressive as well but the new cba puts a rule in that doesnt allow 1 yr players to declare then that leaves us with, T Jone, P Jones, Sullinger, Barnes, Lamb and Robinson. I think i would opt for Robinson if i had to choose between him and sullinger.

Saw the game. The dude is a straight BEAST. Did some research on him. He's from DC (as was Josh Selby). He's a kid you have to root for considering what he's been through.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... n-magazine

Over the summer, Thomas was a workaholic. He wouldn't take a day off and was the most electric player at the Amar'e Stoudemire Skills Academy, outplaying even Ohio State's Jared Sullinger. "He has the speed of Kobe and a body like LeBron's," Markieff says. "Sky's the limit."

"I would never say he needs to leave for the NBA," Self says, "but I hope Thomas is able to leave. I hope this is his last year at the University of Kansas. Selfishly I want him to stay. We would win more games. But it needs to be his last year."

Now a 6'9", 237-pound junior, Thomas is no longer a sixth man. In a preseason poll, he was voted first-team All-America by CBSSports.com. Some NBA scouts are even predicting he could be the No. 1 overall pick in the next draft.

Thomas Robinson is a bit like Amare, for sure. He is a very strong finisher and a guy who I think could/will have a better pro career than Sullinger--but it's early to say that.

[Ruzious]

If the Wizards had Kevin Love instead of Andray Blatche, IMO they would be a 45-50 team right now with no other changes to the roster.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eke01.html

http://www.82games.com/1011/1011MIN.HTM

Dat, numbers don't tell everything but Love posted a PER of 24.3. He led the NBA in both defensive rebound percentage and total rebound percentage. He averaged 20 and 15 with a FT percentage of 85%. He is 23 years old. His Win Share per 48 was eighth in the league behind Lebron, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler, Dwyane Wade, and Dirk Nowitzki. (League MVP Derrick Rose finished just behind Love in Win Shares per 48).

Assume that Love is the worst defender in the league (and he may not be too far from that). Also, that he gets more than a fair share of his shot attempts blocked. Assume that he's TERRIBLE getting back in transition defense. All of that said, Love is still perhaps the best rebounder in the league and he's a great shooter for a big. Love also draws a ton of fouls. With Love opposing bigs at least have to work hard, whether he's at PF or C.

You can win with someone like Love, but the team around him needs to overcompensate for his weak areas. On a team like the Wizards he would have a shotblocker in McGee and a super athlete at PG in Wall.

This team would go from bad to very good right away with Love because of his rebounding and overall efficient play. Think of the Grizzlies being tough even with Zach Randolph. That's the kind of player Love is, too.

Am I right in guessing that your point isn't that the Wiz should acquire Love? It's that if Sullinger is relatively the same as Love, then it could be a very good thing for the Wiz to draft Sullinger. Or was I reading the wrong way between the lines?

Ruz, I would "love" to see the Wizards acquire Love.

I do not think Sullinger is relatively the same as Love. He's not as good as Kevin Love. Sullinger is probably slightly quicker and has a bit more bounce. He''ll score more efficiently than Love. Kevin Love is a freakishly good rebounder and a terrific outlet passer. I don't think Sullinger is nearly as proficient on the boards.

I expect Sullinger will be somewhere between Boozer and Patrick Patterson. He will be a big time scorer and a decent to good rebounder.

Ok, I was reading too much between the lines. While I agree with everything you said about Love, I have to agree with the view that acquiring him would most likely be cost prohibitive - McGee plus the 2012 1st plus trinkets. I concur with the view that Love has to be teamed with a smart quality defensive-oriented big - basically a guy like Ibaka or a younger Chandler/Haywood without the huge contracts - and guys like that are so hard to find.

I concur that Boozer is a very good comp to Sullinger - though I like Sullinger's intangibles better. When Boozer tricked Cleveland and left them empty-handed (He should be considered a villian in Cleveland; not Lebron.) early in his career, I think that really damaged his kharma. Everything I read about Sullinger is that he's a great kid with leadership qualities - and he's really devoted to being the best he can be. Like Love, he's got a body type prone to high body fat percentage, but it's obvious that he's been working at improving.